A Bull Market Full of Bull

A Bull Market Full of Bull Technical analysis and fundamental analysis have been turned on their heads and have to give way to "fraud" analysis to truly understand the direction and behavior of capital markets. The level of Socialism and free-market intervention by governments worldwide in response to this monetary crisis (yes, it is far from being over despite what the "experts" say) has infused... [more]

A Bull Market Full of Bull Technical analysis and fundamental analysis have been turned on their heads and have to give way to "fraud" analysis to truly understand the direction and behavior of capital markets. The level of Socialism and free-market intervention by governments worldwide in response to this monetary crisis (yes, it is far from being over despite what the "experts" say) has infused every market with behavior opposite of what you would expect in free markets. In fact, on April 23, 2008, I wrote an article that I chose to title, "Will US Markets Crash Now or Later?" because it was crystal clear from me that the current rally was unsustainable due to the extensive "fraud analysis" that I had conducted. Back then, technical analysts at the time stated the market was set to go much higher and my article inspired a lot of anger from people that called me stupid, ignorant, and even too young to understand anything (not sure what that comment was supposed to mean since it's a bunch of old men in charge of our Central Banks that have created the current mess we are in today). Despite the ridicule I received from writing that article, a mere 17 business days later the US S&P500 peaked at 1,440 and plunged and kept plunging all the way to 673. Today, I see the same fraud responsible for this current rally. In fact the fraud is much greater today than existed back then. Every government statistic is a lie - whether inflation, unemployment, housing starts, etc. Even simple reporting that one would think is incapable of being twisted to deceive the public, such as US Treasury bond auction sales, are being twisted to deceive the public. Yes, the US Treasury, through changing the manner in which they report their Treasury auction results, actually now make it appear as though foreign demand is still strong for Treasury notes and bonds when IN FACT, the US Federal Reserve is propping up the number of their reported US Treasury auction sales. Consider that at the end of July, the results of 2-year Treasury notes were so disastrous that it prompted William O' Donnell, head of US Treasury strategy at RBS Securities to state: "It was just a horrendous result, it was the weakest bid-to-cover since September 2008, and by my numbers it was the biggest tail since February 1993. It was just a very, very weak result." Consider that the 5-year Treasury auction was held just two days later and that a similarly disastrous result could have burst the bubble that is the US Treasury bond market. Consider that if VIRTUALLY NOBODY in the world wanted to take risks on 2-year US dollar-denominated government notes, the taking risks on LONGER-DATED MATURITY NOTES MAKES ZERO SENSE. Yet, just two days after a treasury auction of epic disastrous results, the 5-year Treasury and 7-year Treasury auctions reported heavy foreign buying. Or did it? If you have half-a-brain cell in your head, does this make any sense to you? Remember that just a month ago, the US Treasury changed the manner in which they categorize purchases that all bond traders normally assign to "foreign purchases". And consider that when US Treasury auctions went from disastrous to "all is fine" in less than 48 hours, the mass media spread these headlines throughout the world: "7-Year Bond Auction Calms Bond Anxieties" "Strong US 7-Year Debt Auction Calms Deficit Worries" and so on and so on. If you can't spot the fraudulent nature of what is going on (US Federal Reserve buying US Treasuries and attempting to sell their purchases as "foreign buying" to the general public), please wake up before it is too late. And you must realize that this fraud is happening in almost every aspect of financial reporting and financial markets today. It was the general public's willingness to accept the fraudulent headlines force-fed them by financial "experts" that caused them to mock my call in April, 2008 of an imminent market crash that happened just 17 business days after I made the call. This time around, the fraud is even greater, more systemic, and more widespread, so I'm unwilling to make a call today that another crash is imminent until certain indicators I follow become more favorable to predicting an imminent crash. These indicators may predict such a crash is coming in two weeks or they may not do so for several more months. However, I am confident that this rally, whenever it ends, will not end well. If we are truly in a new bull market as so many "experts" claim, any correction that occurs over the next 3-5 years should be moderate in a trend higher. This is not what I see happening. I see a blow off top at some point and a massive decline. So it may be that this current rally even continues higher. But beware and very cautious because this rally will not turn out well in the end. I'm not on board with those people that claim this rally mimics the largest rally of the Great Depression bear market, so therefore this rally is done as of today. There is so much fraudulent activity in these markets, including direct manipulation of stock markets higher by computerized trading programs employed by Goldman Sachs and others, that this market could possibly even go higher. And especially in this environment when trading volume is non-existent. Just this week, in US markets, the SPDR Trust S&P 500 SPY experienced the LOWEST VOLUME DAY IN THE LAST SEVEN MONTHS. Basically, this is dream territory for Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, HSBC et al, to manipulate markets higher, or at least keep them from a huge crash (not to say down days aren't possible, but if this volume persists, we will not yet see a crash). If you are one of our paid-up subscribers, we'll tell you when we think this rally will end and the telltale signs that this fraudulent rally will end. In the meantime, know that this current "bull market" rally has been driven by a load of bull and take appropriate actions to protect yourself from the fallout when it comes. [less]