Implications for NYC real estate - now and in the future
Started by sjtmd
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 670
Member since: May 2009
Discussion about
New York - New Yorkers are fleeing the state and city in alarming numbers -- and costing a fortune in lost tax dollars, a new study shows. More than 1.5 million state residents left for other parts of the United States from 2000 to 2008, according to the report from the Empire Center for New York State Policy. It was the biggest out-of-state migration in the country. The vast majority of the... [more]
New York - New Yorkers are fleeing the state and city in alarming numbers -- and costing a fortune in lost tax dollars, a new study shows.
More than 1.5 million state residents left for other parts of the United States from 2000 to 2008, according to the report from the Empire Center for New York State Policy. It was the biggest out-of-state migration in the country.
The vast majority of the migrants, 1.1 million, were former residents of New York City -- meaning one out of seven city taxpayers moved out.
"The Empire State is being drained of an invaluable resource -- people," the report said.
What's worse is that the families fleeing New York are being replaced by lower-income newcomers, who consequently pay less in taxes.
Overall, the ex-New Yorkers earn about 13 percent more than those who moved into the state, the study found.
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And it should be no surprise that the city -- and Manhattan in particular -- suffered the biggest loss in terms of taxable income.
The average Manhattan taxpayer who left the state earned $93,264 a year. The average newcomer to Manhattan earned only $72,726.
That's a difference of $20,538, the highest for any county in the state. Staten Island was second, with a $20,066 difference.
It all adds up to staggering loss in taxable income. During 2006-2007, the "migration flow" out of New York to other states amounted to a loss of $4.3 billion.
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Response by mimi
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1134
Member since: Sep 2008
Thanks. Source of the article? I guess that this is always the case: people come here to learn and succeed, they stay for some years, and after leave to CT, NJ, LA, other countries. The article doesn't compare the results of that time period to others. I wonder how it worked for, say, 1989-97.
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Response by apt23
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2041
Member since: Jul 2009
I wonder more about 2008. It sounds like these figures go up to 2008. The 2008 to 2010 numbers will be more interesting because it will include the exodus after Lehman collapse.
I think the implication is that the price of a family coop needs to become a lot close to the price of a nice house in a good suburb...making it less a money decision and more a preference decision. I wish the data existed, but I am sure that 'spread' exploded from 2002 to 2008. I'd say classic sixes need to fall back down to around a million bucks.
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Response by nyc10023
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 7614
Member since: Nov 2008
Yup, I agree with you Rhino. A large part of the exodus has to be driven by families with young children heading out for burbs.
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Response by Rhino86
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 4925
Member since: Sep 2006
Every home is unique...but something tells me the spread blew out. At least in 2000 when I was in business school... What was it...like classic six = $900k and a nice house in the burbs pick a number like $750k. Now its $1.6mm vs. $900k.
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Response by nyc10023
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 7614
Member since: Nov 2008
C6s have dropped in price lately, 1.6m is high. I would say you can find one for 1.3m in a good school zone.
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Response by Rhino86
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 4925
Member since: Sep 2006
Really? Progress. They had been $2mm. Do you have any particular ones in mind?
I know the UWS. Even at the ht of the bubble, you would rarely find 2m closings (usually view apts, or an exceptionally generous layout).
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Response by nyc10023
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 7614
Member since: Nov 2008
There is a catch - as prewar apts are mostly in co-ops, you need to have more $ than just the 20% and the income for mtge + maintenance. I'm sure you've noticed that Park Ave 6es can be had for less than 1.6m but you need to have way more in the bank. A different proposition from buying a house in the burbs.
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Response by sjtmd
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 670
Member since: May 2009
This is from a recent report of the Empire Center for NY State Policy and can be found at:
Thanks. Source of the article? I guess that this is always the case: people come here to learn and succeed, they stay for some years, and after leave to CT, NJ, LA, other countries. The article doesn't compare the results of that time period to others. I wonder how it worked for, say, 1989-97.
I wonder more about 2008. It sounds like these figures go up to 2008. The 2008 to 2010 numbers will be more interesting because it will include the exodus after Lehman collapse.
sjtmd,
Thnx for posting.
FYI!!!
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/15704-fyi-
I think the implication is that the price of a family coop needs to become a lot close to the price of a nice house in a good suburb...making it less a money decision and more a preference decision. I wish the data existed, but I am sure that 'spread' exploded from 2002 to 2008. I'd say classic sixes need to fall back down to around a million bucks.
Yup, I agree with you Rhino. A large part of the exodus has to be driven by families with young children heading out for burbs.
Every home is unique...but something tells me the spread blew out. At least in 2000 when I was in business school... What was it...like classic six = $900k and a nice house in the burbs pick a number like $750k. Now its $1.6mm vs. $900k.
C6s have dropped in price lately, 1.6m is high. I would say you can find one for 1.3m in a good school zone.
Really? Progress. They had been $2mm. Do you have any particular ones in mind?
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/473386-coop-168-east-74th-street-upper-east-side-new-york
This one actually looks good, in PS 290.
I know the UWS. Even at the ht of the bubble, you would rarely find 2m closings (usually view apts, or an exceptionally generous layout).
There is a catch - as prewar apts are mostly in co-ops, you need to have more $ than just the 20% and the income for mtge + maintenance. I'm sure you've noticed that Park Ave 6es can be had for less than 1.6m but you need to have way more in the bank. A different proposition from buying a house in the burbs.
This is from a recent report of the Empire Center for NY State Policy and can be found at:
http://www.empirecenter.org/pb/2009/10/empirestateexodus102709.cfm