Stabilization in retail now too? Sears earnings

Sears' earnings rose because they slashed advertising expenditures and payroll. That's sustainable.

When Sears moves markets you know something's wrong.

That Sears made a profit is a great reason to overpay for housing. I am in.

i'm holding out until Penney's shows some improvement.

Montgomery Ward's the line leader.

Explain how the high end restaurant chains are also doing well over the past 6 months?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=PFCB,%20cake

If things are really as bad as all these knuckleheads are saying, then why are folks eating out in PF Chang and Cheese Cake factories?

ericho75, explanation: http://www.fool.com/investing/small-cap/2009/05/20/5-buyer-beware-stocks.aspx

high-end? anywhoo, it's called consolidation. some go out of business, others gain some business, total net business is nonetheless down. that's why the redbook/goldman retail numbers have not been predictive of total retail sales in the slightest recently.

the stock was up mostly because they got new financing. why would sears earnings be up? who and what do they cater to that would do well in a recession?

What i'm alluring to folks is, the rate or speed of decline has slowed or even halted on the economy.
All of this is positive for housing going forward. Of course we all know there are many other factors, but developers and sellers will start to pick these signs up and another piece of the buyer's leverage will be pulled from them.

Just a thought...don't stone the messenger please.

ericho, the turd in the punchbowl is unemployment and personal credit destruction. there are others, but those are the areas that will kill those government-induced green shoots.

And what about the recent recovery in the Baltic Exchange Dry Index?

http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm

Why are rates for shipping goods from overseas now rising?

every ship that can possibly hold oil is doing so. voila.

ericho75 meet SteveF.... SteveF meet ericho75... may you raise many little bullz in your future...

OBTW... when is LIC not NJ? In HS we use to call you guys the bridge and tunnel crowd and couldn't be bothered dancing to Depeche Mode at Limelight w/ you guyz :)

AlanHart,

That article explain nothing in the underlying business.
Check out the actual revenue numbers and cost of revenue. Pretty clear to me. Signs of life out there...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=PFCB

And in Cheesecake Factory..
Revenue numbers were flat even in the worst economic times in recent memory.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=CAKE

Let's have a look at the mall situation.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124294047987244803.html

and ericho, you didn't like my decreased competition argument?

w67thStreet,
Who's the bull? I'm your father bear here. I'm just seeing light at the end of the tunnel.
You on the other hand has his/her eyes wide shut.

Be neutral, watch for signs.

I'm just a messenger.

They were profitable on a drop of 10% in revenue. Fewer dollars being spent -- companioes trimming expenses. Net Net ok for sears, not ok overall.

ahhhhhh... ericho75... our difference lies in the "time frame" of the recovery... only father Time will tell....

yes I am watching the signs and think Sears? is a sign that all is good? No.... they just eeked out the bankruptcy/re-fi blink fest w/ their bankers... that's all

Oh the biggest regional bank in Fl just went belly up... sign.... U at 9%... sign.... NYC RE down 25 to 40% in 18 months...sign...

whenever I shut my eyes.... it must be nite....

Aboutready,

Not saying i don't like it, it's valid. It's your typical business cycle. After every boom you'll have a bust. Historically most recession ends in 24 months. We're a little past that now. If history is a guide, then we should be looking for signs of life.

who said this is a run of the mill recession? You ain't seen nothing yet....
aboutready.... I like your decreased comp analysis... tons of slack in this economy.... bet deflation b/f inflation... I'm heading towards your view a little more.... thats' w/ my eyes closed :)

"NYC RE down 25 to 40%"
That's from today's current prices are from the peak prices in 2007?

ericho, historically recessions usually last quite a bit less than 24 months.

and this is the mother of all recessions. post-depression we enacted numerous regulatory measures to prevent credit-based systemic failure, and for the past 20 years or so we've been dismantling those. this will not resemble the post-war interest-rate induced recessions.

w67th, i'm fairly certain that inflation will show up at some time, in some form, but now they're just tossing increasingly worthless dollars into holes. they would love themselves a good piece of inflation.

I love it. They beat the Street, sure, but year over year revenues were DOWN 9% in 1Q. Sears same-store sales were down 11.7% and Kmart down 2.1% in the U.S. They say "The decline at Sears Domestic
continues to be driven by categories directly impacted by housing market conditions (including the home appliances, lawn & garden and tools categories)" That does not sound like we have reached bottom.

