Is it just me or has the market really turned?

of the bids you've made, how many have subsequently gone to contract?

new york girl I am wondering the same thing I have been looking for sometime now but have noticed pricing all over the place dosnt really give me a clear sence one way or the other

I've noticed in my own apartment search that sellers are willing to wait until an offer close to what they want is made. Two apartments that I monitered both went into contract recently for pretty close to their asking price. It's still a buyer's market because there's alot of apartments on the market, but maybe just a little less so.

how do you know what price they went into contract at?

I am/was a buyer that looked diligently for about 4 months. I, too, focussed on comps. I saw many apts where the ask was above 2007/8 prices. I made an offer on one apt. I discussed whether is was even worth making what I considered a fair offer on another apt. when it was so far below ask -- and was advised it was pointless. Both apts have since gone into contract. I took some comfort knowing that Miller Samuels said that about 2/3 of current market was overpriced. I believe prices will go down. I believe prices are still high due to pent up demand and a rising stock market. It takes some time for a bubble to unwind. I am now looking for a rental for a year or two to see if the market goes down. If I am wrong and have missed the bottom, then NY is just too pricey for us -- and we have perfect credit and good income. If that comes to pass, I will be a permanent renter.

It's just you. In my search, very few listings are going to contract.

Any listings that are priced for early 2010 are going into contract pretty quickly. Everything else - which seems to be at least two-thirds of listings - is sitting there. And sitting there. And refreshing the listings and sitting there some more.

So yeah, deals are getting done and if you see something that is current market and you bid 10% below that, you're probably not going to get your apartment. If you're dealing with the other 66.6% of the market, you're probably not going to get your apartment because sellers are still convinced that 2007 prices are just around the corner. It's a frustrating time to be a buyer. But I'll take this over the bubble years any day.

slight correction to my earlier comment. For both apartments, each had dropped their listed price a slight amount one time before a deal was reached.

what is considered market ppsf for west chelsea new construction condo listings? any of you looking there? there were several apartments that i visited that i didnt bid on cos i thought the pricing was crazy; they subsequently went into contract eg 100 West 81st PH

Have been looking for a pied a terre co-op on the UWS & Park Slope. 1 bedroom. Doorman/elevator building. In both locations, it seems that 75% of listings are not acceptable - lousy floorplan, high maintenance, windows overlooking dark voids, old and tired buildings. Not selling despite price drops. On SE week after week. The other 25% - if priced right, seems to go to contract quickly. The few times we started the bidding process - 85% of asking price without buyer's broker - refused outright. Overall, very little inventory of pre-bubble pricing quality units.

i am in contract to buy a condo in tribeca. i have been looking for about two years; glad I waited, but just felt right time for me to buy after seeing everything on the market and my life circumstances. I have noticed in general that prices are not declining that much and in some rare cases they are rising. I believe I got a good value relative to comps and paid at least 10%-15% below asking and really like the apartment. So I am happy and plan to own it for a while. Prices may go down a bit more and may rise--hard to say, but I think I made the right decision to buy based upon my circumstances.

lincoln is that 10-15% off peak prices or off the current asking price?

The affordability question really hit home for me when I recently walked into a $2mm apt in a new building. The couple living there had two little boys and every inch of the apt was being used. The small living space was taken over by the kids gear and toys. The dining table was pushed into a wall in the corner and you clearly had to move it every time you wanted to seat 4.

I was reminded of the time in college I did surveys in 3 poor cities for HUD. I went to impoverished neighborhoods and walked into small 1 bed apts where 8 or 10 or more people were living-- usually 3 to 4 people per double mattress. There was no space to breathe and their few belongings were stacked in piles everywhere. It was the same feeling in the $2mm apt except the strollers and belongings cost thousands of dollars. This was a very wealthy family that could not afford enough space for their family and their belongings in NYC. It was very little wonder they were leaving. I walked out and told my husband that we had just seen our first $2mm ghetto.

That was an overpriced apt for this market, 23. I've seen some large apts for 2m.

In the very small sector I'm interested in, things are going quickly into contract if they are good-quality apts (light, space, condition, rarity) and priced "correctly" - still not cheap by any stretch or even close to buy/rent ratios.

The overwhelming majority of the market is not priced correctly for the quality - either dime-a-dozen condo or light, size afflicted.

very well said apt 23 I am searching for a large one bedroom and it is either still overpriced or lower prices but something is very wrong facing a wall etc

10023: have you seen large apts in new buildings for 2mm? The Harrison, 200WEA, 10 WEA, Rushmore, 555 West 59-- all rather small in that price range.

apt23, cramped living does not imply a ghetto just economy. Were there vermin? Holes in the walls? Other signs of poor maintenance? The home life you observed was likely a family paying a mortgage or market rate rent on a well maintained home, no? A small home in the city beats a large one in most of suburbia, particularly when there's a gas gusseling SUV in the garage.

guzzling... eecks

I'm agreeing with you, 23. The new buildings are overpriced and I think prices in the less well-located bldgs will fall.

