UES 3BR Coops Minimum ASKING price stabilizing at $1.4M ?

NYCQuant, are you Carnegie, or maybe Uppereast?

There was a long involved thread about this yesterday.

I just don't have it in me to do this again.

Things getting better? thread.

aboutready: could you please point me to that thread (when you get a chance of course :)

That's kind of funny. I've had a sick kid for over a week. I'm getting sores from sitting at my desk for so long. I'm reading a good book (Russo, Bridge of Sighs), but clearly I should be using more of my time more productively.

that's not a good book---that's a great book. just gets better and better as you read on...the kind of book that you never want to end...

I love Russo. I'd be hard pressed to pick a favorite, but The Risk Pool is way up there.

OP - You're talking the smallest 3BR I assume - the ones that are 1100-1300 s.f. and therefore have quite small bedroom and/or not a spacious living room. $1.4m is still over 1000 per s.f. and not a great deal esp. if in many cases the maintenance per month is 1.6x+ the internal f2.

"I just don't have it in me to do this again." - then please do us all a favor and don't.

Yesterday's thread (http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/10407-things-getting-better) started off with want2buy making an observation, based on his/her research on pricing in a specific segment of the market in a specific neighborhood (about 60 blocks from ar's neighborhood, by the way), and it got hijacked into a typical SE bull vs. bear shouting match. Something has to be pretty off kilter when I find myself agreeing with SteveF: "An intelligent thread by wanttobuy just turned into a bizarre bear zone". There are lots of other venues on SE to argue over the broader market, economy, etc., and if you don't think there are enough then go ahead start some more. But please leave the data-based discussions of specific market segments - like this thread - to people who want to address the question at hand.

Also, channeling SteveF, how did we get off into a bizarre book-of-the-month club zone on this thread?

sidelinesitter, you forget to take your meds? nothing wrong with some civil discourse.

nothing good can ever come from channeling SteveF.

huh...who said this yesterday?

"the real delusion is the belief that anyone actually knows what "reality" is right now or for the near (at least) future. Everyone would do themselves a favor to step back and expand how they think about the concept of "possible". My gut reaction to even the hypothetical of down 75% from today is also, "How could that be possible?" But how am I to know whether that reaction is based on reality or my own inability to imagine the new scope of "possible"."

Sidelinesitter, when people entitle their threads with "things getting better," or "market stabilizing" that's not just asking about what's going down on the UWS. If they want real info on that, we have the market movement with comps and price choppers threads, which i think pretty clearly answer the questions.

so perhaps you're right in a way, and i should have redirected NYCQuant to the ever diligent and observant west81st.

columbia, plenty of posters on this board turn the "it's possible" into "you just don't know", so "why not just buy", "you need a place to live" etc.

I did. SteveF might be delusional on the market, but he was right that want2buy's thread got hijacked and dragged off topic. And yes, I am guilty in part because I made one post. You and ar made about 25 each, virtually none of which had even passing relevance to want2buy's question.

ar, actually, there is something wrong when it disrupts a good faith attempt by another member of the community to put a question out for comment. that's rude, not civil.

anyway, feel free to fire back, but two posts that don't add content to NYCQuant's question is my limit, so I'm off this thread until I have information to offer.

My personal observation: 2 bedrooms have fallen a lot on the UES, so the point that a "standard" 2b/2b of about 1250 sf is now trading at about 999k (meaning an ask of 1.1/1.2). Obviously that is a massive generalization, and assumes it is nice livable condition but not mint, reasonable maintenance, and probably east of lex. Nice 3b/3b are a little more rare, and are trying to anchor well above 2b/2b, so then 1.4 as an ask doesn't look so bad, and assumption is that you can get it for a little less. That said, I'm still waiting as I think 2b/2b are going to take a more substantial fall since there are just so damn many of them that are essentially the same. If they start trading in the mid-800s, which is what I expect, then I think we will see 3b/3b dropping a bit as well, maybe into the 1.2 range.

Aboutready: Thanks. The narrow slice of the UES market I watch closely (mostly pre-war classic sixes/sevens/eights west of Third Avenue) seems to be accelerating to the the downside, with deals printing 20-25% below already-reduced asking prices. It seems reasonable to infer that this movement would exert pressure on the more generic, post-war Yorkville product that comprises the low end of UES 3BR inventory.

I don't have data to support that inference. It's possible that differences in down-payment requirements, maintenance and other attributes create a significant disconnect between the segments, so that the low end could stabilize while the high end is in free-fall.

