Does anyone know what percentage of the building has sold?

Does anyone have any sales data on this building?

This is only anecdotal but I swung by their both at the condo expo yesterday (I'm an agent who sells downtown) and they were saying 45% sold.

I don't know what you mean by "sales data" -- I have an availability sheet, but of course your own agent should be able to pull that for you too.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

Thanks -- I was trying to get an idea of how much is sold. I was told they would start opening the building in September -- if true, then 45% sold doesn't sound like alot, does it? Wasn't Millennium sold out by the closing? Do you think they will lower the pricing at all on these?

ceo3141

It's generally more in the developers' interest to sell a building out slower than to lower prices -- some buildings that want to "wrap up" are offering incentives to buyers' brokers, but I haven't seen any meaningful price flexibility on the new dev. side just yet.

Part of that is because the new dev. customer is rather captive, since they tend not to switch out for other merchandise -- by the time someone looks at new construction, it is often new construction or nothing.

I always say that if real estate agents could predict markets we would be making millions on Wall Street, so take all my forecasts with a grain of salt, but I don't predict lower pricing anytime soon.

I am not saying there is no softness in this market, but I at least am seeing it more in co-ops and in resales.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

Thank you, front porch. That is interesting that the new developments are not showing flexibility, with some softening in the overall market. I am a renter who wants to buy in a new development, but just think the whole market is a little soft, so there is no danger in waiting; I would buy if the developments lowered their prices. There is a supply of brand new apts from the flippers -- 200 Chambers & Millennium seem to have alot of apts for sale that have "never been lived in" -- and those buildings have been open for a year. It will be interesting to see what happens when The River House opens in North Battery Park, and those apts hit the market -- what do you think?

Any new news on this building, is it selling or stagnated?

It is too far south in my opinion.

I am doing the same as ceo3141. What about the thought that the developers would rent the unit before lowering the price 10%. I have read of this happening.

If the developers lower the price, they undercut the flippers, so they presumably would have trouble selling the next development. It will be interesting to see what happens when the Riverhouse opens, as I said it seems there are already never-been-lived-in apts for sale at 200 Chambers and especially Millennium Towers.

Hello all. My wife and I are considering a 2 bedroom at the Visionaire. Are there special items we should be aware of (we didnt make our offer yet). Is there much flexibility on the price or closing costs? Any input would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!

Nomad, think about it carefully . . . I just visited the bldg. It is opening imminently, and they have sold 49% of the apts. They'll sell a few more, and then it is Thanksgiving . . . no one buys Thanksgiving - January. Next March, they'll have to decide whether to move the inventory. And no one from Lehman, or Merrill, or Citigroup is going to have a bonus to spend.

A 2 bedrm apt at Millennium Tower rents for $6k or under. These apts are a little nicer . . . but, in 4yrs, the Common Charges are going to be $2.75/sqft, so for a 1200sqft apt, $3300! If it rents for $7,000 (it could be lower, with all the inventory!), that leaves $3700 = $44,400/yr. If you do the investment arithmetic, that is muni tax-free interest on about $1.1M. So unless you're really convinced these are going up . . . lol, it is better to rent.

we bought a three bedroom at visionaire and couldn't be more excited. its about quality of life... if you are looking for a quick flip or short term investment then this may not be the right building for you.

how is the common charge 2.75 psf? are you sure?

ha! didn't see that it was in battery park.

"My wife and I are considering a 2 bedroom at the Visionaire. Are there special items we should be aware of (we didnt make our offer yet). "

Yes. You should flush your deposit down the toilet, plus an extra 10-15%. Why wait 2 yrs for the market to drop 35% or so; why not just lock in that loss today and get it over with it?? Flushing money down the toilet is a MUCH more efficient tactic than closing on a purchase in late 2008, although the net result is virtually identical.

admiral please go away

nomad,
I am just curious, why visionaire with high psf and ridiculous cc? Do you absolutely must live in Battery Park? I would just rent in BP considering high CC.

The ppsf at the Visionaire seemed quite reasonable given what seemed like a fairly high quality building, but it was hard to make sense of the total costs given the extremely high common charges + PILOT.

With the building only half sold and opening now, I don't know how the banks can give mortgages of 80% loan-to-value. The banks know the developer has to sell. My guess is the developer is going to wait until whoever is getting a bonus gets it in Mar09 (no one buys a home around Thanksgiving and Christmas anyway), and then decides whether to start cutting prices drastically.

Individuals can hang on & bleed slowly -- but the developers can't, they have loans to repay.

I am an approved lender at the Visionaire and hope to have letters out soon to contract holders. We are financing 90% up to $729,750, 80% up to 1.5M, and 75% up to 3M on 30 year fixed mortgages at very competitive rates. sunny_hong@countrywide.com

Beware of the PILOT tax. This is an uncontrolled tax BPC that can inflate at any rate they see fit. River House is not even close to where they want to be with their occupancies. There is soon to be a war between River House and Visionaire as for they are going for the exact same buyer. Offer at least 20% asking and ask for coverage of closing costs and transfer taxes. You will be surprised how desperate they are. Good Luck

ceo3141 and ba294,
Thanks for your insight. After going thur projected costs, we didnt feel comfortable with the PILOT tax and the dramatic future increases in CC. We are looking at other areas mainly FiDi but so much turmoil we are just sitting on the sidelines waiting for the dust to settle.

Nomad, no problem.

To anyone looking at these buildings, sit down and carefully calculate how much it costs to own versus rent. Right now, it is much cheaper to rent. (As more of these building finish, the rents will go down, too.)

You really have to believe the market is going to bounce a lot to buy right now. In the long run, NYC apts trade at a price that provides a competitive return (4-5%/yr) to an investor who buys and leases out. Doing that calculation values these apts at >20% below the offering prices.

ceo3141,

Have you done a CC/sq ft analysis of other newly constructed building in Manhattan after their tax abatement expires in 10 yrs? I seem to be getting ~$2/sq ft on the buildings I've visited. Am I totally off-base or are newly constructed buildings higher expense?? Thx!