Maybe it's possible some people have tastes that differ from yours. I know, I know - it's unlikely. But there's still a chance.

seriously...go back to 5th ave and 87th street...

Cheetah, you obviously are a broker or bought in WB. correct? How can WB compete with a downturn in Manhattan RE values? We both know the only reason you would live in WB is for value over Manhattan, translation "I can not afford Manhattan, but Williamsburg is close." Now that Manhattan is coming down why would anyone want to live in WB? So, places like the EDGE and the others, will be offering HUGE incentives to fill these massive complexes. And with NO credit available (or barely available) their target market has been unraveled. Common sense says that WB will be very very reasonably priced, very very soon.

GoingDown, I think that's a very liberal generalization about the WB market. The whole "can't afford Manhattan but Williamsburg is close" is a bit off base. Time will tell for the Edge - I don't think you can make definitive statements about what will happen there.

bjw - I agree "time will tell" but you can not tell me that people who move into these massive complexes would not rather be in Manhattan. I should have said about 80% of them rather Manhattan. Yes I have not polled them all but come on, who really wants to commute from a 1.5 mil place. Come on let's be realistic.

GoingDown - for those of us who live on the northside close to the Bedford stop, it is much less of commute than you might think. When I was looking to buy, it was really between the UWS and WB. I work near Wall St, and I can assure you the commute is shorter from WB. And I know we're talking about the Edge here, but most of the new developments and housing stock in WB is not comprised of "massive complexes."

yes last time I checked this thread said "The Edge" Sorry for your recent RE value losses. But if you really do not think they over built in WB, then we are totally on different pages. There is a MASSIVE over build going on over their with the EDGE and the other 3 towers that are next to them, let alone the smaller buildings such as the Kent. Wait until next year when they complete those projects and you can not reach into your pockets on the subway platform due to over crowding.

The commute is not bad at all - the L connects to you to every major line in Manhattan in 3-10 minutes. But buying waterfront in WB at $1000 p.s.f. is buying into a dream of what WB might someday be, not what it is. That area, right now, is a dump - the only redeeming feature being the view of Manhattan (where, as per GoingDown, 80+% of potential Edge buyers would rather be). It will take years to finish all the park space - and that's assuming that funding doesn't dry up entirely. This reminds me of Canary Wharf in London, which went bankrupt in 1992 before the boom many years later brought it back to life. Cheetah cannot possibly be serious about prices staying "flat" on already wildy pricey waterfront apartments. Manhattan prices, except at the very top end, are already falling steeply. And when I go apartment-shopping next year, rest assured I'll look there before I set foot in WB again . . .

Really? Can we stop with the condescending "sorry for your recent RE value losses" comments? It's cool that you know that much about my property without actually knowing it. Obviously there's a lot being built there, but any smart buyer knew that and took it into account when shopping around. The only people in trouble are the quick flippers - in my experience there just aren't very many in WB, but who knows? I'm not one of them - I bought a 2BR to grow into long-term. As for the L train, you should know that where there's really a problem with overcrowding is at the 1st Ave station, which is, you know, in Manhattan.

It's amazing the logic people apply to real estate, which they wouldn't apply to anything else. For example:

- "Only flippers suffer. I bought for long-term." Anyone who knew that an apartment would drop 25+% before recovering years later would obviously have chosen to rent until the drop had played out. What a rationalization! Buying at a peak is opportunity cost - it is real money.

- "Waterfront is special . . . Manhattan is an island, it's not getting any bigger . . ." By this type of logic, anything in limited supply (i.e., all real estate) only goes up in price. But if people believed it were true, they would obviously bid up the price today to the point where it couldn't go up further - in which case, it's not true.

tanker is right. williamsburg is a dump, but people who can't afford to live in manhattan are buying there in the hopes that the area will improve in the next five years. it's based on a total fantasy.

tanker, it's amazing that people judge other people's investments so blindly here, which they (hopefully) wouldn't do with anything else. People have many reasons for buying and there are so many individual variables in play that your assertion is laughable. Furthermore, values have yet to drop "25+%" and although that's always a possibility, I'll remind you that the Dow has already dropped by more than that.

not quite. the dow is down 23% from peak in oct '07, but only down 18% ytd.

streakeasy, it's actually just over 24% from Oct 07 (and it was over 25% after the big drop on Monday), but this is nitpicking.

