More signs of a bottom...

Great, means now Manhattan only has 2-4 more years to go!

Awesome!

ericho75..have you noticed the increased apt/building threads?.it speaks volume..I think sideline buyers are getting back in.

http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13648998

> ..I think sideline buyers are getting back in.

Interesting... because Steve was much more certain they were getting back in a years ago. He said to watch out for the "stampede".

Oh well... I guess Steve ignores the actual numbers in all the articles he "reads".

nyc10022...i luv ya!.

nyc10022...that apt ur little heart was so fond of?.....SOLD.

did you buy it steveF? where shall we send the housewarming gift?

SteveF, it wasn't your condo that sold... so not sure what you're talking about.

I'm sorry you are still in painful denial, but its not going to get you your money back.

I get that you annoying everyone else with nonsense posts makes you feel better, but its just you...

> did you buy it steveF? where shall we send the housewarming gift?

LOL. Now he's got 6 condos underwater he can't sell.

LMOA... you know hair and nails continue to grow even after you are dead....

"Other housing indicators have recently shown a sharp slowing in the pace of the market's decline"

Like I said... weird things start to happen when you get near 0. Good GOD.... pls lay off the RE viagra...

nyc10022...:D..!

SteveF "have you noticed the increased apt/building threads?.it speaks volume..I think sideline buyers are getting back in."

The increasing apt/building threads is a factor of the enormous amount of people that learned about SE existence in the NYT. It also means more sideline buyers that will not be fooled by "buy now or be priced forever."

Signs of a bottom, huh?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/137653-deep-property-depreciation-ahead?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/137554-government-grossly-underestimates-fannie-and-freddie-s-capital-needs
http://ny.therealdeal.com/articles/corcoran-ceo-says-30-percent-cuts-make-sales-ivanka-trump-corcoran-pamela-liebman-jonathan-miller-dottie-herman
When major brokers who denied the market was tanking start to acknowledge that only properties sold at 30% discount are moving, you know the market is in free fall, and none of your bullshits may convince people otherwise SteveF.
Life is good on the sideline, i'm making money while i watch your fall in slow motion!!!

I spoke with my broker over the weekend and the number of serious buyers have increased dramatically. He's also seeing more contracts being sent out by sponsers. This could all be a hip cup on the way down, but hey who knows we all thought the DOW and S&P was going lower after 2003....fyi, the dow hit new highs in 2007.

ericho... read your post again... new highs in 2007? RE high in 2007? DJIA 50% down therefore NYC RE (?).....

How'd you do on the reasoning section of SAT? :)

Yes, because through all of this, the one one thing we learned is that the one source for straight, unbiased info is... your broker.

BTW, we got the same "my broker said activity was up" claims last quarter... and the quarter before that. Well, how about EVERY quarter since RE tanked.

> who knows we all thought the DOW and S&P was going lower after 2003

And it did...

What's a hip cup?

a cup you put around your waist similar to baseball beer hats... that makes you look totally COOL!

the only BOTTOM I see is a hairy bear's assz

The sign of the bottom will be when SteveF stops calling a bottom.

steveF - 9 months ago.
"Bears, your hopes and dreams for prices to come down are fading fast, I don't know what you are looking at, but my studio condos comps prices have moved higher in the past year not lower and that's with the media induced terrified buyers sitting out-of-bounds....at the first positive media headline(which is coming soon) we will see every Joe shmoo and his brother "GETTING IN THE GAME" ....inventory already has decreased 10% from May highs...the Fed liquidity is pouring money into the economy....2009 is looking better and better....Wall Street? Once the street feels things are getting better it's off to the races and bonuses will be paid to keep those deals flowing....All you bears are self destructing and paralyzed by fear. But it's not too late..learn from this board..see yourselfs for the disasters you are and change...Good Luck.... :)"

SteveF - 13 months ago

"Don't listen to Stevejhx, he is the leader of that crowd. Thank God I didn't listen to those pessimists/doomsayers in my life. I started buying and now I'm rich.:)"

And Juicy from 13 months ago:

"I have repeatedly stated that [my] “theory” of “equilibrium” is an economic impossibility because it is an overwhelming buy signal. With that in mind, it would be impossible for prices to fall that much without investors jumping in at some point during the decline. I’m not exactly sure what that point is, but it is somewhere between 1-16%. Let’s pick the midpoint of 8%. And that my friends, is a reasonable estimate for any correction""

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/3365-poll-growing-majority-avoid-buying-homes

And he still won't admit he was wrong.

The worse the prediction, the less likely to admit wrong...

Perfitz and his 15% up...

