Manhattan housing boom continues

Holy up arrows Batman! The sky is not falling!!

No surprises. Most meaningful stat is tighter inventory.

Bear in mind that these #s are based on sales that went to contract pre-credit crunch.

okay we will bear that in mind. meanwhile it's Oct 2nd now get me your rent check

Manhattan will not see the effects until AFTER bonus season. Currently, the Manhattan market has hit the pause button, as everyone is waiting to see what happens to Wall St. after the smoke clears.

One thing that truly is unique to Manhattan is the tight inventory. We shall see what happens after bonus season. Until then, not much is going to change.

MMAfia, Even you have to admit that your "after bonus season" is a change in stance. I'm glad you are coming around to the fact that Manhattan real estate is unique and the sooner you get in, the better. I hope you get a huge bonus, buy, and stop paying spunky rent

MMAfia -I too have to agree. I now sense a little change in your attitude and I hate to say this but it's a bit refreshing.

tight inventory?

do any of the esteemed posters here know how many condo units are set to be floated in 2008?

Do your homework.

Just because the stock market is down, doesn't mean EVERY STOCK is down.
However, it also true that not every stock can keep going up forever.
Even a high soaring stock has some bumps along the way on a big run, but focus on good fundamentals.

Further true that stocks are pieces of paper (digital now?) while real estate is something you live in.

This debate will never end. Yawn.

Market hits all time high.

Inventory still tight.

Manhattan sales prices continue up.

Somewhere in the world it is 5:00.

MMafia and zizizi continue with dour predictions.

Some things never change!

Here's my two cents from the (sigh) low end of the spectrum. Today's Street Easy email for downtown Manhattan + Chelsea 1br+ up to $700k: 1 new listing, 3 price decreases, 1 price increase, but the unit that's up is actually down 8% from it's original ask. The listing goes up or down by $4k every couple of weeks for months now.

As yournamehere mentions, all this is data from 'pre credit crisis'...

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/02/nyregion/02estate.html?_r=3&ref=nyregion&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

"Jonathan Miller, executive vice president and director of research for Radar Logic Inc., which tracked the numbers for Prudential Douglas Elliman, said that any qualms buyers might have had because of the credit crisis this summer would not have shown up in the third-quarter data."

"But brokers and the economists who prepared the reports stressed that the numbers mainly reflected buyers who went to contract for apartments weeks before the national credit crisis hit and before many people grew more cautious about buying. For instance, many of the co-ops that closed in the last quarter actually went into contract during the spring, and many buyers of newly built condos put down payments on their apartments months, even years, before their units were finished this summer."

“Housing is a trailing indicator of economic conditions,” Mr. Miller said. “We most likely won’t see a reaction until after the new year to the credit crunch. (yep, exactly, after bonus season as I've mentioned before).

So, again, old data, not current and potentially misleading to those who don't understand that things have changed dramatically in the credit/mortgage/wallst space since then.

I've been looking at listings for about 13 years. In that time I've bought and sold one co-op and one condo in the city, and a house upstate. For the last four years I've been renting a "luxury" apartment in Peter Cooper. I have been waiting for prices to drop. Today on the NYT's real estate web I noticed a sharp increase in inventory, especially new condo developments. Corcoran has rolled out multiple new listings in their buildings. Oddly, a search on Streeteasy comes up with only 444 new listings in Manhattan, NYT comes up with 1817. Inventory has been low and time on the market figures have been also low because of the release patterns of the developers. We're finally at a point where there are too many completed condo units for the developers to hold back release and still stay financially viable. Banks want their money. Sales have been high because lending practices virtually eliminated the need for mortgage insurance, enabling many to qualify that wouldn't have been able to. WE DON'T HAVE THE COLLECTIVE INCOMES TO SUPPORT THE 65,000 MORE LUXURY RESIDENTIAL UNITS BEING BUILT OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS. Not at these prices at least.

guy, no insult intended, but you have no idea who has what out here. and in certain neighborhoods there is NO new condo inventory. and seriously. PCV is not luxury and if your waiting for prices to drop, they have 'dropped' in that they haven't gone up as briskly as they had in the last 2-3 yrs. thats the only drop i see. its happening.