I agree, West81st. I follow the middle range up here myself, as my daughter goes to school up here, and it would be convenient. I am seeing reasonable 3 beds in the $1.1 range (needing some work), at the fringes (Yorkville).

Regarding the more favorable conditions available to the purchasers of lesser product, I was struck by the fact that the early Elliman report showed that 65% of the sales were for less than a million, but 91% involved price reductions from listing averaging 19%. I think going forward we are going to have a lot of outliers in the luxury market accounting for a disproportionate amount of the discounts from listing (the inverse of the pattern on the way up), but I'm not certain that would have showed up yet.

looks like i decided to play after all.

just did a simple search. there are 857 3 beds on the UES. Of those, 193 have had price cuts of at least 5% in the last 60 days.

there are 79 3 beds on the UES listed at $1.5 million or less. Of those, 25 have had price cuts of at least 5% in the last 60 days.

a higher percentage of the units under $1.5 million have been getting chopped than the more expensive market, roughly 33% vs. 20% (very quick math here).

This new listing falls somewhere in between the 2br/2ba and 3br/3ba segments discussed above. SE lists it as 2br but the write-up says 3. Floor plan suggests that it is convertible to a small third BR (labeled as dining room on the plan). 2.5 baths.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/406226-coop-250-east-87th-st-yorkville-new-york

At $1.4mm it's priced just inside three mid-07 through mid-08 comps that sold between $1.41mm and $1.475mm. This is clearly less apartment than NYCQuant is seeing for $1.4mm and I'm not sure it meets the standard of being a "reasonable" 3br, where aboutready sees options around $1.1mm. This one's coming down.

What's "the internal f2"?

sideline,
The pretend 3br that you indicate is still a little on the high side but, nice layout and building.

Another way to look at this question is to take a look at the monthly absorption rates (posted in their own thread here) for the East Side. The price range with the largest supply, almost two years, is in coops in the $1.5-2.0 million range. The supply overhang will put downward pressure on that price group, which will then put similar pressure on the price group below it. It doesn't work perfectly, because there is a wide range of product, but as a general barometer of where things will head, it's pretty predictive.

It's hard to see much stabilization when a mint, high-floor, 1900 sq.ft. convertible 3BR duplex with nice outdoor space, at Lex and 83rd, keeps chopping like this one:
http://www.prudentialelliman.com/Listings.aspx?ListingID=1048270
If that's a $1.7MM-ask property, generic boxes in Yorkville aren't going to stabilize at 1.4.

Not a very good example. Its a huge and gorgeous apartment that I would love to live in (but can't afford), but it appeals only to a very narrow slice of consumer -- basically a married couple with either no kids or with one kid without any intention of having another kid. Anyone else would forgo the uber-luxuries of an apartment like that and go with an apartment that has 3 real bedrooms. Can you honestly imagine someone buying that apartment and then destroying it by converting the dining alcove into a 3rd bedroom??

I think the glut of moderately priced 2 bedrooms will drive the price of those into the mid-800s, so that the "generic boxes" that are currently in the 1.4-1.6 range will drop to around 1.1 or so (i.e. an extra 250k-300k for that extra bedroom).

Just my two cents obviously, but I'm seeing 2 bedroom come down a lot on UES.

There are alot of people with one kid these days. I'm one, and this layout would be perfect for us.

But, you are correct, the two bedroom market on both the UES and the UWS is seeing significant downward action.

Three bedrooms are more difficult to predict, as there is less product, but the largest portion of the glut on the UES is in the $1.5-2.0 range, and the condo product on the UES is largely family-sized and mostly shadow inventory. There could be considerable pressure over the next 6-12 months.

Only point is that can't compare lux 2 bedrooms with 3 bedrooms. Just different animals.

$1m for a 1200sf 2-bed
$1.6m for 1600sf 3-bed

Paying $1500/sf for the extra 400 sf. Add that to the cost of the 2nd kid.

I suspect that premium is going to go way down. Nonetheless, on many levels, I'm happy we had just one.

In a general sense, what is the value of the second bedroom in terms of price beyond the additional amount per sf (lets say at $700 per sf)?

I would need to do some research, but my guess is that at the end of the day in terms of value psf for the second bedroom there won't be any. I would think that for the foreseeable future we will have sufficient inventory in all sizes, which will over time flatten out any premiums. Location and quality premiums, on the other hand, in some instances, may increase.

Considering that absorption report where the highest inventory levels are 1.5-2.5m, I'd say that is right. That should dispel the notion that 3-beds simply have less supply - may be true but dramatically lower liquidity also to the point that is more than offsetting.