I am an attorney and live in work in Manhattan and have not bought anything yet but am definitely considering Williamsburg. I can afford buying in Manhattan but like Williamsburg better than most areas of Manhattan and the areas in Manhattan that I like have very few new developments within my budgetary reach although frankly I would rather buy in Williamsburg in most head to head match ups in Manhattan. I do thinjk the Edge will come down a bit but I must say that you guys who are constantly screaming the sky is falling seem to find it difficult to believe that anyone who is not screaming is anything but a real estate broker. this kind of makes me think that you have an ax to grind because why would you jump to such conclusions just because someone disagreed with your rather dire predictions.

what part of manhattan do you live in? what do you find so appealing about williamsburg? the place is a dump, and there's been a lot of criminal activity there lately.

rufus, I disagree with the two things you state, that it is a dump and that there is a lot of criminal activity there.

I live in Union Square/East Village and enjoy myself everytime I go out to Williamsburg. It's a calm relaxed environment and is becoming nicer by the day. I enjoy the many nice restaurants, bars, etc and generally like the parks and the less frenetic pace. The weekend before last I went out to look at new devs, had brunch at Juliette, then later had a couple beers at the Brooklyn Brewery...did this all with a couple friends and my fiancee. All but one of those in the group live and work in Manhattan and all of us had a good time. Don't get me wrong, I still love parts of Manhattan but the $1400/sq ft price of the places I have looked at in new devs (my pref) in manhattan are out of our price range. However, I see Williamsburg as a great option..it may not be for you but I really like it and have a great time every time I go out there.

I think its only getting better and despite a slow down, I think it will be a fun place to live for about 5-8 years.

well, the neighborhood is still very unattractive; it will be years before it looks nice.

williamsburg still mainly caters to artists and hipsters. most finance and legal professionals i've talked to don't feel comfortable there. but maybe your preferences are very different.

Is it just me or does it seems like the psf for tower 2 Northside Piers is meaningfully lower than the Edge as well as Toll Brother's own tower 1. I don't get it...

I mean granted the Edge is overpriced, I wonder why they haven't adjusted down tower 1 listings to match tower 2 if tower 2 should be an improvement and block some of tower 1's views.

I think that it may not look as polished as some areas of Manhattan, mostly uptown midtown and the much improved areas of union square, chelsea, etc, it is still a fun environment and maybe I am just an East Village, Williamsburg kind of guy but I have changed because I used to love the UES and now I kind of prefer the East Village.

I like the plethora of moderately priced restaurants, bars, etc and I get enough of the professional crowds during the week in midtown. I don't get overly excited about paying $14 a drink etc the way I used to when I first started going out in the City, in 1999.

Bottom line... nothing wrong with admitting it...Williamsburg is a very poor man's Manhattan. Stop lying to yourself if you think otherwise. Who would really WANT to ride the L train to Manhattan, instead of living in Manhattan. Come on be real. And furthermore, anything in Williamsburg is in Manhattan in 10 fold including food, music, bars, everything and anything.

And BJ who cares if you bought for the long term in Williamsburg, TANKER is right, you could have still bought long term and save 25% of your money and interest if you waited until about now.

Geez, no one says the sky is falling but prices of RE sure are. And NO it does not happen overnight, RE is the last to fall. So just give it time and try to sell your awesome Williamsburg apartment in March and then let me know how many buyers are jumping at the change to live in that great cultural center of NYC.

