I found this listed on this site. It the Gantry Development located in LIC. It was listed in the recorded sales column. Is this showing that these 2 units resold at a lose listed below? I'm actually unsure of the data. Any help. Thanks
dco- I saw that 5SL, Powerhouse and Foundry in LIC all just posted a bunch of very recent sales at pretty good prices - $700-$850psf range. That must be blowing your mind. The prices you just listed are the $680-$775psf range, and Gantry is one of the lower profile buildings in the area. I'll wait for you to say you were wrong about the area any day now . . .
LICComent- I was just asking a question that I did not know the answer to that's all. I'm glad to see that you have declared the housing crisis is over for LIC. That's great news. Since you mentioned those developments can you please tell me how many each have sold in the last 2 months. I have not been following them and would like to admit I'm wrong ASAP. So just give me those numbers and evaluate the data.
Last I checked about a month ago the Powerhouse and Foundry were less than 50% sold. I think the Powerhouse has over 170 units and the Foundry has over 50 units. Can you tell me what the % sold is now that they have started to sell.
5sl- Started their sales almost 2 years before the other 2. So I would imagine that most of those units were sold during the bubble phase. However with that said, can you tell me how many units were sold at 5SL in the last 2 months as well. Just provide me and others on this site with the data.
Is the Powerhouse at 60%, 70% or 80%.... sold?
Is the Foundry at 60%, 70% or 80%........sold?
I hope things have improved but I'll wait for the data to draw that conclusion.
LICComment, I saw you post this on another thread and was curious after reading all the reports about the slowdown in outer-borough condo sales. 5SL only has two reported closings, but 98 previous listings, and almost all have the same date, 4/23/08. There are no listings in the “In Contract” section, but of the first 10 in the “Previous” column, all were listed as “Temporarily Off Market” and had “Contract Signed” in the blurb, but 4 had contract signed dates in 07, 4 had no contract signed dates and 2 had contract signed dates in 08. Of the first 10 Powerhouse “In Contract” listings, 5 were signed in 07, 4 in 08, and 1 had no date. I looked at the first 5 of the 25 “Previous Listings” and all are “Temporarily Off Market” with 1 claiming to be in contract. At The Foundry, 8 of the first 10 “In Contract” listings were signed in 08. How do we know what ppsf was negotiated if there are only 2 closings in all three buildings (which weren’t linked to listings)?
Tenemental- 5sl just started their closing on lower floors. Over 90% of the sold units at this development were sold in 07'. It actually may be even higher. The same goes for the other 2. The Powerhouse and the Foundry are not even 50% sold and over 90% of those units were sold in 70' as well. 2008 has been a disaster. LICComent- is trying to say that the sale of 1 or 2 units for 08' proves that LIC is worth the price and the units are selling like "hotcakes". Now much like Manhattan, LIC is some magical place where price's only increase.
Not to mention that the inventory is about skyrocket in the area. The Powerhouse and Foundry have not even released 50% of the units to the market. Add EC3 with over 180 and not to mention Hunters Point has 2 developments that have not released and several others. The inventory is going to jump in the next 6 months.
LICcomment- This was posted on a queenswest site. This is from a resident in the area. FYI.
Hey guy.I am so upset that we don't have any drug store in our area.Everytime when i need to buy some stuff(shampoons,cotton pads or hair spray etc.) unfortunately I have to go to Manhattan .We need some duane read,RIDE AID or something like that
When it will change?What is your opinion about it?
dco, how do you feel about this article which was published just this week:
Sales have started on what will be Long Island City's tallest residential condominium, a 25-story tower slated to open in winter 2009.
The Star Tower, planned by Manhattan-based Roe Development Corp., will contain 180 one- and two-bedroom apartments. They range from about $425,000 to more than $1 million and from 617 to 1,213 square feet. . . .
Roe's vice president, Robert Roe, said that despite the nationwide housing slump, the market remains strong in pockets of Queens, including Long Island City. About 30 units in the $100 million-plus development sold in the past week and a half, he said.
"The market is always a factor, and you have to look at supply and demand, but certainly areas in Manhattan and outside are still very strong," he said. "We are seeing new (development) deals even now in Long Island City."
He said he expected prices to grow from about $725 per foot to as high as $1,200 before the building opens.
dco - Duane Reade is opening in one of the East Coast buildings. It will be open in about a month. You know this. Therefore, you continue to post misleading information about LIC for some strange reason.
dco, you continue to show a lack of knowledge regarding how new developments are sold. New condo buildings release units a few at a time rather than put all the units up for sale all at once. This allows the developer to adjust pricing over time and maximize sales. You seem to think that if a new development doesn't sell all its units in three months, it is a failure. The goal is to maximize returns on investment, not sell as fast as possible.
LICComment- I know how and why they release units. But tell me how does that not matter to the future inventory numbers. The Powerhouse as an example has sold or has in contract 75 units. The building has 177 units. So are you telling me that that they are all these people waiting for the 102 units to hit the market. They can't move the ones they are offering. The same goes for the Foundry.
