so now that we know that several major banks are either gone or restricted from paying any meaningful comp, what does that do to manhattan RE ?? it crushes it is the answer

Do you live in a cave?

Morgan Stanley set aside $5 billion in bonuses TODAY. They had a phenominal 3rd quarter, as did Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, et al.

Widely reported forecasts over the last week indicate there will be a record payout in January bonuses.

Timely post.

What % of those payouts will be cash on the barrelhead and usable for buying apartments?

boringhill..look at the news out of the treasury today..of all the banks that paid out in 2007, how many are paying out today ? why is new york state in danger of going into default in december? answer: tax revenue down dramatically from reduced revenues from Wall st. all the info is out there and indisputable.

the restrictions only appl to the top 25 executives. Seriously, of the top 25 execs., how many are in the market for an apt.? This will have virtually no impact.

This is a PR move. They all met and came up with it. Makes for great headlines, but when you read the details......nothing but smoke and mirrors for speech soundbites.

"The U.S. pay czar will cut in half the average compensation for 175 employees at firms receiving large sums of government aid, with the vast majority of salaries coming in under $500,000, according to people familiar with the government's plans."

"The point of biggest debate will be the cutting of cash salaries, which are expected to hold below $500,000. Instead, employees will receive what has become known as "salary stock" -- long-term stock grants in lieu of cash that can't be touched for at least four years."

So, RE rebound in 2013/14?:)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125615172396299535.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLETopStories

buy now or be priced out forever!

"Morgan Stanley set aside $5 billion in bonuses TODAY. They had a phenominal 3rd quarter, as did Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, et al.

Widely reported forecasts over the last week indicate there will be a record payout in January bonuses."

yep, the pay zar is just a joke. i'd prefer let citi (and bac if needed) fail. better to pay those morons unemployment insurance than their whole salaries&bonuses. i love when they talk about retaining talent. if they had that talent indeed, they wouldn't be in such a big mess. there's no talent to lose at citi imho.

Oh, yeah, this totally kills the 1 apartment at the Plaza that would be sold for over $20 million. Total devastation of the real estate market. Damn.

admin, how many individuals do you know who work for Citi?

i know plaenty at citi and all these "banks"

talent is a fucking joke--shit floats to the top in these places

the strategic managers are mostly careerist managers of their own images, who bring little experience or knowledge to the table, and care only of their ascent and compensation

to produce is to understand ones business and contribute--those who produce, and understand their respective businesses, get run over by the careerists who spend all their time manipulating image and politicking--

"admin, how many individuals do you know who work for Citi?"

i'm in finance, but not wall street, did masters and phd. so i know more bankers than recommended by any doctor :-) issue here, is that the average joe doesn't understand that he's being played. the banks have joe6packs by the balls thanks to joe's ignorance and aversion to not-so-simple sentences, so fear always trumps logic (not one of joe's strengths by the way).

anyway, i do know a lot of bankers and saw no talent whatsoever on them as a group. even worse, if i knew smart guys before going to wall street, by divine intervention they just began to believe their own bullshit (found the same going on with realtors). they not only missed the credit crash, they thought securitization will keep on increasing ad infinitum...

joe can achieve the same only with a ruler! used car salesmen in armany suits, that's what they are. talent? they don't even know what talent is!

what matters the most in the long term is how to prevent finance from sucking the best brains coming to the best universities? easy! make finance boring again, if they want the FDIC to guarantee deposits, then by law it should be a boring institution. those that wanna be a casino whose business model is comprised of activities that should be illegal (not all, but many) then... don't relay on the government at all and formally fail each time they fail. that's imho.

"the strategic managers are mostly careerist managers of their own images, who bring little experience or knowledge to the table, and care only of their ascent and compensation"

this is 100% true. in finance, even in academia, you learn that before making a correction or expressing doubts... one has to waste a good 5 minutes saying how f*cking smart the idiot making that mistake or publishing that stupid paper is. men, it's kind of funny in a very scary way. go to real science and math discussions and you don't see that waste on image (ok, it's not waste, but investment according to these masters of the universe).

Easy - the way to prevent "best" brains from "best" universities from going into finance - CUT the pay. Not everyone is attracted by $, but a lot of people are. Obviously, you cannot generalize, but the temptation of $ is too great when you come from a more humble background. This applies to any (relatively) well-compensated field.

"Easy - the way to prevent "best" brains from "best" universities from going into finance - CUT the pay. Not everyone is attracted by $, but a lot of people are. Obviously, you cannot generalize, but the temptation of $ is too great when you come from a more humble background. This applies to any (relatively) well-compensated field."

right on target. along with the humble background is the issue of non-discretionary rampant inflation (housing, college for kids, their own student loans). so together with cutting pay in finance to make it even compensation wise, inflation in non-discretionary items (for the middle class professional that is) should be addressed. the most stupid thing is to relay on housing inflation as an econ policy as it's just a transfer, it helps some but hurts others.

if you make an ok living (can buy a house even in an expensive city where your job is) and your cost of opportunity of not going to finance is not being measured by the millions... then, productivity & real innovation will be greatly improved.

