Bubble in the NYC RENTAL mkt.. "a Primer"

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/14234-2007-bubble-an-option-based-interpretation-of-the-greatest-bubble-in-nyc-re

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/14172-1991-nyc-re-rental-market-a-refresher-course

Please read in conjunction with the above threads to determine for yourselves where NYC RE sales will be in the next 1,3,5,10 years. In addition, imputed rents will be on the final.

Read both threads, sorry I was off for a few days. wife and daughter cams back tuesday morning from a month at the beach. Had to have the grounds crew in from Yankee Stadium to help clean the apartment. Very interesting threads. Reading them leaves my RE compass even more confused. Predicting the future is really the business of fortune tellers. There was a such a business on my block that recently closed. Which begs the question, if anyone knew it would be a bad location it would have to be the fortune teller. Sort of makes you lose faith in the profession.

So now I turn to you. Lets just talk about the next 6-12 months. What do you see happening?

Falco, I can venture this: prices are NOT going up in the next year.

Speak of the devil falco.. .here is my answer to another of your post a second ago.

"falco.. you are looking good.... unless you believe the equity mkt takes off another 50% from here.... now the july/august comps become if not a comp a ceiling from which you can bid... your choice to lowball from these prices.

My prediction, nice selection of 6/7 in late Sept/October.... withdrawal of failed sales in Dec/Jan/Feb... and a slew of johnny come latelies in Spring 10'..... but as always you gotta see some of the rental deals out there... but who am I to know your finances and desires...."

mimi, why do you think this? what happened to the classic 'over correction'? Prehaps this is what we have seen this summer and now we are on the road to price stabilization. I actually have no idea and hence, I'm fishing for answers.

look for a classic 8 rental and do the math... 39 listings for under $15K (C8).
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/rentals/uws-manhattan/no_fee:0%7Cprice:-15000%7Cbeds%3E=4

C7 = 236 listing for C7 under $15K..
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/rentals/uws-manhattan/no_fee:0%7Cprice:-15000%7Cbeds%3E=3

just on UWS and SE... not counting all the inventory (hush hush) ones in large brokerages, Craigslist... and since its' a rental.. .try out a new nabe... thats' what my wife and I plan to do...

howz this 2500 sq footer for $13K.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/rental/487747-rental-225-west-86th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

bet you can hammer them for $10K if it don't rent till october 25....

I am no expert. I thought the best window was lowballing (actually -offering a logical price IMHO) at the end of the summer, since people that didn't sell then have an old listing for the start of the season and this could act as a deadline.) Now I think that, given what I read (the strong lack of hope RE commercial RE, lower rental prices during peak season, etc.) that we'll see a more stable year with gradual loss of value (not much, maybe 15%?) This is all intuitive, though...but, since most of the experts were sooooooo wrong a year ago, now I choose to read a lot and draw my own conclusions...

falco, there is a tremendous amount of money being pumped into the system. and an inventory correction that will lift GDP from its depths into higher depths. that is not good, it is just better than cataclysmic. we could still have the latter, who knows? and signs are not good for up. remember, these corrections take a few YEARS. just because you're bored with waiting doesn't mean it's the best time to buy.

mimi is more positive than i am.

it's amazing how many official bears started trying to do the cya thing when green shoots appeared. have you ever noticed how the permabulls don't care if they're wrong? their message changes very little, if at all, when circumstances change, although they might be less obviously present. but, like the democrats, the bears feel the need to be correct, if not effective. so they start to straddle if things start to change. and they're starting to go back to bear.

Mimi , that is how money is made.
Understand what the consensus is, the opinions that form it, and then as a "trader" you form your own view of the world and act accordingly. I.e. I don't have to know that OIL will hit $100, just that it will be higher or lower than what the market thinks.

Falco you only think the rentals are deals but they are pretty much where they were 2 years ago. Thats no deal

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