I guess you didn't notice the irony in my "luxury" quote. I'm fully aware of what is out there. My daughter goes to an all-girls' school on the upper east side, and my husband is a partner in a large international law firm. The top one half of one percent, income wise, is a finite number. I'm in the top one percent, and it still hasn't been economically prudent to exchange my crappy two bedroom (at $3700 and fully renovated, high floor, AWFUL location it's still a better deal than the $7000 after taxes I'd be paying for a tiny 2 bedroom at any of the glass boxes that have gone up).

I recently had one sales director at a development tell me that a unit wasn't available but "could be if I wanted to buy it." How's that for inventory control?

aboutready - Wait until your next 15% rent increase letter with the bolded "not negotiable" large print. That glass box will look more attractive given the location is better, you get a doorman instead of a bunch of thug looking rent-a-cops strolling around the 'project' and you dont have to use a key card so that the owners can track your every move.

Actually, no it won't. I don't really care about the lack of doorman, the keycard, even the 15% wouldn't be that high. Most of the "thugs" are actually quite pleasant. And, I'm not sure they'll be getting 15% this coming March, generally a slow time for renting. I do care, I'll confess, about the lack of restaurants.

I do still own the property upstate, a 4 bedroom, 4 bath 1799 center-hall colonial, totally renovated and on over 2 acres. This was our consolation present to ourselves when we sold our Chelsea condo loft, and at $350,000, it was a great investment. To buy my glass box I'd have to sell the upstate property. The closing costs for those glass boxes are outrageous, not to mention the down payment. In about another year or so I'll have saved enough so that I'll be able to afford both, and I'm grateful that I have to wait. While as each year creeps by I'm getting older, even my real estate broker agrees that as a buyer I'll likely have better options then.

Hmm.

The big luxury buildings that aboutready refers to could bring some downward pressure in "way out east" or "way out west" neighborhoods. But for the most part, the desirable neighborhoods don't have enough new developments to knock the bottom out of the market. And there's a lot of people on the sidelines -- too many to permit an appreciable drop. 2 or 3 brs are insanely priced these days though; maybe there'll be some drops there.

Noah on urbandigs flushes out the duplicate listings from the NYT on his inventory report. That's probably a more reliable gauge. Also, I'm sure you're already aware that Tishman is going to raise rents in PCV and stuy town.

Different strokes I guess and we will have to reconnect in March b/c I hear that PCV and StuyTown are asking a minimum of +15% on all renewals. Much of this is due to all the folks on the sidelines waiting which is having a real impact on rentals given the lack of inventory. As for restaurants - the newish mexican place is pretty good - if you can deal with the lack of service.

I'm only looking at 2 and 3 bedrooms, actually. If you look at the development plans (which I haven't personally, but I've discussed them with some in the know), way out west, east, and uptown are going to be so developed, assuming no massive crash in financing, over the next few years that they'll become like mini-cities in their own right. I well remember laughing at Battery Park City when it was first developed. Ha ha ha.

masterq - I can see studios and one beds flat or dropping but I have a hard time believing that 2/3 bedrooms price will decline. We all read about the lack of inventory and even with all the new construction there aren't enough family appropriate homes. This was ok 10 years ago but now families stay in NYC. Plus, look at all the newish construction - avg 2 beds are 1100 square feet at best - I've seen some as small as 900. I think its the larger units that even though are priced in with a real premium for the extra rooms and square footage will keep their value and appreciate faster unless there is another unforeseen even like 9/11.