No, of course, PMG, it was a beautiful home. This was a lovely couple. I was being ironic because it does not seem right that for the exorbitant price of $2mm you can't have enough space for your small family. Ten years ago you could have had a very large apt in prime Manhattan. The bad economy is not forcing families into expensive 1200 sq ft apts. It is a result of the bubble. Prices are not affordable even for wealthy families. Prices will have to come down or people will leave the city over quality of life issues.

For a young couple just starting out their working lives today, how long will they have to work before they can afford the down payment on a decent apt. All the new buildings in Chelsea and Tribecca and the UWS are $1300 - $1700 psf. How can even young professionals afford that?

Have the market turned?

This is a joke right?

Newyorkgirl - I think its turning worse...actually. This employment situation is just really awful in the city. I know because I"m looking. It's only a matter of time before more ppl start foreclosing or moving out of the city to save money.

We're closing soon on a place that is about 18% below peak, but its in Harlem and is in the <500K range.I think you're talking about a different price range. I have about 80 places saved on my list, they're all less than 650K and in Harlem/morningside heights. Since May, I would say that maybe 5 have sold, 10 are in contract, 15 are "unavailable", and the rest are still on the market. The apts that sold maybe went for 8-12% below peak. There were some large price drops in August but things have pretty much stagnated.

apt23 - as part of a young couple starting out, I can say that its pretty much impossible to save up 20% for downpayment. We're buying with significant wedding gift money and family savings. I don't know anyone who went into finance industry, maybe they can afford these 1mil. + apartments. However anyone who has fairly large salary, such as a doctor or lawyer, is going to be saddled with tons of student loans to pay off. And that's if they were able to get a job. My generation really got the shaft - there's no other way around it.

"My generation really got the shaft - there's no other way around it."

Boo-frakin'-hoo. BOO-FREAKIN'-HOO! Every 25 year-old I know either has a BMW or plans to lease one. The poor credit ratings amongst your generation is AMAZING! Every time I try to hire someone under 30, i have to make an exception due to his lousy credit rating. And these are 6-figure, professional jobs!

I didn't buy a luxury car until my mid-30's, and my wife and I had a $500K+ combined income at the time. My dad's generation struggled through the depression, and as a result paid cash for almost eveything the rest of his life, so wary of credit were they. You kids are just the opposite. So go cry on somebody else's shoulder, spoiled brat!

I agree, apt23, it is impossible for young families in the city these days because of bubble pricing. Inflated prices have resulted in a transfer of wealth from young buyers to the older generations. The generation coming of age in America after WWII may be the greatest in terms of bravery, but also the luckiest in terms of opportunity. I was born a generation later, which was still early enough to get a piece of Manhattan before prices got out of control. I think recent bidding fever on NYC apartments will pass. Values have to follow employment over the long term, not the size of Goldman Sach's employees' AIG bailout windfall bonuses on the taxpayer's dime. There just aren't enough Goldman employees.

dear dwayne_pipe,

I'm not exactly sure what industry you work in or area that you live in but you clearly deal with a bunch of idiots. WE're both 28, drive my father-in-law's old ford contour, and have credit ratings near 750. So clearly your stereotype has nothing to do with me.

The problem that people my age are stuck with is that IF they can find a job, there is not always decent benefits, there is zero job security, and most likely a large amount of your money will be going towards paying your student debt. YOu can also add the fact that many senior workers at companies were laid off, so now any open jobs require years of experience, and they're filled by the more experienced workers who had been laid off. Entry-level jobs and few and far between nowadays.

I my opinion the inventory numbers tell the tale. A sharp 20% decline since peak and the aggregate number continues to go down through the fall. Granted many listings are being pulled, just like they were in the summer as sellers realize the party is over. More still remain on the market hopeful for a deal at inflated prices. These are the listings referenced above and they'll likely continue to sit. In fact, there is a good portion of the inventory on the market that will never trade because sellers refuse to budge on price. Just look at the vast majority of new build condos for evidence of this.

But the appealing properties priced right, where financing is attainable, are moving quickly. The 30 day running average of properties going into contract has been above 1000 for months. That's almost 3 dozen properties a day for every day of the week.

What the inventory doesn't tell us is where the action is and isn't. There's lots of empirical evidence floating around these threads but it isn't real data that you can take to the bargaining table. Hopefully UD 2.0 will give us some new tools that will expose problem areas and help buyers steer clear of trouble. Or at least provide the tools to support reduced bids.

I've been looking for nearly two years now, and would not say I have seen a market turn. As others have previously said, of the apts that I'm following, the ones that are priced for the current mkt (i.e., 2004/05 pricing) do seem to be more prone to going into contract/sold, but that is not the large majority of sellers.

What I have sensed, however, is that the downward pricing pressure seems to have somewhat abated as some of the recent Wall St bonus money news (really only GS) seems to have encouraged some sellers to hang on to 2007/08 pricing levels in the hopes of attracting some of that bonus money in Jan/Feb 2010. Come late winter/early spring 2010, I think the market direction will resolve itself from this temporary paralysis.

