Where is all that phat fresh inventory?

Tues Sept 8-18

good question falco. anybody else?

you guys should go on vacation like the rest of the world. i myself am out of here until after labor day.

Um yep, the most taken two weeks for vacation are now.

I'd say right after Labor Day.

Vacation?
Who will hold down the fort?

I hear all the pretty ones got boob implants, an extra coat of makeup on were shopping for that perfect black coctail dress for all the fall winter balls.

The US open is super-late this year.

Everyone that's anyone is not in town these weekends.

I think pent-up-demand contract signings will ramp up and sellers will hold on to propeties they would have listed b/c they now feel that the market is turning better and higher prices are in line for next year. The media/stock market activity is helping spreading the word. But that is just my humble opinion.

Wait until equities crash again and everyone shits their pants.

THIS is the inventory I want to see released into the market place. http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/47-university-place-new_york

While you were asleep by the pool, the market crashed. Officially, this bubble never happened. Come Labor Day, we begin the collective forgetting.

S&S, or inebriation.

http://www.theonion.com/content/news/nations_unemployment_outlook

"Why should those who've lost work have to live paycheck to paycheck, doing some miserable wage-slave job a goddamn monkey could do?" said Donald Ellington, a completely hammered senior adviser at JPMorgan Chase. "All these layoffs, they're totally a blessing in disguise. Now these people can do the thing they've always wanted to do. Like becoming a sportswriter. Or a musician. Or a pilot, even!"
"I'm telling you, this is their time," Ellington added. "This is their fucking time."
To illustrate his point, Ellington then sang most of the first verse of the Tina Turner song "We Don't Need Another Hero" for reporters.
Joblessness was not the only domestic problem that began to appear eminently solvable after the rapid downing of five beers. Also substantially improved were projections for the housing crisis, the affordability of health care, getting hot wings later, and being able to drive home just fine.
Though most on their fifth beer showed unbridled optimism—and in some cases outright cockiness—in terms of the employment landscape, those who greatly exceeded that number said they saw the current job market as hopelessly bleak. Contrary to the rosy prospects he had described earlier in the evening, economist David Singleton, after imbibing nine beers and an unknown quantity of Wild Turkey, lamented that there would have to be a comprehensive shift in the nation's entire economic structure before any lasting improvement could be realized.†

Singleton took 9 beers to come up with that comment...compliments on the functionality of an alcoholic.

It's already started to happen. I just saw an Escalade on the street with factory rims, and no one taunted the driver as a "renter". Not even a disdainful look from the door attendant.

So I'm reading about some july and august closings that meet our low ball wishes. Is there going to be an inventory flood this fall or will it remain dribs and drabs.

We shall see Falco, we shall see :)

falco.. you are looking good.... unless you believe the equity mkt takes off another 50% from here.... now the july/august comps become if not a comp a ceiling from which you can bid... your choice to lowball from these prices.

My prediction, nice selection of 6/7 in late Sept/October.... withdrawal of failed sales in Dec/Jan/Feb... and a slew of johnny come latelies in Spring 10'..... but as always you gotta see some of the rental deals out there... but who am I to know your finances and desires....

recently, last day or so, the UD widget for current inventory exceeded the 30-day average for the first time in awhile.

exactly Ar. I think I posted something similar 2 weeks ago or so when there was a convergence of the new listings to contracts signed. However, one of the stock jockey guys on the thread told me I had the right idea , but the wrong direction. They inadvertantly thought the approach of convergence was a time to buy and that the first approach would be a breakthru. Not bounced off of. I guess they were wrong. I will go back and find the thread. Pretty funny.

http://www.urbandigs.com/charts3.html

Still waiting for some interesting inventory to show up...at any price.

interesting like the bearded lady is interesting? be grateful, falco, as long as it's not so interesting you're not so tempted.

I don't know...that bearded papa has done some damage to the mid section.
Never underestimate a woman with a beard. I recently had a 30 yr. HS reunion. More bearded women than men. I'm not talking Pine Brothers...just thick peach fuzz. Nothing like menopause under high voltage electrical lines in the presence of a leaky Brookhaven National Labs. If only they could grow hair in in just the right places...

Now that I think about it...it's pretty funny that the older you get the less hair grows on the top of your head but more grows out your ears and nose. Ageing sucks.

http://www.urbandigs.com/charts3.html

am I reading it wrong or are the new listings coming in how and heavy and the contracts dissipating? Especially with the 7 day numbers at 592 new listings and 171 contracts signed: greater than 3 to 1?

