East Village New Developments

Here are some new developments either starting sales or well along in construction:

-Village Green at 311 E. 11th St. Sales started in Apr 09. 10 units are listed out of 36 total.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/311-east-11-street-new_york

-The Copper Building at 215 Ave. B has finished it's exterior but has lots of interior work left to do. 17 units are planned, none yet listed, though broker signage is up at the site.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/215-avenue-b-new_york
http://curbed.com/tags/copper-building

-189 Ave. C AKA 654 E. 12th St. 23 units in 8 floors, with the top 3 set back from the street. No idea if they'll be condos or rentals. SE still has the lot listed as "Miscelaneous Garage or Gasoline Station (G9)Owned by ELEANORA'S RALTY COMP 2 floors," but a quick search turned up these docs that offer the number of units:

www.nyc.gov/html/dcp/pdf/env_review/evles/04_feis.pdf
www.nyc.gov/html/dcp/pdf/env_review/evles/09_feis.pdf

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/property/654-east-12-street-manhattan

tenemental, thanks. will try to post anything i see as well. maybe the east village will finally see some decent price levels. i like crackville quite a bit myself.

Indeed a very enjoyable corner of town.. tremendous work Tenemental!!!!!!!

Thanks guys. The EV has definitely come down (see my posts on the Downtown edition of IYCDMMWC), but it has room to fall a lot further, and I think this unwanted new development inventory (and the failure of one or more of these buildings) will have something to do with it.

Here are a couple more:

-434 East 10th Street: A recently converted warehouse with 5 units. 1 sold in Aug 08. Another was listed until May 09, asking $1MM for a supposed 1600sf, but no takers. The remaining units are in shadow inventory.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/434-east-10-street-manhattan

-424 E 10th St: The property transfer happened in June 09, but construction already looks pretty far along with a finished facade. SE still has it as "Garage - One Story (Semi-Fireproof or Fireproof) (G2) Owned by 42424 REALTY INC 1 floors" but it's clearly a 6-floor residential building. No idea if it will be sales or rentals.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/property/424-east-10-street-manhattan

Tenemental, this is great info. Thank you. I was wondering if you know the name of or have any info on the conversion that was taking place on the corner of St. Mark's and 2nd Ave? It has some theatrical/film-related name, but I can't for the life of me recall what it is despite having lived one block away from it for years.

It had not completed construction last March when I moved out, but seemed to be moving along. I believe there was some marketing material online. Possibly more shadow inventory. Awful location right on St. Mark's - unless you're a teenage punk wannabe from Queens, in which case, I doubt you have the million and a half dollars to meet the price tag.

that unit at 434 e 10th is interesting. i think it would cost me about $200k to add a bathroom, move the kitchen, and the second bedroom would have to be internal, but it could work. i hate it when i see things that i might like! and, the location, to me, is f'ng awesome.

Ah yes, evnyc, shadow inventory indeed. Put this one on the "largely unsold" list.

-Theatre Condominium at 133 Second Avenue: 11 units in the building, only 5 sold, the last in Nov 08. Curbed had an article in July 08 that included this gem: "According to the developer's website, only two units remain." Hysterical. One was listed in Feb 09 and pulled in April. Another is currently listed, leaving 5 in shadow inventory. Scaffolding is currently up as they work on the facade.

The theme of these buildings is so clear: "Holy shit, we have a lot of unsold units. Let's only list one so we don't look desperate." The Theatre Condominium tried and failed with one layout so they switched to another.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/404982-condo-133-2nd-avenue-east-village-new-york
http://curbed.com/archives/2008/07/07/welcome_to_the_st_marks_place_of_2008.php

Wow, aboutready, I'm impressed. You have a much higher tolerance for crackville than I do. I'm on the block all the time for either Keepers Storage or the overpass to East River Park. The bleakness of the projects and Mitchell Lama buildings across the street, the auto repair shops, the proximity to Ave D and distance to the subway are all turnoffs for me. It would have to be old school "nobody wants to live here" cheap. I do enjoy the dance parties on the sidewalk, though.

That said, digging the spot might serve you well, considering the price they couldn't get. They were overstating the square footage by about 300sf, but it still put the asking price at $770/sf.

Manhattan Loft Guy had some interesting thoughts on the building next door, which he thinks may be related. Check out the recently pulled listing, $1.6MM (down from $2.4MM) for 3,780 raw sf:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/428-east-10-street-manhattan

MLG raises some good concerns, though:

http://www.realtown.com/SandyMattingly/blog/archive/2007/july

yeah, it would have to be really cheap. but in for a penny, and all that. i wouldn't do it now, have a daughter to think about, but in terms of myself i have quite the pioneer spirit. and i'm at 23rd and B now.

i will confess that my ideal location would be between 1st and b, though. that i could do with the daughter. oh well, idle musings, i'll probably be right where i am 10 years from now.

-229 E. 2nd: The facade is nearly finished, just some wood up where I guess windows will go. The terraces are up in back but the rear of the building still needs some work. SE currently has it as "Garage - One Story (Semi-Fireproof or Fireproof) (G2) Owned by LAU, FOO YUEN 1 floors" so no information on sale vs. rental. The Real Deal has it as a 6-story building split into 3 large units, a triplex and 2 duplexes. Sounds like a condo to me. I wouldn't be surprised if those plans change to 5 or 6 smaller units.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/229-east-2-street-manhattan

-209 E. 2nd has had 4 sales of 6 units, but the last was in July 08. #3 has been listed since Apr 07, and there's another unit in shadow inventory. I guess it's inhabited, but it looks like there's still work being done.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/209-east-2-street-new_york

Here's one that aboutready mentioned on another thread:

-123 3rd Ave: 18 stories, 45 units. The developer projects completion in 2010.

http://curbed.com/archives/2008/05/07/demolition_underway_at_123_third_avenue.php

Hi Ten, long time no speak! I was wondering about 525 E. 12th (for a friend, not me). Has it been built? Are the prices still way out of touch?
Thanks!

Nice work
Now that's what I'm talking about!

KHD! Great to hear from you!

It's built (has been for a while), but I haven't been inside. #5 went into contract about 2.5 months ago when the ask was $1087/sf. There are three remaining identical units (plus the garden and penthouse apartments) and the one listing that represents them, #4, is now asking $987/sf. Still seems way too high to me, especially considering the obvious lack of interest and now the passing of the "busy" season. I can't find it, but on another thread I thought I remembered someone posting a question about the risks relative to "a deal of a lifetime." I don't know if that means the brokers were alluding to some steep discounts, but even if they were, this one seems super risky. FWIW, it's high up on my "likely to fail" list.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/9032-building-at-525-east-12th-street-time-on-market

falcogold1, thanks. More to come.

Thanks, Ten! I will pass it on to my friends.

We actually stopped looking for awhile when interest rates were nuts (not to mention the high prices). We got back into the search when prices started to go down along with interest rates. We actually put an offer in but backed out (won't get into it), but we are thinking of going back in. If it all goes through, will let you know!

