where is my 3br/2ba for $1 to 1.249 million on the UWS

Hi am in similar situation to you--but looking for 2br/2ba on UWS. Looked last year as well and I actually believe there is more available in our price range (which hasn't changed). By this time last year, the spring flood of apartments (was more like a trickle, really) was pretty picked over. I just printed out the sheets for the apartments we are maybe going to visit today, and frankly, there are just too many to look at.

We are still just looking, since I do believe this thing is going to correct in a major way over the next year or so. Things take time in the real estate market. It is not like stocks that price everyday at 4:00. You have to let the inventory build and be patient. There is no harm in waiting in my view as prices are definitely not rising...

You may be just joking around joedavis but if not, I think your expectations are completely unrealistic. Decent UWS 3/2's are in the $2.5 - $3M range right now, and prices are going up, not down. Over the next year, you will be have to get eally lucky to get a decent 2/2 in that price range.
I looked at a 3/2 yesterday that hasn't hit the market yet and it already has an offer above asking.

LOL, JuiceMan:

Sales in All Upper West Side
We found 27 listings with at least 3 bedrooms with at least 2 bathrooms price has increased
Median price: $3,350,000 Median size: 2,327 ft² Median price per ft²: $1,650

Sales in All Upper West Side
We found 63 listings with at least 3 bedrooms with at least 2 bathrooms where price changed at least 5 %
Median price: $2,695,000 Median size: 2,200 ft² Median price per ft²: $1,331

Out of:

Sales in All Upper West Side
We found 327 listings with at least 3 bedrooms with at least 2 bathrooms
Median price: $3,110,000 Median size: 2,170 ft² Median price per ft²: $1,537

AND, you can only choose 5% or 10% decrease, not ANY decrease (as you can with ANY increase), so the figure is undoubtedly higher.

You guys are the eternal optimists, aren't you? You expect real estate prices to go up and up forever, ignoring all market fundamentals, but IF there is a decline you expect it to happen all at once. Apparently, you do not understand the concept of liquidity. Or what happens when imputed rents far exceed market rents - it ALWAYS leads to a decrease in prices, sometimes faster, sometimes slower. Same thing happened in 1988, it took 10 years to deflate. Now, though, we are much, much higher on the out-of-whack curve.

joedavis- Just rent. You can get a 3bed/2 bath for less a month then if you buy. Invest the downpayment and let the market correct. Of course JM will tell you that the crisis is over and you missed the boat.

Hello JM how is your weekend going?

but dco, if you rent you can't pick out your own paint colors! Don't you know that it's worth AT LEAST 3x the rental price to be able to pick out your own colors!

And you'll just be pissing your rent money away.

And, JM, let's just limit ourselves to price increases within the last 30 days:

Sales in All Upper West Side
We found 2 listings with at least 3 bedrooms with at least 2 bathrooms where price changed less than 30 days ago price has increased
Median price: $2,497,500 Median size: 1,700 ft² Median price per ft²: $1,173

One is an Elliman switcheroo and not an increase at all:

Price History

04/04/2008 Listed in StreetEasy with Elliman at $1,995,000
04/25/2008 Price decreased to $1,895,000
05/08/2008 Price increased to $1,995,000

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/212762-coop-325-west-75th-street-upper-west-side-manhattan

The other is an actual increase.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/185193-condo-241-west-97th-street-upper-west-side-manhattan

Then do it for 5% price decreases within the past 30 days:

Sales in All Upper West Side
We found 40 listings with at least 3 bedrooms with at least 2 bathrooms where price changed less than 30 days ago where price changed at least 5 %
Median price: $2,497,500 Median size: 2,200 ft² Median price per ft²: $1,293

You are so absolutely, 100% unbelievable as to be, well, unbelievable. The ratio of apartments with rising listing prices to falling listing prices is 1:40.

PRICES ARE GOING UP!

No, JuiceMan, we are in the classic pattern of a bear real estate market:

1) Inventory rises
2) Asking prices fall
3) Inventory still rises
4) Asking prices fall more
5) Inventory still rises
6) Asking prices fall more

And this goes on until it costs the exact same amount to buy as it does to rent. Now, however, it is exacerbated by the fact that rents are also falling.