Spinnaker: the action in the 3br+ market on the UWS is where quality and a "reasonable" price intersect.

All of the listings which I thought were fairly priced have gone into contract in the last 2 weeks. That's not the market, obviously because we're talking about half a dozen listings.

In the summer i had an accepted offer on a low ball bid......nothing was moving....i didnt take it since i thought it would go down further......since then.....my low ball offers arent even countered and evertyhing im seeing is moving into contract at close to ask......sad but true

I have been focused on w'burg and can only speak to that particular area. I have plenty of buildings saved on SE and everyday I get updates where units have either sold or gone into contract at a faster clip than a few months ago. Open houses out there are the busiest I have seen them in quite a while. Units priced properly are moving well and that is giving hope to the dunderheads trying to move their inventory at '07 pricing. There still is a pent up demand to buy regardless of the unemployment numbers. Prices have risen somewhat and activity is clearly up in the face of these economic headwinds. When assets rise on bad news that is a bullish sign. when they fall on good news-get out of the way. All in all I am cautiously optimistic and have put my money where my mouth is and taken the plunge in w'burg. Contract at lawyers as I write.

nyc10023 - When I was on the hunt I had a difficult time finding many properties that met my criteria of quality. I think that's part of the problem with this inventory and why so much is just sitting -even when priced correctly. I think buyers are more picky now than they have been in the past because the sense of urgency is gone. They are willing to take their time to get it right.

I warned many here 6 months ago.

Stop listening to some of these idiots (bears) here. My biggest advice is work within your own finances. There's nothing wrong with paying 1 dollar for an organic apple if you make 2 million bucks annually.

Look, mmarquez, your generation didn't get you the shaft, but rather your judgement. You are buying something overpriced that you cannot really afford. Any look at rent vs buy fundamentals will tell you the former, and the fact that you contributed nothing to the down payment from your own savings will tell you the latter. Realize that people making 10x what you make with enough cash to buy a place outright choose not to buy at these prices. You are promulgating the bubble, so it's ironic that you complain about it.

Your generation was given the most crazy-cheap stock prices in decades this past year, arguably back to the 1930s. Your generation also is being given a great opportunity on rent in NYC: rather than going up 20% in line with inflation since 2002, rents are at 2002 levels. The opportunities are out there, but not necessarily in the places you'd like. So you simply adjust. If you had money in 1998, you could have complained about stock valuations and bought anyways, or you could have put that money in a more favorable-looking investment like housing. Every generation is given the opportunity to be shafted, it's your choice whether or not to take that shafting.

nyc10023...I agree that inventory is moving. Whether or not the prices are 'reasonable' is in the eye of the beholder. 2006/2007 prices don't excite me at all. But someone is buying, that's for sure.

congrats wannabuy.

transactions clearly picked up, but couldn't stay depressed at "panic" levels for so long. wonder whether prices & transactions would be today without all the $ printing targeted towards housing (FED buying MBS, fannie and freddie bailouts, FHA taking over the mtg mkt, FED cutting rates to 0%, homebuyer's tax credit).

i'm really looking forward to watch what prices have to say once these $ printing activities are finally withdrawn (specially once rates end up moving up). defaults from prime and FHA will keep on increasing and may eventually hit the auction block without cuts on principal across the board. would that ever happen ("universal" cramdowns)?

imho it's still better to rent than to buy in nyc, but in many other parts of the country buying might be already better than renting.

mmarquez, huge numbers of people who would have been able to buy in the past weren't able to do so the last 10 years or so. it was all a question of timing, and savings on hand at a certain point in time. it wasn't just your generation, i know many middle-aged people who never bought, and aren't certain they'll ever be able to.

i mostly follow downtown, all prices and all sizes. i'm seeing listing prices all over the place, i'm seeing very stale listings, and i'm not sensing any particular urgency or crowded open houses. i saw 8 units a couple of weeks ago, i didn't care for any of them, but they weren't (half of them, at least) necessarily overpriced for this market, i just wouldn't go for them. recorded sales for downtown reveal a total crap show.

It's also partially demographics (not an NYC-exclusive issue). People are settling into their careers later in life, marrying later, having children later, etc. A couple in their mid-30s is not in the same position as a couple in their mid-30s 20 years ago, inflation of house prices aside.

People are willing to pay up more for conveniences, in general - for instance (and again, this is not just NYC), it would have been unimaginable for a middle-class (I'm not talking about NYCMatt's definition) family with 2 working parents to have a cleaning person 20+ years ago. Now it's ubiquitous in my non-NYC social circles.

"My generation really got the shaft - there's no other way around it."

That is the funniest thing I read here in months. Maybe ever. It is only because your generation was born into and raised on unprecedented wealth and an astonishing level of self-entitlement, that you somehow now believe that you got the shaft.

