History Hints a Recession Would Hit City Hard

Running around with your hair on fire in another thread Steve?
Is it hard to be afraid all the time?

Who's afraid?

I have no hair: shaved it off. Too gray.

stevejhx- don't you know that you can't post negative reports.

Well you can--but over and over and over gets tedious.

They're all different stories.

I already said that I don't believe we're in a recession - now it's time for someone else to opine.

Certain parts of the US are in a recession. Why are you acting as though recession is a blanket concept? You know it isn't. You're just being provocative.

"You're just being provocative."

Me?!

Re: negative reports. If they're out there, why not? I'd rather hear about them.

If someone has positive news to report, as spunky did in a response to urbandigs, by all means do. I'd like to read that, too.

Do you truly think they add tremendous value? Do they sway your investment strategies? Anything that guides my portfolio is NOT linked to msnbc or cnn.

When the market was booming I thought bullish articles were irrelevant, too. I wonder why Steve constantly links.

Tremendous value? I'm not sure. But I don't work in finance (not even close), and spend most of my time immersed in things that have nothing to do with it. Of course, I do have a serious interest in real estate, and find myself here often. If someone posts something they think is significant, negative or positive (and often followed by some opinions here to flesh it out), for me it's a heads up.

My opinion is that it is dangerous for you to be guided by casual talk on an anon. blog. Most of the great investors say only invest in what you know very well. For example, I prefer index funds to tracking the market and making micro moves on a daily/weekly basis. And I do work in finance. It would be ridiculous for me to try and even casually inform my portfolio off, say, SeekingAlpha blogs.

steve, I was watching CNBC a couple weeks ago and a Columbia professor said "severe recession" and a Wharton professor was on two days later and said "mild recession". For every negative article there is a positive one. eah is correct, this is all speculative crap aimed at selling ad space. Here is one with a positive spin from 10 days ago:

Europe, Japan also likely to escape severe damage to their economies

BUSINESS leaders from the G-8 countries meeting in Tokyo yesterday offered a reassuring assessment of the likely impact of the sub-prime crisis on the world’s major economies.

They argued that the US would suffer only a ‘mild recession’ in the first half of 2008 before returning to growth later in the year and that Europe and Japan were also likely to escape without severe damage to their economies.

The business leaders from the US, Canada, Japan, Italy, France, Britain, Germany, Russia and the European Union nevertheless acknowledged in a communique after their meeting that ‘the turmoil in international financial markets coupled with skyrocketing prices of crude oil and other commodities, as well as sudden and rapid movements in exchange rates entail downside risks’.

There will be a ‘mild and short recession’ in the US, predicted chairman of the US Business Roundtable Harold McGraw, who is also president and CEO of the McGraw-Hill companies.

The US housing recession is ‘finally coming to an end’, he said at a press briefing following the Tokyo meeting, which was designed to formulate strategy among G-8 business leaders in advance of this year’s G-8 summit.

Considerable fiscal stimulus is already being applied to the US economy, Mr McGraw noted, and the monetary stimulus provided by aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve should ‘kick in’ around the end of this year.

While US economic growth is likely to turn negative in the first two quarters of 2008, annualised growth rates in the second half should be strong enough to produce 1.1 per cent overall US growth for the year, he said.

Mr McGraw added that the G-8 group also expected growth of 1.7 per cent in Europe and 1.5 per cent in Japan for 2008, while robust growth in emerging economies should push global economic expansion this year up to 3.7 per cent overall.

But he also acknowledged the danger of a ‘double dip’ recession in the US if monetary stimulus fails to have the expected positive impact on consumption and investment.

A similarly optimistic message came from Jurgen Thumann, president of the German Federation of Industries, who argued that German and European business ’should be able to overcome’ the impact of financial market turmoil without great damage to profitability and employment.

‘We have not so far experienced any shortage of credits’ despite huge losses among European as well as US banks as a result of the US sub-prime mortgage crisis, he said.

The US economy is ‘diversified and resilient’ and many areas have not been negatively impacted, argued Paul Speranza, chairman of the US Chamber of Commerce.

Any US recession resulting from the sub-prime crisis ‘will not be long and it will not be deep’, insisted Mr Speranza who noted that he was speaking on behalf some ‘three million US businesses’.

The business leaders expressed optimism that industrial emission targets related to global warming, which will be a major subject at the G-8 summit which Japan is hosting in Hokkaido in July this year, will be achievable.

They also called on G-8 leaders to conclude an ‘ambitious Doha Round’ of international trade negotiations under the WTO in order to keep global growth on track.

Source : Business Times - 18 Apr 2008

Here's another silly man who has absolutely no idea what's he's talking about said last week.

"I think that we've got a lot of strength that's going to come out of the export sector, the technology sector. We've seen good earnings reports from some of them. They're thriving on this weak dollar. It's giving them a chance to sell goods all over the world. And I think that's going to probably pull us out."

- Robert Engle, Nobel Laureate Economist winner 2003 and New York University professor

eah, I see what you're saying, and do appreciate your advice. However, my current "investment strategy" is a pile of cash in savings accounts that will most likely be spent (at least a large part of it) on a home purchase some time in the next two years. I don't expect to be guided by what I read here, but I may add some of it to the larger pool of consideration. I do think it's better than just reading AM NY, Metro and the Village Voice on the subway (I can't deal with a broadsheet on the train). OK, it's not that bad, I do read some other news, but I think you get my point.

And if JuiceMan and spunky have something to add or refute, that's good, too.

When I've made a (hopefully sensible and educated) home purchase and it's time to consider investment options, I will certainly look beyond StreetEasy for information.
And yes, I know I should probably be researching other investments right now, but I'm a bit single-minded on real estate.

I have been saying that all of this takes time. This city is just starting to feel the crunch. Pay attention to public works projects and you will see many indicators of the storm brewing. From the Governor instituting a hiring freeze to the MTA cutting off funding for dozens of projects. The WTC site (modifications to cut costs), Brooklyn arena and Javits expansion. These are just a few. Building permits down almost 50%. This the beginning of the storm that has swept across the rest of the country. Now we will see just how strong NYC real estate really is. Job lose on wall street could hit over 100,000. The last thing I would ever do in this economy is buy a home. It's like the store employee telling you that if you come back tomorrow the suit you love will be 50% off and instead ignore him and buy it anyway. Just burn the money and get it over with.

I've said before, I don't think we're in a recession, I don't care what anybody else says.

Unless we find out in 3 months that we are.

I've also said before that I think housing in Manhattan is priced way outside its fundamental value. I don't care what anybody else says.

Unless they can prove to me that I'm wrong.

It is not clear that the nation is going into a recession by the economic definition (two negative quarters of GDP growth) as we are in the positive 0-1% range. Plus, there is significant economic stimulus in the pipeline.

However, if you adjust gdp growth for population growth, then GDP per capita is likely negative now. There is pain being felt on main street.

In addition, real estate is local. I would argue that wall street is in a recession now. This does not bode well for NYC prices.

Heaven help us all.