Example of Natgure of this market

What a close!
Shape of things to come???

now, we're starting to see reality. sets a new level--- sellers will say crazy sale...doesn't mean anything. no buyer in their right mind bids more than 10% than this. market freezes again.

what do you think it would have sold for in 2007?

i think the first round of discovery here, which will reflect contracts signed in FEB/MARCH, will be a bit surprising because they will be closing at a time that confidence seems to be higher with the equity rally and reflation trade on. Recall the time & place some of these deals signed into contract. So the next few months will be interesting and I wonder how discovery will impact future buy side moves. I would not be surprised to see deals signed in the last 4-7 weeks or so occur at a level better than those signed in FEB/MARCH...crazy what a stock rally can do to both buyer and seller psychology.

Back in FEB/MARCH, sellers were hitting bids, buyers werent bidding or if they did, bid uber low. Today, deals are happening down from peak, based on price point, but the fear factor is not in play and the seller may not be as motivated to hit an uber low bid as they were 3-4 months ago. Very interesting indeed.

well 10D, another classic 7, sold for 2.88M in mid 2007.

staying with same line, 3B, which needed TLC, sold for 1.85M in late 2008 - how do you value 6 floors in this area for this product type?

at least 100K in my opinion.

i would say more...150K

ok...i'll buy that. (just kidding) i think you're take on more recent activity is exactly right...wonder if a bunch of deals start to fall apart as more numbers appear. i could not imagine being a buyer in this territory with a deal in the works at a number above a recent comp. time to start mumbling and drooling at the co-op board meeting.

ud, to me the value between the third floor and the 9th floor is bigger than just $150K. If it's the back of the building, it can make a huge difference in terms of light (third floor would most likely face wall), and in front of the building it makes quite a difference in terms of noise.

"staying with same line, 3B, which needed TLC, sold for 1.85M in late 2008 - how do you value 6 floors in this area for this product type?"

"i would say more...150K "

but how much for condition? another 150K? from what it looks like, 9B needed kit and baths, but that's it, not a total reno like 3B, but I'll confess to not having seen either one in person.

So you've got 3B at $1.85M with an October contract and adjusting for both condition and floor a relative value of 9B at ?$2.15? (or at least $2.0 just for floor) and 9B going into contract in March for $1.5.

This is all very odd considering it seems the "consensus" is that by march there was already an uptick, but on these 2 transactions you've got an apparent 25% to 30% downtick in just 5 months? it seems to me that one of these sales is probably an outlier 9or both), the questions is can we make any really substantive conclusions given the huge disparity not only in prices between these 2 units, but in the general thoughts about what happened to the market in that time frame?

Although if it were to explain anything, it might be that the real reason sales activity picked up in Feb/march was DUE TO lower prices?

but...the real question is what if anything this sale and any others like it will mean to the market. as i said above, i know if i were a buyer in final stages of contract, i would be freaked out by this.

Remember we were waiting for some FEAR MONTHS sales to close? Remember the thread on 1165 Park, unit 15C? A classic 8, renovated, S/E exposures on 15th floor with open views!

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/211308-coop-1165-park-avenue-carnegie-hill-new-york

Bamm, great example of what happened here in FEB-MARCH when fear was high. Bid hit 20% below last asking price, at 2.8M

Expect more of these Armageddon sales to clear. The question is, do these become outliers because of the unique nature of the markets when fear was high OR the new benchmark for coparables to be based on?

explain to me again, particularly in the mid-hi range (which is the way i think you categorize this price) why prices should or are any stronger now than in the so called fear period. the only thing that seems to be better is that less people think we are going to completely collapse because we haven't so far.

tell me again about geithner and the toxic assets. now he says its not so important?

markets are not rational. regardless of what may or may not be looming, whether geithner's plans have interest, etc.. markets may be ridden with fear or confidence. It doesnt mean the markets are always right. Hence, they are not always rational.

With that said, real estate is all about the buyers and all bout their confidence in the asset. Yes, sell side motivation/desperation plays a role too, but in the end, its about the bids. Fact is, go back to the period that I refer to as fear months, and bids just were not coming in, only at very low levels to offset the huge uncertainty out there with fear high and stock indexes low and people feeling very nervous. Transaction levels reflected these emotions. Fast forward to MAY/JUNE, and you saw a change; for a number of reasons. Stocks rallied, prices came down, rates were low, deals were to be had. People felt a bit more confident to put oney to work, bids started coming in.

