WSJ 6-30-09
Northeast U.S., So Far Spared, Could Still Face Home Price Pain

By JOHN JANNARONE
For many U.S. homeowners, crisis hasn't meant urgency. Just as potential buyers have waited, many would-be sellers facing paper losses have not been forced to act. The standoff shouldn't be confused with stability.

The housing freefall slowed in April. Prices dropped 18.1% year on year, according to S&P/Case-Shiller's index of 20 cities. They were lower in every city, but economists were encouraged by slightly more modest declines compared with March -- a possible sign the market is near a bottom.

In some overbuilt cities, foreclosures have helped clear inventory while rapidly bringing prices back to reality. Phoenix and Las Vegas, for instance, have seen prices fall back nearly to 2000 levels.

But markets like Boston and New York, where prices rose during the boom, albeit not as drastically as the Sun Belt, have slid much slower. Prices in Boston are still 48% above 2000 levels and New York's prices are 71% higher. Valuations in both cities are only about 20% off their peaks.

Would-be sellers in the Northeast appear to be taking their time. There, the inventory of homes for sale has increased just 17% since the end of 2005, before the market bubble burst, according to the Census Bureau. In the West, meanwhile, inventories have risen 74% over the same time period.

Transaction volumes tell a similar story. The National Association of Realtors says existing home sales in the Northeast fell 10% year on year in April, while they increased 17% in the West.

Home prices in the less overbuilt Northeast are unlikely to correct as sharply as in some other markets. But further pain has likely been delayed, not avoided.

RE markets are very slow to correct and NYC no different. So many have delayed selling their places, "til things get better", that it will likely take considerably longer til we know where the bottom really is. GS, DB, Ivy Zelman etc. all predicting further falls. However, I suppose the debate about whether buying now is like catching a falling knife or not, will continue.

Or not.

Just another article on speculation.

the reason why inventory has not risen as much in the NY metro area is because, unlike out west, you don't have banks flooding the market with foreclosures.

Yet.

and where do you think all of these foreclosures are going to come from? Manhattan has a very low foreclosure rate. Trust me, if there were tons of foreclosures in prime Manahttan, I would trample anyone who is between me and the closing table.

From people and companies who cannot afford to pay their mortgages or loans. Google it. It is trickling in over the last couple of months and you are a little early to be making rosy predictions on this topic.

*yawn*

unfortuantely wonderbiy, columbia county is not here at the present moment. Do you have a phone number or e-mail address he can use to contact you if he wishes to use your "services"?

The_President, you aren't allowed to speak to me. You're from Jersey.

Ew.

We could still face a home price gain?

Buy now or be priced out forever!

Good article.

"and where do you think all of these foreclosures are going to come from? Manhattan has a very low foreclosure rate. Trust me"

LOL. I seem to recall, Alpine, that you felt the market wasn't going to decline AT ALL in the NYC area. Now that we're down 12-20% (depending on whose esimate you use), you say it won't fall further, and we should "trust you".

Let's all say it together: REALT-WHORE! REALT-WHORE!

"Now that we're down 12-20% (depending on whose esimate you use), you say it won't fall further, and we should "trust you"."

We're down 25-30%.

no, we are NOT down 25-30%. First off, according to the NY Case Shiller Index (High Tier), we are down 18% from the index's June 2006 peak. Second, there was a Reuters article just the other day that said we are down 20%.

Whatever douche.

Thanks for the article Sir Winston! Catching a falling knife is like juggling chainsaws or bringing a knife to a gunfight.

come on shit face, you can do better than that.

http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/corcoran-ceo-says-30-percent-cuts-make-sales-ivanka-trump-corcoran-pamela-liebman-jonathan-miller-dottie-herman

Now will you shut the fuck up? Or will you tell you know better than this woman, who has anything but incentive to say the market is bad.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - With apartments piling up on the market in Manhattan, isn't this the time to snap up the real estate equivalent of buying Champagne on a beer budget?

The savviest minds on Wall Street say it's not.

Even though prices have fallen around 20 percent as Wall Street's ranks have been thinned on fallout from the financial crisis and recession, top economists, strategist and analysts at the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit said they would be in no hurry to purchase a slice of the Big Apple.

and if you seriously think prices are down 30%, then how about finding us an apt. in prime Manhattan that has sold for 30% less than it's original sale price? Go ahead, find me one. I dare you. And I'm only interested in REPEAT sales. Don't waste my time with 2 differetn apts. that are "similar."

Alpo you are countering a woman in the local market with a generalized Reuters article? Don't try to task me up you piece of shit. You are one of the recognized idiots on this board. How does that make you feel? I mean multiple people refer to you as a dope daily. No one has once complimented you on your additions.

Here you go again with your 'prime Manhattan' bullshit.

"no, we are NOT down 25-30%. First off, according to the NY Case Shiller Index (High Tier), we are down 18% from the index's June 2006 peak."

Remember, this is the same alpine that about, uh, say 20 hours ago, complained that the Case Shiller was NOT a valid thing to look at because it wasn't Manhattan.

Nothing like a good shot of hypocrisy.

But, try again!

Exactly, wasn't he all uppity about White Plains not being Manhattan. Listen, I don't expect the average dope to extend their mind on this site to imagine what the clearing price is right now for new listings. However, in order to participate, I think the last published report from Miller on Q1 should lay to rest ideas that we have not fallen at least 20-25%. The extra 5-10% is between me and Pamela above.

Agreed.

Lets also remember that this is the same alpine who said "Manhattan is not down 20%. Show me just one example of an apartment selling for 20% less. SHOW ME JUST ONE".

Would be funny if it wasn't so sad.

why don't you just move to CT already asshole?

The rapier wit comes out.

The bi-coastal bottom shelf village idiot - Jersey and Hell's Kitchen.

LOL...look at how far Alpine/President has degenerated. A year ago, he was saying "buy now or be priced out forever!". Two months ago he was saying, Alfred E. Neumann like, "What decline?". Now he's saying "We're ONLY down 20%, a-hole, not 30%!!".

Realt-whores like Alpine are just coming to grips with the fact that the gravy train is over for a decade or more. Since most of these people have no discernible skills, I expect that more than a few will end up polishing someone's knob just to make rent...

Dogface Alpo is a broker?

I'm not a realtor shit face.

Wow. If you were a broker, at least you could lay off some of the stupidity in the form of bias.

Yeah, so you've been telling us. You're just talking up every dogshit piece of real estate for fun, right? You have noooooo vested interest whatsoever, right?? Come off it, a$$hole. You're fooling no one.

"Dogface Alpo is a broker?"

Oh yes. He's a broke-whore who's now a broke whore...

Why do people keep saying we are down 30%?

LIES.

Truth.

it's so obvivous that Rhino is talking to himself under mutliple user names.

Your the guy with multiple names, DogBoy. Tough to take a lot of people agreeing you are stupid, huh?

I don't think there is any reason to refer to a human being as an animal. There are more civil ways to express views on topics including real estate.

who has multiple names?

Alpine/President/DogFace/DogBoy.

lol

Alpo may not have the raw intelligence to qualify as a human.

"Alpo may not have the raw intelligence to qualify as a human."

Alpo. I luv it!