There is a 1-year supply of apartments on the market in Manhattan right now JM, at historical sales levels. I think sales levels will be lower than the 10-year average of about 8,500 per year. Right now on streeteasy:

Sales in Manhattan
We found 8,380 listings
Median price: $1,213,500 Median size: 1,115 ft² Median price per ft²: $1,168

dco o.k so you talk about investing, what's considered a good investmeant these days, we have a very diverfised portfolio and that's not doing too hot these days either.

to my understanding when the market is bad, realestate isnt doing too good, and when the market is up realestate is up.

sfo, the real estate market and the stock market are completely uncorrelated, even in Manhattan. Ask Miller Samuel, it's on their website. The condition of the stock market (usually) depends on expectations of forward corporate earnings; the condition of the real-estate market depends on household income and leverage.

Please.

stevejhx please unless im asking you the question, dont reply since you have no control over your sarcasim and your comments. you always have to add something derogatory in all of your responses. once you have that control you can then reply to my comments. thank you.

I'll answer whatever I want, sfo. When I'm wrong I say so squarely. You should learn how to do that, and learn to look up things before you claim them to be true.

Even if it's on wikipedia. LOL.

if anyone is intersted: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=989959

steve, you should really read the title of this thread again. The OP was looking for a 3/2 for $1 - $1.25M. All of the statistics that you posted actually support my argument. If you are seeing price decreases on 3/2's in the UWS, it is because they are selling at $400-$750k more than they were two years ago. It is crazy, but they are still selling. If you were actually involved in the market instead of relying on streeteasy statistics, you would know this. Price decreases on a 3/2 on the UWS mean very little, as sales are way above last years comps. Anyone that is looking on the UWS can confirm this. 2/2's have been historically tough as well, but as drg correctly pointed out, there seems to be more inventory, but not yet a windfall in prices.

LOL!

Is that an article about owner-occupied residential real estate? I think not:

"This study explores the relationship between the stock market and the real estate market. Through the methodologies of cointegration and the Error Correction modeling and data from both the US and the UK stock and the real estate markets over the period 1985 through 2006 the results display that the two markets are considered highly integrated. The empirical findings have implications for managing property assets fund managers, for the pricing efficiency within the real estate market, and for policy makers regarding economic safety."

It's about how to manage portfolios of properties - that is, investment real estate and office buildings and malls. Not owner-occupied real estate.

Since we're talking about owner-occupied residential real estate:

http://www.forbes.com/2005/05/27/cx_sc_0527home.html

"But if you take a longer view--say 25 years--you'll find that the S&P 500 has actually stomped the real estate market, from Boston to Detroit to Dallas. From the start of 1980 to the end of 2004, home sale prices increased 247%. A pretty sweet deal, it would seem. Over the same period, however, the S&P 500 shot up more than 1,000%."

Just click on the link and look at the chart for New York.

Lame, lame, lame.

No, JuiceMan, we are in the classic pattern of a bear real estate market:

1) Inventory rises
2) Asking prices fall
3) Inventory still rises
4) Asking prices fall more
5) Inventory still rises
6) Asking prices fall more

And this goes on until it costs the exact same amount to buy as it does to rent. Now, however, it is exacerbated by the fact that rents are also falling.

steve, when I see it happening I will gladly report on it. It's not happening in that segment of the market.

I'll hold you to that JM - just like your buy-versus-rent thread that died when I showed you what the formula was, and how I couldn't be anything but right.

You've seen the other thread, I'm sure, about money-losing apartments. Right now it's happening at the lower end - $1 to $2 million, as if that were a "low end" - but it'll reach everywhere.

joedavis: It depends on your definitions. Are you looking for a classic seven in a good building with good light, above the ground floor? If so, you might have to adjust your expectations or wait for substantial downward adjustment, which may or may not ever come. I think that market is a bit south of where JuiceMan puts it, but it's still north of $2MM.

If you can settle for a classic six with a layout that lends itself to conversion - or one that has already been converted - I think the all-in price point is currently $1.5-2MM, and appears to be falling. Obviously, the price in top buildings is much higher, and JuiceMan's threshold for uncrappiness is higher than mine.