Where are these families going to send their children to pre-school? Also, there's been a massive increase in schools for younger children with special needs, but they need high schools and middle schools to go to. If you're paying 2.0 mil (and way, way up) for your three bedroom, and can afford over $30,000 per child for private school (not including after school, camp, etc.), you're going to want a spot. We already have a shortage of pre-school spots, and it's not exactly a lucrative business at this point. Eventually, if and when the city consists of only bankers, the preschools can also charge $30,000 a head, and will be able to expand.
I know many families with young children who have no intention of remaining in the city once their children reach school age. They can't afford it. Those suburban homes, with their falling prices and education for only the price of taxes, will again look better. And the cycle continues.

The NYC dept of ed expects public school enrollment to decline through 2015. Either they expect a lot of new private schools or they're out of touch with the new developments and the trend towards raising kids in the city. http://source.nycsca.org/pdf/grier_vol_II_2006-2015.pdf

Actually, I think they believe that families are going to move to the suburbs. The population report, at least the one I read (issued under Rudy a few years ago), indicates that the one area they can't predict is the rate of family flight. As I wrote, I don't know that people paying that kind of money for their property are going to be content with the public system, generally.

So in 2003 you sold a condo loft in Chelsea way too soon. You won't see 2003 prices again although I agree that prices will retrace to about 2005 levels in 2008. In other words a 2BR 1500 sqft condo in Chelsea that sold for about $1M in 2003 would have sold for about $1.6M in 2005 and $1.7M in 2007 so you shuold be able to get it for $1.6M again in 2008. I hope you would have made another 600K on that 350K house by then.

In the mean time you have lived in a crappy 2br apt in a crappy area for the last 4 years with a young daughter. All because you thought Manhattan prices were too high and that renting is cheaper than buying with no regard to quality of life in that equation.

You know families with young children who have no intention of remaining in the city once their children reach school age, yet we are touring schools right now and no one I know from our preschcool downtown (or other preschools where our other friends have their kids) is moving out to the burbs. Who's example is right? No idea but you certainly can't use your example to prove your point against nba.

It flipped for about $300,000 more in 2006. It wasn't a great unit, needed new kitchen and baths, was on 23rd St., no doorman, etc. And it's going to lose its best asset soon, the light, when the developments on 22nd between 6th and 7th are completed. When I sold I had no idea the market would be artificially manipulated through changing lending practices, nor could I have.

Actually, other than the location the apartment is quite lovely. They did very nice renovations for this type of rental (maple cabinets, granite, etc.)and we moved in right after it was renovated. It is 1200 sf (the condo was 1300sf), is on a high floor with great light. I don't care for the location, but it's great for kids. My daughter goes to school on the upper east, and Kindergarten was a killer commute. I pay almost exactly the same for the unit, the house, the car and the garage together as I would have for the condo, so I don't see how you can say I gave no thought to quality of life.

I have made a few hundred thousand on the house. I bought from desperate sellers who were carrying two mortgages.

Only time will tell if families are able and willing to find places for their children. The people I was referring to have infants and toddlers, some aren't even bothering to apply to preschools. I'll look for the city's report, which does indeed predict a declining number of school-aged children, and list the link. But think about it. The city doesn't even have 100 extra pre-school spots, and residential unit development is supposed to "level off" to only 30,000 new units in the year 2009, down from 35,000 this year. I think 2008 is somewhere in between. Over 90,000 new units. Not all of them will be tiny.

You were the one who said you lived in a crappy 2 BR in an AWFUL location.

When you say the city doesn't even have 100 extra pre-school spots are you talking about public school pre-k? No one I know sends their kids to public pre-k because there are, as you say, hardly any spots. Where I live downtown it's all private pre-k and, despite the competition to get it, there are some spots without any waiting lists or competition for people that want to take a chance on brand new schools without a track record.

Just so you know for the next time, in all prior RE cycles, the last year before the peak has generally exhibited the largest gains in prices due to the fear that grips people in a bubble market - the fear of being priced out etc. - so to sell before that final year has run its course means that you leave your largest gains on the table. To capture those final year gains, all you have to do is sell after you observe selling prices coming down after torrid gains.