Are you a broker? If not, its hard to really explain it because when you are working full time in it, you see it. The change was dramatic from armageddon to reflation. I always questioned it and the sustainability of the countertrend pickup in activity that I thought was embedded in a longer term adjustment.

Traffic is starting to turn again, as seasonal elemnt kicks in but go back a month or so, and the mid-high end simply was not as pressured (way more interest and bids coming in) as it was in FEB-MARCH or in the above case, early April. If you look at stocks, the green shoots and rally really impacted msm in late April, May, and June. Now, the rally fizzled and once again people are wondering if more pain really is ahead of us? Its crazy to me the emotions that people have with equity market moves. Amazing. Stocks can be down 40% in 2 years, but because they are up 40% in a few months from lows, it doesnt matter where stocks came from during their highs, only where it came from at their lows. People think stocks are always right and indicative of overall health in economy - not the case

well i could answered your question in a much simpler way, sorry - buy side confidence increased and buy side interest spiked from being virtually non-existent (especially relative for the season) for OCT2008 - MARCH2009.

cant deny that, but I could question its sustainability and depth. If stocks didnt rally 40%, and say they muddled around the lows for the past 4 months, trust me, you would not have seen such an increase in buy side demand for May, June.

very clear explanation....no, i am not a broker or even close. i must admit i don't understand the phenomena that you are describing....frankly, I cannot imagine making decisions of this type based on such short term emotion---its one thing to pop in and out of stocks (not something that is interesting to me either but at least understandable) but with something as long term and fundamentally illiquid as real estate, i guess i am a conservative at heart.

the thought of what will happen to the real estate market if the general mood sours around a stock market pull back is kind of scary to contemplate.

Interesting connection to stocks and real estate. I think Noah is right that there is a connection. However, I think this is a second order effect. The likelihood is higher that the primary response during this period has been a combination of:
1) widespread recognition of the bubble, especially by high end speculators, and a rush to liquidate and preserve gains
2) the general sense of economic collapse -- beyond the stock market, but the stock market is an indicator.
3) the recognition at the highest levels that things have stabilized but a recovery especially in real estate will be a 5 to 10 year process -- recovery, NOT bubble style appreciation.
4) the tighter loan market, especially at the higher end.

Noah says several of these things in his posts generally, and I think he is right in hitting these points as first order. The stock market recovery connects to points 2 and 3 above, so in that sense it is a factor. However, this recovery is nebulous or unstable even in the short run, so a repeat of the earlier phenomena could occur if the sentiment moves as dramatically as it could. However, the clearest signal of the collapse in housing is not in the price indicators so much as in the volume.
There is recovery in the volume but as Noah points out at his site, this is also differential across price levels. Interestingly the market is doing best in the segment where loans are still relatively easier to get. However, the donward pressure from above is going to change the market. I had a thread called approx "When will I get a 3br 2ba in the UWS for 1.25 million". This was derided by many bulls and I was not seeing much decent come down in that direction. This is still sort of true, but the choices have improved dramatically. In the process I learned that the apt I currently live in is a Classic 7 not a 6 -- ha so my target shipped upwards. Now there are at least 2 renovated UWS apts that are ~ 2000 sq ft classic 7's that are at the 1.5 million mark after steep declines. Relative to 2007-2008 this is a huge surprise. But it is the top pushing down into the "affordable" market, rather than a collapse of buying ability for the schmuks with regular steady jobs who can't afford the speculative apartments. If I were a realtor, I would target that type of client since in the next few years that is where the high probability sales will be.
So, soon my 1.25 marker and my apt choice are likely to be reconciled.

"Traffic is starting to turn again, as seasonal elemnt kicks in but go back a month or so, and the mid-high end simply was not as pressured (way more interest and bids coming in) as it was in FEB-MARCH or in the above case, early April. If you look at stocks, the green shoots and rally really impacted msm in late April, May, and June. Now, the rally fizzled and once again people are wondering if more pain really is ahead of us?"

I think it's going to be really hard to have a 6 month period (July thru December) of no traffic/no sales (if that's what happens) and not have some downward price movement since over that long a time period, especially starting from where we are starting from, you ARE going to have desperation/panic/etc. sales.