Thanks for the post, very helpful.

-92 East 7th St: Digging started in mid or late-08. Still in early stages of construction. Condo, 6 stories, 8 units.

http://curbed.com/archives/2008/08/11/miracle_grill_garden_going_condo_in_east_village.php

flowerboxbuilding.com domain is parked. When they can't even afford the $30 a month bandwidth......

Ok...I own in the building but I'm going to put it out there and see what you have to say. I'm hopeful that curiosity doesn't kill the cat.
- 425 East 13th Street

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/404982-condo-133-2nd-avenue-east-village-new-york

This is the Theatre Condo I was thinking of. Looks as though they are farther along than I thought. Any insights? Looks like a nice space, but still quite pricey and being right on St. Mark's is far from ideal.

The flowerbox building sold out in 07 - there are 8 units - all sold or spoken for. The 3W listing is a resale.

fyi, i don't see any sign that 3W ever closed. there are other units where there is no record on SE of closing. i hate ACRIS, maybe someone can have a look and report when it closed.

3W is still active and listed by a corcoran broker for $1.595 w/ a 100K price reduction on 4/27

Busy day, I'll reply to what I can.

-The A Building, 425 E. 13th St: The last sale (6A) was very strange. It looked like a massive price drop (technically it was) but both parties are LLCs of the developer, so who knows what that was about. Previous sales showed significant depreciation: -9% in the C line, -19% in the E line.

It's mostly sold, but again, not sure what the story is with 6A. I also don't see sales for 5A or 6L. Are there any unsold units on the 7th floor, or do some lines end at 6? I don't see 7F, 7L, 7M, 7N or 7P. Lots of missing 2s, but I would guess those are the top floors of duplex units that sold.

Any potential buyer would be wise to read this thread and hire an inspector:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/1457-425-east-13th-street-a-building

There's also talk of lawsuits that a buyer's attorney should investigate (see the comments here):

http://www.observer.com/2008/boy-developer-ben-shaoul-wants-live-forever

Sorry for the negativity, but, well, you asked. I hope you've worked out any any kinks in your apartment (if there were any), that you have a long time horizon and that you're enjoying your home. Have fun in the pool this summer.

evnyc, did you see my post on the Theater Condominium above? Your hunch was right, only 5 of 11 sold.

I stand corrected on the number of units (and therefore shadow inventory) at the Flowerbox. It seems configurations changed after the initial marketing? It also looks like letters E/W became A/B in closing docs?

That said, aboutready and REsavvy are right about 3W. There's no sales record for it on ACRIS. A search for 3B (E=A, W=B?) brings up the sales docs for 4A. I hope for the owner's sake that the 3W listing isn't actually a resale attempt of 4A, as she'd be asking 32% below her purchase price. As it appears, the listing history is:

09/12/2006 Previously Listed in StreetEasy by Warburg at $1,695,000.
10/16/2007 Warburg Listing is no longer available.
01/17/2008 Previously Listed in StreetEasy by Warburg at $2,395,000.
03/07/2008 Warburg Listing is no longer available.
10/20/2008 Also Listed in StreetEasy by Warburg at $1,995,000.
02/07/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $1,895,000.
04/22/2009 Price decreased by 11% to $1,695,000.
04/28/2009 Price decreased by 6% to $1,595,000.

The listing didn't actually change hands. The brokers that handled the Flowerbox originally, Irene Lo and Laurence Carty, left Warburg for Corcoran.

There is no sales listing for the penthouse, so I'll take it that that is what you're referring to when you say "spoken for." I wondered on another thread if the developer always planned it for himself and saw the rest of the building as a way to finance it. Having it listed for sale for nearly a year makes the already implausible "early investor" story even less believable. Anyway, it's still under construction, clearly visible from east of the building and the park behind it.

By the E=A, W=B logic, 2W's recent listing was a failed flip of 2B. I guess the changing letters are the brokers' or developer's way of trying to disconnect the dots from sales prices? God, that's cheesy. For the record, there have been no successful resales, as someone tried to claim on another thread.

BTW, not trying to hate on the building. It's actually gorgeous. I wish other new developments followed its aesthetic lead. But it would be nice to see a building sold without so much sleight of hand.

259 East 7th St

The declaration lists 1A, 1B, 2A, 2B, 3A, 4A, PH, and ST1 (storage room).

Oddly, it does NOT list G, which did transfer (for 2,375,000) and is in the Schedule A described as 122SF of storage space on the first floor and the rear yard of 954SF.

Neither the PH nor ST1 appear to have transferred.

-LES GIrls Club Building, Ave D. between E. 7th & E. 8th Streets: This lot is huge, opening on Ave. D, E. 7th and E. 8th, and as of this past weekend it seems to be in the earliest stages of construction. The plan, in addition to headquartering the LESGC, is for 72 units, half of which will be market rate (condos or rentals? don't know).

No idea what will happen with the project's financing. The club's website says "The Girls Club is in the final stages of a $20 million capital campaign to build New York City’s first and only Girls Club facility- a LEED Gold state of the art ‘green’ building that will serve hundreds of economically disadvantaged girls and their families. The new Girls Club Center for Community will open in 2011."

The architect (anonymously) comments that it's moving forward as of 4/02/09 (#6), as does the club's director (#12):

http://curbed.com/archives/2009/04/02/les_girls_club_going_threesided_on_avenue_d.php

Condos, rentals, inventory, whatever, I'd love to see the girls have this space.

Thanks for your response. 6L closed on 3/14/08 for 725K. The 7th floor eliminates many of the lines; they are all larger units. The "missing 2's" are the 2nd floors of duplex units as you guessed. There is one unit for sale in the building - it's a resale. Thanks again...it was nice to get your insight.

-397-401 East 8th Street: The lot was bought by Sam Chang of the McSam Hotel Group, but the intention for this one is a 6 story, 20 unit condo.

Curbed's coverage is from Nov 07, but the lot has seen work since that picture was taken. It's cleared and partially dug, with stacks of lumber and large pipe visible behind the construction fence.

http://curbed.com/archives/2007/11/20/sam_chang_now_buying_shit_he_wont_even_go_see.php
www.nyc.gov/html/dcp/pdf/env_review/evles/09_feis.pdf

-96 Avenue C: Recently finished, these units are being offered as rentals, but the entire bulding has also been available for sale since Dec 2007 (the last listing was pulled in May 09). The sales listing says 6 units, but there are 9 offered for rent on the broker's website, plus the ground-floor retail space. Maybe they broke up the duplexes? Looks like nothing's been rented here. Not surprising, as the rents are too high, there's a big banner hanging off the building and it looks like a refridgerator (anyone remember Mosquito Coast?).

