More Evidence the Recession is Over!

as a taxpayer i'm so happy to be giving people money to buy toyotas and hondas.

why should the cash for clunkers program be any different than the rest of our programs, absolutely broke?

You aren't a taxpayer, your husband is.

LOCI what bullshit! What makes a family functional includes al its members. Families act as units in it's contribution to the community and it's demands to the system. If one stays at home, it might actuallybe what allows the other person to make this family's contributions to the system as a taxpayer.

Aren't you a foreigner?

I don't understand how superficial the thinking in our government seems to be?

at $4,500 per car, 1 billion would cover 222,000 vehicles which would represent only about a 10% bump on overall weekly sales not counting for seasonality of new car purchase at all which i assumes skews away from the winter months.

what makes them think that the bulk of these sales wouldn't have happened without the incentive?

as i have said before, lets just start sending checks to everybody every week; better yet lets send prepaid credit cards where you have to use it or lose it.

when i met my husband he was two years in arrears with the IRS. i'm fairly certain the irs has benefitted from my household role. plus, we wouldn't be paying much in the way of taxes if i had not paid for his law school and expenses during law school.

sexism is so passe. LOCI = loutish outdated chauvinistic imbecile.

a foreigner can't have an opinion? you're winning some real prizes for articulation, keep stunning us with that insightful analysis.

cc, have you looked at the charts comparing sales of autos in china vs. the us? very, very interesting. this got some inventory off the lots, and some ready cash to the dealers and automakers. the government seems to be specializing in ready cash these days.

CC, would you have to pay back the credit cards? Or would they just be free money?

i think he's talking about gift cards. i facetiously suggested the same thing last year for Bush's tax rebates. make sure the people spend them. you could send out ones for different stores, a secondary market could be created on e-bay for the trading of them, i'll give you a thousand dollars of bed, bath and beyond for five hundred dollars of best buy and five hundred dollarss of the gap. with transaction fees, of course, to spread the wealth.

actually, now that i think further, i think they should set up the Goldman Sachs Visa gift card. that would serve multiple functions.

"Aren't you a foreigner?"

No, she's a US citizen who lives abroad.

I'm a US citizen who lives on a small island off the east coast of the U.S. So are most of the people on this discussion board.

So by the look of things, GDP might come in positive next quarter. Almost a 5% increase from the 5.6% contraction in Q1.

and this is based on?

columbia - lots of economists predicting + GDP for 3rd quarter. Listening to bberg radio this morning I think they are expecting +2-3%. Inventory restocking is a big driver.

I purchased a dinning set from Crate & Barrel.
There's a 3 month backlog!!!! There's no inventory out there.

WTF!

From what I see, there are many people who are in extremis financially but the rest of the population is just going along as if nothing were happening; a sad, odd dichotomy & it makes me fear that the reset we need for this culture may not happen.

no ericho.. you just have poor taste and they don't stock tom and jerry dining sets in a set of 16 with matching cookware....

try again.

so...bberg radio said +2-3% is why ericho thinks it'll be + 5%? of course, the problem with restocking inventory is what happens when pipeline fills up again? but, of course, if the government is willing to spend a billion a week to drive auto sales, that should help.

drdrd: i think you are right except you're leaving out a significant constituency: the people with their head in the sand. and, the reset is happening whether we like it or not.

CC - I think you missed a decimal place somewhere. 222,000 cars = about 2% of total annual sales at the current rate of about 10.5 million/year. So it adds a whole weeks worth of sales, not a 10% increase in a weeks sales, more like a 25% increase in a months sales (so not huge, but significant).

On the whole though, it does not make a huge difference if some of those people were going to buy a new car anyway in the next year or so.

At best I think it encourages someone who was going to replace an old vehicle that they do it with a New car rather than a Used car. No other benefits since they watered down the MPG improvements to a meaningless increase.

in lieu of taking this great consumerism "gift" may I just short-change my taxes by $4,500?

