The biggest problem New York is facing is unemployment. According to the state Comptroller's office, the city shed 115,700 jobs as of June and is expected to hit 328,000 jobs losses -- 47,000 of them in the securities industry -- by the third quarter of 2010, boosting an unemployment rate that has already hit 10.3 percent.

http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/new-york-could-see-a-double-dip-in-residential-market--2

As I learned at a recent conference at Hofstra Univ. on real estate and the Recession, this will also further depress the commercial real estate market. There's actually a formula for how many square feet of office space are needed per employed human being. I'm sorry I don't remember the number, but they then compare that multiplier with the available office space inventory.

{Manhattan real estate agent.}

for there to be a double dip, don't we need it to stop falling first?

As a New Yorker, I take no pleasure in my neighbors' misfortune. However, as a poised and ready buyer, I say, in the immortal words of Mr. Burns, "Excellent, excellent."