Condo conversions UWS

Paging West81st. West81st, white courtesy telephone, please.

Excellent question. Hope it gets some good analysis.

Short answer first:

Given the current pricing of most UWS conversions vs. comparable resales and new construction, there is very little reason to consider them. I see multiple risks, very few benefits, and prices that are not only high but also quite sticky because the conversion sponsors paid up for the buildings, set unrealistic yield targets and inherited a lot of problems that required capital investment.

One building I do find intriguing is the Sabrina on 97th/98th and Broadway. It's a mess, but the prices are dropping rapidly, it has more character than ParkColumbus and it's less conspicuously slummy than, say, 817 WEA or Avonova.

It will be interesting to see what happens with condos in general on the UWS, new and conversion. Just in my immediate area, for example, are the Linden, Harrison, and impending Apthorp conversion. And that's just in a 3-block radius. Prices are very high in the first two, and are rumored to be extremely high in the last. Is a glut possible? If so, people will most likely forgo the conversions for new construction or resales. Less risk, less headache and generally less cost. Also, don't forget that with conversions you will most likely face immediate and numerous maintenance increases, and a controlling and meddling sponsor.

I think the facade/brickwork of Sabrina is a mess which could mean significant assessments in the long term.

has anyone had the chance to compare 314 w100th, 905 wea and the sabrina?

Beware of one other issue with the Sabrina. The building itself does not extend to the corner of Broadway--it does not occupy the whole lot. There is another small building in front of it, owned by a different entity. The possibility does exist that the owner of the small building could sell and a developer could build up and cover windows on the Sabrina.

The website nycondoblog.com might have discussions of many of the pre-war conversions being mentioned here.

I have seen a couple Pre-War Condo conversions and was thoroughly unimpressed.

Renovations seem to be done with an eye to spend as little as possible to sell the units. At risk of sounding like a snob, I am not wild about the concept of paying top dollar for a unit and then sharing the floor with rent regulated tenants.

Agreed, realestatejunkie. Not to mention the fact that your maintenance will most likely be very high and you'll be shouldering the burden for all those rent-regulated tenants. I think that will be the major problem with the Apthorpe, for example. Can you imagine paying thousands in monthly maintenance and living in a building with over half rent-stabilized residents?

Benny2: Good point about the Broadway frontage on Sabrina. Anyone considering an apartment that looks east from the south tower or south from the north tower should consider the likelihood of development on the northwest corner of 97th and Broadway. The mattress store won't be there forever.

Does anyone know anyone who actually lives in the Sabrina... as a renter or a purchaser?

It looks like no maintenance has been done... but what is the actual experience of people living there? Are the units facing 97th street noisy due to bus traffic?
Does water truly seep through the brick work?
Is there so much construction and demolition that you can't hear yourself think?

Factual information appreciated

callidus: I hope to check out 314 W.100th and 905 WEA this week. I'll post a report if I get up there.

I was in Avonova last week. The condo was declared effective a few months ago, and they closed their pre-sales in June - looks like they raised $25-30MM from about twenty units, including a few discounted insider sales. The buyers must be pretty ticked off, because the place doesn't look any different from its old rental days, except the hallways are a little cheerier - and quite cheap-looking, with a heavy coat of brown paint on the doors and acoustic-tile dropped ceilings that might actually be permanent. No sign of the vaunted amenities yet, though my friend mentioned that a trainer has been designated for the gym; he has been cold-calling tenants to drum up business. I think this conversion might be in trouble unless the sponsor makes a killing on the commercial space.

DianeDrey - I have a friend living in the Sabrina - unit is very quiet, but faces rear/side of building, no view - unit was rehabbed before moving into it as a rental pre-conversion - has only said good things about the building, but has heard longer-term residents complain - got a good price at conversion

I like 314 W 100th, particularly the high floor south facing 2 br. I liked it more when it was priced 200k less. It was a good deal at about 1.12M but now at 1.3 M, not so much. And it is a touch too far north for my taste.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/193507-condo-314-west-100th-street-upper-west-side-manhattan

I visited 905 WEA and 314 W.100 yesterday. Reports are in the linked thread:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/4294-open-house-reports-71408

hsw9001: If you liked 314 W.100 #76 at $1.12MM, I have a feeling you can still get it for that price, or close to it. The recent price hikes were either a poorly-timed amendment that the sponsors now wish they had never done, or a tactic to create room for negotiation.

As I posted in West81st's open house thread, I think the 314 West 100 listing that went from $1.121 to $1.3 may have been a result of other recent sales on the street. There are a few 2 br's that went for over $1.121 that were not in nearly as good condition. When I saw it at $1.121 I was surprised at the price b/c other lesser units nearby went to cotnract for more. I still think $1.3 is crazy, but I really have no idea of how much of a discount they have to give because of the whole condo conversion thing.

From a competitive standpoint, I don't like 314 West 100th at all. For people who like that style, there are plenty of alternatives. 324 West 83rd, 46 West 83rd and 203 West 81st are two established coops and a condo that offer lower prices in a location that usually costs more. (I'd cite examples closer to 100th Street if I knew the area better.)

I think it's very difficult to price the risks associated with a condo conversion, and I suspect most buyers underestimate those risks and consequently overpay. Usually, it works out OK, but if the market slumps in a big way, look out.

Expanding on the post above - and zeroing in on the immediate area - I don't see what 314 West 100th Street offers that the new listing below (also Corcoran) doesn't - except higher prices and a lot of risk.
http://www.corcoran.com/property/listing.aspx?Region=NYC&listingid=1321603
I guess the condo vs. coop thing is an issue for some buyers, but is it really that important?

West81st, as I said before, I live next to 314, so here is my 2 cents. The listing you posted is right on B'Way and seems to be on the 3rd floor, so it will likely be super loud. That block is also not nearly as clean/attractive as 100th between WEA and Riverside. Broadway up in our neck of the woods is just not that pretty. That building is also not as nice I think (no pictures of the lobby for a reason). Not that the above distinctions make up for the difference between 314's new prices, but maybe for the old prices ($1.9ish). As for condo vs. co-op debate, when we were looking 2 years ago, we simply could not look at co-ops because of the 20%+ downpayment requirement. Maybe the gap has changed because of the mortgage problems, but I have to think you still put less down for a condo, right?

Does anyone have a sense of how far the area north of w96th street has come down in price since the peak (if at all)? Trying to get a sense of how unrealistic the pricing on these conversions is at the moment as I suspect their pricing is very much based on peak expectations. Thanks

hardly come down in price -- been looking here for a while -- still not much reduction

Starfish: Point taken about west of WEA vs. east of WEA. I think some people would rather be closer to services and transportation (and avoid the steep slope between WEA and RSD), but you're right that the locations appeal to different buyers. As for the noise on the third floor at 240 West 102nd, that's true too. By coincidence, the sixth-floor unit in that line was just reduced to the same price ($1.795MM), so use this one for comparison instead:
http://www.prudentialelliman.com/932385

In any event, I think we agree that a $500K premium for 314 West 100th is crazy, especially since the building is in transition, which carries a lot of risk.

Agreed that the $500K differential seems pretty crazy. Of course the owner of the 314 units watched them sit on the market for months without being sold and then raised the prices 20%, so they apparently don't really care for reason. I still think the original prices were not too bad, but what do I know.

Looks like there might be a strategy change in the works at Avonova. The website is unreachable, and - perhaps because of the website outage - the listings are mostly gone from Streeteasy.