You also still have not answered my questions above. The fact is that you can't because your answer would concede that I'm right.
That new building is located in the worst area of LIC. I wish that developer luck with that project. They sold 30 units and this is the first we have heard about the project? Give me a break. Lets see this in writing. Where are they listed on this site? Perhaps you should buy 2 and flip them. They sould be worth 30% more next week.
streeteasy picks up the last listed price before the unit goes into contract whereas powerhouse has been 5-10% negotiable for the past 6 months. the contract per/sqft numbers are irrelevant.. youll see the true discounts when we see the filed info, which wont be until july at the earliest.
star will be at the foot of the 59th st bridge, next to elevated train tracks, 2 blocks from the rail yards and 6 blocks from the largest housing project in america. it will be a cold day in hell when it gets to 1200s/ft. then again, this is coming from the developer.
cb81- At least some knows the area. I know the area very well and it is located in the worst part of LIC. cb81 is 100% correct about one of the biggest and most violent project in the city is located just blocks away. And for the record it's not going anywhere. You have got to be out of your mind to buy in this area. If you are married there is no way you would let your wife walk home after dark in that area. It's filled with street walkers and their pimps all around the strip clubs. No thank you. I would guarantee you that prostitutes would be turning tricks in 90% of those buildings. Stay away from the Quenns Plaza Area its a dump.
More lies from dco - that's par for the course with him. As for inventory, I'll try to explain this as simply as possible. Inventory would be an issue in an already established area. This part of LIC was basically non-residential a few years ago. For all intents and purposes, all the new buildings going up are creating a new neighborhood. As more buildings go up and more people move in, the neighborhood grows, transforms, brings in more amenities and becomes even more desirable. Try to follow all this dco.
Queens Plaza is completely transforming. People who buy now will get a major return on investment once all the new buildings and the city streetscape improvements are complete. In 2 years you won't recognize it from one year ago.
dco - why don't go take pictures of all these streetwalkers and pimps? You can't, and I'll tell you why - they're not there! Maybe 15 years ago, but you obviously haven't been around there lately. Hey, 30 sales in less than 2 weeks sure does say a lot more than dco's ridiculous lies.
Oh and I guess all those people buying multi-million dollar apartments in the Lower East Side and Upper West Side don't realize that they live near projects too.
LICComment- Your argument is ridiculas. So inventory doesn't apply to LIC. People are lined up from Flushing to Queens Plaza just waiting to buy because there is no inventory in LIC. You have to explain this a little more. Now LIC is part of some "black hole" where inventory doesn't factor in to the market. Perhaps the worlds best economists can explain why supply and demand doesn't apply to LIC.
When are you going to answer the questions about the recent sales? I guess you can't because you just made it up. And you have the nerve to call me a liar. Oh and thanks for explaining how a new neighborhood develops. The only reason that these projects are going forward are that the abatement's are going to expire.
How many strip clubs and X-rated video stores are there in Queens Plaza?
Answer this simple question. If there is not a glut of inventory and this great demand to live in LIC how come buildings like The Powerhouse and the Foundry haven't sold even 50% of their project. How many of these units sold in 2008? Just answer this and prove you know something.
dco: When I looked at 5SL in the beginning of the year, their inventory listed 23 available units. As of now, it took them 5 months to sell the two cheapest studios. This was with a round of price cuts and then sponsor offering to cover $20,000 of closing costs.
The two bedrooms in this development hardly moved at all.
NYbylr- Thanks for the info. This is my point. This was an area that got caught up in all of the bubble hype. I can't believe people actually paid over $600 sq foot. The best area is the water front by far. With or without a view. Sales have come to a virtual halt. Forget about buying, no one is even looking. EC3 is going to open soon and it will add to the inventory. Yes units will sell in this building. Perhaps 20-40 in the first month and then that will be the end of the interest. The demand is no longer in the market. People don't know if they will even have a job next week. I can't imagine going to closing on a unit that I bought last year at the height of the market. Your neighbor is going to have paid $200,000 less then you did. A 20% decline on a 1M unit is $200,000. I would buy a parking spot in one of these buildings before I would buy one of the units at these price's.
Anyone catch the Robert Toll article linked in Curbed, where he discussed how bad Toll Bros earnings are and said "sales in Brooklyn have faded"? I would think he'd mention his LIC development if he had something positive to say to offset all the bad news.
dco - Just looking at the information on streeteasy, Powerhouse and Foundry have sold 33 units in 2008 alone! It looks like the last update was as of April, so that is 33 sales in only two buildings during the worst real estate downturn we have seen in decades. Add in all the sales from the Hunters Point condos, Star condo, 10-63, Crescent, etc. and that number multiplies by who knows how much. Do you actually enjoy getting clobbered intellectually on this board as often as you do?
LICComment- You are a joke and avoid the question at all cost. Give me the % that these developments have sold to date. Also give the sale by month for 2008. The fact is that many of these units were sold in 2007 and recorded in 2008. If you don't understand this then there is no hope for you. So again answer the question.