SFO - I think it's time that stevejhx is reported to the Streeteasy moderator as being abusive. On the bottom of this page, there's a link "contact us". I'll be reporting him in a minute. Unlike free-for-all blogs, this one is moderated. SFO, please join me in reporting him.

inquirer, I guess it's time to shoot the messenger b/c you don't like the message?

FYI grammar: "stevejhx be reported...."

inquirer you must have read my mind

Before you report "stevejhx" can we first find out if he lives in a huge rent controlled or stabilized apt.? That would explain some of it.

No I live in a market rental, thanks for asking.

long long overdue

captain - I believe that on one thread steve said (when accused of being a Mitchell Lama dweller) that he's in market-rate $4500/mo 2-bed, 2-bath apt. Recently, on another thread, he said $2500/mo.
I do believe stevejhx is in some kind of heavily subsidized housing, lecturing/abusing everybody from his taxpayers' paid for perch.

When I get the email from Matt Walker I'll be posting it right away. LMAO.

"just like your buy-versus-rent thread that died when I showed you what the formula was, and how I couldn't be anything but right."

I can't remember steve, is that the thread where you completly lost your shit, babbled for pages, everyone made fun of you, and the you ran like a scared mouse? Yeah....that was a good one. Thanks for reminding me about it.

interesting that even a focused question here leads to a regurgitation of exactly the same arguments and information by the 3 to 4 people who post persistently on streeteasy.
There are very few apts meeting the description that I put out and they are all quite unsatisfactory in most respects. Yes a classic 6 is fine.
West81 is right that the price point for some choice for the prescription I put up is $1.5 to 2mm. I have not moitored that price segment but if it is dropping then indeed there is some hope.
Looking back over my notes there were indeed more choices last year in this price range and category, and it is probably true that 2/2's are much more available at this price point this year. It actually makes sense if there is a bit of a decline going on.

So if a reasonable 3/2 is in the 1.5 to 2 m range, then a 20 to 30% correction price would bring it in my range. So far, I have not seen this kind of a change developing anywhere I have explored, including S. Harlem

how long has this being going onwith stevejhx ?

Also, street easy moderator should be reminded of the fact that the site really does depend on collaborating brokers, and in that light an abusive aspiring manipulator, however mentally unstable, is a huge liability.

joedavis i dont know about UWS, but i have been in the same situation but im looking downtown, and what i noticed is the larger apts 2 br and above are not going down, thats why we are looking into getting 2 one bedrooms and combining.

A rising "# of Days on the Market" is the initial factor leading to price declines. If a property sits on the market long enough, the sellers eventually lose their patience and re-price accordingly. Even if the sellers are not in a big hurry, comparable apartments will eventually have to be re-priced, which sets precedent and lowers the bar for all similar units. According to Miller Samuel, during Q1 2008, the average days on the market was 146. There is no shortage of properties that have been listed for 200 or 300 days or more.

sfo, I'm in no way affiliated with Steve in any shape or form, but I've been reading these boards for quite some time, and even when I don't agree with what he says or maybe not comfortable with delivery, at least he has a compelling enough argument that he can support with logic and publicly available information...it's up to you wherever you want to refute that with more than "don't respond to me, until I ask you to" or "let's report the guy" type of comments - that doesn't do you any justice...in trading this is what's called pick up the fight...prove him wrong, or become a laughing stock and walk away...

joedavis, I will happily defer to West81st on this subject, as he is the legitimate expert on the area. Though my info is purely anecdotal and based on what I personally have seen in a limited area, it is better than sweeping market generalizations based upon a Chelsea renter botching numbers he got from streeteasy.

Oberon i dont have a problem with anyone who has a diffrent view or shares their opnion. what is distrubing is the deleivery and the attacks, why after making his point Steve has to use LAME LAME LAME, and things of that nature.

i have never had an issue with the mesage but of the way, i cant understnad peopel that attacka nd rude for no reason and that's what im talking about. this is not about proving anyone worn, im here to collect information and becoem more educated abotu a topic im not familary with, when i asked my question to DCO, i was mereley trying to become more knowelgable, butinstead i get unessacry rudness for no apparnet reason.

sfo - my experience in hunting for a larger apartment is that even the combination apartments are difficult to find because it's rare to find two or more apartments (1) being sold at the same time, (2) adjacent to one another and (3) when combned, would have a layout that would make sense as one large apartment since moving walls, removal of kitchens, and expansion/addition of rooms is quite tricky and involved. As a result, I find that combinations are also generally higher priced than if one were to buy the two apartments separately at separate times. Is this what you're finding as well?

joedavis - I personally haven't found any extremely good deals as far as 2BR+/2BA coops or condos are concerned anywhere in Manhattan. The few that seem half way decent but are extremely well-priced just fly off the market.