This is great.... the gov't is messing with the free market by encouraging consumption of products and services, it worked out great on the housing front...

just sour grapes on your part because no retro payment on salad shooters. me too---can you imagine if we could turn in those shooters for new ones and get paid $25 a pop? we'd be rich.

this is what a 'stimulus' is all about - getting people to do today what they might've (or might not have) done down the road. and its a great multiplier - 4500 isn't buying a new car - say 20k is, so the taxpayer's 4500 is resulting in movement of another 15,500. isn't the greatest concern that although bank reserves are increasing, there is limited velocity of that money? this helps to move it.
as opposed, say to road construction, which is just the gov't doing today what it would have done tomorrow, but you don't get the leverage.

Why limit it to just auto workers? I hear the little village in India where 95% of dildos are made is in dire straits. Me thinkz we should think globally and maybe these dipshit autoworkers who unionized their $20/hr jobs into the ground already got running water and $1 menus....

So where is the mrs. and mine sex toy rebate? where, where, where... and can I get a rebate for my Ferragamos?

One other thing.... maybe if all these new car buyers took MASS TRANSIT and walked.. it would 1) save environment 2) save healthcare 3) increase mass transit 4) lower my FUCKING taxes!

DIPSHIT circle jerking, having sex with mistresses in foreign countries, kidney selling, cigar sex with interns, gay closeted holier than thou, blind cheating, cheating on your wife with cancer, keebler cookie eating, can't sell my house, self serving save my old WS firm POLITICIANS!

Oh, have a nice day all to the regulars, including you ericho. :)

oh printer, you are serious, aren't you? you don't even understand the theory, do you? i have grave doubts about it working but the multiplier applies to the wages paid to the road workers that theoretically would not have been paid had the government not commissioned the work.

w67th as always: i'm with you -- lets get the dildo stimulus going.

printer, I want to be stimulated in a different way.....

i wasn't talking about the multiplier effect. and yes, i understand that's the theory behind the 'stimulus' program, but i don't think it has nearly as much of an effect as intended, because as we have seen over the past several years, when the gov't attempts to put money in people's pockets, it stays there. whereas this (CARS) will have a much more stimulative effect, because the gov't essentially gets $3 of consumption for each $1 they spend.

w67th - you'll have to speak to stevehjx about those needs of yours

unlimited stimulus, that's my motto. all stimulus, all the time. neverending. after the inventory restocking, we'll need some stimulus so the people can buy what's been restocked, clearly. not enough people buying electronics, enter the cash for 8-tracks, transitor radios and turntables. not enough people buying clothing, enter the cash for wide-leg cordouroys, velour shirts, and bow ties. not enough people buying organic food, enter the cash for freezer burned meat, frozen vegetables with ice crystals and what not, and moldy condiment jars.

after we run out of money for stimulus, where is the demand? it's just going to develop, organically sort of, with 10% unemployment and wage deflation?

have a nice day too, w67h.

Enrico, the reported GDP of -1.0% is a quarter over quarter measure. It means the 2nd quarter was 1% LESS (not a 5% increase) than the 1st quarter which was 6.4% (revised from -5.5%) less than the 4th quarter of 2008. So as of 2nd quarter 2009, things are still getting worse (contracting), even though the base GDP has been getting easier to beat for the previous 3 quarters.

about - how exactly do you think recessions end? according to you, once we entered the 1st recession, we'd never exit, because we'd be an unending cycle of unemployment -> reduced demand -> further unemployment -> further reduced demand ->

printer: you officially win the sarah palin babbler award. when a car is sold, the government gets $3 of consumption? please, don't try to explain this any further. "I can see russia..."

columbia - i see that basic math is beyond you. clearly i overestimated you (which is saying something)

printer, back at you. how is 4% or better growth going to be obtained over the next few years? because that's the question that's much more important than when is the recession going to be over. it might be over now, but that just means that the worst down turn in 70ish years is stabilizing. Better than continuing declines, but my question to you is how the hell do we get all the un and underemployed people back to work? for that you need ROBUST growth.