30yrs, at least right now the rate of contract signing has been declining and the new listings inceasing much faster.

for this year i think contract signings are still rather strong. but after months of looking at listings i think it's fair to say that there have been a HUGE number of apartments taken off the market that will be returning. along with new listings, of course.

falco, there are ways of dealing with the extra hair. embrace the knowledge.

Noah, has your inventory scrubber overloaded? I noticed a lot of double (even triple) listings the other day and inventory on your webpage shot up past 9300 but I see it is back down this morning. I wouldn't expect many de-listings this time of year.

remember...the new inventory will more than likely be OUTRAGEOUSLY priced 'pre recession'....im thinking sellers think the recession is over....so if you are interested in buying...i would think it will take 4 to 8 months for pricing to fall(ie sellers realizing that their apts are overpriced)

we have an internal rule that eliminates duplicates and listings with no addresses for this widget. Not sure what that was, but sometimes SE expands coverage or does a tweak on their end that leads to a distortion for a day or so. Then it corrects.

I would expect new inventory to come back on (2,321 listings removed from market in past 8 weeks alone), over the next 4-6 weeks AFTER labor day.

Only anecdotal, but I have seen a significant pickup in new listings under my standard search terms over the last two weeks. Some of them are even, gasp, re-listings of places pulled from the market over the last year and quite a few of those at lower prices than they were previously listed. I see this as the early starters in a wave of new inventory and not surprising. I doubt too many people are pricing pre-recession. I'll give the benefit of the doubt that people are modestly aware of why sales went up in June (price declines).

It's the 8th of September...I'm ready...bring it on baby...let me have it...relist that apartment...go!

Falco:

It starts today! It's all gravy from here on, like leaving the 'Nam.

I had to have done something wrong, but i've only had one glass of wine and i tried three times, so someone figure out wtf.

i just did a search for apartments listed in manhattan in the last 2 days and i swear i got 2,751. some were in contract, but i went to page 200 and it still said 0 days on the market.

must be a glitch, but damn that's a glitch that's enough to give falco a heart attack.

here. this is like a flashback, or something hallucinogenic.

Sales in Manhattan
We found 2,751 listings listed less than 2 days ago
Median price: $1,035,000 Median size: 1,143 ft² Median price per ft²: $1,006
Information on Manhattan

Let the games commence! I've got money on the NYC re unicorn!

bump!!!

i think elliman is trying to re-add a boatload of inventory without apartment numbers.

These sordid manipulators of information... may they rot in a numberless cubicle hell for the next 1000 bubbles

jasonkyle, i hadn't noticed that. hell, i'm going to be busy the next few days.

but only 400 or so had been delisted as of this morning. this should be interesting.

Thatz the best a full service brokerage has got? Hiding the old listing lmao. Yeh I'm sure the Elliman key turner was like after labor day we are gonna do something AMAZING!!!!!!!!!

there is definitely some system gaming going on. I've seen at least 3 properties "re-listed" sans unit number so as to appear as a "new" listings.

If you find things like that, shoot an email to streeteasy. I'm sure they'll be pretty busy over the coming weeks, but in general, they're pretty good on the followup of that sort of thing

buddhahat, difficult to explain, but at this point we're not even so interested in whether something has been listed before. many things have. what we're interested in, i think, is if elliman removed their listings and replaced them with ones without apartments identifications?

if not, this new number is huge. if so, elliman deserves huge piles of turds dropped on them, and maybe we can do so.

having said that, we're always interested in in something has been listed so as to hide info. we used to have a thread for that. maybe i'll start a new one.

AR, please do.
I send duplicates and errors to SE and they fix them swiftly. They seem grateful about it.

AR -- every one of the listings I am looking at have been there even as of yesterday, so I dont understand how they can be at 0 days. The 1 fact in common -- they are all Prudential Elliman listings
Several are in contract
All are missing the apt #s -- likely a subterfuge

also the listing agent has disappeared in most of them -- likely a glitch or new strategy to shield the world from evil agents

they are all Elliman. For instance, my search for Park Slope looks for anything less than $1mm listed w/in last 2 days. Has been returning nill for a few days. Searched just now and it returned 50 something results. All were Elliman (ie, 500 Fourth Ave) plus some that I've looked at before (also Ellliman) that have been rejiggered to show up as new listings.

joedavis, obviously there is something wrong.

NOW let's have some fun with that.

Elliman decided to remove most if not all of their listings so we couldn't match up prior listing history?

FUCK THEM. and i know we don't like curbed, but they should be sent a shout out,don't you think?

I say we Boy AND Girl Cott Elliman
A note to the NY Times would not hurt

Let's call Elliman tomorrow and ask....
Maybe SE can help us understand. Any comment, SE?