The discussion of ousting Steve reminds me of when the federal gov't told John Gotti that he could no longer use his attorney because he never loses. Sure why not, if you don't like the message silence the messenger.

It sounds like some people on this board only want one opinion, there own. If Steve is banned I'll leave in protest not because I believe in everything he says but because he has a view that is very relevant to the success of this site. Get rid of steve and I'll leave. So start your campaign and lets see if the monitors will remove the most knowledgeable poster on this site.

coopownr98, i have found the combo apts only in the new construction or the conversion but you are right outside those two options its pretty diffcult.

no, JM, that thread you cite doesn't exist - it was the thread where I showed you how the Fed calculates imputed rent, gave you the formula, and you gave some bizarrely circular definition of "price of the property" as something to do with the down payment multiplied by the risk-free interest rate, ha-ha-ha.

Remember that one?

"a reasonable 3/2 is in the 1.5m" - now you can't even get a 2-2 for that price.

dco - I'm nowhere near being "banned." The only person I know of who got banned was the person posting under pseudonyms similar to mine. That IP address was banned.

Actually, Matt Walker - the face of the streeteasy Inquisition - likes my posts. They make him laugh.

sfo - you are so defensive on a stupid board. Lighten up. If I post something dumb - and I have - I get taken to task over it. You should expect the same treatment. You posted garbage, and got called on it.

If you get insulted by "lame lame lame" then you're oversensitive. I was discussing your "argument," not you.

Oberon, sometimes I don't even agree with myself. ;0

steve, I can understand why Matt laughs at your posts, entertaining fiction can be tough to find these days. You may want to consider changing your handle to DanielleSteeljhx

sfo - I also tried negotiating a combination at a new development. We didn't like the projectd 3BR renderings and wanted a different configuration. Believe it or not, even without the developer having to add (and then remove) the 2nd kitchen, I was told that I'd have to pay extra for the architectural sketches, etc. Customization, which is what one gets from a combination, since it would theoretically be different from the 'standard' layouts, comes at a hefty price! I guess that so long as there's architect, contractor, and legal intervention, which is what's required with combinations, there's always a premium involved. Good luck to us all on obtaining that larger, gracious space!

coopownr98, have you spoken to an expidtor to see what are the costs involved ? an architect was telling me ( i ahvent got confirmation yet ) that if I add say french doors between the two apts opposed to knocking down the whole wall it's less of a hassle and paper work . where are you looking ? in fidi there seems to be more inventory with combination than in other places.

JM, imputed rent = market rent. Whenever it doesn't, something's gotta give.

sfo - upwards of $15,000; the recommended ones are double. There's definitely less of a potential risk that the combination isn't nixed with your suggestion on the french doors but my understanding is that it doesn't eliminate the need to get the expeditor involved if you want the place combined in paper. We looked in the Chelsea, Gramercy, Flatiron, Murray Hill areas, primarily. We've focused on pre-wars (conversions don't have the abatement hook but, at least, we know where things stand financially). It is a tough hunt out there for buyers despite the bad news with the local job market (financials) so searching for greater space with the hopes of paying less per square foot has been impossble.

I've found that the larger the space, the greater the price per square foot. No bulk pricing here!

Steve, you say: "I'll answer whatever I want, sfo. When I'm wrong I say so squarely. You should learn how to do that, and learn to look up things before you claim them to be true.

Even if it's on wikipedia. LOL."

I searched the boards looking for times you admitted you were wrong and couldn't find any. Can you give me a list?

Couldn't help myself:

stevejhx
about 9 weeks ago
report abuse

With all that's going on in the financial world right now, and you're worried about "anecdotes"?