How are you tracking the progress of Hunters Point condos they don't have any information about sales on this site. I guess you except the word of the developer that they sold 30 units in a week. While he's at it perhaps he can through in the 59th street bridge to close the next deal. Give me a break.
When is the Powerhouse going to be done? This project is so far behind schedule that it looks like it will be another 2 years. I suspect financing trouble. Just an educated opinion. At this rate the developer will have no choice by to rent out the remaining units. This will mean they would control the condo board. And that's not good for the new owners. Nothing like buying an overpriced unit and have you neighbors rent with no vested interest in the building. It must be a great feeling to know that you could of rented the same place for half the price and not be tied up in a "potential investment".
Some people can't see the forest through the trees.
I agree with the queens plaza area, dco, I would not even think of living there for the next 15 years. I do; however, agree with LICComment, the area is in a major state of transition. It was just announced that the municipal parking garage is finally coming down and more high-en commercial/office buildings will be going in. The bottom line with Queens Plaza/59th st bridge/ct square is that it has the potential (and I believe that it will) grow into a booming business district. Now, just as I would not want to live in Manhattan's financial district, I will would not want to live there.
Now, to set the record straight on the waterfront area:
1) Was just out in LIC for brunch yesterday; the supermarket already has shelves inside. Swing by and take a look if you like, it is looking good and almost done. Duane Reade - look inside too - workers in there every day.
2) Powerhouse and Foundry just started selling in October and November. So, to be nearing 50% sold within 6 to 7 months of opening is not bad considering these buildings are not even close to closing yet.
3) as LIC states, almost -- if not more than -- 50% of the powerhouse units have sold in 2008 (granted, they have become more flexible with prices). Just randomly clicking I got 3 that sold in April.
4) 10-63 just went 85% sold and the last unit went fo around $800psf.
5) Granted that things are not selling as quickly as last summer ... or the summer before, most of the buildings are still selling at a heathy pace - the only two that I can't speak for, because they are not publicly listing are Hunters View and One Hunters Point (if anyone knows how those are coming along, please let me know.
DCO, I have never disagreed with your views on the overall state of the market. For anyone to deny that this is not a great market is just naive; however, I do have to begin to agree with LICComment (although I do feel that he is overly protective of the LIC market) that you for some reason like to single out LIC.
I respect you opinion DCO - and anyone who reads this board knows what your opinion is by now. But in my opinion - you are crazy to think that prices in LIC will come down to the $400 - $500psf range. 5SL is trying to command $950 - $1,000 psf, that was their latest round of price releases and they are not getting it (they did, however, break the record for actually getting $1,000psf for one of their units). So, I can easily see 5 SL continuing to get $800 + PSF, since that is what most of the listings that went to contract entered contract for - does that mean that people who bought at $800psf will lose value on their apartment? no! it means that they paid fair value and that the latest round of releases was at the peak ...
are many units in LIC still selling below the $800 psf mark? - yes, just look at listings in contract this year and for the past 2 months.
If you are sitting aruond and waiting for prices to come to the $400psf mark, then you will end up living in the Pennsylvania. Prices above the $700psf mark are here to stay .. as long as you bought at under 750psf, then you made a sound investment if you plan to live in your apartment and not flip it.
DCO, your advice seems to be directed at people who are interested in making an investment, not people who are actually looking to buy a home. I don't disagree with the investment aspect; if you are looking to make and investment in this market (anywhere in this cuontry) then you are most likely making a very bad choice.
If you are looking for a good place to live in NYC where prices are reasonable relative to a central location, then I would strongly recommend moving looking at LIC.
DCO, it is clear from your older posts that at one point you considered looking at LIC. Clearly you are waiting for prices to come down. I hope, for your sake, that you find a good deal if that is what you are looking for; hoever, if you think that by posting messages on this board all day will convince people to flee the area and abandon their contracts so that you can get your $400 - $500psf then you are wasting your breath.
So, why don't you stop aggravating all of the people that have an interest in the area - in the meantime, you can sit back and wait for prices to drop (if that's ehat you think is going to happen)
ohhhh, and to try and stay on the topic of your thread.
The gantry prices are (of course) vs. listign prices, not original sale prices.
Now, to say that this is a "comp" is funny. This is a non-doorman building with few ameneties. You point out exactly what LICComment has been trying to prove. This building is not a comp and units moved at 700+ psf.
The developers of Hunters Point Condos have been quoted in publications recently that both buildings are more than 50% sold, with increasing prices, and that sales have gone very well in 2008.
I'm not trying to imply that the market is booming. LIC has slowed from its rapid sales pace of a year ago. But sales in LIC are still happening, prices are holding steady at their highs, and dco is spreading a lot of false information.