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/house/96-avenue-c-manhattan
http://www.nycgmac.com/index.cfm?sort=cats.cat_name&order=asc&STATE=profile&PAGE=agents&ID=24

-215 East 3rd Street: A pair of buildings, 6 stories in front, 4 stories in back, recently purchsed and refurbished to offer rental units. The buildings were originally offered for sale in Nov 05 for $6MM, but only closed in Feb 09 for $3.5MM. Interestingly, The Real Deal reported in April that the building was placed in receivership after defaulting on a $1.7MM loan. I remember a banner out front that said rentals, but I can't find any info online.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/5308-townhouse-215-east-3rd-street-east-village-new-york
http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/relying-on-receivers-again--2

Court appointed receivers, in my experience, are a complete disaster for everyone. the run buildings very poorly and enter into agreements (like re-renting vacant RS apartments at the old rents when they could have been moved over $2,000 and ransomed out of the RS system) which hurt the value of the property. And just about every time I've bought a building that had a receiver, there was unaccounted for $ that bled out somewhere. Repairs had been made by incompetent companies that I never heard of before at 3 times the going rate. It's a patronage assignment, and we all know where that leads to.

Chutzpah: Definition - trying to get $6 million for a building which can't support a $1.7 million debt.

-238 E. 4th Street: Former site of a construction company, the property was sold for $3.5MM in May 08. The previous structure has been torn down, the hole's been dug and there's rebar awaiting concrete pouring for the foundation.

EV Grieve commented on previous permit paperwork that said it was to be a two-family residence, but according to a Jan 09 filing at the DOB this will be a 6 story building ("Work on Floor(s): CEL,ROF 001 thru 006 "). Can't find info on total number of units or condo vs. rental.

http://evgrieve.com/2008/11/same-old-story.html
http://a810-bisweb.nyc.gov/bisweb/JobsQueryByNumberServlet?requestid=2&passjobnumber=110356203&passdocnumber=02#FS

-32 Clinton Street: This is a block below the EV/LES dividing line, but on the uber-hip corner of Clinton and Stanton I imagine that the developers are targeting the same boutique condo market (or lack thereof) as the developers of many of the buildings described above. I doubt, for example, that a potential buyer on E. 2nd would not also consider this, 2 blocks away. I used to walk by this corner all the time wondering when it would be developed. The developers were very late to the game, buying the land in May 07 and beginning sales on Dec 08.

There are 4 residential units and 2 commercial units available for sale. Nothing has closed and nothing is listed as in contract. All residential units have been price-chopped, the commercial units aren't listed on SE. Merchants Properties and Wohlfarth are both listing three of the units, so instead of shadow inventory this building is a creating a few duplicates.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/32-clinton-street-new_york

Tenemental, apologies, it's been a busy week and I missed your post. Great info. The layouts are okay, I like lots of windows, but the prices and the location stink like St. Mark's St. on garbage day in the middle of a heat wave.

Can anyone tell me more about a development underway and known as The Charles at 1st Avenue & East 72nd Street?

Sorry, nysearcher, not my beat. You might want to check this thread and post the question there:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/7617-if-you-can-demonstrate-market-movement-with-comps-upper-east-side-edition

-532 East 5th Street: StreetEasy still has rental info from when there was a 3-story plus garden-level building here. You can see it in Google Street view if you click to the right to get past the UPS truck then turn left. It's been leveled, and there's digging in progress w/ a backhoe parked on the site. Can't find any info on what's planned, just demo permits. The lot to the left of the site is parking for 534, but the lot to the right is also behind the construction fence, so the new building should be not only taller than the old, but wider.

EV Grieve had some posts w/ pictures. The buzzer at the bottom of the first EVG link is still there on the iron fence, which is pretty surreal sans building.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/532-east-5-street-manhattan

http://evgrieve.com/2008/11/demolition-on-east-fifth-street.html

http://evgrieve.com/2008/11/east-fifth-street-update.html

-427 E. 12th Street: Construction started, enough was completed to beat the 421-A deadline, and the lot is now for sale, asking $2.3MM, with plans for a 6-story, 12-unit residential rental or condo. The listing at Massey Knakal states:

"East Village residential rental development opportunity, with FOUNDATION already in place. The foundation was poured prior to the June 2008 421-a deadline, enabling the full property tax exemption benefits. This site has plans for a six story (plus cellar and roof), 12 unit, rental building, w/ a total of 12,952 gross SF (10,741 SF above grade, 2,211 SF below grade). A Condo plan is also available. Another option is to file an “alt plan”and develop the property to custom specifications while still maintaining the 421-a tax benefits. This is a unique project for a developer or user and is ready to go. Priced at $178 per gross buildable square foot, this is an opportunity not to be missed."

http://www.masseyknakal.com/listings/detail.aspx?lst=19247

Today Curbed reported that the foundation is being poured at 123 3rd Ave, noted above:

http://curbed.com/archives/2009/06/08/curbedwire_park_avenue_paint_job_pouring_at_123_third.php

-536 East 13th Street: DOB filing for 6/30/08 job start, 6 floors/6 units. Close to Ave B, you can see the Copper Building from the sidewalk.

The land sold for $2,310,000 in March 05. The seller was the city...interesting. Looks like a flip attempt in the loopnet listing ("Date Last Verified: 8/30/2007" but no price), but there has definitely been work done since the pictures were taken. A construction fence is up and there's been digging.

http://a810-bisweb.nyc.gov/bisweb/WorkPermitDataServlet?requestid=4&allisn=0001835684&allisn2=0000524741&allbin=1811124&passjobnumber=104325650

http://www.loopnet.com/property/15294091/536-East-13th-Street/

-62 E 1st Street: 10 unit condo. Sales started in Nov 07, only 7 have closed. Of the 3 current listings here, #N-1 appears to be a renaming of #1N, which changed from Halstead to Bond in March 09. The current #1N must be some kind of enormous combination, though it's not reflected in the floorplan, which is the same as #1N (again Bond). #NT-1 (yep, Bond) also seems to be a combination of some sort though the listing has the same #1N floorplan. I guess they're hoping to sell the remaining units any way they can, offering 3 combo options. The listing for 4N was recently pulled, never sold (also moved from Halstead to Bond). There's no listing for 2N, but it's probably the top floor of the 1N duplex. No listings for 1S or 5S. 2S had a failed flip attempt.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/62-east-1-street-new_york

KHD, you asked recently about the state of construction at 311 E. 11th St. In case you haven't been by, they have a long way to go: no windows, no walls. A Curbed link said that 8 units were in contract, but clicking through to the article, the developer was quoted as saying that he "expects" 8 units to be in contract soon. Right. I'll believe that when I see 8 closed sales. Judging by anther post of yours it may not matter, though. Best of luck to you.

The Copper Building seems to be only a little behind Village Green, construction-wise, so it's interesting they've taken such different marketing approaches (Village Green has been listed for almost 2 months, nothing for Copper). Then again, Copper hasn't looked any different in recent weeks, so maybe there are other issues there.

-330 East 6th Street: A new rental building in the middle of Indian row. Surprisingly, all units (no number given, 5 or 6 stories) are 3-bed/2-bath with balcony/fire escape combos. My first thought was that it's a strange time and location to build family-size units, but then I realized they're probably hoping for students and shares ($4,495/3). Construction isn't finished, but it's far enough along for showings.

http://www.9300realty.com/index.cfm?page=details&id=5007

Thanks for the info on 311 11th...actually wasn't looking at that one for me (way out our price range) but for friends who were interested.