I too thought as you did that all that extra new inventory coming on stream in 2005 and 2006 (over and above what was normal in the preceding 5 years) would surely mean excess inventory that would lead to price declines but all that extra inventory was absorbed. I don't have the numbers for 2007 and 2008 so I will take your word for it because it does jibe with my view that 2008 and 2009 will be the best time to buy again but with prices only dropping to 2005 levels.

2005 levels? Your talking about a 15-20%+ correction. Ain't gonna happen.

so my downtown building just sent us the offering plan, and it's making my head spin the prices they are asking for.our insider price is a 5 % discount on our apartment ( non renovated ) and they price is high to start with. there are over 400 plus apts and either they know something we all don't know as there seems to price decrease, and downtown there is a lot of inventory. and is a 5 % fair specially with no broker fees or renevation ?

also i didn't know that there is public pre-k,

Nope juiceman.
6.25% in my chelsea 2BR condo example. Read it again.
I'm not talking averages.

There was an article in the New York Sun 10/22 about private school capacity.

I was on the board of my daughter's PRIVATE pre-school.

How much inventory has actually been absorbed? About 10,000 units have been listed this year, there are 8-10,000 on the market now, and between 2007-2009 about 90,000 units will be developed, obviously some will be rentals but all will be luxury. 10,000 - 90,000 is quite a spread.

What constitutes torrid gains? In 1995, admittedly a very low year, there where quite a few 1300 units in the $200-250K range, or less than $200 per square foot. In 2003 many units were going for over $800 per square foot. A 400% increase seems quite significant to me. Obviously I sold at the wrong time, but I still contend that this market has been heavily juiced by extremely easy money.

BTW, I do own in Manhattan and elsewhere in nyc so I am not a bitter renter.

I'm not bitter in the slightest. I would like a dining room before I turn 50, and that is much more than many will get. I don't live with three children in a fifth floor walk-up one bedroom like one family I know. It does seem like one with a fairly high income should be able to spend less than 35-40% of take home income on a reasonable, decent (purchased) apartment in a reasonable market. I will buy, just not right now.

One parent from my daughter's school said of my apartment, "And this is all you really need, isn't it?" I won't describe their 5th Avenue apartment to you. Need and want are such subjective concepts.

my bitter renter comment was not at you aboutready. It was related to my post to juiceman.

By torrid I mean in a one year period. Look at the YOY increases.

You can't go on just fundamentals in RE. There is a herd mentality to both buyers and sellers and emotions come into it in a very big way. MMafia talks about it when he talks about buyer sentiment or whatever it is he says. Thus prices overshoot fundamentals for a long time by a wide margin. 3 years (the big 97 to 2000 jump) is way too short of a time period to let that whole fear, caution, optimism, euphoria, fear cycle to play out. Let it run for at least 6 years before deciding to sell to time the market.

The preschool in tribeca on ericsson place near the police station is new this year and had plenty of spaces. Other preschools, as you well know, do not have problems raising huge amounts of money from the parents so it is not a bad "business". Charge enough to pay your teachers and cover operating costs and then do your annual auction to pay for the big ticket items and teacher training/401k etc.

Thanks for the bitter clarification.

Only a very few preschools have that luxury (All Souls, St. Barts, Episcopal, etc.). I ran the fundraising effort at my daughter's school in the Gramercy area, and I can tell you, we didn't get a ton. Many, many parents only want schools with proven placement records, as you well know.

My Chelsea condo went from not selling in six months at $650 per square foot to going over asking in two days at $750 square foot in less than a year.