What ever happened to petrzitz?

foreclosure hearings.

credit delinquencies surge Q109.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/fed-delinquency-rates-surged-in-q1-2009.html

things are looking peachy yes indeedy.

FYI, any number below 50 means more builders view conditions as poor. A rise from 14 to 16 ... Practically, this means pretty much no change in the mood.

w67thstreet,
You have no idea, before you start spilling crap all over these boards, the DOW did make new highs in 2007. That my friend is a fact. Everything is time frame. To a daytrade, a bull market can merely be 15 minutes.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#chart2:symbol=^dji;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

In 2004, there was NO hard data to show that the economy was coming out of a funk but yet the market continued to rally. Like all markets, by the time you see actual stability in the 'hard' numbers prices will be higher. Look no further then your average Joe who missed out on this latest rally.

sledgehammer,

Those charts does not account for inflation.

All i know is the media is spewing loads of propaganda that the market "May" have hit bottom. Golman Sachs, the Homebuilders and CNBC are completely full of themselves. They propagate these bear rallies that in the end spread more fear.

The only way we can predict the bottom is after the fact. Don't believe the hype people.

PS I hope we've hit bottom... I just don't think we have.

ericho75, are you day-trading in real estate?

no seriously ericho75 what was your SAT score?

hmmmm... six months ago.. I predicted HRP would go from $2 to $4... said NYC RE would get bounce at $1000psf... GM/Chrysler was toast... dow 6500 (not a problem).... so why don't you make some "wild" predictions and let's see where we are in six months... okay... cause the only way to determine "bottom" is after the fact... like zberlin said.

what do you do for a living? daytrade much? Another slick guy who thinkz he's a genius.... so enlighten me w/ your banter... pls go on....

ericho75... seriously if you took HELOC to day trade in the equity mkt.... only Allah can help you now.... and seriously why pick on me only.... Stevejhx... is just as bearish as too UD and host of others....

Look dude it's only an anonymous board... we in no way affect the mkt... so leave the "predictions" to us professional SEs and RIDE this BULL ride giddyup..... ride em COWBOY.....whoooooooooooootoooooootoooootoototototototototoototototototo!

w67thstreet,
It doesn't matter what i do for a living. The facts are, the Dow hit new highs in 2007 after making a low in 2003. Those are facts. I was merely putting a chart to show you these FACTS. It doesn't take a genius to figure that out. And what does SAT score got to do with anything? You're chatting with me here, aren't you? Who's the bigger fool then?

w67th is just havin' a spot o' fun wid you. but how'd you like those credit delinquency charts i linked to?

"no seriously ericho75 what was your SAT score?"

Are we gonna bench race SAT scores? Don't forget to include the year so we can do the adjustment for the hike which occurred a few years back (and if we include that, I wanna be in on the contest because I don't think there's too many gonna top me there).

BTW, how much BS can we stand being turned into statistics: what is this index anyway? A survey of home builders saying how they 'feel' about the market? let me guess: it was done right after the newsletter which came out telling all the members that it's important to keep the public "upbeat" and make sure any public statements they made we of a positive outlook. Talk about "soft" numbers.

ooo, can i play too?

The market is a giant Ponzi Scheme.............anyone who deludes himself into thinking otherwise still believes there's a little man in the sky watching ......

I'm a bottom.

Watch carefully the north east area on this map as it plays. The "best" part comes at the end. How come could we have reached a bottom with a situation like that?
http://tipstrategies.com/archive/geography-of-jobs/

With homebuilder confidence skyrocketing to 16 from 14 you would have expected to see more building activity, right, ericho75?

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/housing-starts-at-record-low-in-april.html

I'll go first: 1350 in 1982

BTW, if this is the good news, what exactly would bad news have to be to be recognized as bad news by RE bears?

Obama making buying houses illegal?

richo suave (ericho75).... I got one word for you "EXTENDZE" :)

Good luck w/ your Powerhouse of lighthouse of house of stupidity purchase... howz it feel to live in a failed development? Seriously what was your SAT score and what do you do for income?

30yrs... congrats on the 1600 when that meant something.. me gotz a 1310... but then again... I only came to the country a decade b/f the exam.... :)

w67thstreet,
Like a bum begging for a bag of rice.
If you can't afford NYC, head over to NJ.

Sledge,
Love that graphic representation of jobs.
' How come could we have reached a bottom with a situation like that?'
Isn't that what the bottom looks like?

eunich75...... in tibet it is a sign of honor and piety to give rice to the beggings of a monk... all people should feel the humility of needing food/clothing from the charity of others.... just a life lesson for a punk from LIC.