We're hoping to sign the contract later this week (we almost did, then backed out---long story). But we're back in again and just waiting for an inspection.

Thanks for the well wishes. Hopefully it goes through before interest rates creep up again!

219 1st Ave: I walked by the site at the NW corner of 1st Ave and 13th St recently and was surprised to see construction netting up around the frame. This thing's been discussed on Curbed as far back as 05 when the building that used to stand there was condemmed. The last permit issued (3/16/09) says it will be 4 stories/4 units. Mee Noodle House was pretty good back in the day.

http://a810-bisweb.nyc.gov/bisweb/JobsQueryByNumberServlet?requestid=2&passjobnumber=110346251&passdocnumber=01

http://curbed.com/archives/2005/12/05/local_food_spots_cant_beat_the_wall.php

http://curbed.com/archives/2007/09/11/rumblings_bumblings_12_stories_for_gslope_cigar_for_evills_green_monster_more.php

EV Grieve has an update on the LES Girls Club building mentioned above. Groundbreaking is planned for the fall:

http://evgrieve.com/2009/06/update-on-lower-eastside-girls-club.html

He also has another post on 268 E. 4th. I had heard about the Novogratz' making the EV their next neighborhood, but didn't notice the address until this:

http://evgrieve.com/2009/06/former-construction-company-becoming.html

-100 3rd Ave: Part of the Cinema East theater building, this looks like four pre-existing stories (looking gutted) above a commercial space plus another 4 story tumor being built. The last filing at the DOB says 7 stories and 3 dwellings, which seems odd, but there is a stop work order on the site and the plan was disapproved.

http://a810-bisweb.nyc.gov/bisweb/JobsQueryByNumberServlet?requestid=2&passjobnumber=110436984&passdocnumber=01

-226 Stanton St (between Attorney & Ridge): Another one that's 1 block below the LES cut-off, but close enough to be in range of anyone who has looked at buildings in lower Alphabet City. The site used to be home to an arts group and theater. It's a Karl Fisher building with 8 stories and 53 units. Frame and floors are in, but there's still a ways to go. LES gentrification used to end sharply at Clinton Street, then kind of moved one block east to Attorney St. when 154 Attorney was built and Siné was reborn there, but Siné has since closed and 154 looks pretty out of place on that block. The more recent nearby new developments are River Ridge, which sold poorly and then stopped (only 3 closings, nothing since December) and 32 Clinton, which has no sales. 226 Stanton sits next to a halfway house and diagonal from public housing. I had my own Law and Order experience on the corner of Stanton & Ridge years ago when two police cars sped onto the curb, cornering the guy they drew their guns on. I was a few feet away speaking on a pay phone ("Call you back!"). This may have seemed like gutsy forward thinking in bubble times, now it just looks doomed.

If you click through and read the Curbed post and comments, please avoid soiling this thread with remarks for the notorious poster. Thank you.

http://curbed.com/archives/2008/06/05/here_komes_karl_lower_east_side_goes_searching_for_fischer.php

Add'l info on 525 E. 12th St. here:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/9032-building-at-525-east-12th-street-time-on-market

tenemental - thanks so much for this info - this is the area I've been circling for a few years - looks like for now, anyway, I'm priced out of a good building. Hopefully that'll change. I heard rumors a long long time ago that 311 e 11th was supposed to price around $900/sf... that sure changed, didn't it? Oh well... Maybe things will look more realistic for EV/LES buyers in 2010.

You're welcome, saraj. Village Green started sales nearly three months ago and lists only one unit in contract (not just on SE, but the Corcoran site), despite the developer's supposed expectation of 8 contracts signed 3 1/2 weeks ago:

http://www.nydailynews.com/real_estate/2009/06/12/2009-06-12_crash_course_in_tough_times.html?page=0

At that pace, with 35 more units to move, the difficulty of financing new construction and last week's Q2 market reports, they'll be cutting prices at some point.

A mint condition resale at the Christodora recently traded at a 2004 price. When you add up all these unwanted boutique condo units, not to mention new Bowery inventory that I'll try to get to at some point, I think it's just a matter of time.

Great info, Tenemental. Thank you for keeping up with this over the months. This type of information leads me to believe that there might be some great opportunities to pick up entire distressed properties as things continue to get worse.

-213 E. 2nd St: With only two units, it's an extension of the Carriage House at 211 E. 2nd., but whereas 211 has sold out (assuming the 6th and final unit closes) these have been on the market since Nov 08 with massive price chops.

Thanks to falcogold1 for pointing it out.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/213-east-2-street-manhattan

The Copper Building at 215 Ave. B listed its first 6 of 17 units yesterday. I'm a bit surprised because it doesn't look like there's been work at the site for well over a month. I was wondering if they would pull a Mason Fisk and offer this for less than other neighborhood condos. The smaller, better located and less out-of-place looking 525 East 12th couldn't sell at $926/sf, so I thought this one might try for below 900. Clearly I underestimated the impact of arriving late to the game w/ a 2007 land purchase ($6MM for what at the time was the old Roberto Clemente Medical Center). The studio, 1br and cheaper 2br all hover around $1k/sf. Non of them have outdoor space. The next 2br up the line is asking an insane $1520/sf. There's no floorplan for this one (it does list outdoor space), though there are floorplans for the 3 cheaper units, and they show each unit's orientation within the building. I wonder if this one's been left out becuse it's one of the units w/ a balcony overlooking public housing? (Just east of the building is Campos Houses. Copper's zen garden abuts its parking lot). The larger 2br is asking $1331/sf. Again, no floorplan, but lists outdoor space. There's a 4br, which wasn't orginally planned, and it also has no floorplan (nor does it specify outdoor space), asking $1241/sf. I wonder if they're just throwing this out there to see if there's interest in what would have orginally been two 2brs, hoping to have fewer units to move?

Hmm, I started writing this this morning and now I'm looking at the Elliman listings and all the floorplans are down and the square footage has been inflated in the studio unit. It was 462 and now it's 503.

Elliman has no renderings besides a couple simple drawings of the building and one of the zen garden. Nothing of interiors. I wonder if they're just slow to post them or if the developer is keeping his options open.

Total monthlies are pretty low for unabated new construction, in the range of $1-1.35/sf. Money's being saved w/ a virtual doorman. Taxes, being unabated, are higher than other new developments in the area but lower than you'd expect. Are these projected amounts or confirmed?

I love this piece of broker babble: "Centrally located at the corner of Avenue B and East 13th Street..." Since when does central mean way over on the east side?

Hey Ten: do you know anything about the building at 2nd ave/13th street, above Momofuku Ssam? It looks like it has been heavily renovated but I didn't know if it was going condo, co-op etc.

Thanks!