That's hard to believe.

tenemental
about 9 weeks ago
report abuse

Easy, Steve. I'm reading the other threads. No reason we can't share campfire stories in the meantime. Believe me, I'm not the least bit "worried" about these anecdotes.

stevejhx
about 9 weeks ago
report abuse

Good point, tenemental. You win!

But Steve, please remember, it was Will who stuck up for you recently when the imposter was in full force and everyone was piling on.

will, I'm rarely wrong on this market b/c I've been following it like a hawk for 10 years. I'm rarely wrong on emerging markets, either, b/c I've been dealing with them since 1982.

However, when I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

The pumpers want a Pravda-riffic government organ that only reports the glorious up-up-and-away market news. Sorry, comrades: Определения для are everywhere!

Определения для?! jerkstore, was your dictionary cut off before that sentence was done? T
Such passions about the real estate that you DO NOT own. What a bunch of sociopaths.

I guess Little Black Arrows are so powerful they broke babelfish.... And BTW, I do own -- in Gramercy. Burn.

JoeDavis/Juiceman: It looks as though the $2MM resistance point for a true 3BR may be cracking.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/191335-coop-200-west-79th-street-upper-west-side-manhattan

Nice building, high floor. It won't get to joedavis's $1.25MM price, but for a buyer who likes post-war duplexes, this could be a nice opportunity. The seller sure looks motivated.

West81st - good find. Do you think the maintenance is a bit high?

Guys, I invite you to look at this:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/3820-how-do-you-know-if-property-is-overpriced

It should answer your questions (not the one on maintenance).

October: Yes it is. That building runs close to $1.50/sq.ft./month. Not sure why.

West81st - thanks. I'm not sure what to make of the general NY RE situation right now. Inventory has been rising (though below what Urbandigs would think of as being a real buyers' market) and prices are still pretty sticky (although there does seem to be some movement downward in apartments). The Memorial Day weekend seems to have slowed down an already slow market. Hmmm.

Here's a new listing asking $1.295MM. It's a marginal 3BR, but it works if you can do without a real dining room.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/266337-coop-315-west-end-ave-upper-west-side-manhattan

Note that the same agents got a little over $1.4MM for the apartment below this one last year. Nicer kitchen, and there may have been some other upgrades, but it's the same layout:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/73760-coop-315-west-end-ave-upper-west-side-new-york

West 81. re: 315 WEA...Halstead had the listing 3 months ago and couldn't move the apt at 1.25mm

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/134606-coop-315-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-manhattan

Your never going to "impress your friends" in that apt, but it does have some decent sized rooms (though the kitchen is small). Master bath and kitchen need a total gutting.

************ As an aside, without making this into a love-fest, I skim/read this section often and find your (West81st) comments to be consistently useful/insightful. Thanks for your input to this forum.

Does 200 w 79th have two kitchens or is that an old floor plan?

The info that you guys just provided for 315 West End Avenue is the reason I love StreetEasy so much. Thank you West81st. Items like that really give me a better idea of the games that are played.

what game are you referring to? Is it wrong for a seller to switch brokers?

walterh7/dlafronz: You're welcome, and thank you. I hadn't noticed that listing in its first incarnation with Halstead. I guess Corcoran convinced the seller that Halstead's initial price ($1.295MM) was fine, and that the problem was the broker.

JuiceMan: I'll check out 200 W.79th this weekend. Looks like when they duplexed the two units, they left the fixtures in the downstairs kitchen. Not a bad move, IMO, if it was just going to be storage anyway.

Thx all -- looks like there is at least 1 choice -- will go check it out
There have been a few others, but by and large they have been rather unattractive

Here's another for $1.2MM. Calling it seven rooms is a joke; it's more like five.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/266410-condo-311-amsterdam-avenue-upper-west-side-manhattan

The trade-off in this range seems to be that you can have a third bedroom, but you might have to eat your meals off the kitchen counter. At least in this case they look like decent counters.