I'm not deciding when to sell. I'm now deciding when to buy. We bought our first apartment when we were 26 years old, right before my husband went to law school, because I FIRMLY believe real estate is generally a good investment. I'm just responding to those who think there will be no downturn. The numbers have to affect mentality at some point. And these are numbers like we've NEVER seen before. At the start of the construction boom there were 150,000 co-op units and only 30,000 condo units. We're adding well over 100,000 luxury units to the market over the next few years. 180,000 - 280,000.
The city estimates (without excessive suburban flight, which it admits it can't control for) 290,000 more people moving to Manhattan. But the greatest rate of increase is already happening: 2000-2010 (I can't find a more specific breakdown). 2010-2020 will have growth, but lesser, and 2020-30, should increase again.

Obviously these numbers could be flawed, but if they're correct, it doesn't seem lovely combined with the credit crunch.

BTW, no one has remarked on the practices (release patterns, etc.) that have been skewing inventory and days on market figures. I think this is the type of thing that greatly affects that herd mentality. Many buildings have topped off and if their developers need to speed up sales to make payment schedules to banks I think you could see some real change.

aboutready are these numbers: " At the start of the construction boom there were 150,000 co-op units and only 30,000 condo units. We're adding well over 100,000 luxury units to the market over the next few years. 180,000 - 280,000" include buliding conversions from rentals to condo ? also i don't understnad with all that's going on why so many conversions are happening if it seems like a renters market ?

I have no idea what you are talking about exis, I never said you were a bitter renter. Nor would I care if you were. I understand what you meant regarding the 6.25%

Actually that is a good question, I'm not sure (about the numbers). There have been a number of conversions, obviously,and there seems to have been a spike recently. Some, but certainly not most, have been from luxury to luxury. Rupert on the Upper East is an obvious exception. A lot have been commercial conversions (think Chelsea). Conversions have been occurring because long-term demographic info indicated the need and the MONEY WAS REALLY CHEAP. It's very hard to figure out the numbers, and I don't think that's a coincidence.

You also have to remember that these numbers don't include the West Side development that will occur to pay for the subway extension from the west side to Grand Central. I think bids were just submitted for the railyards. You may say ick to the idea of the far west, but it is going to rock our real estate world (kind of like you guys are doing downtown right now).

It's not a renters or a buyers market right now. I think it will be in the future. It is in flux. I have heard that my $3700 apartment is being peddled generally at about $6000 right now. Not going to do it. I've also been hearing that Tishman is offering crazy incentives to brokers who do well in the complex.

I'm considering Harlem anyway, so maybe I'll rent. (Before your all jump down my throat at this, please check the crime statistics. I can rent a lovely three bedroom unit in a townhouse for about $3500 (in Central Harlem, 110th to 125th and St. Nick to 5th). And, I started out in Hispanic Chelsea (back then) and had a number of Hell's Kitchen apartments. Nothing necessarily to be proud about, but I do think Manhattan is becoming a bit insular.

we have so many conversions downtown, it seems that there is alot of inventory here... and i hear some parts of harlem are amazing

Actually, you are so right. I wasn't necessarily happy with the facade nor the selling practices of the Kalahari, and you can't get any info on available units on Street Easy, but I saw 3-4 bedrooms there in the 1.4 - 1.6 million range (about 2200 square feet, with lovely outdoor space) with 25 year REAL tax abatements, low carrying charges and really nice finishes. Having said that, I think they will increase in value but the market for large units in Central Harlem seems so variable. I know that almost half the units in that building went to middle income purchasers (to me a plus, the building is diverse and already half sold). I also know that the developers paid almost nothing for the land (true for many of the Harlem developments) so you can figure out how much room they have for negotiation. If you want Harlem, particularly large, wait a bit unless you see something that really gets you. It's so close to Central Park but I think people are still worried about the "family" nature of the area. I have been trolling the hood, and I find it absolutely charming. Obviously, from my previous post, I am concerned about the capacity issue for private schools. Private schools also consider an "alternative" address when considering diversity, and perversely living in Harlem is only a plus.

Juiceman - 2008": I'm glad you are coming around to the fact that Manhattan real estate is unique and the sooner you get in, the better."