Lobo - thanks for a very reasonable response. I agree that the Queens Plaza area is the least desirable in the newly developing LIC areas right now, but I don't think it will take 15 years to dramatically change. It is relatively small geographically. The new buildings going up are high-end (Crescent Club, View59, Star),and the streetscape changes have been funded and will start soon. Once significant numbers of new residents move in, I think that location will change pretty quickly. Once the new buildings started going up in the Lower East Side and East Village, it didn't take long for those areas to clean up.
And dco, let's see if I can break down an economics lesson for you so you can understand. When analyzing a supply-demand curve, you may have movements up or down the curve, or you may have a shift of the entire curve up or down. This is basic economics 101. What you are seeing in LIC is a shift of the entire curve upwards. Movements may still occur up and down the curve, but overall prices will be higher even with higher supply because the transformation of the neighborhood will continue to shift the the entire curve upward. You can check any basic economics textbook for more information on demand curve shifts.
lobo an lic- I don't agree with your assessments of the area. The price's are to high for the area. You can rent similar units for much less then the cost of buying. LICComment I find it comical that you are quoting the developers as to the progress of their projects. Why haven't they released the stats at Hunters Point Condos. How do you really know what the truth is? Perhaps they are adding up 25% of one building and 25% of the other? I don't know and neither do you.
And yes LICComment you have said that LIC is not having trouble selling. When in fact it is and that's my point. You guys should re-read my previous posts as to why new construction CANNOT LOWER PRICE'S until they close the pending contracts. It would put the whole project in jeopardy.
On another note I want to be clear I feel the whole market is overpriced. So don't take it personal about LIC being overpriced.
LICComment: "Once the new buildings started going up in the Lower East Side and East Village, it didn't take long for those areas to clean up."
By "clean up" I assume you mean reduce crime/become safer. As a long time East Villager I can tell you that new development had absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with it. Simply put, there's almost no new development here, and the area was dramatically changed before whatever is here arrived. The LES has a little more new development, but the vast majority of apartments are at the very least decades old (Co-op Village) and most are pre-war.
In the late-90's there was a concentrated effort to drive out drug dealers. I saw the impact literally on my doorstep. Any neighborhood that requires the same kind of focus today is going to have a much harder time now that the city and state budgets are in terrible shape.
DCO, I think that the reason people "think" that you single out LIC is becasue you do. Nearly every thread that you start is about LIC.
To your point about renting: Rents in LIC are actually holding up better than many parts of manhattan. In fact, rents just fell slightly in Manhattan while the average sale price crept up once again - read the latest reports on The Real Deal. That would technically make Manhattan more overpriced than LIC.
I have read your posts about new buildings lowering prices and I have responded many times. I would agree with you, but the difference (as i have stated many times) is that the current release prices are still well above the $psf amount that almost all of the contracts entered at. So, if people went to contract at $680 - $750psf and they are now releasing units at over $800psf then that gives plenty of room for sponsors to reduce prices without spooking people that have gone to contract. In fact, that's exactly what they are doing at the Powerhouse and that is why since they began to get flexible with prices units have started to sell again. Like I said, I think that LICComment is a bit overportective but he/she has provided you with concrete information that sales have ticked back up at The Powerhouse and other buildings in LIC.
Back to my last question. This thread is about The Gantry. It is not a "comp" and is selling at the same $psf that you claim the other buildings should not be getting, which just further proves the point that prices will not drop by $300 - $400psf as you claim.
I agree that this is not a great market -- overall -- but I do not think that the NY market is going to come crashing down. I agree that it has hit its peak for the next many years and that it may have some room to come down (certainly not double digits). We can debate that all day, and I realize that it is my opinion but then start a thread about that - or join one of the hundreds out there already. But, as long as you continue to start threads specific to LIC, people will continue to think that you have something against the area and respond to you the way that they have been.
I happen to like the LIC area very much and I don't even live there. So, I can understand how people get frustrated by the fact that you keep singling out LIC when you claim that you are really debating the overall state of the housing market.
Or are you?
lobo- We'll agree to disagree. Ok from now on I'll wait for someone else to start a LIC topic. I agree that I have probably made my point and some people don't want to hear that they made a mistake. No problem. I'll continue to monitor the market and keep my research and analysis to myself. Lets see where the market is at the end of the year. However I won't hold my breath in hopes that people will be adult enough to admit they were wrong. I myself will be the first to admit that my analysis was wrong, this you can count on. Lets just see how well these developments do the rest of the year. Until then you have my promise that I will not start any more LIC debates.
DCO - I wil certainly admit that I am wrong if/when the time comes.
Just to be clear, I am stating that if there is a fall, it will be no worse in LIC than the rest of the city. I have also said that it will not be a drastic fall (no more than 5 - 10%).
We'll regroup on this at the end of the year. I nthe meantime, my only point was that I didn't think that it was fair for you to single out the LIC market.