Ten,
Curiosity killed the cat so I visited 213 E 2nd OH this weekend.
Defects galore! Do you know anymore about this place. The price is ridiculous but, that's not relevent at the moment. I sence from the agent who said things that defied reason that this is on the verge of foreclosure and that is why they are priced at such an enormous discount. That point is debatable. The place is unfinished and has suffered considerable water damage from being left in an unattened way. I also spotted water damage from the ceiling in several places that would indicate roofing problems. If this property was to fall into foreclosure how would I know about that. If this apartment is bought in foreclousure is it 'as is' and then the buyer finishes the job? This place isn't going anywhere unless it, per chance, finds true love.
The very informative broker did point out that if I paid the ask or a little less the place could be mine and at that price I could flip it and make some serious money. I wanted to ask if I could borrow his time machine but bit my tougue instead.
They call this the east village but, during my life it's been called Alphabet City. The problem is that this is a hard one to comp. Any ideas???

Ten, are you on vakes? If so, hopefully some where good...

"The Copper Building at 215 Ave. B listed its first 6 of 17 units yesterday"

When we drove by it yesterday, with all the canvas blowing in the wind I thought it was going to sail away like some Spanish Galleon.

InvestorMan
7 days ago
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Great info, Tenemental. Thank you for keeping up with this over the months. This type of information leads me to believe that there might be some great opportunities to pick up entire distressed properties as things continue to get worse.

My pleasure. I agree - just a matter of time. Put a 2br aside for me...

KHD!

-207 Second Avenue: The building was purchased by long-time NYC investor/broker Lee Odell (I bet 30yrs knows him...) for $5MM in Aug 07. It's a walkup that will eventually have 8 units (2 on each of 4 residential floors) and a roofdeck. As KHD mentioned, there's a restaurant on the ground floor.

Momofuku's popularity complicates searches and I wasn't able to find whether rentals or condos are planned, but between the walkup and the little bit I know about Lee Odell, I'd guess rental.

http://a810-bisweb.nyc.gov/bisweb/JobsQueryByNumberServlet?requestid=2&passjobnumber=110130974&passdocnumber=01

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/125252

http://www.leeodell.com/

falco, thanks for the report. I don't know much more about 213, but I did see a listing for 211's #6 in the Times, though it's not here on StreetEasy. I just noticed that I was mistaken above. 211 has only closed on 4 of 6 units (there was also a resale), leaving the combined Carriage House condos (211 and 213) only 50% sold after 3 years. No wonder the broker's stressed.

http://realestate.nytimes.com/sales/detail/3331-DP90218579/east-village-new-york-ny-usa/PRICE-HIGH-sort/30-p/3331-DP90218579--1106-130172--44-1531168--46-1069498--46-1131977--297-0016413--44-1472892--44-1499810--44-1487684--297-0134625-ls/161-t

"If this property was to fall into foreclosure how would I know about that."

I'm getting more and more curious about that myself. There was an article recently that discussed the new strategy of selling bank-owned buildings as though nothing had changed: same brokers, still using the developer's name. The bank may be willing to go much lower than the original asks, but if they can sell without the buyer being aware, obviously they don't look as desperate. I have a friend with a bid in on a Central Harlem condo studio in a bank-owned building. She got a list of them from a contractor she used on an inspection.

Here's a link to a list of lender's REO departments:

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/wiki/REO_Database_List.asp

30yrs, any advice on the best way to stay abreast of bank-owned properties?

"If this apartment is bought in foreclousure is it 'as is' and then the buyer finishes the job?"

To the best of my knowledge, yes, but someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

"The very informative broker did point out that if I paid the ask or a little less the place could be mine and at that price I could flip it and make some serious money."

It really does boggle the mind. If it were sellable at a higher price, it would be selling at a higher price. The scariest part is that I think many of them actually believe the nonsense they spew, or maybe they no longer know the difference between what they believe and what they say?

"They call this the east village but, during my life it's been called Alphabet City."

I've always thought of Alphabet City as a subset of the EV, but I know other people who distinguish them, and of course others who still call it the Lower East Side or even Loisaida. Obviously, brokers hate the name Alphabet City and it's connotations of drugs and crime. I remember the disgusted look on a young broker's face when I used it once. I wanted to say, "Kid, I was here when you were in Jr. High. I’ll call it whatever the fuck I want."

"The problem is that this is a hard one to comp. Any ideas???"

This is so far out of my price range that I can't say I've done any real research, but I will offer up this true townhouse at 400 East 10th. The whole building went for $1.8MM in Sep 06, finished with a supposedly great renovation and an income producing tenant on the ground floor. The building backs on to one of the most beautiful community gardens in the neighborhood, with gorgeous views from rooms, stairwell and terrace. It blows the offerings at 211 or 213 away.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/house/400-east-10-street-manhattan

An update on Village Green at 311 East 11th Street. A month after the developer told the Daily News he expected 8 units to enter contract as of their publication date, the one unit that actually was in contract fell out. I thought it might be a StreetEasy glitch, but it's not on Corcoran's site either. 3 months, a supposed "uptick," spring selling season is past and no sales. The windows are in, though.

30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
about 3 hours ago
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"The Copper Building at 215 Ave. B listed its first 6 of 17 units yesterday"

When we drove by it yesterday, with all the canvas blowing in the wind I thought it was going to sail away like some Spanish Galleon.

Nice image, 30yrs. Curbed made The Copper Building its Development Du Jour Monday. I don't recall another DDJ making such a bad impression:

http://curbed.com/archives/2009/07/13/development_du_jour_the_copper_building.php

http://curbed.com/tags/development-du-jour

Oh, when I saw it it must have been much more windy, because the canvas was puffed out like square sails set on the jib-mast.

""The very informative broker did point out that if I paid the ask or a little less the place could be mine and at that price I could flip it and make some serious money."

It really does boggle the mind. If it were sellable at a higher price, it would be selling at a higher price. The scariest part is that I think many of them actually believe the nonsense they spew, or maybe they no longer know the difference between what they believe and what they say?"

This definitely falls into my category of "if you are going to lie to me, make it a good lie, because if you tell me bad lies it means you think I am stupid."

"30yrs, any advice on the best way to stay abreast of bank-owned properties?

"If this apartment is bought in foreclousure is it 'as is' and then the buyer finishes the job?"

To the best of my knowledge, yes, but someone please correct me if I'm wrong."

Ok, first of all, when Sponsors default, more often than not the units do not get sold individually "on the steps" (term of art for the foreclosure sale). They get either taken back as a package or sold as a package. One question you have to ask yourself, though, is not only how much work it will take you to finish your unit, should you buy it at the foreclosure sale, but what are the collective owners going to do about the common elements. You know how much an elevator costs? (I don't know what's finished and what's not. Also, if the Sponsor defaults, there's a good chance all of the warranties on things like the roof, boiler etc. are void. And in new construction, all that stuff is pasted together so shit-ily under NORMAL circumstances, I can only imagine how it's done in a building which was let go (this goes to your water damage issue as well).