Hey people, I'm back! If you recall, I'm one of the early posters on this thread and I'm also a current contract holder at the Edge. As someone who put down a 10% deposit, I am worried about the value of my investment going down due to the veritable collapse of Wall Street. But it is not my intention to argue about the future of the NYC RE market (which, in my opinion, is pretty grim in the near-term) but to counter some of the ridiculous statements being made about Williamsburg by people who have obviously never been there. First of all, I can assure you that NOT EVERYONE, and not even 80% of the people, in Williamsburg would rather live anywhere in Manhattan. I would say that most people choose to live in Williamsburg because it is Williamsburg, and offers a unique variety of restaurants, shops, music venues, and general vibe not available elsewhere. It is most certainly not a "dump". Even if new construction condo prices were comparable (which they aren't), I would rather live in Williamsburg than the Upper East Side, Upper West Side, Midtown East, Midtown West, Chelsea, Harlem, Fidi, Murray Hill, Gramercy, and pretty much any neighborhood outside of the East Village, Noho, West Village, Nolita, Tribeca, and Soho. Also, my situation is a little unique in that I don't work in Manhattan and need to have a car, so Manhattan was not a viable choice anyway. The waterfront issue was also key for me, as I value a guaranteed, unobstructed view of the river, perhaps more than most, and there is no building (condo or co-op) in the Manhattan neighborhoods I mentioned I could get such a view, perhaps with the exception of the far, far West Village. Anyway, I just wanted to share some of my reasoning for choosing Williamsburg after a very long and deliberate search, and to dispel the notion that everyone in Williamsburg would rather live in Manhattan. I totally understand that some people don't like Williamsburg, and that's fine, but please understand that people in Williamsburg don't sit around moping because they can't afford to live in Manhattan.

And no, I am not a broker, and my job doesn't have anything to do with real-estate.

GoingDown, pretty clear you have an ax to grind here. Not sure what your problem with WB is (or the Financial District, as in the other thread - interesting pattern), but suffice it to say, if you don't like it, stay where you are. The rest of us are quite happy there, thankyouverymuch.

IMHO there will be a drop in prices, and it may be to 50% off. But as always, location, quality, layout, view, access to mass transit, local retail, overbuilding, will all be factors. As well as if the units were introduced overpriced to start with.

My guess is 20-50% depending on a combo off all these factors.

If Edge was introduced at a reasonable price, I would estimate possible decreases from 15% to best units, to 35% for worst units. On the Water / Hip neighborhood / close enough to transit. The area made it through this latest bubble with the ability to retain its desirability. It was a hidden treasure - some people WANT to be outside the city, while close. Unlike Bed Stuy / Deeper Williamsburg. LIC is a tough call.

Here's a construction update:

http://curbed.com/archives/2008/10/02/construction_watch_an_exclusive_look_inside_burgs_edge.php#reader_comments

bjw2103: GoingDown, pretty clear you have an ax to grind here. Not sure what your problem with WB is (or the Financial District, as in the other thread - interesting pattern), but suffice it to say, if you don't like it, stay where you are. The rest of us are quite happy there, thankyouverymuch.

No axe to grind I can assure you. I just speak the truth according to me. What I said of WB is true and what I said of FIDI is equally as true, in my own opinion. I know both places well, and think they have their strengths and weaknesses, but based on a downturn that will be about 25% at least in Manhattan RE values (according to experts), the over development of WB, the credit dry up and reform that is on the way, and many other factors, it very much seems that WB was a bad investment over the last 2 years. I am not sure how that is even an opinion based on what the market looks like right now.

I think that you are confusing my being a Bear in this market with my dislike for certain areas, which is not true.

GoingDown, fair enough, but it's tough to take anyone too seriously when they call people "losers" for buying and write things like "read it and weep." I totally agree with you though that the neighborhood has its share of strengths and weaknesses. I happen to believe more in its strengths for the long-term, whereas others don't - that's fine; I just take issue with the ad-hominem stuff.

For those interested in this development:

http://curbed.com/archives/2008/10/08/curbedwire_edge_sells_most_expensive_burg_apartment_ever_price_of_truffles_overstated.php

Re Ingeniuer's posting above, the sales agent has now officially lied about Douglaston's policy: they had insisted that no unit-combinations would be approved after August 1. Whoops. They've ditched that line . . .

Watch for the next steps before they start the big price cuts: they will begin covering closing costs (in spite of insisting they never would), and will start covering components of "preferred lenders'" mortgage costs, such as paying points to lock in rates today for closing in late 2009. Half-price storage units will also become free storage units.

ingenieur, you really believe that PR stunt. Who buys the best Yugo, when you can get a perfectly good used Bentley?