It's not just a simple matter of cutting pay in one industry. Generally, somewhat-unfettered capitalism (remember the dot-com boom?) has a way of rewarding people in a disproportionate way. Why is plastic surgery/dermatology such a hard specialty to get into? Could it be the $?

"Generally, somewhat-unfettered capitalism (remember the dot-com boom?) has a way of rewarding people in a disproportionate way. Why is plastic surgery/dermatology such a hard specialty to get into? Could it be the $? "

oh boy, very true. the best paid professor at columbia univ is a dermatologist! sounds weird, but at least there's no coaches getting paid more than every professor... which is not unusual.

-----------------------------------------------------
"compensation for performance is the american dream"
- evil paulson

Ever heard of "from each according to his ability, to each according to his need" - didn't work so well last go-around. You don't think coaches get paid as much as or more than some professors?

'Do you live in a cave?'

caves for sale?
Sounds cool.
battastick!

seriously, we need lending to come back as much as compensation. Showed a 3-BR today to a Goldman wife who was like "look, we really need to cap our mortgage loan at $729,750."

When investment bankers aren't taking jumbos, the lower end of the market is the only thing that moves -- which is what's happening.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

Less head count and higher comp for non bail out companies.Bail out companies will comp their workers fairly in various form of comp (securities etc). As the form of equity changes changing landscape so will the acceptable collateral for RE. Nothing is changed. Just fewer guys with more money.

"You don't think coaches get paid as much as or more than some professors? "

went through an initial shock after reading that the highest paid employee in most universities is not a professor but a coach. columbia sucks in sports and it's kind of a thing that makes them proud, not to be sport-focused.

Ever heard of "from each according to his ability, to each according to his need".
yep, guess the discussion is which ability is appreciated the most. who's the more able? a guy like nicola tesla (if we ever have one like that again) or a paper shuffler that trades within a blind box using insider info and the impact of his own self-serving company recommendations? right now, the paper shuffler, no doubt about it.

it reminds me of the last documentary of front line. greenspan telling the chief of the CFTC that fraud shouldn't be prosecuted. "let the market figure it out". LMAO, fraud shouldn't be an issue for a regulator... we've been in trouble for a while! nothing new, nothing changed imho.

People will ALWAYS gravitate towards that which betters their material circumstances. Whether they are Tesla-like in ability or not. If the currency isn't money, there's always something else. It's not a co-incidence that prior to state-funded scientific research, many scientists were born into the gentry and didn't have to work for their bread. Also, interestingly enough, Newton who did not come from landed gentry (though his family was comfortable) was always a little bit of a money-grubber (very interested in the trappings of wealth & alchemy).

And you cannot conflate success in academia/research with pure brainpower. In today's research labs, where you need a team of researchers, it's often the better manager/enabler who does well.

"Newton who did not come from landed gentry (though his family was comfortable) was always a little bit of a money-grubber (very interested in the trappings of wealth & alchemy)."

yep, he got hurt in the south sea bubble twice. but still earn so much during his many jobs, he ended his life very comfortably.

"And you cannot conflate success in academia/research with pure brainpower. In today's research labs, where you need a team of researchers, it's often the better manager/enabler who does well."

imho pure sciences it remains being result oriented. in finance and econ is still salesmanship what counts the most. you couldn't believe the shit that gets well published. true, maybe it's not worse than it used to be, it just didn't improve.

great frontline--the warning--see it--scary--but read the recent taibbi article--the rubins paulsons blankfeins greenspans geithners coxes pandits--how in the fuck do they still have jobs--and still perpetrate their garbage--see the frontline--these guys put down what would have prevented much of the current debacle--they are still calling the shots--its unbelieveably disappointing that our system is so impotent

i am not sure what people here suggest to do. Should we all become engineers instead of bankers? It's like suggesting we should become China or India. Fine but imagine the competition. Chinese or Indians are better and cheaper engineers than we will ever be. Americans can only be bankers at the moment. Granted only few of us can become bankers but as long as they throwing crumbs around we can continue being writers, realtors, salesmen, bloggers etc. albeit with a lower standard of living than our previous generations.

"great frontline--the warning--see it--scary--but read the recent taibbi article--the rubins paulsons blankfeins greenspans geithners coxes pandits--how in the fuck do they still have jobs"

uf, amazing. the woman that should have been rewarded had to resign and nobody called her back. the masters of the universe that f*cked up all have their jobs... except those that retired cause of old age (greenspan and levitt). truly scary "reward for performance". reminds me of today, nothing changed, the 2 that make sense are women too, sheila and elizabeth. while the viking is there just for image (we care about inflation... bla bla bla bullshit).

"Americans can only be bankers at the moment. Granted only few of us can become bankers but as long as they throwing crumbs around we can continue being writers, realtors, salesmen, bloggers etc."

not sure about the "can only". econ policies during the last 15 years encouraged paper shuffling and creating imaginary wealth (when in fact it was only transfers badly accounted for). one of the issues is what happens with human capital after decades of doing that. i mean, once real productivity begins to matter again (instead of transfers and entertainment).