I really have to say I think a lot of the stuff that's being built in the EV is just plain toxic. It's going to fall apart and the owners are going to have HUGE bills to pay to put stuff back together. And with the small number of units in these buildings, the amounts each unit owner will have to come up with.... many won't be able to. Maybe you'll get lucky, but even at "bargain" prices I wouldn't be buying any of this crap unless I knew I could flip it fast and get the fuck out of Dodge.

""They call this the east village but, during my life it's been called Alphabet City."

I've always thought of Alphabet City as a subset of the EV"

Same here.

Oh - if you wanted to buy, I'd make sure I bought BOTH units, tell the Condo you were going to sue them unless they agreed to an amendment to the offering plan by which you "seceded" from the Condo and had your own 2 unit building.

Thanks Ten! Will check out those links.

It really is amazing what is going on out there, reading all the other posts...

"
tenemental
2 days ago
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An update on Village Green at 311 East 11th Street. A month after the developer told the Daily News he expected 8 units to enter contract as of their publication date, the one unit that actually was in contract fell out. I thought it might be a StreetEasy glitch, but it's not on Corcoran's site either. 3 months, a supposed "uptick," spring selling season is past and no sales. The windows are in, though."

Street Easy shows 3E and 2C as "sold" as of 7/16. True?

Actually. StreetEasy shows both units as being "(NO LONGER AVAILABLE)."

311 East 11th Street #3E
STREETEASY HISTORY
04/17/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $1,303,000.
04/19/2009 Listing is no longer available.
04/30/2009 Re-listed by Corcoran.
07/03/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/16/2009 Listing is no longer available.

311 East 11th Street #2C
STREETEASY HISTORY
04/17/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $729,335.
04/19/2009 Listing is no longer available.
04/30/2009 Re-listed by Corcoran.
06/05/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/16/2009 Listing is no longer available.

There's nothing in the Listings in Contract section where these would belong if they actually were in contract, and they did have a unit there previously, so someone in the office seems to know how to use StreetEasy. That said, maybe someone new is managing the listings and screwed up. Or, they're lying but trying to be subtle about it. Between deception and incompetence it's hard to know what some brokers are up to.

If you look at the cached version of the Village Green page you can see #3E under Listings in Contract before it got pulled:

http://74.125.47.132/search?q=cache:8J59lqTNM7EJ:www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/311-east-11-street-new_york+%22Village+Green+at+311+East+11th+Street%22&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=safari

Curbed has an update on 123 Third Avenue: "At the busy southeast corner of 14th Street and Third Avenue, this 18-story glassy condo tower has finally climbed into view (above). Well, bits and pieces of it have. So close to our old friend One Ten 3rd, 123 Third will, according to the developer's website, have 48 units and be done in 2010. We shall see."

http://curbed.com/archives/2009/07/17/construction_watch_signs_of_life_on_14th_street_in_tribeca.php

http://orangemgmt.com/

Update on Village Green at 311 East 11th Street. As of 7/18 there are 6 units listed in contract.

Just a quick update. There was some serious construction activity today at 92 East 7th Street. Also, I hadn't mentioned a site at 25 Ave. D between 3rd and 4th because I couldn't find any info other than a stop work order. Well, it was the only Alphabet City contribution to the stalled developments map (somewhat surprising), which is too bad, as its fencing pushes the sidewalk detour out into the street.

Took a quick spin through the above buildings' listings and, Village Green aside, found no new sales activity. The Flowebox Building's one remaining unit, 3W (either an unsold original or a tragic resale) was supposedly in contract but now it's back to open houses. 434 East 10th pulled its last listing 2 months ago. The Theatre Condominium pulled its last listing 2 weeks ago. 428 East 10th Street's listing is back. #4A at 32 Clinton Street has fallen out of contract, so they're back to 0.

The Copper Building at 215 Avenue B is showing signs of desperation:

"Our First Buyers Rewards!!! The first four buyers to sign a contract at the Copper Building, will have all their Common Charges and Taxes paid for the first TWO Years!"

"New Construction. Private Presale Before Wide Release!"

The listings have been up at the Times and StreetEasy; the release is not going to get any wider. Still the only renderings are a mediocre 3D mock-up of the zen garden and some 2D drawings of the building. No kitchens, baths, roof deck? Can they really not afford a graphic designer?

This post by EV Grieve has some great photos demonstrating the building's proximity to the Campos Plaza projects.

http://evgrieve.com/2009/05/ghost-in-you-looking-at-215-ave-b.html

via EV Grieve, Curbed:

http://evgrieve.com/2009/07/what-first-four-buyers-get-at-copper.html

http://curbed.com/archives/2009/07/27/specials_on_east_village_copper.php

-75 1st Avenue: Currently a very deep hole just south of the Rite Aid on the corner of E. 5th St. It's grown over with vegetation and there's a stop work order posted to the construction fencing. The back of the Rite Aid has been stripped. The contractor on the signage is New York Mid Rise Construction, Inc., if that gives you any idea of the (one-time?) plan.

The SAVE THE LOWER EAST SIDE! blog had this in October 08:

75 1st Avenue
Developer plans to build a 171-foot tall tower on a tiny 24-foot wide lot. It's illegal to build higher than 100 feet on such a narrow lot, but they are digging their foundation anyway.

http://savethelowereastside.blogspot.com/2008/10/troubling-developments.html

Curbed had this tipster post back in April 07:

EAST VILLAGE—Let's kick off with some cryptic development news. A tipster reports, "some condos are on the come up at 75 1st Ave [at East 5th St.] in Manhattan. They removed the building that was there already. I know the prop. owner, will keep you posted." [CurbedWire Inbox]

http://curbed.com/archives/2007/04/19/curbedwire_first_avenue_cryptic_illegal_bedford_lot_save_the_middle_east.php

StreetEasy shows it changing hands twice in 04 and once in 05:

Recorded Sales
04/04/2005 (Commercial Unit) $3,700,000
11/12/2004 (Entire Building) $3,000,000
08/17/2004 (Entire Building) $2,500,000

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/75-1-avenue-manhattan

"The Copper Building at 215 Avenue B is showing signs of desperation: "

I still think if they add a spinnaker to the mainsail it might end up on 3rd Ave by the time the first closing occurs.

What's really amazing that a quick survey of the EV developments are still asking in excess od 1000 sq/ft. For many the economic times and their location have yet to settle into the grey matter of the developers. A conversation with more than one developer reviels an unyeilding optomism in both the neighborhood and the value of their RE holdings. I hate to say it but, if your paying more that 700sq/ft in the EV your going to be under water B4 you know it.

Most of the developers in the EV are small time guys who are "big believers" in the neighborhood. They have way too much emotional and actual capital invested in their "children". Fortunately for them, recent history has shown the buyers of EV condos to be similarly off kilter in their belief systems.

30yrs,
given your experience, do you see $$$per sq/ft droping any time in the near future in the EV or will this also be a slow grind downard???

"Fortunately for them, recent history has shown the buyers of EV condos to be similarly off kilter in their belief systems."