Oops.

Juiceman - 2008: "2005 levels? Your talking about a 15-20%+ correction. Ain't gonna happen."

Oops.

Beware of prognostications made today by those who have been consistently wrong in the past.

wow, just look at how stupid i was. all because i was personally interested in a property. thankfully i came to my senses and ran quickly (that's actually when i learned that pmi was no longer necessary and that 10% down and 10% HELOCs had become the norm).

well, at least i was only situationally, not consistently, wrong. JM, our words do indeed live to haunt us. you were wrong. be a man and admit it.

I miss spunky.

This very spacious 4 bd/ 3.5 bath at the Kalahari sold at $1.2mm in April 2010. AR you might have missed a great deal: After-tax cost of owning is likely around $4,000 per mo today. And in 30 years, the buyer 1) owns outright; 2) neighborhood may be better.

pmg, i was looking in 2007. not 2010. in 2009 i noted that some of the larger units might become relative bargains. and, as i've indicated SOOO many times, i'm not interested in buying. 30 years from now i'm not likely to be anywhere near here, and i'm not likely to want to be in a condo in harlem.

i'm likely to have a largish home that i've paid all cash for on the shores of lake washington. or maybe not. i'm flexible, that's the wonderful thing about renting, particularly when you're less than 20 years from retiring and aren't sure where you'll be and your family has incredible flexibility in terms of where post-retirement income can be earned.

convince someone else. i'm not game.

besides, i've been in the building since then, post-completion, and i really don't like the apartments. the rooms seem very, very small.

ar, good for you for not only standing your ground amidst the cattle prodding, but being spot on in your analysis. all the others who consistently pat themselves on the back here (you know who you are) can't touch this with a stick.

I should be an oracle

AR you can be very smug just because you make an easy and cogent case for not buying in 2007 You need to own up to your lost equity building opportunity since you started owning in 1995. Even if you were cramped, the equity you would have built by not swapping, paying brokers fees, taxes, buying again and selling again. You could have sold that first place in 2005 or 2006 and you would be far better off today and free to rent the larger place you need.. Excessive selling and buying were not your finest decisions.

> I should be an oracle

Yes, a reverse indicator, like Steve and SteveF...

bsx:
"juiceman - 2008": I'm glad you are coming around to the fact that Manhattan real estate is unique and the sooner you get in, the better."

Oops.

Juiceman - 2008: "2005 levels? Your talking about a 15-20%+ correction. Ain't gonna happen."

Oops.

Beware of prognostications made today by those who have been consistently wrong in the past."

bingo

fuck you pmg. i'm happy with my decisions. i've made a lot of money both in real estate and the market. i don't feel that lost opportunities should make me lose any sleep. we have huge earning capacity over the next 20 years, far more than we need to live very well, and i'm glad i didn't buy for many reasons.

so don't look to me to be one of the sheeple who supports the market so that the value of your property doesn't decline.

i really, really don't get why you care so much that i want to remain in a $3000 RS apartment. you seem to have some personal issues with my situation.

believe me, on a rent/buy basis i've saved a shitload. and staying in the 1995 coop wasn't an option as it was way too small. but i guess you know better than i do what will provide the greatest happiness vs. cost for me.

no reason to be rude: I'm just pointing out that your superior attitude is not equaled by all of your property decisions.

substitute vulgar for rude

my property decisions have been fine. and you've been rude for quite some time now. i have no idea why but you feel the need to consistently point out that i could've made more money. why yes, i could have. and in terms of superior attitude, wtf, i've always admitted that my timing was off. but really, now, my timing wasn't so bad, because i didn't get caught with something i didn't want or couldn't afford and i'm now in a place that i enjoy and can afford with oodles of money left over. so who's doing so badly in the property decisions?

good f'ng lord. i've got huge amounts of sympathy for those who got stuck in bad situations. you can only criticize someone because their situation is OK, but doesn't meet your concept of maximizing investment potential in an extremely dangerous (as we now know) market? bully for you that you were ready and able to buy at the bottom of the market. many of the people on this board can only dream of such a possibility. you call my attitude superior? your condescending attitudes reeks.