Saw 311 Amsterdam today. For it's price, it is quite reasonable especiallyfor the location. There was quite a bit of traffic and I predict it will move quickly.

i went to 311 Amsterdam too. It is nicely done and well priced compared to many things we saw
1) no dining area or dining room. If you put one in this is a 2br -- which given 1200 sq ft makes more sense
2) street noise from Amsterdam will be an issue. Fixed with new windows
3) you pay all heat and A/C. good and bad since you can control it

Likely it will sell quickly since it shows well

JuiceMan: I saw the apartment at 200 West 79th today. The downstairs kitchen is now a laundry/utility room. The counters, cabinets and sink are still there. The appliances are gone. It's a cute apartment. Like most duplexes, it feels smaller than the square footage. And while the building is handsome, it offers neither prewar charm nor modern amenities.

311 Amsterdam sold for $1.015mm in 11/06. Does that not refute the notion that things are softening dramatically? If it sells for 1.2mm, that is close to 20% in 19 months. Not a great investment, but hardly a sign of a fall-off in prices.

dlafronz: Hard to say. It depends on the eventual sale price and how much money the current owners have put into the unit. I agree with your basic point, though: so far, we've mostly seen air squeezed out of aspirational asking prices. That could the first step toward a major correction, or it could just be a hiccup.

311 amsterdam -- was told by the broker that it (the entire building) was redone 2 years ago. So, if it was sold as part of th erenovated building then the appreciation (if it sells for asking) would be legit
there is not much at thsi price so if the buyer can overlook the lack of dining space this will sell given that it shows well

We live several blocks away from this building and walk by it nearly everyday. I believe the renovations were undertaken by the sponsor and the units sold in 2006 already renovated (I remember when they were listed, but didn't look at them).

For what it is worth, Amsterdam Avenue is LOUD. We live over it on the 13th floor with new windows and it is still loud. I can only imagine how noisy it must be on the 3rd floor....even with noise reduction windows, I can't imagine it won't be noisy.

Also, there is no lobby in this building. Basically you enter a vestibule and then there is an elevator right there. Not sure if this matters to anyone, but it is kind of odd...

drg is right -- the noise is a definite issue
and this is a "barebones" building

Also, there is no way that this apartment is 1200 sq ft. Using the measurements on the floor plan it looks more like 900. Which would put the $1.2 million at about $1333/sq. ft for a building with no services. Maybe you pay a bit of a premium for the fact that it is a condo....but this one seems really expensive.

(Okay, they basically all seem really expensive).

Not quite $1.25 yet, but here's a genuinely nice apartment on 91st and Broadway that has dropped farther than I thought it would:
http://www.prudentialelliman.com/915514 or http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/112058-coop-215-west-91st-street-upper-west-side-new-york

At $2.4MM, it was clearly overpriced, since the building topped out around $1100/sq.ft. and #11-3 has small bedrooms and a limited view. But at $1.649MM, it's getting into territory that its comps smashed through in 2005-2006.

Thanks West81, you're insight is always appreciated.

Very odd bathroom situation in this apartment. Powder room in the master so despite having 2.5 bathrooms, you're left with the guest bath (ie the only one not en suite) likely being the one that the master and the 2nd largest bedroom shares. Also the living room/dining room proportions are out of whack, living room is too narrow. My guess is these problems just result in people going elsewhere, why bother unless its a steal.

oh and the kitchen is down the hall from the dining room. very strange layout. looks like pretty good space for the money though.

The DeSoto is a nice building but it is still 91st which is a kinda homely part of the UWS.
2.4 million original ask. People ARE out of their minds.

I agree, strange layout.

ccdevi: Good call. Your post reminded me that I had the same thoughts about the layout when I saw the apartment in February.

kgg: I think prime UWS extends a bit above 90th along Broadway. And for people who work downtown, a two-block walk to the south entrance of the express station is a plus. You're right that 91st might be a bit far north for some tastes.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/22/realestate/22deal2.html?ref=realestate

$1 million for 1,300 square feet by Columbia?

Not a bad deal @ $770 psf. Wait a year or so & it'll be worth $650 psf, but still much better priced than most.

Even among apartments priced under $1 million, where hedge fund managers don’t deign to tread, it is far from a runaway buyers’ market, real estate brokers say. A well-priced apartment can still produce a sizzling bidding war among those yearning for that rarest of commodities — an affordable family-sized apartment in Manhattan.

That’s what happened after David G. Rubin's apartment went on the market at 54 Morningside Drive, at West 116th Street, in the heart of Morningside Heights at $799,000.