LIC = NJ + OKC + Traffic funnel for QBB and MidT Tunnel + Loser Day Traders + About to leave NYC as soon as I get married or get pregnant + 2nd String Inflation Analyst + Let me spend $ in Manhattan Bars w/ my housing savings in LIC and I hope to split a cab w/ fellow LICers to save money + 1st yr Econ Major + "ExtendZE" users.

Ericho I'd like to welcome you as the newest idiot.

Big round of applause!

I meant, "applesauce"

I'm still laughing at the SteveF idiocy.

Ericho, it seems like you have little perspective of what drove the stock market and real estate rallies of 2003-2007. Here is a hint. It starts with 'credit' and ends with 'bubble'. A wise man once said "cash moves everything around me." The "borrowed" before cash was understood.

Not sure which is the better excuse... a shill or really this dumb.

Newest idiot?
Who let this bear out?

Have you not seen all the news. I've been pounding the table before Dr. Doom came out this week.
YES!! Idiot ME knows MORE than Dr. Doom 2 weeks ago.

I mentioned stock prices, retail out performance, DRY baltic index, Gold prices, commodity prices, etc. etc.
Now, folks are finally starting to get it...even the bond guys.

The bond guys are going on strike...not sure what chart you are looking at, but ill stick to the 10 year and Mortgages...take a look at this weeks action and realize payback is a bitch...

You cant get something for nothing....

garelj: I think ericho75 is confused with regard to the bond market. She thinks bonds are backing up because of economic growth, she forgot about supply, downgrades and lack of foreign interest. we will deal with economic growth later.

The 7 year auction went very well today. There's tons of money out there, the 10 year notes are being sold because folks are rotating into equity. It really is that simple. Here's more...

1) Oil at 64 bucks now...new highs on the move. How's that possible with a global deflation?
2) Agriculture stocks are all going bonkers. Check out POT (the ticker symbol)!!!!
3) All commodities are rock'n!
4) After a 11 week runup in stocks, stocks are barely pulling back.
5) Junk bonds are UP over 1,500 basis points from their lows!!! (signs of improving business)
6) Jobless claims, unemployment data, durable goods, etc. etc. all came in BETTER than expected.
7) The dry baltic index have been rock'n. Why are shipping rates going up if things are dead????!?!??!
8) 90% of economist think the economy will start recovery this year.
9) Prof. Roubini sees a recovery too later on this year.
10) New and Existing home sales all came in better then expected.

"...lack of foreign interest...."

You really have no clue do you?
The government auditions the last 2 days was very successful. If there is lack of foreign interest, they would have trouble with the auditions. Jezz...tak'n about not knowing a thing. At least DO some research before you make these type of comments.

And the 5 year auction went well yesterday and the 10 years got killed...whats your point?

"There's tons of money out there, the 10 year notes are being sold because folks are rotating into equity."

Considering equities have gone nowhere the last 2 weeks while bonds got killed so your point is incorrect...they are being sold because of the vast amount of supply coming online...

And all you have to do is read about the choasis that happened in Mortgage market yesterday to see the pain to come...

But keep quoting lagging factors...ill keep to leading ones

Garelj,
If you have no idea what the hell you are talk'n about in regards to the 5 & 7 year auction and the trading of the 10 year bonds, please refrain from answering.
I'm not quoting lagging indicators. I've been pointing to these indicators the last 2 weeks.
Sorry if you don't get it.

I can read a chart...

Obviously you can't else you would be able to understand that PEOPLE ARE BUYING ON THE SHORT END BUT ARE SHYING AWAY FROM THE LONG END CAUSE THEY DONT TRUST THE LONG TERM FUTURE OF THE USA

I guess the steepest increase in the 2-10 yield curve ever means nothing to you, but it means a lot to most people

Now quick, Google it!

I deal with short term notes for a living buddy. Until the 'fed raise rates', the short term notes isn't going anywhere. Now quick, google that!

ericho: stop please...the 5yr on wed was a disaster...the 7yr year today came at 3.30 the low print of the day..and it is still not distributed..WTF are you reading!..The 5yr buyers were at one point 23bps under water, one of the worst 5yr auctions in the history of ever. it came at 2.31 yesterday at 1:01pm, at noon today was trading at 2.54...Wed was one of the worst days in the history of the mortgage market.

Thank god the Gov't "auditions" went well...

Would hate to see what happened at the actual "auctions"

Liar liar liar...

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/RI/OFNtebnd

Too bad Mortgage and Corporate Bonds are tied to long term bonds

But anyways....