Kiss, what I think that most (brokers) are not accounting for with all the news of the huge bonus money coming after the new year, is that those bonus recipients might be newly minted fiscal conservatives. They all had to look over the precipice - even Goldman guys --during those frightening months after Lehman collapse. If they are profligate with their bonus bucks and don't realize it could happen again, then they are fools. As they buy new apts, no one considers that they might be seeking value too -- and it is just not in the NYC market right now. My free spending nephew had an epiphany on the day he saw his tough A-type bosses cry at Morgan Stanley when they thought they were about to go belly up. Even with the recent upswing in the market, he now saves every penny.

"My generation really got the shaft - there's no other way around it."

it is true it's the one that got hit first. but it's timing, it doesn't really matter. if the young keep on having it hard, the old will too soon enough (no matter how organized they are through the AARP and the like). in a pay as you go system, there's so much juice you can squeeze from a young working family wallet.

the stock mkt and real estate mkt are also basically inter generational transfers. i personally don't believe it's possible for one generation to squeeze the other (not for long that is) and not suffer the consequences.

I think I'm older than mmarquez, or at least I run in older circles (I graduated from college very young). In some ways, we did get "shafted" - there is NO question that the opportunities available to an average college graduate in the 1960s were much broader, deeper and richer than those available to college graduates of 10-15 years ago. On the other hand, there are many more college graduates - having an undergrad degree has been cheapened. Add to that the changing global economy. Obviously we are also somewhat entitled, having been raised in an era of affluence, but there is understandably some shock of adjustment to the new reality. Anecdotally, the people from my graduating class who have done the best materially are those who went looking in new markets, usually abroad, in the early-mid 90s.

alright i'm going to revise and be more specific. We weren't shafted because housing prices have been too high. We've been shafted mostly because of the cost of college and the poor economy since 2001. We're told that we need to go to college to get the best job, but then when you graduate and the jobs are not there, you're still stuck paying for the loans as well as health insurance. That combo right there is the killer.

NYC's problem of having not many middle-class jobs, and very high housing prices has made it nearly impossible for most young people to own. But I guess that is the price you pay for trying to live in nyc. So I agree - that in itself is not getting the shaft. And I guess the benefit now is cheap rents if you wanted to rent.

The main reason we're buying now is that we know where we want to be for a very long time and we have to move in the next few months anyways. Implicitly, we're betting on a rebound within the next 6 years.

"That is the funniest thing I read here in months. Maybe ever. It is only because your generation was born into and raised on unprecedented wealth and an astonishing level of self-entitlement, that you somehow now believe that you got the shaft."

hey, don't take it the wrong way, this is kind of off topic. i find it very funny that old people getting entitlements that are the biggest fiscal time bomb for this country (i realize this is likely not your case) use the word "entitlement" to criticize the young that pay for that huge ponzi on their behalf. do these old folks even realize of how grateful they should be towards these youngsters? maybe the young are not smart enough to complain about the old not modifying SS and Medicare to make it fiscally feasible. but they should and make the old pay for that "entitlement" (ie: allowing themselves to keep on passing "to be paid" to the next generation).

It's not the cost of the college or the poor economy by itself, it's the supply of college grads. 40 years ago, most people didn't go to college, period. My parents went to college, when going to college was not the norm - and from their perspective, having a college degree was a little like a winning lottery ticket. Now it's armed race, it's not sufficient to have a degree from Podunk, you need to get into the best college possible so that you'll recruited (this is when times were more flush) and you need to get "experience" (aka internships). It's a different ball game. And the West is in a post-industrialization phase, so one has to think out of the box to make the same kind of living (if it's even possible) as a generation ago when the rest of the world was digging out of WWII rubble or living behind the Iron/Bamboo Curtain.

I'm hoping that they finally raise the retirement age. People live longer, it just makes sense that they should work longer.

By all historical measures, price vs. rent, price vs. income, Manhattan prices and probably prices in the whole metropolitan area are still very inflated. Knowing this however isn't enough to predict what will happen because the government has been manipulating the market for years. First they kept interest rates ridiculously low for years feeding the bubble and now they can't let it burst. Government policies also have funneled obscene amounts of money into the hands of New York financial employees. These people are making enough money that their children will be able to afford very overpriced housing and probably their grandchildren too. apt23 - look at the numbers of people who have made several million dollars in bonuses alone every year for years. Many, many people. When your nephew gets $5 million in one year, he'll be able to buy a $2 million apartment.

By all historical measures, price vs. rent, price vs. income, Manhattan prices and probably prices in the whole metropolitan area are still very inflated. Knowing this however isn't enough to predict what will happen because the government has been manipulating the market for years. First they kept interest rates ridiculously low for years feeding the bubble and now they can't let it burst. Government policies also have funneled obscene amounts of money into the hands of New York financial employees. These people are making enough money that their children will be able to afford very overpriced housing and probably their grandchildren too. apt23 - look at the numbers of people who have made several million dollars in bonuses alone every year for years. Many, many people. When your nephew gets $5 million in one year, he'll be able to buy a $2 million apartment.