The broker hired by the estate, Peter Griffiths of the Corcoran Group, listed the apartment in May for $799,000. It has six rooms in 1,300 square feet of space. As soon as the listing went up, he was besieged by would-be buyers who began making offers above the asking price.

In five days, 39 buyers came through the apartment. For two and a half days, he said, he scheduled a showing every half hour, from 9 a.m. to 7 p.m.

After the apartment was shown for five weekdays, Mr. Griffiths held an open house two days later, and 25 groups of buyers showed up. He and the estate decided to go to a “highest, best offer by the following Tuesday.” There were 10 offers.

The apartment, now in contract, went for nearly $1 million.

Yes, in a year, ALL 39 prospective buyers who made appointements to view this one affordable apartment will dry up and disappear. ALL 25 additional buyers to the first 39 who showed up for the one open house will dry up and disappear as well. And the 10 prospective buyers who all offered (probably) above ask will dry up and disappear as well.

R-I-G-H-T....

Oh malraux, you're far too easy:

Sales in Manhattan
We found 7,918 listings
Median price: $1,250,000 Median size: 1,153 ft² Median price per ft²: $1,163

That apartment, in a prime neighborhood where housing is constrained by Columbia, sold for 50% less per square foot than the median-priced Manhattan property: $776 vs. $1163.

And even still there were just:

39 prospective buyers
25 additional buyers

Given that ratio, and given the inventory of about 8000 apartments, you're going to need 125x that number of buyers (8000 / (39 + 25) = 125) to clear today's inventory.

That's right, to clear Manhattan's near 1-year supply of apartments, you will need 125x the number of people interested in that one apartment priced 50% below the Manhattan median.

Those buyers aren't going to "disappear": they're going to wait for an appropriately priced apartment, which is one with a price per square foot 50% below today's median.

It's what I've been saying all along, and what every calculation done proves.

Funny how a story can be spun different ways. The facts seem to support either of the following conclusions:

1) Price an apartment right, and buyers will beat a path to your door; or
2) In this market, the only way a broker can draw interest is to screw up and price a listing too low.

The question that matters - and of course the article doesn't address it - is how the selling price compares to more recent comps. That's assuming there are any recent comps. If there aren't, then this little anecdote doesn't seem to mean much of anything.

Hmmm == I am amazed at how quickly people offer "informed" opinions here with numbers seemingly drawn from a hat to argue either side of a point. As to the Morningside apartment, I was one of the 39 who looked at it. Until quite recently Morningside Drive was scary, despite outstanding park views. The apartment was in estate condition with 2 modest size bedrooms, and 1 bath that needed updating. You could count on $250k+ in renovations to get it to a 3br. No washer/dryer - not allowed. Outstanding Park views. Self-managed building -- owner is responsible for virtually everything, subject to coop board approval of course.So, there were several questions. Nevertheless, there is hardly anything available in the Columbia area that is decent and at a decent price. So, it is no surprise that it elicited a lot of interest. I am not sure if the apartment would have elicited nearly this much interest if it was listed at $1.2 with a trajectory of selling at 1 million. Severl brokers here are smart and deliberately underprice a property stimulating a bidding war.
This is not necessarily a reflection of the market overall. It is indeed a special case.
I was amused by Steve's Math
8000 apts/ (39+25 buers who show up at 54 Morningside) = apparently meaningful number for something?
Let's say the Morningside area has 0.001* the population of Manhattan or 0.01* the acticaly looking population. Without knowing some specifics of the situation and the overall market, it is pointless to ramble on anad on with the points the fellows here seem to want to make.
Initially, I was attracted to this board since it seemed very useful to discuss conditions and options. However, it seems that about 5-10 people hijack every thread and repeat their positions ad nauseum. Perhaps we can create a subset where just these people are allowed to beat up on each other and the rest of us can periodically visit that section for entertainment

"8000 apts/ (39+25 buers who show up at 54 Morningside) = apparently meaningful number for something? "

Exactly joe. That equation and the 125 result may be the silliest thing steve has ever posted on this board and that is saying an awful lot.

"Given that ratio, and given the inventory of about 8000 apartments, you're going to need 125x that number of buyers (8000 / (39 + 25) = 125) to clear today's inventory.