Hello aboutready.. hang in there.. its' the summer doldrums!

printer... think natural high from running 3 miles versus a sugar jolt from a Grande Mocha Latte.... one is sustainable and beneficial... the other leads to gastric by-pass surgery.....I'll let you decide which is which :)

nah...you just have to wait, watch and do the math. what math, you say? any math will do.

and from sarah:

"All of 'em, any of 'em that have been in front of me over all these years." --Sarah Palin, unable to name a single newspaper or magazine she reads, interview with Katie Couric, CBS News, Oct. 1, 2008 "

thanks w67th, i'm looking for some inner reserves. i'll let you know when i find them.

printer, also, for the nth time, the vast majority of recessions end when the Fed decides to lower interest rates. easy credit is a great economic juicer. but the banks aren't playing ball, they're keeping their money or using it to make money speculating, not providing it to small to medium busisnesses or individuals. makes me happy as a taxpayer to think we've provided so much for such a lovely return.

the thing I don't like about the reabtes like the cash for clunkers is that it spoils people. Now some people might refuse to buy a house or a car unless the govt. gives them money. Becuase eventually these rebates are going to go away. What's next? Will people not buy toilet paper unless they get a $10 rebate from the govt.?

Oh... I am much on on-line with my google email. Love the new 3GS iphone.... it's like a clunker (18mpg) versus a new toyota (25mpg), I'm being sarcastic... it's faster, but my wife is plenty happy with my old iphone... me thinks the old clunkers were fine and maybe the $Bill could've been spent better -shrug-

and the cars that are traded in under the program are going to be crushed by the govt. So over time there will be a shortage of auto parts. So if you think that the $12 AC knob or the $2,000 headlight is expensive, just wait!

Alpine! a thoughtful comment! NICE NICE!

alpie's been surprising to the upside occasionally these days. kind of disconcerting.

my 3G sucked. the 3GS works like a charm. was worth every cent and the wait in line.

yes yes.. the new iphone rocks... cant' wait until Jobs makes the iphone with the toilet paper dispenser :)

Gotta go entertain the fam.

later y'all from Sarah Palin... gonna miss the groovy over-achieving salmon fishing saks shopping knocked up teenage daughter media seeking snowmobile riding husband dumb as doorknob point guard national security hound russia watching Palin....

YOU JUST CAN'T MAKE THIS STUFF UP! LIFE JUST HAPPENS! :)

gotta agree on the 3gs...the best $218 i've spent in a long time. funny to compare to old pc's from the 80's--still vaguely remember the thrill of getting (from work of course) a compaq 386 25 mghz with of all things a color monitor(!)--think it went for close to $20K! kinda wish i hadn't thrown it out.

ah about - the old moving the goalposts trick. so now you admit that we will have growth, just not 'robust' growth.

first of all, i never said that 4%+ growth is imminent, though I would certainly be ecstatic to be wrong. the way i see things, the lack of lending is due to a couple of things. 1) we are barely 1 quarter removed from total collapse of the banking system, so to expect them to immediately lend out the money given the proximity to their near-death experience is unrealistic. 2) most businesses are still in, or hopefully just finished up with, paring back to adjust themselves for the current (or worse) environment - they are not yet thinking 'growth' but merely survival. in other words, the demand for quality loans is minimal

as we saw with corporate earnings, most firms are now comfortably profitable given this level of activity, so they will turn towards seeking top-line growth. which means investment. which means demand for money (loans) and hopefully labor as well. and the super-low interest rates will make the ROC quite attractive.

this stuff isn't rocket science. its how things have always, and will always continue to work. it isn't different this time. its just more severe.

whose moving the goalpost? i've been saying for weeks that we'd have an inventory correction, but there was no sustainable long-term demand. i've also been saying that a number of economists i respect have noted that a one-quarter increase in GDP is very common during a scenario such as this. Selective processing on your part? Reading comprehension? Many have noted that the prospects for top-line growth are anemic to non-existent. the numbers are looking better due to cost cutting, but there is no sign of any significant investment patterns. i'm not talking demand for quality loans, i'm talking survival. 40% of small to mid-sized businesses can't get the money to pay their bills.

and speaking of changing the goalposts, what about your "the fundamentals don't seem" to indicate comment the other day? what was that piece of deception all about?

no deception. given the headwinds i don't see that we're headed for a V-shaped recovery. meaning i don't expect very strong growth in the near future. which is exactly what i just said.

i think it will take time, but i think we'll get there.