I think "somewhat recent" would be more appropriate. It was true during the pre-construction selling of 110 3rd Ave through the bulk of the A Building, but by the last leg of the A Building's sales things had definitely turned. In the last year or so developers (of mostly boutique condos) have been having a much harder time.

"A conversation with more than one developer reviels an unyeilding optomism in both the neighborhood and the value of their RE holdings."

Is that real optimism, or the sad, creepy thing that happens to too many people who sell things for a living and no longer remember the difference between the truth and the pitch? Clearly they aren't optimistic at the Copper Building with those ridiculous incentives. Just did some quick math on one of the units there and the incentives total a whopping 2% discount.

Ten,
where do you see the sq/ft price going and in what time frame.
We will carve nothing in stone so, please feel free to pontificate.

Tenemental, thanks for your insight into the East Village. Your post was thoughtful, informative, and very much appreciated. Thanks for your many contributions to SE.

"30yrs,
given your experience, do you see $$$per sq/ft droping any time in the near future in the EV or will this also be a slow grind downard???"

I see an extreme resistance to downward price pressure and many unsold buildings becoming rentals (many with new ownership). I think there is some chance that EV condo buyers will never get the price breaks they are waiting for - the units will either sell at high prices (which I doubt) or the projects will go away (as condos) or people will buy bulk and rent. The problem being that in general the types of workouts which get done to save the larger buildings take too much finesse/work/influence to get done in 12 unit or less buildings in an area most of the banks will see as a speculative loss best written off and forgotten about.

Once again the East Village doesn't quite get swept up in an upturn. Oh well, maybe it will enable it to retain its character. And there may be some decent rentals.

"Oh well, maybe it will enable it to retain its character"

That ship sailed a long time ago.

I don' know where you're hanging out in the East Village, but i disagree. The LES, that's another story altogether. I've been frequenting the East Village since 1985, and while there have certainly been changes, it hasn't morphed nearly as much as other neighborhoods. Perhaps because the limited amount of development, perhaps because the delays in the City's decisions regarding zoning changes.

Yeah, I think it depends on which parts of the East Village you're talking about. St Marks will never be what it once was, same for the Bowery, but the further you get from transportation, the more I feel the neighborhood's retained its character from the past few decades. It's much harder to infiltrate an area if you can't get to it as easily. I see this is a plus for the neighborhood - you get proximity to more prominent retail and the whole Union Sq "scene" but also benefit from the smaller scale of the quieter parts of the neighborhood. I quite like that.

"I don' know where you're hanging out in the East Village, but i disagree. The LES, that's another story altogether. I've been frequenting the East Village since 1985, and while there have certainly been changes, it hasn't morphed nearly as much as other neighborhoods. Perhaps because the limited amount of development, perhaps because the delays in the City's decisions regarding zoning changes."

perhaps some of it is that I've been hanging out there much longer, but I really don't see how you can see a HUGE turnover of restaurants where prices have more than tripled and say "not much change". Go to KGB one night and engage any of the older patrons or the owner there on this subject and see what they have to say. And i think if you had a video of Avenue A for every night of the week for 1985 and today and watched them on 2 screens next to each other, you'd see how truly big the change has been. Even more so for Avenue B or C.

restaurants turn over everywhere, and that doesn't mean the neighborhood changes entirely, and no neighborhood stands still, that would be stagnation. to some extent the changes on avenue b and c have been for the better, and there are still some wonderful bars on the side streets that are evocative of my not-so-distant past. change doesn't necessarily equal an absence of character, which is what your snarky comment earlier implied, and what i was responding to, i certainly never said there's been no change. at 46 i guess i'm not ancient like you, so i'll have to defer to your longer memory. this area still seems very vibrant, diverse, young and old, midwestern and polish transplants, guitar stores and tattoo parlors, dives and ethnic restaurants. yes, there are now wine bars as well, but i enjoy myself a good wine bar once in awhile.

i recall the alphabet city of 1985 quite well. i tried to get my now-husband then-boyfriend to look at renting an apartment between avenue c and d in 1988. as i dragged him around the neighborhood he told me i was out of my mind. i told him he was too uptight. we settled on an apartment in hell's kitchen, across from a crack park.

I'm sorry, but our definitions of "character" are way too different. Mine is the one you find in the dictionary. You are arguing that change isn't bad. That's a different argument than whether or not there has been change. yes, restuarants turn over all the time. but there's a big difference if they are replaced by "like kind" or by places like Death & Co, Le Souk, etc. which type NEVER existed anywhere in the EV of old. The EV of old was places like Odessa, Vesleka, KGB, etc. now, you can make the arguments that the changes are for the better, but that's not the same as saying the changes didn't happen. And to be even more precise, you are correct that change doesn't mean an absence of character, but it ABSOLUTELY does mean a CHANGE of character.

My guess is that we just see things differently and that you like what the EV has turned into (which is totally your right to do) and I don't. But just because you like it better, doesn't mean the character hasn't changed in a major way. It's just changed in a way you want it to change. i think one proof of my point would be talking to your BF again about moving to an apartment between avenue c and d today and see what his reaction is. I know for 100% certainty that for most, it would be majorly different. i need no more proof than that to show that the character of teh neighborhood has greatly changed.

nothing hasn't changed. i said it hadn't morphed NEARLY AS MUCH as the other neighborhoods. and it still has character, and it still has polish restaurants, serving gloppy food.

pedantic.

30yrs, how would you say the character has changed in Alphabet City? Is this more a question of safety than actual character change? Some of those far-off blocks really don't look all that different from back then. It's more the characters that hang around them. aboutready is right that the old-school feel of Polish restaurants, etc is still palpable if you pick your spots.

"old-school feel of Polish restaurants, etc is still palpable if you pick your spots."

and those spots used to be everything East of Second Avenue. Now you have to go searching to "pick the right spots". I'll give 2 very concrete examples of major change since the concept as a whole seems to be too broad?

Avenue A between 13th St and 14th St.
Avenue C between 9th St and 10th St.

Compare each of those blocks 1985 and today.

And now tack on ALL OF EAST 13th St East of 3rd Avenue.
And http://www.mrbellersneighborhood.com/story.php?storyid=443.

http://www.nytimes.com/1985/10/06/realestate/if-you-re-thinking-of-living-in-the-east-village.html

"Despite its problems, the East Village has in recent years emerged as perhaps the most artistically avant-garde neighborhood in the city. Its boutiques are stocked with kamikaze clothing and its galleries with doomsday art, adding yet another layer of diversity to its traditional ethnic heterogeneity.

Among the more popular galleries are the Bockley at 66 East Seventh Street, Ben Ari Arts at 11 Avenue A, and the Cinque Gallery at 2 Astor Place. Boutiques include Nasty Habits at 102 St. Mark's Place, and the 5 & Dime at 208 East 7th Street. JoDean Tipton at JoDean's, 111 St. Mark's Place, conducts fashion tours on Saturday afternoons."

In 1985, the East Village was headed towards being the "new Soho" gallery wise. Galleries were popping up almost everywhere. How many are there now?

