Definitely a bullish sign!

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/11/realestate/11deal1.html?ref=realestate

Steve, you've got to be kidding with this. According to the article, nearly all of the units cut were in the $10 million and up price range, and average and median prices rose last month. So a $15.4 million unit decreased its price and sold for $14.9 million, while the $1 million units are going up in price. This is your evidence of a big market downturn? You can't be serious.

Did you read the article?

"Among the most expensive properties — those listed for $10 million or more — there were fewer price changes, but price cuts outnumbered price increases by a ratio of 10 to 1."

Don't know where you got that figure, 'cause it ain't even in the article.

What is in the article is that median property prices rose again - meaning, ominously, that only the top-end is moving. Not good news for those of us who work for a living.

What about this part of the article? 17% increase on median comps? Must be a huge crash.

“Buyers are out there expecting to get good deals,” said Gregory J. Heym, the chief economist at Brown Harris Stevens and Halstead Property. “Some people who want to sell are more open to it.”

That isn’t evident from actual sales data from deeds and tax records filed with the city’s Finance Department. Preliminary data showed that prices rose last month, with the average sale price on a co-op or condo reaching $1.45 million, up 17 percent from a year earlier. The median price was $927,500, also up 17 percent.

It means just what I said, JuiceMan - median prices go up while inventories go up meaning that only the high-end is selling.

A 17% increase in median property prices in a year? That's highly sustainable over time, isn't it?

Steve - you need some help with reading comprehension. If the top end price changes were 10 to 1 down, and the average AND median prices were up, that implies that the overall market outside of the top end was up.
What is this with you and inventories? First, we established above that some of the inventory number is inflated due to technology changes at streeteasy. Second, inventory levels are still not as high as they were in 2006 and are not at a level that is causing any big price decreases. Could that change? Maybe, but you haven't shown me anything substantial to base a prediction on yet.

But you said the market was tanking six months ago? Also, it looks as if we would need a 17% decrease in median prices just to get to last years comps. So a 30% correction would actually be 13% correction on comps. hmmmmmmm. Steve, your "story" is getting weaker and the people on this board (as evidenced by many comments) are tired of your one sided malarkey.

It is interesting that we are almost midway through 2008 and the dialogue is not much different than it was 9 months ago.

Basically, you can take from the article that 85% of the units in Manhattan are stable or up, and that the biggest ratio of price cuts is in the $10 million and up range, and average and median prices are up. This is supposed to be supporting your views of a big market downturn? Steve wouldn't last too long in a courtroom.

Steve - you need some help with reading comprehension. If the top end price changes were 10 to 1 down, and the average AND median prices were up, that implies that the overall market outside of the top end was up.

What? I need help? You're comparing sales data to listing data. Completely unrelated.

LIC: "Steve - you need some help with reading comprehension. If the top end price changes were 10 to 1 down, and the average AND median prices were up, that implies that the overall market outside of the top end was up"

NO, it doesnt.

It just says that the mix of apartments being sold are heavily tilted towards more expensive apartments. Median price going up could have two causes - (a) prices of all apartments are going up, or (b) higher proportion of expensive/large/prestigious apartments are being sold in relation to the ordinary ones

Given that inventory is bloating right now, it implies (b) is true.

So, though the price of expensive properties (over 10 M) is going down, since the mix of apartments is heavily skewed towards the more epxensive apts, it is driving median prices up.

cartman, the % of $10M+ apartments sold to under $10M sold was 2.1% for the past year, 2.8% for past six months, 2.4% past 60 days, and 2.8% for the last 30 days. Not enough of a swing to change the median price as drastically as you are stating.

will, " we are almost midway through 2008 and the dialogue is not much different than it was 9 months ago". YOU SAID IT ALL.
steves etc. should start screeching about 2009, 2010 and beyond.
STEVEJHX and co. ARE IRRELEVANT.

First, JuiceMan, yes those figures are enough to skew the median higher - how many transactions were there in that period, and what was the mean and standard deviation to take a more comprehensive look at the market. Then, if sales in that range were only 0.4% in the past, 2.8% would represent a sevenfold increase in the number of properties at that price threshold.

And, in fact, Miller Samuel said as much in its last report: the median was skewed upward because of sales at 101 CPW or whatever the building is, all of which closed at the same time.

So much for that mathematical theory, Mr. CAPM.

Indeed, you need to look at the number of properties sold along a curve - $5 million properties will also skew the number upward.

And yes, if inventories are going up at the same time as median prices are going up, it would imply a change in the mix of properties, or the time-lag effect between contract and close. Otherwise, as inventory rises, prices tend to fall.

The sales ratio for the entire year is 2.1% (not 0.4%) , which (if you actually do the math rather than pulling poo poo out of your arse) equates to 8-10 more $10M+ properties in the last 30 days. 8-10 properties out of 581 will significantly move the median? Sorry Mr. Econ, no sale. You may want to look up median in your old Columbia text books.

From the article:

"In the last 30 days, prices were cut on about 17 percent of the co-ops and condos in Manhattan, according to an analysis of listings on Streeteasy.com, a Web site that compiles information from most brokerage firms. Prices rose on around 2 percent of all Streeteasy listings. Among the most expensive properties — those listed for $10 million or more — there were fewer price changes, but price cuts outnumbered price increases by a ratio of 10 to 1."

So, 17% of all apartments saw price cuts, 2% of all apartments saw price increases. That means overall, price cuts outnumbered price increases 8.5 to 1. On $10 mil plus apartments, price cuts outnumbered price increases 10 to 1. Assuming 25% of the market is comprised of $10 mil plus apartments, those statistics would indicate that on apartments under $10 mil, price cuts outnumbered price increases 8 to 1. The lower the percentage of $10 mil plus apartments, the closer the ratio of price cuts to price increases on other apartments would be to 8.5 to 1. Arguing about average and median prices considering these statistics, the decline in sales volume and the increase in inventory is akin to arguing about the precise location of the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Stable and increased prices outnumbered price decreases 8.5 to 1, with average and median prices rising. Sounds just like the Titanic.

1. Does anyone know the standard rate of listing price increases and decreases? You can't draw any conclusions from this article without that info.

2. Even if you have that info this data is pretty unreliable. It was obtained by searching the Streeteasy listings. It is common knowledge that brokers change listing prices to keep their listings fresh on these online databases.

"Stable and increased prices outnumbered price decreases 8.5 to 1, with average and median prices rising. Sounds just like the Titanic."

If prices were cut on 17% on all apartments, that means that they were not cut on 83% of all apartments which means that stable and increased prices outnumbered price decreases by less than 5 to 1 which means that you need help with math. And I highly doubt that the stated percentage of offering prices that remained stable over a 30 day period is a particularly meaningful indicator.

And Steve drops off the map on this one..lol