That's right, to clear Manhattan's near 1-year supply of apartments, you will need 125x the number of people interested in that one apartment priced 50% below the Manhattan median."

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. steve, what in the hell are you talking about?

Accoridng to the Street Easy box on UrbanDigs, there are currently 7,557 apartments for sale in Manahttan, not 8,000.

You're right about one thing, weasel-boy - the math IS easy:

64 people in one week to view one apartment with 10 offers (probably) above ask.

In Morningside Heights

That's the actual math.

Your non-responsive post falls under the heading 'cosmic rationale.'

"ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. steve, what in the hell are you talking about?"

Exactly what I said, Mr. $10 (diet) Beer Man w/ a Hot Ass: the fact that now you can't even get 1/10 of the people you used to get for a well-priced apartment.

(probably)

LMAO.

"64 people in one week to view one apartment with 10 offers"

At 50% the Manhattan median. I'd offer, too, b/c that equates to 12x annual rent.

LMAO.

you're so intellectually dishonest its unreal. please go away.

ccdevi: "you're so intellectually dishonest its unreal. please go away."

Why? Juiceman complained about Yankees tickets going from $40 to $300 in 10 years. Well, that's exactly what happened to property prices in 10 years - from $400,000 to $3,000,000. Same factor. What's "dishonest" about that?

"64 people in one week to view one apartment with 10 offers (probably) above ask."

I could get thousands of people to make offers above ask if my initial asking price is 75% below the market median, and the final sale price - after 65 people - is still 50% below median.

"(probably)" If I ever made a conjecture like that I'd be called a WEASEL. LMAO.

FYI "cosmic rationale" makes no sense.

As for prime UWS, above 91st is considerably bleaker than below, let's say 85th, and definitely bleaker than the 70's. Granted CPW, Riverside and West End have there share of grand apts up north.
But the little things to love about living in Manhattan are not represented like they are farther south.
The housing stock between Columbus and West End is kind of crummy, good restaurants are few and far between, the grocery stores are substandard, and the streets are filled with shuffling old rent-controllers.

Manhattan real estate excluding truly lux digs has been basically selling by the pound.
Granted, all of Manhattan has become prime real estate to some degree, but we will start seeing
a clearer delineation between truly prime versus less desirable neighborhoods in prices offered.
The beginning of the downturn.

kgg- Very good assessment and agree that the creme will rise to the top in a tough market.

dco- Good analogy but would prefer something along the lines of "when the tide goes out all ships will drop and the leaky vessels will sink to the bottom." Hmmm, maybe I am just a bitter renter.

Well kkg, I actually chose to live to in Morningside Heights over 'prime' UWS even though I could have easliy affored a nice 2-3 bed below 85th. Why? Well, visit the area btw 106th and 125th on Riverside Drive. It's the best location in the city. There are 3 supermarkets within 5 blocks (the Westside Market is not substandard). The restaurants are kid friendly and, last time I looked, there was a terrific blend of people who live around Columbia...some of whom are rocket scientists (no joke)and are way more intelligent than stevejhx likes to believe he is. No doubt, it's not 'prime' for which I am VERY grateful. The day that it feels like 75t street is the day I move. By the way, have you ever even been up here??????

Actually, I like the Columbia area and enjoyed hanging out there when I got my MA.

"I could get thousands of people to make offers above ask if my initial asking price is 75% below the market median, and the final sale price - after 65 people - is still 50% below median."

steve, I’m used to fuzzy logic from you on this board but this is bad even for you. Are you claiming victory with your 2x theory because an apartment sold below the median price in Manhattan? You are beginning to sound desperate.

grunty, the area above 96th street west of the park used to be Manhattan's best kept secret. Townhouses on Manhattan ave, classic 6 pre-wars on RSD and Claremont ave. All this without the 72nd street "UWS" drama king/queen mentality.

steve, porque voce fala o nome do seu faculdade qualquer opportunidade? Faz nada. Nao importe. Ta doido certo.

"because an apartment sold below the median price in Manhattan"

No, in fact, JuiceMan, half of all apartments sell below the median price not only in Manhattan but everywhere, and half of all people have below-average IQ's.

So what is your point steve?