I just read an interesting piece by Mish who argues that the dollar is poised for a huge rally. This would coincide rather nicely with the end to the massive run-up we have seen in copper, and as of late, oil. I happen to respect Mish, and as such I have added some UUP to my DUG and FXP, albeit with a tight stop. If in fact that Mish is right, expect a big correction in the S and P because as far as I can see, the main "fundamental" force that has been moving the market as of late has been the weakening dollar. Sentiment and beating estimates is, to follow up 67th's metaphor, a sugar high.

"i think it will take time, but i think we'll get there."

how much time and where is there?

I just hear some guy on CNBC say that in the market you have to buy high and sell higher. That's what you need to see to start getting truly confident that a rally is coming to an end.

"i'm not talking demand for quality loans, i'm talking survival. 40% of small to mid-sized businesses can't get the money to pay their bills."

Get your facts straight.
Small businesses are doing just fine.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SHIAX#symbol=SHIAX;range=6m

Junk bonds continue to lead.....
Market is saying, BIG boom ahead for small businesses. Follow the money...oh, that's right..you guys are leaders.

w67thstreet
about 19 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse Oh... I am much on on-line with my google email. Love the new 3GS iphone.... it's like a clunker (18mpg) versus a new toyota (25mpg), I'm being sarcastic... it's faster, but my wife is plenty happy with my old iphone... me thinks the old clunkers were fine and maybe the $Bill could've been spent better -shrug-

Don't you mean "me thinkz"?

For a laugh, I just did a search of the word "thinkz" on streeteasy, and look at all those postings by yepyepper w67thstreet

mh23, i think any rally in the dollar will be short-lived. it's a sign that there is still way too much liquidity for real assets. once the CRE bust and more residential loans and credit card debt finally goes to the loss column, that liquidity will quit looking for places to hide. oil is insane, and it's lower than it would have been had the dollar remained where it was last year.

jerkico, that's the funniest thing you've ever posted. you think people aren't smart enough to pull up your charts? that Legg Mason fund whose results you posted? it has anything to do with small business? you're a tard, pure and simple.

The investment seeks high current income. The fund normally invests at least 80% of assets, in high yield corporate bonds, debentures and notes. It may invest up to 40% of assets in fixed-income securities issued by foreign companies, including those in developing countries.

Did you just call someone a tard? Are you 13?

Think about the implications of the cash for clunkers program - anyone who can afford to buy a car with all cash and has wanted to already bought one over the last year - and odds are anyone who can afford to pay all cash doesn't have a trade-in that's worth less than $4.5K. Anyone using the cash for clunkers program has a trade-in (that has to be sold for scrap) that's worth less than $3.5-4.5K. Those are exactly the people who shouldn't be buying a new car - it means they'll be more strapped for the next 5 years than they would have been if they'd just kept their current vehicle. These new cars won't need much maintenance so the govt is subsidizing a one-time purchasing binge of new vehicles for people who shouldn't have been buying a new vehicle in the first place and eliminating recurring revenue (from maintenance and parts) over the next 5-10 years. Isn't it obvious that this is a complete sham to make the ignorant public think Q3 GDP growth (when it's reported) was better than it really was so they'll open up their wallets - these are the people who should keep their wallets closed and get their savings rate up to 10%+ for the next decade. It makes me sick that my tax dollars are being spent on smoke and mirrors BS.

$4500 for new wheeles? What happens to the trade ins? Are they crushed by the Government so they might end their life as a gas guzzeling monster? Are they resold? Why is this a good idea? To stimulate the auto industry?
Why not $450 for new glasses. If folks could SEE what they were doing and SEE where they were going we might avoid this mess in the future. How much more money do we have to spend on these lame ass monkey managed businesses? I bail out the company, I build and maintain all the roads and these companies cont figure out how to build a fuel efficient cost effective car??? Let them die so those with the will and ability take their place. When you keep them on life support it prolongs the life but, at what cost and quality?