I found this listed on this site. It the Gantry Development located in LIC. It was listed in the recorded sales column. Is this showing that these 2 units resold at a lose listed below? I'm actually unsure of the data. Any help. Thanks
02/23/2007 #5C $865,000 -1.1% $875,000 ↓ 2 beds 2 baths 1,268 ft²
02/20/2007 #5H $1,175,000 -9.6% $1,300,000 3 beds 2 baths 1,515 ft²
Actually I think that was the asking price and then what it sold for.
dco- I saw that 5SL, Powerhouse and Foundry in LIC all just posted a bunch of very recent sales at pretty good prices - $700-$850psf range. That must be blowing your mind. The prices you just listed are the $680-$775psf range, and Gantry is one of the lower profile buildings in the area. I'll wait for you to say you were wrong about the area any day now . . .
LICComent- I was just asking a question that I did not know the answer to that's all. I'm glad to see that you have declared the housing crisis is over for LIC. That's great news. Since you mentioned those developments can you please tell me how many each have sold in the last 2 months. I have not been following them and would like to admit I'm wrong ASAP. So just give me those numbers and evaluate the data.
Last I checked about a month ago the Powerhouse and Foundry were less than 50% sold. I think the Powerhouse has over 170 units and the Foundry has over 50 units. Can you tell me what the % sold is now that they have started to sell.
5sl- Started their sales almost 2 years before the other 2. So I would imagine that most of those units were sold during the bubble phase. However with that said, can you tell me how many units were sold at 5SL in the last 2 months as well. Just provide me and others on this site with the data.
Is the Powerhouse at 60%, 70% or 80%.... sold?
Is the Foundry at 60%, 70% or 80%........sold?
I hope things have improved but I'll wait for the data to draw that conclusion.
LICComment, I saw you post this on another thread and was curious after reading all the reports about the slowdown in outer-borough condo sales. 5SL only has two reported closings, but 98 previous listings, and almost all have the same date, 4/23/08. There are no listings in the “In Contract” section, but of the first 10 in the “Previous” column, all were listed as “Temporarily Off Market” and had “Contract Signed” in the blurb, but 4 had contract signed dates in 07, 4 had no contract signed dates and 2 had contract signed dates in 08. Of the first 10 Powerhouse “In Contract” listings, 5 were signed in 07, 4 in 08, and 1 had no date. I looked at the first 5 of the 25 “Previous Listings” and all are “Temporarily Off Market” with 1 claiming to be in contract. At The Foundry, 8 of the first 10 “In Contract” listings were signed in 08. How do we know what ppsf was negotiated if there are only 2 closings in all three buildings (which weren’t linked to listings)?
Tenemental- 5sl just started their closing on lower floors. Over 90% of the sold units at this development were sold in 07'. It actually may be even higher. The same goes for the other 2. The Powerhouse and the Foundry are not even 50% sold and over 90% of those units were sold in 70' as well. 2008 has been a disaster. LICComent- is trying to say that the sale of 1 or 2 units for 08' proves that LIC is worth the price and the units are selling like "hotcakes". Now much like Manhattan, LIC is some magical place where price's only increase.
Not to mention that the inventory is about skyrocket in the area. The Powerhouse and Foundry have not even released 50% of the units to the market. Add EC3 with over 180 and not to mention Hunters Point has 2 developments that have not released and several others. The inventory is going to jump in the next 6 months.
LICcomment- This was posted on a queenswest site. This is from a resident in the area. FYI.
Hey guy.I am so upset that we don't have any drug store in our area.Everytime when i need to buy some stuff(shampoons,cotton pads or hair spray etc.) unfortunately I have to go to Manhattan .We need some duane read,RIDE AID or something like that
When it will change?What is your opinion about it?
dco, how do you feel about this article which was published just this week:
Sales have started on what will be Long Island City's tallest residential condominium, a 25-story tower slated to open in winter 2009.
The Star Tower, planned by Manhattan-based Roe Development Corp., will contain 180 one- and two-bedroom apartments. They range from about $425,000 to more than $1 million and from 617 to 1,213 square feet. . . .
Roe's vice president, Robert Roe, said that despite the nationwide housing slump, the market remains strong in pockets of Queens, including Long Island City. About 30 units in the $100 million-plus development sold in the past week and a half, he said.
"The market is always a factor, and you have to look at supply and demand, but certainly areas in Manhattan and outside are still very strong," he said. "We are seeing new (development) deals even now in Long Island City."
He said he expected prices to grow from about $725 per foot to as high as $1,200 before the building opens.
dco - Duane Reade is opening in one of the East Coast buildings. It will be open in about a month. You know this. Therefore, you continue to post misleading information about LIC for some strange reason.
dco, you continue to show a lack of knowledge regarding how new developments are sold. New condo buildings release units a few at a time rather than put all the units up for sale all at once. This allows the developer to adjust pricing over time and maximize sales. You seem to think that if a new development doesn't sell all its units in three months, it is a failure. The goal is to maximize returns on investment, not sell as fast as possible.
Also, LIC has a pharmacy on Vernon and 48th that has been there for years.