UD, sorry i haven't read this entire thread, but i did read your recent piece on UD. I don't know if I agree entirely, but it's based on the recorded sales i've been pulling up. i actually troll through all recently recorded sales about once a week, and I'm not seeing any price stabilization for those that closed recently. some of the estate sales have been breathtaking.

There are different types of fear and desperation. The fear that the sky will fall upon us all has abated, but the fear of the unemployed or underemployed who can't pay the bills is still alive and not so well, and with over 10,000 properties still hanging on out there, and brokers with tales of buyers unable to complete deals, i'm fairly certain there's still quite a bit of desperation, particularly in the larger-than-1 bedroom market.

i recently saw a studio listed for $200k, haven't seen that in ages (not harlem).

btw, i know this has been answered before, but how long is the deadline to file the recorded sales info, and then how long (approx) before it gets into the system? curious, because i know the units at the lucida started closing many weeks ago, and none are showing up.

"i know this has been answered before, but how long is the deadline to file the recorded sales info, and then how long (approx) before it gets into the system? curious, because i know the units at the lucida started closing many weeks ago, and none are showing up."

Remember there's a big difference between Coop's and Condo's since Condo's are Real Property and Coop's are "personalty". For Real Estate, NY is a race-notice state as far as recording goes. So it's in the responsible party's interest to record ASAP, because if someone else is a "Bona Fide" purchaser (they bought the same piece from the same seller, who was double dealing, was for fair value and had no reason to believe their transaction wasn't for real), the first to record the deed gets it, not the earlier dated deed. But EVERYONE gets title insurance on RE in NY, so the Title Company does the recording and they usually do it damn fast. But one of the issues with NEW condo's is the tax lot apportionment. Remember, the only block and lot number used to be for the whole building. When it goes Condo, each unit must be apportioned it's own block & lot number (Condo's start with lot 1001 - so if you see a 1XXX lot number, you know the piece is a Condo). So, for new condos, there's no existing block and lot number in the Records Office, so it can take longer for new Condo's to show up in the system because the office where the lots get apportioned (approved) is not the same as where they get recorded. But the legal requirement for FILING transfer documents is 30 days.

For Coop's, the recording is really of the Tax documents and does not truly reflect ownership, which is whoever has their hot little hands on the Stock and Proprietary Lease. Most people don't get Title Insurance on Coop's (we ALWAYS do), so the parties agree on who s going to file the documents at the closing (very often the seller's attorney). There is still the 30 deadline, but no race-notice and no Title Company insuring it happens ASAP (no pun intended). So it's a bigger variable as to when the docs make their way to the Records Office.

How long any of the documents get into the system varies from borough to borough and how busy the office is with volume of transactions. If you want to get a good idea of how long the process is taking, when you go to ACRIS, rather than looking at the Document Image (the second radio button "IMG"), use the "DET" radio button (document details) and go down to the fourth line where you will find the "Document Date" (which is supposed to be the date the document was created) and then next the "Recorded/Filed Date".

Right now in Manhattan for Coops, things appear to be pretty snappy. Take a look at the "Recently Closed" 201 East 66th Street #10H on the front page of SE. The closing was 6/30/09 and the filing was 7/7/09. I think that's pretty good considering it used to take up to 3 or 4 months for stuff to show up.

Condos seem to be doing well also, taking as a random example 39 EAST 29TH STREET, 2B, which shows a Document Date (closing) of 5/20/2009 and a RECORDED/FILED date of 6/4/2009.

aboutready - well keep in mind that now we are seeing deals close that were signed into contract around end of MARCH-mid APRIL or so - perhaps a bit longer than that. Loan underwriting was a bit backlogged from that treasury plunge like 7-8 weeks ago, but for past few weeks I think it has started to clear up and processing is getting closer to normal.

The rally hit its most recent top in mid June, and it was the move from mid May to mid June after the initial snap back from lows, that really got the MSM hooked on the green shoots reflation trade! So contracts signed during this 30-40 day period or so, really is what I am talking about in terms of pricing OUT of fear that was there feb/march..

So, we need to wait for these guys to close, around AUG-SEPT or so, to see what I was talking about!

Not sure about the deadline for ACRIS, sorry