Therockers/shrimpdick. Take notes, you are a tard.

No, but the target seems to be. thought it was fitting.

usually i would say fucktard or asshat, but i've been trying to clean up the language a bit.

tard works.

This Cash for Clunkers program running out of money doesn't at all convince me that our economy is back on track. Actually it tells me just the opposite. It tells me that these people could not have afforded new cars WITHOUT a government program. As always, 'The_President' has no idea what he's talking about

w67thstreet
24 minutes ago
ignore this person
report abuse Therockers/shrimpdick. Take notes, you are a tard.

I presume that was directed to me.

Pretty rough, two real zingers in one post. shrimpdick and tard. Gee whiz yepyepper, your cleverness is increasing with age. I guess dog years really are 7x faster than human years. Soon you'll learn how to spell thinks (hint, no z after the k)

Remember, make sure your wife cleans up your poop on the sidewalk after you go.

somebody needs a frozen drink with an extra shot, maybe an extra umbrella or some plastic hanging monkeys or something.

obviously not me because I know you always have the people you don't like on ignore

you're not on ignore, actually only two people are. i find you singularly lacking in wit, with an obsessive personality bordering on fanatical, but as someone interested in psychology i read your posts with some interest.

shrimpie... I don't know what is more pathetic... 1) that you are a regular on SE who cares so much of her anonymous sim character that you need to swap out passwords and logins to make personal attacks; 2) you follow ar and myself around on all the threads and seem to be taking notes; 3) you forgot your login to colonelklink and admitted as such; 4) too stoopid to put people on "ignore"; 5) haven't had an orgasm in 15 years; 6) so green with envy against another anonymous poster's "attributes" your need meds; 7) vent and rant prior to a "business" flight, vent again as soon as the plane lands and you are at the HoJo; 8) blush at reading the word "dildo"; 9) believe the $17 Billion adult entertainment industry is not consumed at all by any direct members of your family; 10) just your utter lack of wit and humor.

and the answer is : 11) ALL OF THE FUCKING ABOVE.

Finally, you should really shave down there, it'll help you draw the diagram for your "significant" other... and just maybe, a mind blowing orgasm will someday allow you to speak about human sexuality with your boyfriend without stuttering like a midwest hick?

No problemo with midwest... no problemo with hick.. just the combination :)

How pathetic is your life you spend your days not posting on SE, but looking up words you believe another anonymous poster may have used on SE? Dudette, you need to get yourself a better man that can satisfy you... denial won't help... it's not money problems, lack of career advancement, lack of successes in your life, not the lack of travels, inability to learn a new language, rejection from the other sex, your disproportionately large shoe size for your height,.... it's just he can't satisfy you.

"It tells me that these people could not have afforded new cars WITHOUT a government program. As always, 'The_President' has no idea what he's talking about"

Why do you think that is the case? Maybe many of them were going to buy new cars ANYWAY. People have to buy cars. They don't last forever. Eventually it costs less to buy a new car than it does to keep fixing the one you got. Cars get stolen. Cars get totaled, etc.

I'm getting to you, I see.

Now you are like a litle doggie that's been fed drugs, just chasing your tail, running into the wall, taking a crap all over the place, barking nonstop for no reason.

Look at the two posts you just posted, you could barely even muster an actual applicable insult (10) just your utter lack of wit and humor. - didn't aboutready just say something like that??).

Your wife would be proud of your behavior. Your kids will be proud some day (maybe when your son turns 15 and you give him the Snickers bar in a diaper, you can show him your excellent work on streeteasy filled with dildo jokes, words ending in a z, your yep yep barking, and your constant need to show off your Porsche).

oh, and aboutready, we share a common interest, how nice.

no pigs till BROOLYN!.... come on... you can do better than that...

come on thursday nites... chelsea piers... look for 997 turbo... Nike Sumo square driver... LMAO...

Don't you get it... the more you hate my "showing" off and dildo jokes... the more itz comingz atz youz... LMAO...

"Don't you get it... the more you hate my "showing" off and dildo jokes... the more itz comingz atz youz... LMAO... "

and each time you dig yourself deeper and continue to prove my point.