"Mark Rudolph, a free-lance video producer, is such a person. Six months ago, he saw an ad in FYI, the Time Inc. house organ, and eventually moved into a two-bedroom apartment in a newly rehabilitated building at 652 East Sixth Street, near Avenue C. His rent is $900 a month.

In the blocks adjoining his building are dozens of lots, some occupied by squatters living in tents and shacks. ''But you've got to live somewhere,'' said Mr. Rudolph, expressing the feeling of thousands who will not live anywhere but Manhattan."

Point to me all the blocks this describes now?

"To some people in the East Village, the major issue is how 500 city-owned properties there, mostly dilapidated buildings or vacant lots, are to be redeveloped."

That's right, in 1985 there were ***500** city owned shells, lots, etc. How many are there now which aren't fairly fully landscaped gardens?

"The first test of that expectation may come next Thursday when the Board of Estimate is to receive proposals for 178-184 East Second Street between Avenues A and B, a property long empty and boarded up."

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/178-east-2-street-manhattan

Long empty and boarded up to $1,000 a Sf... and there's no major change in the character of the nabe?

30yrs, great articles (the first one is disorienting but really entertaining if you stick with it). Look, I don't think either of us is saying that things haven't changed. As aboutready said, nothing can stay static (it gets stale and goes very much against the grain of the village's artistic spirit anyway), and you're right, you do have to go searching block by block to see some of the old-school touches. But the area still has some of that grit, which is something you just don't find at all anymore in the West Village, Soho, Nolita, even the UWS to a large degree. I think that's significant.

I agree that if you look for it, you can still find some of the old grit, but let's be clear on what my original premise was:

"'Oh well, maybe it will enable it to retain its character'

That ship sailed a long time ago."

i never said the EV no longer had any grime. The issue, in my mind, was the amount of change which has occurred in the "core" essence of the EV. *I* didn't even talk about "relative to other neighborhoods"; I spoke in the absolute. But if we want to even talk about relative change, I think that there are many neighborhoods which have undergone significantly less change in their "character" as neighborhoods (in Manhattan), and that the EV is at the other end: since 1985 I truly believe that there is significantly more change in *character* on a relative basis than most Manhattan neighborhoods. For example, in terms of *CHARACTER* of the neighborhood, there has been relatively little change in the "Prime" Village.

I'll cheat on one and say if we want to talk about Alphabet City (56 square blocks - Ave D to 1st Ave; Houston to 14th St), compare the change in character of the neighborhood of the same footprint directly to the North (14th to 28th Streets, Avenue D to 1st Ave), I don't even think there's a discussion. (hey, I admitted it was a bit of a cheat).

But take other same sized areas (50 to 60 square blocks). 3rd ave to 5th Ave in any 15 to 20 block long section from 59 to 86th. Has the *CHARACTER* of any of those changed very significantly? Chelsea (not West Chelsea, traditional Chelsea). Aside from spots along Amsterdam. most of the UWS below 86th? (yes, there's lots of different stores and restaurants, but no where near the sea change of the EV).

Perhaps we're talking about different things. But when I see people saying the the character of the EV hasn't significantly changed since 1985, it just runs SO counter to what I know to be the case that it gets me going. Let me give one anecdote: A friend of mine is an ex-junkie. A few years ago, she fell off the wagon and wanted to cop, so she went around first and first, where you could always find whatever you needed with abandon. She found nothing. As she's standing there, an elderly woman walks out of her building and they exchange looks, and make that connection that every junkie has with every other junkie (somehow they can ALWAYS recognize each other). The woman takes ONE look at her and says "Honey, they aren't hear anymore. You have to go up to 110th and [whatever]". Perhaps others can't see what i see in that story as to how much the neighborhhod has changed.

Changes Character???

Let me make this simple. In the late 1970's we stood on avenue A and DARED kids to walk to avenue D.
There were few takers and even fewer that returned to tell the tale.
Scarey is not a big enough word for it.
Avenue B and 3rd street is the first place anyone ever offered me 'works' (1977-78). I asked around school for a week if anyone knew what type of drug 'works' was. I imagined that it might be a drug that helps you concentrate and work more efficiantly. A week of probeing revieled that 'works' is the paraphinallia associated heroine use.
Big dissapointment...
That character has diminished on some small level.

falcogold1: "Ten, where do you see the sq/ft price going and in what time frame. We will carve nothing in stone so, please feel free to pontificate."

falco, one concrete thing I know is that 525 E. 12th wasn't able to sell at $926/sf, though it's true it was only at that price for a short time. A unit 1 floor up hasn't sold at $974/sf in almost 3 months (and it's been on the market at different prices for a year and a half). 525 is a decent looking building from the outside, supposedly nice on the inside (I haven't seen it) on a pretty good block (the park is attractive, I can't say first-hand how loud the kids get) and has a usable balcony in the back. How does that bode for the Copper Building, which looks very out of place, is on a noisier, less attractive block and has some balconies overlooking the projects? Or 643 E. 11th, with those unusable teaser balconies and that dreary Mitchell-Lama tower lording over the block from the nearby corner? Many of the buildings described above are no better off. At the very least that puts prices for these buildings below $900/sf, likely well below. Look at 434 E. 10th, it couldn't sell at $770/sf.

30yrs mentioned that smaller buildings would likely become rentals or maybe even lie fallow rather than become bank-owned fire sales, and I certainly appreciate his insight, but take a look at 161 West 133rd Street in Central Harlem. It's currently bank-owned (I only know because a friend is bidding on a unit there) and the new asking prices are 28-37% below the original, and they're negotiating. It a 17-unit building, same as the Copper (which, BTW, has been a couple months w/ no construction activity).

I don't really know what or when the bottom will be, just that there's further to fall - much further in many cases. I'm bearish on NYC real estate in general, obviously, but I think the EV, and particularly ABC has it's own challenges. One or more of these buildings will fail, and when that happens it will impact the local market as a whole, co-ops too.

I've said before that I think Williamsburg plays a role in this, and let's just say that I think WB has some very serious challenges ahead. Look at the number of people over the past decade or longer who chose WB as a similar but more affordable alternative to the EV. How many more will be drawn away from the EV market as prices there fall even further?

Another thing I've mentioned before is that people were able to overlook the rough edges - hell, sketchiness - of some blocks during boom times. I don't think anyone today expects to buy onto a questionable block and have it turn around any time soon. There are still issues with crime, and they really escalated a few months back (it's been years since I asked my girlfriend to "be careful"). Fortunately, things seem to have quieted down, but anyone curious about the underbelly of the neighborhood should check out http://neithermorenorless.blogspot.com/. The May 2009 archive is particularly troubling. The comments at https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=30373593&postID=8719884673572851827 are interesting, and the situation led to this blog: http://abcneighbors.blogspot.com/2009/06/take-back-neighborhoods.html. I let my dog lead me through Campos Plaza on a late night walk and there was a head-down, hood-up, hands-in-pockets figure in every doorway. Similar late-night scene on Ave D.