LICComment- I know how and why they release units. But tell me how does that not matter to the future inventory numbers. The Powerhouse as an example has sold or has in contract 75 units. The building has 177 units. So are you telling me that that they are all these people waiting for the 102 units to hit the market. They can't move the ones they are offering. The same goes for the Foundry.
You also still have not answered my questions above. The fact is that you can't because your answer would concede that I'm right.
That new building is located in the worst area of LIC. I wish that developer luck with that project. They sold 30 units and this is the first we have heard about the project? Give me a break. Lets see this in writing. Where are they listed on this site? Perhaps you should buy 2 and flip them. They sould be worth 30% more next week.
streeteasy picks up the last listed price before the unit goes into contract whereas powerhouse has been 5-10% negotiable for the past 6 months. the contract per/sqft numbers are irrelevant.. youll see the true discounts when we see the filed info, which wont be until july at the earliest.
star will be at the foot of the 59th st bridge, next to elevated train tracks, 2 blocks from the rail yards and 6 blocks from the largest housing project in america. it will be a cold day in hell when it gets to 1200s/ft. then again, this is coming from the developer.
cb81- At least some knows the area. I know the area very well and it is located in the worst part of LIC. cb81 is 100% correct about one of the biggest and most violent project in the city is located just blocks away. And for the record it's not going anywhere. You have got to be out of your mind to buy in this area. If you are married there is no way you would let your wife walk home after dark in that area. It's filled with street walkers and their pimps all around the strip clubs. No thank you. I would guarantee you that prostitutes would be turning tricks in 90% of those buildings. Stay away from the Quenns Plaza Area its a dump.
On another note more inventory and less qualified buyers. HUMMMMMMMMMMMMM. How's that going to work out.
More lies from dco - that's par for the course with him. As for inventory, I'll try to explain this as simply as possible. Inventory would be an issue in an already established area. This part of LIC was basically non-residential a few years ago. For all intents and purposes, all the new buildings going up are creating a new neighborhood. As more buildings go up and more people move in, the neighborhood grows, transforms, brings in more amenities and becomes even more desirable. Try to follow all this dco.
Queens Plaza is completely transforming. People who buy now will get a major return on investment once all the new buildings and the city streetscape improvements are complete. In 2 years you won't recognize it from one year ago.
dco - why don't go take pictures of all these streetwalkers and pimps? You can't, and I'll tell you why - they're not there! Maybe 15 years ago, but you obviously haven't been around there lately. Hey, 30 sales in less than 2 weeks sure does say a lot more than dco's ridiculous lies.
Oh and I guess all those people buying multi-million dollar apartments in the Lower East Side and Upper West Side don't realize that they live near projects too.
LICComment- Your argument is ridiculas. So inventory doesn't apply to LIC. People are lined up from Flushing to Queens Plaza just waiting to buy because there is no inventory in LIC. You have to explain this a little more. Now LIC is part of some "black hole" where inventory doesn't factor in to the market. Perhaps the worlds best economists can explain why supply and demand doesn't apply to LIC.
When are you going to answer the questions about the recent sales? I guess you can't because you just made it up. And you have the nerve to call me a liar. Oh and thanks for explaining how a new neighborhood develops. The only reason that these projects are going forward are that the abatement's are going to expire.
How many strip clubs and X-rated video stores are there in Queens Plaza?
Answer this simple question. If there is not a glut of inventory and this great demand to live in LIC how come buildings like The Powerhouse and the Foundry haven't sold even 50% of their project. How many of these units sold in 2008? Just answer this and prove you know something.
dco: When I looked at 5SL in the beginning of the year, their inventory listed 23 available units. As of now, it took them 5 months to sell the two cheapest studios. This was with a round of price cuts and then sponsor offering to cover $20,000 of closing costs.
The two bedrooms in this development hardly moved at all.
NYbylr- Thanks for the info. This is my point. This was an area that got caught up in all of the bubble hype. I can't believe people actually paid over $600 sq foot. The best area is the water front by far. With or without a view. Sales have come to a virtual halt. Forget about buying, no one is even looking. EC3 is going to open soon and it will add to the inventory. Yes units will sell in this building. Perhaps 20-40 in the first month and then that will be the end of the interest. The demand is no longer in the market. People don't know if they will even have a job next week. I can't imagine going to closing on a unit that I bought last year at the height of the market. Your neighbor is going to have paid $200,000 less then you did. A 20% decline on a 1M unit is $200,000. I would buy a parking spot in one of these buildings before I would buy one of the units at these price's.
Anyone catch the Robert Toll article linked in Curbed, where he discussed how bad Toll Bros earnings are and said "sales in Brooklyn have faded"? I would think he'd mention his LIC development if he had something positive to say to offset all the bad news.
dco - Just looking at the information on streeteasy, Powerhouse and Foundry have sold 33 units in 2008 alone! It looks like the last update was as of April, so that is 33 sales in only two buildings during the worst real estate downturn we have seen in decades. Add in all the sales from the Hunters Point condos, Star condo, 10-63, Crescent, etc. and that number multiplies by who knows how much. Do you actually enjoy getting clobbered intellectually on this board as often as you do?