I don't know, somewhereelse - I think I did pretty well calling housing down and stocks down. Timing wasn't 100%, but then of course, unlike you, I don't limit myself to the sidelines: I say what I think. And I don't make claims of "Ouch that hurt" on a 400 point rise in the Dow, and then claim that a 1,200 point fall didn't make a dent in my holdings.

As you do.

AR is right - never look back at lost opportunities. If you do, you'll be like steveF, chasing performance forever.

I bought in 1989, at the TOP of the last cycle. I never claimed to be a market timer on homes. Buying today is risky. Is it as risky as 2 years ago? Hell no. Will we hit a bottom in a year or two. I sure hope so. Because as you have correctly pointed out, it would be dreadful if we started turning Japanese.

> I don't know, somewhereelse - I think I did pretty well calling housing down and stocks down.

I'll give you direction on housing, but your estimates were CRAZY off. Most bulls were more accurate than you.

Stocks, nope, you're just about the most wrong on this board. You have some of the worst calls I've ever seen, including calling the exact wrong direction most of the time. You called dow 11k right before we tanked. You called buy china before we tanked.

Add it up, your accuracy rate is horrific steve.

> and then claim that a 1,200 point fall didn't make a dent in my holdings.

Steve, now you're just lying.

Not to mention, you're the guy who keeps ignoring your drops!

> AR is right - never look back at lost opportunities.

Agreed.

But even worse than just looking back and opportunities you missed is missing them and claiming you didn't!

You look back left and right, and do it dishonestly.

I love your last china lie, thats my new favorite (almost beating the bragging about 6500 after you SCREAMED "I DID NOT CALL DOW 6500")

You're always good for some laughs steve.

okay, pmg, truce. i'm not sure that it's not as risky as two years ago. so there's that. what was japan's eventual real estate decline? i know they had other issues in their build up, but some of our cities could go up in flames in the next couple of years. i certainly hope not. i have no desire to see destruction. i'd like to see real estate prices float gently downward for awhile, to increase affordabiltiy and yet give those who own time to adjust. but my wishes are irrelevant.

Are you sure 1989 was the last top? 2 years after the Stock market crash? (and please don't point me to any charts relating to Coop Sales in NY, because they weren't recorded back then, so the vast majority of info disseminated from before 2003 is extremely skewed depending on the data source. Most of the companies reporting data were basing "market averages" on as few 3 sales in an area).

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future."
- Niels Bohr

"Beware of prognostications made today by those who have been consistently wrong in the past."

5% off on my predictions and this is the thanks I get. What about steve who was 35% off?

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra

30yr, I'm not sure that 1989 was the top, but I closed on a condo in April of that year, and within a year or a year and a half, I had on paper lost all of my equity. Was my transaction an anomaly for that time? Perhaps, but I wasn't the only one who bought at that price point ($425 psf) at that time.

again -- juiceman and steve f got stock low (at least the first dip) and steve got the real estate.

PMG - I don't disagree (changing dates a little) that buying in 1989 quite a few buyers lost >50% of their equity by 1992. All I meant was that there had already been cracks in the bulkhead by the end of 1988, and we heard an awful lot about how "Manhattan Coops are different" and such.

But I think we will both agree that even so, if you held the unit, there was a substantial amount of time between then and now that you would have been heavily in the plus column.

Anyone who bought in 1987, even if they stole the seller's blind and got the "deal of the century" was still f*cked in 1992, and anyone who bought in 1992 and got taken to the cleaners by the seller, way overpaying for the unit, was still a "genius" in 1997 (and a bigger genius in 2002, and ENORMOUSLY so in 2007), and still is today, even if the market drops a fairly good amount from here.