??? what does your table show.....that I am correct 5yrs came at 2.31 and 7yrs came at 3.30

You said 'worst auction in history'....did you not? The table clearly shows that it's not the worst auction in history.

your $10,000 dollar a trade table won't tell you details about the quality of an auction. Sorry, by your earlier posts I assumed you were "informed" about interest rates", my bad. I won't bother you any more.

U.S. 10-Year Notes Head for Steepest Two-Month Loss Since 2003

By Wes Goodman

May 29 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury 10-year notes headed for their steepest two-month loss in almost six years as President Barack Obama’s record borrowing spree overwhelmed Federal Reserve efforts to cap consumer interest rates

No your right...its because people are rotating into Equities....

ericho75... that feeling you have, it's called embarrassment. That other feeling... it's flatulence from too many onions w/ burger and coke.

"9) Prof. Roubini sees a recovery too later on this year. " see the "too" is a misplaced modifier... it should read."...too sees a recovery...."

sweet dream princess...

Ericho, what does all this shit have to do with the price of a Manhattan condo? Last time I checked, no one was paying in crude oil. Financial employment still sucks and inventory is still high... Manhattan real estate is far from bottom. When did this board become your opportunity to parrot belch irrelevant datapoints from CNBC?

"your $10,000 dollar a trade table won't tell you details about the quality of an auction. Sorry, by your earlier posts I assumed you were "informed" about interest rates", my bad. I won't bother you any more."

Back pedaling a bit here...
So, was it the worst auction or not? You're full of it.

There are many sites that detail the auction went very successfully. I even showed you a table indicating that. You got nothing! All you bears got nothing!

rhino, ericho just closed on a place a few weeks ago in LIC. and evidently doesn't feel too confident about his decision and thus feels the need to scream from the mountain top how everything is starting to turn.

Are you effing kidding me? A few weeks ago? Pre-construction and stuck at a frothy 2007 price? Suuuuu-weet.

"Are you effing kidding me? A few weeks ago? Pre-construction and stuck at a frothy 2007 price? Suuuuu-weet. "

Nope...40% below 2007 prices.

So you admit you need to pretend this is the bottom? Forget it bro.

Special_K,
Now you're not being smart. Where have i said that i'm nervous about my purchase or feel not confident about it? I'm ecstatic about my purchase. Again, i'm not telling people to buy a place. I'm merely pointing out to the possibility of stabilization in the US economy. All you bears here are wishing for the world to fall apart when it's not. All you bears think we're in great depression II when the fundamentals don't support it.

Need i go on?

Rhino86,
Find me a post that i said housing has bottom. I'm saying the economy might have bottomed!!!
READ BROTHER READ!!!

I just assume you are making the connection...Since this is a real estate board. If you are not, then why the hell are you talking about it here? Saying the economy might have bottomed has zero value. Yes it might have, or might not have. Things like leverage in the system is a lasting change however, that will impact financial industry incomes and borrowing power...that alone can keep Manhattan down for a while. And it can actually be a good thing.

Rhino, so true this is a real estate board. But i feel compelled to add one last economic entry here.

A great read. I have it up on the important economic links thread. Nice to see a sophisticated analysis of the events of the last few days.

The following is only an excerpt. A must read in its entirety.

http://economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/2009/05/a-return-to-a-nasty-external-dynamic.html

Bottom Line: I want to believe that the rapid reversal of Treasury yields is a benign, even positive, event. This is likely the Fed's view; consequently, the will hold steady on policy. Challenging this benign view is that the reversal appears to be lock step with a return to dynamics seen in 2007 and 2008 - exceedingly low US rates encouraging Dollar outflows, stepping up the pace of foreign central bank reserve accumulation and putting upward pressure on key commodity prices. I worry that policymakers have forgotten the external dynamic that was hidden by the crisis induced flight to Dollars last fall. Indeed, capital outflows (indicated by a foreign central bank effort to reverse those flows) would signal that much work still needs to be done to curtail US consumption to bring the global economy back into balance. Policymakers are unprepared for this possibility.

ericho, i don't think we are in anything close to the great depression. truth be told, if i was in san fran right now, i would buy a place out of foreclosure. prices are down 45% from peak. and i can't tell you how many people told me that san fran was different. it was the most beautiful city in the country, amazing weather, big enough to be cosmopolitan, yet with liveable suburbs, etc. and then we hear the same thing about manhattan. anyways, i don't mind some healthy debate but at the end of the day, bringing up a bunch of data that is more appropriate or day traders of S&P futures on these boards doesn't further discussion.

as to why you are not confident about your purchase - that's patently obvious. you don't need to explicitly say it. you've been saying it with all your opening posts, claims of a recovery, etc. if you were really confident, you wouldn't feel the need to cry from the mountaintop that things are better. you would just sit back and enjoy. it's the same reason li kai shing (one of HK's richest men) wears a casio. he's got money and doesn't need to convince others of that by buying a rolex.

sorry "for day traders"

Special_K,

Again, my purchase of my new place is not relevant. I work in the finance industry and have a good grasp on what's happening. Reading these boards the last 2 months make me sick. I'm merely trying to shine a light on a different view on things. A few of my friends emailed me and said it's quite refreshing to have someone step up to the plate when there are signs of recovery in the general economy. When i started these debates, no one brought the idea of an economy seeing light at the end of the tunnel. The economic data releases confirm my theory lately. Have it not?