LICComment- You are a joke and avoid the question at all cost. Give me the % that these developments have sold to date. Also give the sale by month for 2008. The fact is that many of these units were sold in 2007 and recorded in 2008. If you don't understand this then there is no hope for you. So again answer the question.
How are you tracking the progress of Hunters Point condos they don't have any information about sales on this site. I guess you except the word of the developer that they sold 30 units in a week. While he's at it perhaps he can through in the 59th street bridge to close the next deal. Give me a break.
When is the Powerhouse going to be done? This project is so far behind schedule that it looks like it will be another 2 years. I suspect financing trouble. Just an educated opinion. At this rate the developer will have no choice by to rent out the remaining units. This will mean they would control the condo board. And that's not good for the new owners. Nothing like buying an overpriced unit and have you neighbors rent with no vested interest in the building. It must be a great feeling to know that you could of rented the same place for half the price and not be tied up in a "potential investment".
Some people can't see the forest through the trees.
Just to chime in:
I agree with the queens plaza area, dco, I would not even think of living there for the next 15 years. I do; however, agree with LICComment, the area is in a major state of transition. It was just announced that the municipal parking garage is finally coming down and more high-en commercial/office buildings will be going in. The bottom line with Queens Plaza/59th st bridge/ct square is that it has the potential (and I believe that it will) grow into a booming business district. Now, just as I would not want to live in Manhattan's financial district, I will would not want to live there.
Now, to set the record straight on the waterfront area:
1) Was just out in LIC for brunch yesterday; the supermarket already has shelves inside. Swing by and take a look if you like, it is looking good and almost done. Duane Reade - look inside too - workers in there every day.
2) Powerhouse and Foundry just started selling in October and November. So, to be nearing 50% sold within 6 to 7 months of opening is not bad considering these buildings are not even close to closing yet.
3) as LIC states, almost -- if not more than -- 50% of the powerhouse units have sold in 2008 (granted, they have become more flexible with prices). Just randomly clicking I got 3 that sold in April.
4) 10-63 just went 85% sold and the last unit went fo around $800psf.
5) Granted that things are not selling as quickly as last summer ... or the summer before, most of the buildings are still selling at a heathy pace - the only two that I can't speak for, because they are not publicly listing are Hunters View and One Hunters Point (if anyone knows how those are coming along, please let me know.
DCO, I have never disagreed with your views on the overall state of the market. For anyone to deny that this is not a great market is just naive; however, I do have to begin to agree with LICComment (although I do feel that he is overly protective of the LIC market) that you for some reason like to single out LIC.
I respect you opinion DCO - and anyone who reads this board knows what your opinion is by now. But in my opinion - you are crazy to think that prices in LIC will come down to the $400 - $500psf range. 5SL is trying to command $950 - $1,000 psf, that was their latest round of price releases and they are not getting it (they did, however, break the record for actually getting $1,000psf for one of their units). So, I can easily see 5 SL continuing to get $800 + PSF, since that is what most of the listings that went to contract entered contract for - does that mean that people who bought at $800psf will lose value on their apartment? no! it means that they paid fair value and that the latest round of releases was at the peak ...
are many units in LIC still selling below the $800 psf mark? - yes, just look at listings in contract this year and for the past 2 months.
If you are sitting aruond and waiting for prices to come to the $400psf mark, then you will end up living in the Pennsylvania. Prices above the $700psf mark are here to stay .. as long as you bought at under 750psf, then you made a sound investment if you plan to live in your apartment and not flip it.
DCO, your advice seems to be directed at people who are interested in making an investment, not people who are actually looking to buy a home. I don't disagree with the investment aspect; if you are looking to make and investment in this market (anywhere in this cuontry) then you are most likely making a very bad choice.
If you are looking for a good place to live in NYC where prices are reasonable relative to a central location, then I would strongly recommend moving looking at LIC.
DCO, it is clear from your older posts that at one point you considered looking at LIC. Clearly you are waiting for prices to come down. I hope, for your sake, that you find a good deal if that is what you are looking for; hoever, if you think that by posting messages on this board all day will convince people to flee the area and abandon their contracts so that you can get your $400 - $500psf then you are wasting your breath.
So, why don't you stop aggravating all of the people that have an interest in the area - in the meantime, you can sit back and wait for prices to drop (if that's ehat you think is going to happen)
ohhhh, and to try and stay on the topic of your thread.
The gantry prices are (of course) vs. listign prices, not original sale prices.
Now, to say that this is a "comp" is funny. This is a non-doorman building with few ameneties. You point out exactly what LICComment has been trying to prove. This building is not a comp and units moved at 700+ psf.
The developers of Hunters Point Condos have been quoted in publications recently that both buildings are more than 50% sold, with increasing prices, and that sales have gone very well in 2008.
I'm not trying to imply that the market is booming. LIC has slowed from its rapid sales pace of a year ago. But sales in LIC are still happening, prices are holding steady at their highs, and dco is spreading a lot of false information.
