Will the Sky fall??

spunky

Now that is just hilarious.

no what's hilarious are the looks on developers, recent buyers and bankers faces...

how's the look on your face aboutready?? :-))

The look on my face is sad, I meant hilarious turning the question to Spunky.

myles=MMAfia=anon3=zizii- all renters= hehe hehe

spunky, you forgot aboutready. Oh, and anon3 doesn't rent, he owns in Scarsdale.

fyi spunky, or should we call punky.for some reason i think you bought at the top. enjoy the ride down. be assured it will rise again, barring something unmentionable.

no worries when your bank comes a call'n for the keys, i'll rent you one my places. but then again if your interested at these levels i'll sell you one . all cash.

All of the sellers right now are holding their breath, and praying that come bonus season their places will move. When they don't, we are going to see an entire markdown of inventory at once. When that happens, the foreign money will step aside, because no one buys in a deflationary environment, no matter how strong your currency is, and panic will set in. Young parents who were planning to move to the burbs in a year because the 2 bedroom is getting a little big for the family will put their place on the market today, sensing the last opportunity to reap close to $1000/ft prices, and inventories will sky rocket. Owners will realize that the long term is made up of a bunch of short terms, and all talk of "riding out the storm" will be thrown out the window. Unfortunately, entire net worths will be destroyed. How's that for a chicken little scenario?

Basic macro (and even some micro). Too many units being developed with too much easy money with too little easy money now to buy said too many units. New York's development patterns are slower (takes a lot longer to build a 200+ condo building than a suburban single-family) and more affected (somewhat) by outside forces such as foreign investment (buildings HAVE to be cutting down on percentage of units not owner-occupied).

Even though I have waited, with a tremendous amount of patience (who doesn't want their home before they get the wheelchair? A joke, but sometimes it hasn't seemed so), I don't want the destruction of this market. I, however, did not flood this economy with easy real estate dollars, nor did anyone in my family (OR I probably would already have my permanent home) so I won't feel terribly guilty when I finally purchase that unit that I would have been able to afford BUT FOR the horribly irresponsible actions of a greedy market gone awry.

In the meantime, but not for too much longer, Spunky, I sent that check, and (somewhat) happily.

If you ARE right, dmag2020 (and I don't happen to agree with your scenario, but that's ok), I would be really, really happy - it would be the buying opportunity of a lifetime. And I'd like to add that when I was purchasing Village property in 1991-1994, I had thought that was the best buying opportunity of a lifetime!

spunkuor should I call punky--That's a good one myles, that's a good one. Dam you're a genius and may I add a very creative genius at that. Punky no that's so funny. You're a genius I tell you're genius.

Spunky or should I call you punky--Dam that's funny.I can't stop laughing. myles dam you're funny.

Hey, who knows, but its entirely conceivable, and it would absolutely create a great buying opportunity for those with cash (specifically Euros and British Pounds) and the ability to borrow. As long as we're on the sky falling thread, we could take it a step further: if the dollar continues to weaken, and real estate does collapse, it could in fact spell the beginning of the end of empire, and they all do eventually come to an end. Hopefully pseudonym, you and I will be able to grab a piece of the pie. (I know, I know, you already have a big piece of it, and you have since 1975.)

the dollar falling could simply be a reversion to mean. The fact is the United states has been a hegemonic power, unilaterally for the last 20 years, and bi-lateraly for 50. The fact that China, India, Europe are awakening or re-awakening means that there needs to be an adjustement. This same type of adjustement happened at the turn of the century. The fact is American power is wanning, but that doesnt mean that it is vanishing. This re-adjustement will cause alot of change, however it is not the end of empire just a re-adjustement in size. Lets, not forget...The economy of china is the size of Califoria and we are still by far the biggest manufacturer, and more importantly innovator in the world.

mcfm85a - you should hook up with aboutready.

stealth1 - what, so we could cover pessimism both locally and globally (although mcfm85a is much more optimistic than I am)? If I were to turn my attentions globally, I think I would focus more on how much of the US debt is held by foreign entities, those who provide us with cheap electronics AND oil. For an economy the size of California, China seems to have quite an effect on the value of the dollar (luckily, right now they want it higher, rather than lower). The dollar falling, generally, is a bit more complicated than a reversion to mean.

I don't think it's a question of American or non-American power, I think it's a question of a global community of obscenely wealthy individuals and corporations. I too laughed at that little man, Ross Perot, but I could swear I hear that "giant sucking sound" everywhere I go, whether it be Europe, the US or Mexico.

aboutready - if you are using the issues in the above post to decide whether or not you should "pull the trigger" on a real estate purchase in Manhattan, then you will be here 10 years from now STILL analyzing. I dare not imagine what it would be like to buy a car,couch or candybar with you.

Actually, I spent about 3 hours researching cars, went to the dealer and bought a car in about 30 minutes (and three years later we love it, it has never been in the shop for repairs). The couch took 30 minutes flat. For my sins, I prefer red wine to candy, and I'm rather quick at the local wine store as well. I've bought two apartments in New York, and while I saw a number of units, it didn't take me long to find a place once I was ready.

I'm only using the issues in the above post vis-a-vis the New York real estate market to the extent that I think that they reflect the lack, generally, of our economic stability. You guys are always pointing to economic statistics that you claim show the strength of our real estate market (generally Wall Street bonuses and the dow, neither of which convince me). Sorry, stealth1, a certain amount of analysis is healthy, and in our current market, caution is probably wise.