These boards are depressing without a few bulls around.

"Rhino, so true this is a real estate board. But i feel compelled to add one last economic entry here."

Of cause...when AR does it, it's all cool. You see the bias folks?
Take everything you read here with a grain of salt. The decision to buy or sell is yours and not a bunch of hard nose bears on SE.

My question is - when all these trillions of dollars that the government is spending to prop up our market are spent - what then? Where are those who are employed because of this unsustainable spending going to work? What money will be left to continue to build roads and fix bridges? The government will have shot its wad. I just hope it's enough to get the economy going again, but my fear is that it's not. Once the credit card and CMBS defaults happen and the banks again need another bailout what then???

"...when all these trillions of dollars that the government is spending to prop up our market are spent.."

It will never stop. Bernanke and corp will wreck the dollar before doing that, he even wrote a book about it.

omg i agree with ericho! yes a wrecked dollar means inflation and higher interest rates, not good of RE

ericho75 - 40% off seems pretty good (obviously much better than your neighbors). Can you discuss your thought process of buying in a building where so many of your neighbors are underwater. Don't you fear they walk away even though they could otherwise afford it? With your comp thier places are now officially 40% lower. If I bought a place for $1M with $100K down and my similar unit just traded for $600K I would walk. Sure I ruin my credit, but a good credit score isn't worth $300K to me. That is, my borrowing costs in aggregate won't go up by more than $300K over the next 10 years because I default on a mortgage.
Thoughts?

"! yes a wrecked dollar means inflation and higher interest rates, not good of RE"

It's call competitive currency devaluation. Happening across the globe now. No one wants a strong currency, why would they? That cash you have stash in the bank are dwindling away.

Agreed/fear that we continue to print money - unfortunately for all of the baby boomers the $500,000 they have saved for retirement will soon last them 10 years max and they'll be back to work (if they can find any).

Jazzman,

40% from the peak around my neighborhood. Not everyone bought at the peak in my building. The range is quite spread out, but i can't answer that question in regards to why someone won't walk out because they paid me. If i have to venture into it, i would think most would have a hard time giving up 100K-300K of cash which can take some of us a number of years to save? Not every is a high roller like the bears here. Their only hope to making some of it back is with price appreciation within the next 5-10 years. If one walks away and they will have no shot. The ability to buy another place is probably shot for 7 years too. Are you really going to rent 7 years??? How much would that cost???

ericho75 - I'm saying I would walk and the bank would eat the $300k not me - that's why I would walk.

Renting is cheaper on a monthly basis than owning so it would actually cost less (and if prices don't go up over the next 7 years then renting is not only cheaper on a monthly basis but on an all in basis too).

You would eat the deposit which could be 300K if you put down 30% on a 1 million dollar unit. How much the banks eat depend on what they can get for the unit.

"and if prices don't go up over the next 7 years then renting is not only cheaper on a monthly basis but on an all in basis too"

I disagree with your assessment. There's too many factors involve for you to make this statement. Location, quality of the unit, taxes, maintenance cost, etc. etc.

Nearly every apartment bought at or near today's asking prices would have a similar rental that over a 7 year period would be cheaper if for-sale prices don't appreciate. Doesn't matter what tax bracket you're in - assumes normal increases for maintenance, taxes etc. For owning to make FINANCIAL sense in the city prices must appreciate.

Rents are so cheap compared to the monthly nut of owning and there are some great/awesome rentals you can find for under $7K/month right now.

PS - what percentage of people buying condos in LIC are putting down more than 10%.

A number of people i know have put down 20-30% down.
I also know for a fact that someone just closed a unit in the powerhouse (980K) with an all cash deal.

You cannot buy a unit in my building without at last 20% down these days. Might be the same in all of NYC.

Don't forget, in 7 years time you will be hitting your principal a lot sooner then the person still renting and looking to buy. Based on what you are saying, would you be saying that renting for 30 years at the same monthly cost as buying will be better too?