Lobo - thanks for a very reasonable response. I agree that the Queens Plaza area is the least desirable in the newly developing LIC areas right now, but I don't think it will take 15 years to dramatically change. It is relatively small geographically. The new buildings going up are high-end (Crescent Club, View59, Star),and the streetscape changes have been funded and will start soon. Once significant numbers of new residents move in, I think that location will change pretty quickly. Once the new buildings started going up in the Lower East Side and East Village, it didn't take long for those areas to clean up.
And dco, let's see if I can break down an economics lesson for you so you can understand. When analyzing a supply-demand curve, you may have movements up or down the curve, or you may have a shift of the entire curve up or down. This is basic economics 101. What you are seeing in LIC is a shift of the entire curve upwards. Movements may still occur up and down the curve, but overall prices will be higher even with higher supply because the transformation of the neighborhood will continue to shift the the entire curve upward. You can check any basic economics textbook for more information on demand curve shifts.
lobo an lic- I don't agree with your assessments of the area. The price's are to high for the area. You can rent similar units for much less then the cost of buying. LICComment I find it comical that you are quoting the developers as to the progress of their projects. Why haven't they released the stats at Hunters Point Condos. How do you really know what the truth is? Perhaps they are adding up 25% of one building and 25% of the other? I don't know and neither do you.
And yes LICComment you have said that LIC is not having trouble selling. When in fact it is and that's my point. You guys should re-read my previous posts as to why new construction CANNOT LOWER PRICE'S until they close the pending contracts. It would put the whole project in jeopardy.
On another note I want to be clear I feel the whole market is overpriced. So don't take it personal about LIC being overpriced.
LICComment: "Once the new buildings started going up in the Lower East Side and East Village, it didn't take long for those areas to clean up."
By "clean up" I assume you mean reduce crime/become safer. As a long time East Villager I can tell you that new development had absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with it. Simply put, there's almost no new development here, and the area was dramatically changed before whatever is here arrived. The LES has a little more new development, but the vast majority of apartments are at the very least decades old (Co-op Village) and most are pre-war.
In the late-90's there was a concentrated effort to drive out drug dealers. I saw the impact literally on my doorstep. Any neighborhood that requires the same kind of focus today is going to have a much harder time now that the city and state budgets are in terrible shape.
DCO, I think that the reason people "think" that you single out LIC is becasue you do. Nearly every thread that you start is about LIC.
To your point about renting: Rents in LIC are actually holding up better than many parts of manhattan. In fact, rents just fell slightly in Manhattan while the average sale price crept up once again - read the latest reports on The Real Deal. That would technically make Manhattan more overpriced than LIC.
I have read your posts about new buildings lowering prices and I have responded many times. I would agree with you, but the difference (as i have stated many times) is that the current release prices are still well above the $psf amount that almost all of the contracts entered at. So, if people went to contract at $680 - $750psf and they are now releasing units at over $800psf then that gives plenty of room for sponsors to reduce prices without spooking people that have gone to contract. In fact, that's exactly what they are doing at the Powerhouse and that is why since they began to get flexible with prices units have started to sell again. Like I said, I think that LICComment is a bit overportective but he/she has provided you with concrete information that sales have ticked back up at The Powerhouse and other buildings in LIC.
Back to my last question. This thread is about The Gantry. It is not a "comp" and is selling at the same $psf that you claim the other buildings should not be getting, which just further proves the point that prices will not drop by $300 - $400psf as you claim.
I agree that this is not a great market -- overall -- but I do not think that the NY market is going to come crashing down. I agree that it has hit its peak for the next many years and that it may have some room to come down (certainly not double digits). We can debate that all day, and I realize that it is my opinion but then start a thread about that - or join one of the hundreds out there already. But, as long as you continue to start threads specific to LIC, people will continue to think that you have something against the area and respond to you the way that they have been.
I happen to like the LIC area very much and I don't even live there. So, I can understand how people get frustrated by the fact that you keep singling out LIC when you claim that you are really debating the overall state of the housing market.
Or are you?
lobo- We'll agree to disagree. Ok from now on I'll wait for someone else to start a LIC topic. I agree that I have probably made my point and some people don't want to hear that they made a mistake. No problem. I'll continue to monitor the market and keep my research and analysis to myself. Lets see where the market is at the end of the year. However I won't hold my breath in hopes that people will be adult enough to admit they were wrong. I myself will be the first to admit that my analysis was wrong, this you can count on. Lets just see how well these developments do the rest of the year. Until then you have my promise that I will not start any more LIC debates.
DCO - I wil certainly admit that I am wrong if/when the time comes.
Just to be clear, I am stating that if there is a fall, it will be no worse in LIC than the rest of the city. I have also said that it will not be a drastic fall (no more than 5 - 10%).
We'll regroup on this at the end of the year. I nthe meantime, my only point was that I didn't think that it was fair for you to single out the LIC market.