By all historical measures, price vs. rent, price vs. income, Manhattan prices and probably prices in the whole metropolitan area are still very inflated. Knowing this however isn't enough to predict what will happen because the government has been manipulating the market for years. First they kept interest rates ridiculously low for years feeding the bubble and now they can't let it burst. Government policies also have funneled obscene amounts of money into the hands of New York financial employees. These people are making enough money that their children will be able to afford very overpriced housing and probably their grandchildren too. apt23 - look at the numbers of people who have made several million dollars in bonuses alone every year for years. Many, many people. When your nephew gets $5 million in one year, he'll be able to buy a $2 million apartment.

"It's not the cost of the college or the poor economy by itself, it's the supply of college grads. 40 years ago, most people didn't go to college, period."

yep, the returns for college are just not there already for many careers. it's also an amazing waste when it's needed to proof that you are smart. why not using a single test for that? college becoming an extension of high school is an amazing waste of time, energy, money...

"I'm hoping that they finally raise the retirement age. "

i'm hoping that when cuts have to be made they will be mean tested. so that the original idea of avoiding poverty at an old age is respected. today it works as a system that subsidizes inheritances for middle and up households and shifts poverty rates from the old to kids. why should a poor worker that will die much sooner have to pay the bills of a guy that will leave a million to his kids? ridiculous! ask people to pay their bills, and when they cannot, help them out. (kind of like buying insurance in case you become poor).

nyc10023- I couldn't agree more than college has been dumbed down. I don't know which was dumbed down first, undergrad or high school, but it is pretty ridiculous the way things have become .

nyc10023 - I couldn't agree more that highschool and undergrad have been dumbed down considerably. I couldn't say which happened first. But that in itself isn't what fueled the hypercompetition. It's also been the reduction in the ratio of good job opportunities versus qualified people.

I love it when people say the retirement age should be raised. There aren't nearly enough jobs now. Try getting a job when you're over 50. Many people over 65 can't work. My uncle loaded trucks for a living. Some people climb on roofs. Even some people who work with their brains just can't do the work they've been doing when they're older. Hollywood doesn't want old screenwriters and advertising agencies don't want old copywriters. I knew someone who used to say, "They can be greeters at Walmart". I think her husband may be out of a job now. I hope they're both greeters at Walmart. Hell, everyone can become a greeter, right?

I'm wondering if anyone has done a survey of the SE board people. I think that the majority of posters are older than me and come from a much different socioeconomic background and believe that it would really put people's comments in perspective. This is what I would ask:

1) How old are you?
2) What is your job / salary?
3) Were your parents millionaires?
4) DO you believe poor people who live in nycha housing are just lazy?
5) Do you believe that people under 30 are entitled because they are upset that the job prospects in the next 5 years look terrible, they're saddled with college debt and ridiculous health ins. costs?
6) Are you ok with the fact that the US spends billions on unnecessary wars overseas and bank bailouts, yet it can't afford to spend money to help provide jobs and healthcare for all of it citizens?
7) Do you think that teaching in a poor public nyc school is a really cushy, easy career?

apt23, I agree with you re coming WS bonuses. With pressure to ratchet back on large cash payouts, there will be more stock/option components, and deferrals subject to vesting and even clawbacks in some cases. Plus the cultural change in mindset you point out, I think the effect of the bonus season this year will be ephemeral.

I am in the trenches and I agree with newyorkgirl. Prices are creeping up once again. In my experience sellers are not accepting low-ball offers in spite of unrealistic pricing or new comps. We are just kidding ourselves.

admin: I completely agree. I started looking at population charts when I was young - in my twenties-- and realized that I would probably not get social security benefits because it was unsustainable. I started saving for my retirement very early - not a prevalent practice in my generation. And it is going to get worse. The rising Latino population base is not going to work their asses off to support a bunch of old golfing geezers in Florida. But change won't happen unless the young middle class starts organizing and agitating NOW. And, really that is unlikely because they were born into an era of great privilege and the residue of that era is compliance and complacency.

mmarquez-- since you have outlined a difficult road ahead for you and your generation, why don't you consider renting for a couple of years until you get a fix on the rapidly changing RE market and the economy. You may miss out on a windfall profit but you also might avoid the risk of bankruptcy. Unless you have a BIG savings cushion, owning RE that you can't sell is a guaranteed road to ruin. That is exactly what happened across the country the past few years. I think you should study those lessons. Don't let this privileged generation pull you into one more trap. Prices went up over 400% over the past 10 years. There is no guarantee it won't go down significantly over the next 6 years.

MM: I don't think anyone is going to post their backgrounds on here (except for maybe AR, who really is WYSIWYG). Come out to a meet and greet sometime.

I don't feel particularly sorry for anyone (in general, there are always extreme examples) who has the great good fortune/luck/whatever to be born into an affluent society like ours, whether it's this generation or the last.

We also have the tools (or did, anyway) to ensure continued prosperity and good health through wise governance, but that's something sorely lacking these days.

IMO, if you are a breeder, then try to teach your children that there is a whole world out there, and not to get too bound to the U.S. or the West. The fleet-footed, as always, inherit the world.