I mean really, TOP has 0 credibility on this topic. When same-store sales at retailers are flat, THEN we can start saying we may have hit bottom.

http://www.searsholdings.com/pubrel/pressOne.jsp?id=2009-05-21-0005031160

w67thStreet,
Explain why Silver and Gold prices are up 100% from the lows?
Explain why Gold is 6% from the all time highs?
Explain why the dollar is starting to lose it's lust again?
Explain how oil prices are still at 60 dollars which is consider to be a 'no-way, no-how' number back in 2004?

Hyper-inflation might be closer than you think.
WIEMER here we come!

Sorry..meant to say copper prices and not gold up 100%.

Macbeth comes to mind. Bubble, bubble, double, double toil and trouble.

"...Indeed, while some leading indicators based on sentiment have risen – the effect, in part of the rally in stock markets – initial jobless claims give little cause for optimism...

...In addition, aggregate private wages and salaries have now fallen for six months in a row, an unknown occurrence in the 50 years the data have been measured. And with unemployment come more foreclosures, lower property prices and troubles for the banks, hindering lending. Not to mention the long process of consumer deleveraging...."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/6566967c-460f-11de-803f-00144feabdc0.html

This is part of why the bottom probably has not been reached, and ALSO why inflation has been so muted, and in fact we have had disnflationary months. With low aggregate demand you can have massive monetary build-up and still have low inflation. You need velocity of money to increase as well, and it has not.

Gold, on an inflation adjusted basis, would be $2200 if it had stayed at its all-time highs reached in the early 1980s. Saying that gold has reached the same price it did in Reagan's first year in office is hardly saying anything at all.

Since steve thinks Bernake is a prophet:

"...All but six states lost jobs in April and double-digit unemployment persisted in every corner of the country as companies squeezed by the recession slashed payrolls....

...Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has said he expects the economy to begin growing again later this year, but the recovery is expected to be slow, with companies in no rush to hire. The Fed projects unemployment will stay high well into 2011...

...The nation has lost 5.7 million jobs since the recession, the longest since World War II, began in December 2007. The nationwide unemployment rate stands at 8.9 percent, the highest in a quarter-century...."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090522/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_state_unemployment

High unemployment until 2011...

*pat in the back*

good job E...good job.

BACK TO THE CHEESECAKE FACTORY METER NOTED 3+ years ago..

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CAKE+Interactive#symbol=cake;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Today Cheesecake factory is at ALL TIME HIGHS.

You bet on RE over equity.

Are you still punching yourself on that one?

WHOOPS....

Go find me a thread on here from 3 years ago where you posted a 'REASON' to buy stocks.
Or even defend your decision to GET INTO stocks...

Go find it.

Again, YOU are FULL OF CHIT.

Can we clarify:

Ericho, you bought stocks and real estate
Somewhereelse, you bought stocks

Is that what you two are fighting about?

I'm not quite sure that restaurants are the best measure of recovery. There has been a fundamental social shift; people just seem to eat out more (whether they have money or not) rather than in. Almost no one I know cooks for friends anymore - that way of life is gone. "Theatrical" restaurants basically lease 2 hrs of party time. Lots of people now pregame to cut the costs of liquor; but I think the social trend has a life of its own the supersedes economic reality

I think you are missing the point of this post.
The initial post was dated 4 years ago months after the market bottomed (march 2009).

The talk around here during that time was humanity was entering the NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION (1929 style). 'whaaaaa'????

Yes, if you were on here during 2009 folks actually believed that. Since restaurants are consumer sensitive businesses, i used Cheese Cake factory as a measure for consumer spending. The earnings and performance of Cheese Cake factory was contrary to the state of the economy. Folks are not lining up for apples (1929 style) but eating out in these mid-tier restaurants tailored to the middle class.

"Ericho, you bought stocks and real estate
Somewhereelse, you bought stocks"

Greensdale, the issue isn't who bought what but the 'meat' behind the purchases. The dude offered NOTHING on WHY he purchased and recommended stocks in October 2009 (7 months and 80% S&P rally AFTER the bottom). He then uses MARCH 2009 as his entry when his recommendation was in OCTOBER 2009. The dude is a fraud. Your typical stock broker/money manager that probably don't believe in their own BS.