Stealth1, I WILL buy, probably in about 2 to 2 and 1/2 years. And I think I'm going to have a great time. If not, we could always move to the Bay Area, where I should be able to pick up a great deal.

dmag2020 - what's great about Manhattan real estate is that there's plenty of 'pie' for everyone!

But the basic thing I've learned is that there are opportunities in ANY market to be exploited - admittedly, some pay out over a longer period of time - but the opportunities are there, even now. I personally no longer invest in studios or one bedroom units - I've sold all mine out as of about a year or so ago - and have been concentrating on two and three bedroom units exclusively.

And I have to agree with MMAfia on another unrelated point - although I haven't been buying on dips and then selling at peaks, gold has been very, very, very good to me over the past three years. I bought in big at around $400/oz back then, and have been continuing to buy regularly up to present. It's a total lock until $950/oz - 100%+ return in about three years!

pseudonym - what's not so great about Manhattan real estate is that soon there is going to be more than enough "pie" for everyone. Let them eat cake.

aboutready - a glut of inventory does not equal a dearth of opportunity. On the contrary, as far as I'm concerned, it makes already owning qualitatively superior properties in great locations all the more attractive in comparison, particularly in the long run to the savvy long term time horizon investor (read: NOT flipper!).

When the market corrects, it's a basic law that the first properties to get puked out will be the problematic "C" (and worse) properties that shouldn't have sold in the first place for the prices asked. After those suckers are cleared out and nobody's buying, then the okay-but-not-great "B" properties will be next to swamp the market. Sme will begin to sell, but most won't. At the market's absolute nadir, after all the other chips have fallen, THEN you'll see some really fabulous "A" level quality places being sold by those who just couldn't hold out for the eventual turn-around.

Granted, that's a very generalist overview, but the idea that I keep reading on these boards of "Oh, I'll just wait for the correction and in 2-3 years suddenly tons of amazing quality properties will flood the market at a fraction of their original sales price and I'll have my pick of the litter" won't be the way the Manhattan real estate market operates.

Even going down, it's still pretty damn efficient.

Wouldn't it be ironic if values continue to go up into spring.I mean all the negative news and negative bloggers and yet where's the crash? Where is the crash? If you have reading these boards for the past several years you get the same predictions for one reason or another about a crash. I mean those that have been predicting a crash since 2002 have been replaced with different screen names and the same rattling has been continuing for different reasons. Now the culprit du jour is no longer a cut in Wall Street bonuses but Wall street layoffs. This is where mostly everyone who worked on Wall Street must sell their apt and no one on Wall Street will be buying. The end result is of course a crash.

I've never said I want rock-bottom prices. Just not willing to pay 1.5m for an 1100 sf apartment (and that is NOT the problematic C property in this market.)

aboutready - sorry - my commentary was directed in general at numerous posts/posters that I've read on various streeteasy boards recently.

As for your mythical $1.5MM, 1100 s.f. apartment, it could honestly be a "C," "B," or "A," depending on location, light, views, layout, amenities, condition, finish, and many other factors. It might be a buy right now at $1,360 p.s.f. as you're describing it (though I would agree with you that paying $1,300+ p.s.f. for an apartment whose size means it's either a too-large one bedroom, or a too-small two bedroom would not be wise), and it might definitely not be a buy even if were well under $1,000 p.s.f. In my opinion, it's a ground war, case-by-case, property-by-property situation which is the argument I consistently try to make, but people only seem to feel comfortable stereotyping broad market sentinment and don't seem willing to invest the time looking deeper at a more individualized micro level.

If you're not willing to pay 1.5 mil for an apt that you like why don't you just try to negotiate a price you want to pay. You never know.

negotiate spunky?? what seller is going to negotiate in this market??...things are only going higher...no??

spunky, I really would like to be finished (at least for the next ten years), but a home is not just a place to live. It is an investment. I have no need to buy at the bottom of the market. The middle is just fine. As I say, time alone will tell, but I still don't think we're at the middle.

$250 billion loan crisis? They're even dropping the "sub" when they talk about the mortgage issues. I think rates will stay low to prevent a disaster of epic proportions, but even at the rates that people borrowed, they stretched. Real estate is an emotional arena, many people recently used too much emotion.

Pseudonym, right now I (for circumstantial reasons) do not want to commit more than a certain amount to getting in the door. There has been some very interesting movement in the co-op market, and if I were prepared to do so, I might be ready to test the resale market(probably February or so), there are always some people who truly NEED to sell, and will override their agent's desire to keep prices at a certain level. I am not saying that you are not, to some extent, right. I have been very bullish on Central Harlem/Manhattan Valley (although there the prices seem to be going right through the roof at a time that doesn't seem to warrant it). I still think, however, that as an investment, if you don't need to do it right now, waiting is a fine idea. In a few months, as the new developments roll out more units (I'm pretty sure they're going to have to pick up the release pace shortly, which should be interesting) I may very well change my tune to buy.
This hasn't been an easy market to judge over the last 4 years. Now I know why, but I'm still not sure what will be done to bail out the speculators, hedge funds and banks (perhaps one and the same?) so I'm sitting my little ignorant self on the sidelines until the market gives me a little bit more cause for optimism.

lol