NYRENewbie, corrections rarely run in a linear fashion. some people will throw up their hands and pay more. others won't, or more to the point, can't.

your wall street hot shot is not buying a 2/2 at 79th and york in a post-war building. and if said hot shot wants a new construction condo, there are plenty available for the asking.

we seem to work ourselves into a frenzy any time there is the slightest hint that things might be stabilizing, even if only temporarily. unemployment is rampant and not declining any time soon. many people who work in publishing, advertising, the law, medicine, education, journalism, etc. own their homes. many are now unemployed or making significantly less money. it is sad, but it takes time for that type of situation to work its way through the real estate trenches. people will spend savings trying to stay in their homes. it takes time for the developers and banks to decide to cut prices to clear inventory. this all takes time.

mmarquez110 - Why don't you just give us your address already so we'll know where to send the checks.

I think the most glaring example of this is 320 west 90th street. Here 3F is listed for $1.1 when 4F closed for 950 in Sept. 09. Just doesn't make sense given the lower floor and similar renovations. http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/479392-coop-320-west-90th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

lol spinnaker. I need to go bankrupt first so I can go on MEDICAID and get into NYCHA. then you can send over the checks.

apt23 - we're closing in a few weeks so its a little late for that. I'm not too worried though. We'd probably stay in this place for many years unless we outgrew it and it was unbearable. But if the choice came down to living in a cramped situation vs. losing 100K, I think we'd just live a little cramped for a few years.

nyc10023- yes people (including myself) often compare themselves to those who are in a much better situation rather than those (most of the world) in a much worse situation.

Sideline searcher - I agree with you reqarding the apartment on west 90th. There is nothing wonderful abount that space and based upon the comp in the building, it is not worth what they are asking. But, that doesn't mean that the owner can't "dream" and hope that there is an uninformed buyer who isn't aware of the current sales occuring in the neighborhood. Of course, that would never be us as we have access to SE & Acris. Knowledge is power!

Turned as in 'curdled'?, yes. It's that stage right bf the mold starts to grow, and the milk pours out in chunks. Hate when that happens when I'm rigth about to enjoy my coffee and pur It in and go 'damn!'. Thatz why I've been buying lactaid, longer shelf life.

mmarquez110 - I hear what you're saying. this is a tough-ass city to live in and the price of RE is probably the biggest obstacle. It is INCREDIBLY difficult when starting from scratch (at this point, we ARE the "family money" ;). Hubby and I saved very aggressively the first 3-4 years we were here, but once the little one(s) appeared and space became an issue, the money flies out the door. Bottom-line: the city is a beast. You need to make A LOT or be handed A LOT to do really well here.

"I'm hoping that they finally raise the retirement age. People live longer, it just makes sense that they should work longer."

Wow. What an elitist thing to say.

Actually, life expectancy in the U.S. hasn't changed much over the past 30 years ... only about seven years or so.

So you think everyone should just pretty much work until they drop dead, yes? No retirement at all?

FWIW, Halstead this week held a company-wide all-day seminar this week on how to handle the unprecedented influx of short sales and foreclosures.

How about this? Since the life expectancy increased by 7 years, how about they raise the age by 3.5 years with exceptions for severe disability?
Or maybe the older people could just agree to support Medicare for all instead of just Medicare for themselves. Yes, I'm on the edge of being ageist, but some day I'll be there myself.

The philosophy is "more money for me now". I'm not old now, I'm not looking for a job now so raise the retirement age. Won't that make it harder for everyone to get a job if those with jobs stay in the workforce longer? I'm used to being ignored on this board. And now I'm probably opening myself up to some cruel comments. But what about my comments about the difficulty of many people working any later than 65 because of lack of jobs? Exceptions for severe disability? Do you think an average 65-year-old will be hired for most jobs? Retail, construction, finance, teaching? Where should they all work?

At the time Social Security was enacted the life expectancy was less than the minimum benefit age. The population was not expected to need it - it was a lifeline to those who outlived their expectations. Age 65 was not chosen by accident -- that was at the time slightly more than the life expectancy of a white male worker. And don't be fooled by mathematical "averages." In terms of measuring cost, that is not a relevant statistic. The queston is what is the life expectancy for someone that reaches age 65. A newborn has a life expectancy of about 78. But someone who survives to age 65 has a life expectancy of 84. That is 19 years of payout.

It is only a matter of time before government faces facts and make social security needs based, but that it not going to help the system. That is one way that mmarquez's generation, and mine, are shafted. Social Security is just another form of taxation, and it will only get worse.

amazon I get your point but it only seems fair that if 65 was chosen based on life expectancy, then they should modify it as life expectancy changes. It is lopsided that there is a good social net when you are a newborn and after the age of 65. Between that time, the govt will step in when you are truly broke and bankrupt. But why should someone who is loaded get SS benefits just because they retire? Why shouldn't the government extend medicare to all ages and just charge us for it? It would certainly make medicare benefits more stable for older generations.

If you want to talk about people being selfish: Older people ( I'm really generalizing here) won't support the public option in the new bill to help reduce the costs for everyone. And I can tell you that it's not because they're scared of socialist healthcare.

"Support for the public option also varies by age. Among people age 65 and over, 49 percent favor the public option, and 38 percent are opposed. By comparison, about seven in 10 of those under age 45 support it. " http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/10/20/politics/politicalhotsheet/entry5401123.shtml

You're shafted by keeping old geezers alive. There are no jobs for people over 65! It is almost impossible for even middle class people to save enough money to support themselves without working and without social security. Interest rates in safe investments are about 2% now. If you have saved $2 million after putting your kids through college and graduate school, that's $40,000 a year. Most people in this country have a lot less.

The public pensions of Europeans whose geezer to working population is greater than ours cover a much higher percentage of their pre-retirement income. I think most countries retire people at 60 or even lower, too. And don't gloat about their going bankrupt because of it. They're in better shape than we are.

signed,

the invisible

its all ironic. as was explained to me many years ago by elder relatives, one of the big early attractions of social security was that it was presented as money that was earned from wages and therefore not seen as a handout---another form of welfare. for many, the thought of being on relief was seen as so demeaning that many seniors prior to social security chose to come close to starving rather than accept charity. but, with no means testing, there was no shame.

kind of like the reason that paulson gave for forcing all the banks to take the tarp money so that taking it wouldn't be seen as a sign of weakness.

amazon - i think we can agree that we all just feel like we're getting screwed here.

Yes. Old people also follow the philosophy of "more for me now". They'll never be young again but you will be old. It's silly to advocate starving old people because they're against the public option.

When social security was instituted, many more people had corporate pensions. Many people were in unions. Their way cheaper houses (getting back on topic) were paid for. It was a different world. We all want to live long lives and have income and medical care when we're old no matter what happens. It seems like a very small percentage of people have the security of knowing that they won't be laid-off at 57 with no pension and no possiblity of getting another job. Let's think that this could be us and increasing the age of social security could find us in a shelter for 10 years after the 401K runs out.

Yeah, I just feel screwed by whoever it was that let all the jobs get downsized and outsourced. I have 2 kids and I worry about the country they're inheriting.

I'm not advocating that they starve, just that they work more years if they're capable. And if they don't need the SS because they're loaded, then they shouldn't get it back. Yes, it would be a tax in that case. And when I'm old, I'll be okay with those rules.

Anyways, this isn't the venue to vent about this stuff. Hopefully the country will pull out of its tailspin soon.

Last word - you're right this isn't the place - do you know of a secret cache of jobs for seniors? I know lots of capable non-seniors who would like to work. I know people in their 50's who went back to school to train as teachers after getting laid off from previously "hot" fields like technology who are having a hell of a time getting a job.

And the rational for not means-testing social security was that the American public won't support something that they won't profit from.

actually, the ability of the over-55s to support themselves is incredibly relevant to the housing market. approximately one-third of all baby boomers have no savings, for many the equity in their home is their only available ready source of funds, and the boomers are just about to accelerate retirement, willingly or not, in increasingly large numbers.

maybe some of the condos can become senior living centers.

"If you have saved $2 million after putting your kids through college and graduate school, that's $40,000 a year. Most people in this country have a lot less."

According to the Labor Department, the average American today retires with less than $40,000 in combined savings and retirement accounts.

For the average American to self-fund his own retirement, he'd need a minimum of $1 million in the bank just to eke out a $30,000/year existence. And that's assuming their home is paid off (God help them if they're still RENTING), their home will need no significant repairs, the refrigerator doesn't blow up, and their car continues running right up until the day they die.

But here's the rub -- the average American worker can NEVER save up that kind of money. Even earning above the national average ($46K), our $50K/year worker would have to start saving -- and never ever touch -- 40% of his pre-tax income every single year starting at age 20 (assuming he starts earning $50K right after school), for the next 45 years.

An utter impossibility.

amazon: you do realize that social security was passed in the middle of the depression. yes, it was a different world---much, much worse than now. for millions of people, social security was the difference between life and death. and many, many of them didn't own anything much less a house.

mmarquez":And if they don't need the SS because they're loaded, then they shouldn't get it back."

Excuse me, but the premise of SS is that you work, you contribute to SS as a tax, the govt. holds it for you and then you get it back when you retire. I have saved and been conservative my entire life. But my neighbor who pissed away their income on booze and women, never saving a penny should get SS and I should not get it? I am loaded and frankly if there is SS when I get around to that age, I will take every penny coming to me. I do think they should gradually escalate the age because the system is broken and everyone should sacrifice a bit. However, the only way that is going to happen is if the young organize politically and fight for it. You are not going to get the older masses to support any measure to change their benefits.

And, btw, I am for the public option. I think the govt should support the masses. I just wish they wouldn't support a broken financial system. Health care, yes. A tax incentive for homebuyers, no.

NYCMatt: 40% of pretax income? Try 5% of pretax income, assuming a modest 6% average annual interest/investment return rate.

You can't just divide a million by 45 unless the money is being deposited under this theoretical worker's mattress.

Assuming a modest 6% average interest return. What planet do you live on? CDs are less than 2% now.

I'm assuming an average return over the course of *45 years* in a diversified portfolio. Not a crazy assumption, IMHO. But tweak the rate of return and/or the savings rate up or down a percent or two -- Matt is still way off.

The interest rate that's relevant to retirees is the current interest rate. It's been very low for years which means that they have to eat into their principal to survive.

I was referring to NYCMatt's post on getting to retirement, not the sustainable rate of withdrawal once one is there. Most retirement plans assume a withdrawal of some small percentage of the principal each year. I'm sure the low interest rates are very hard on retirees. (I'm not too happy about them either!) But I think it's a nutty assumption to assume rates will stay low forever -- or that a 20-year-old investing for retirement should be putting all of his or her money in CDs.

I can only speak for myself that I too face a similar situation as mmarquez. My husband and I (both just past mid 20s) just got married this summer and were looking for our first apartment in manhattan. Mind you, we were looking in the Chelsea/Greenwich Village area which are undoubtedly expensive neighborhoods. I do feel that our generation starts out in the work force on an unequal plane, given the massive loans that many of us are graduating with due to the significant and perisistent rise in college tuition, and the "party's over" so to speak, just as we enter or recently enter the workforce. Now, I do work in finance, but nowhere near make the salaries/bonuses quoted in the press which primarily represent senior positions.

To answer the OP's original question, in my personal experience, I did find a meaningful shift in interest just after Labor Day (again in the neighborhoods I looked in). We had been looking since mid July, and had the luxury of time since our lease doesn't end until the end of January. We started putting in bids on apts we liked in mid-late August. There was one in particular we really liked, but the counterbid was still higher than recent comps so we waited. The weekend after Labor Day, the foot traffic went up fivefold. We went back to that first apartment to revise our bid, and found that someone just snapped it up at close to ask. The next few apartments we were interested in got snapped up with full cash offers. Several of the apartments that we had left as "maybes" but looked a little expensive were now under contract.

We just closed on our apartment yesterday, and we called the first day it was listed and were almost in a bidding war through the process, and we had to bid above ask. That said, the apartment was priced well for the building and the area.

In my own experience, and I am not a real estate veteran by any means, I found a market uptick for apartments that were priced well and a general pick up of interest and people doing their homework. I think comps I was looking at in July/August were things that went into contract in Mar-May and the real estate mood was more dire then. But apartments that are way overpriced for this market will still sit in my opinion.

Here is an article that I found helpful.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/15/realestate/15Cov.html

Good luck to you!

why would you buy an apartment if you have large student loans to be paid? that's the part that is generationally difficult to comprehend.

newyorkgirl you are a broker and no the market has not turned.

There's a strong possibility that at least some of the support for the conforming loan market may diminish. So many have the option of overpaying now but being able to get financing or waiting until prices decline when they are not propped up by gov''t support. If you're determined to overpay you should hurry. The option may not be there forever.

Btw ichian, that article, despite it's title, which is almost comically disconnected with the content of the article, doesn't really support your suppositions in the slightest. I am loathe to call anyone a broker but I follow Chelsea and I've been out looking and I call bullshit.

Lemmings. Pooh hooo hooo... the mkt gonna turn.. .therez a feeding frenzy..... oh my I've never waited more than 3 months for anything... opened xmas gifts on the 24th, shld be financially stable at 21, needz salad shooter NOW!!!!

LEMMINGS.... buy now, and clear this stale cesspool of inventory, these are idiots that couldn't hang onto a $1MM apt... I'm waiting for the seller that can't hang on to their $3MM units.

Yes, it is true. Student loans did not exist until five years ago.

Tuition has risen out of control, but I think education debt was even more prevalent in my day, because far fewer parents had the resources to shell out for junior's tuition. And, I scrubbed dishes in the campus dining hall for 4 years to help pay for my tuition, was required to put half of whatever I earned over the summers toward school, and chose a law school based on how much scholarship they would provide because I could not even borrow enough to pay school. Still, I started work almost 20 years ago $100K in debt. And, back then interest on all of your student loans was set the day you took out the first one -- so I had $100K+ debt at 10% interest.

It's a bit ridiculous that people on this board can't talk about their experiences without being called brokers. Ichian clearly isn't a broker because she writes far too coherently. :-)

I personally witnessed two bidding wars around Labor Day, too; my RE lawyer said her clients had been involved in four others around the same time. This doesn't mean that we'll regain 2007 prices anytime soon, but it does mean that people are no longer acting as if the apocalypse is nigh.

w67th, have we always been like this and I didn't notice? I suspect so. But doesn't it dawn on some people that if the expenditure is onerous it's not wise? Great, buy your starter apartment. Good f'ng luck selling it when you need something larger. Good luck renting it. A veritable prison, of one's own making.

Miette I tried to support carolst before the beast grew three heads. I know a number of articulate brokers. And I know the Chelsea market very well.

Oh and things are closing much faster. Many of the listings on the comps threads are now for properties that went into contract after labor day.