It's probably a family purchase . . . I'll do some digging and let you guys know . . .

Steve's assertion that you shouldn't consider the tax benefits of owning vs. renting borders on the delusional.

There are tax benefit to owning - factor that into your calculations, or stop performing absurd calculations based on voodoo maths.

From StreetEasy.com:

"Williamsburg's Edge making house calls
The Edge condominium in Williamsburg is now making house calls. Busy prospective buyers can call the sales office to set up a meeting with two sales agents at his or her home or office for a 45-minute presentation of the building."

Do they bring pizza?

Here's an idea - DECREASE PRICES. forget the housecalls.

"Decrease prices," stash? I don't think they've added that to their vocabulary yet. They're still in denial.

On streeteasy.com, there are no listings in contract. Is that because the bldg has not updated its information to the website, becuase if they have no one in contract, that is a very bad sign. I would expect quite a few people in contract, given that its been on the market for quite some time now. Anyone know what's going on here?

someone up above posted something about the listings in contract - I believe it was 10% sold through last June (according to the developer) and I haven't heard any updates since. Anyone have this info?

tanker, when they start tripping their loan covenants and are forced to pay more financing costs, they will reduce to get some cash in the door. only question is when.

From what I've heard from some bankers, new developments will go rental
before drastically reducing prices. Anyone have thoughts on this?

> From what I've heard from some bankers, new developments will go rental
> before drastically reducing prices.

That story is pretty much 6 months old at this point. Hell, NYTimes RE section did a cover story on it 3 months back.

Problem is, that is waaaay too much inventory and will kill rents. Then losing lots money each month to "wait" versus selling and getting at least some of your cash back isn't going to be a good tradeoff.

Jeff Levine, Douglaston CEO, claimed 110 contracts (out of 575 units) in October. Even if that figure wasn't exaggerated (they count contracts out and not signed), it's not good.

bjw103, I'm surprised you can stomach this. If I bought within the last two years, I don't think I can possibly stand to be in this board. It's torture. Plus not sure what benefits you get reading all the negativity out here since you already bought your place...unless you're a masochist. No offense intended, BTW :)

cleanslate, not sure what you're referring to (haven't posted to this thread in over a month), but if anyone considers reading this board "torture," they probably shouldn't be investing in anything of considerable value. There are people here with honest, relatively unbiased opinions, and there are others with their own, fairly transparent agendas - I can weed through that stuff pretty easily. I get lots of valuable information from this board, and I sometimes am able to provide some info from my experiences to others. If I want to be a masochist, well, there's other ways.

does anyone know if they will do any negotiating on their asking prices?

Spalding - to date, their policy has been no negotiations. Obviously, that has to change, or they will have an 80% empty complex.

See the article in the Dec 1 Crain's New York Business, "Williamsburg waterfront vacancies soar," which discusses The Edge. Sales have all but stopped.

> From what I've heard from some bankers, new developments will go rental
> before drastically reducing prices.

Developers are trying to rent new construction all over the burg at rates above what Williamsburg's traditional residents are used to paying. Unless they get people to migrate here from Manhattan, they'll have to lower their rents.

e.g. Northside Piers, Tower One, #6B, $3500/mo is their cheapest 2bdrm rental. The second bdrm is only 8'10" x 9'3" and living-dining room looks about 8' x 16'.

Incidentally, #5B sold for $752,990 on 9/19. That's approximately 18x annual rent. $5000/mo carrying costs for a view obstructed by tower #2 and no outdoor space.

Either way, the cheapest apartment is still pretty expensive by Williamsburger standards.

In terms of negotiations, the official policy may be no but I was talking to a broker there four months ago who indicated they'd be willing to negotiate. According to streeteasy, the seven closes since 9/30 have been 7.9%, 3.4%, 2.4%, 2.6%, 6.9%, 0.3% and 14.2% less than previously listed. That's an average of over 7%.

(oops, my comment on negotiation applies to northside, not the edge)

thanks tanker and djradon. i'll definitely hold out 'til something happens. a broker at NSP did mention the word "negotiable" about a month ago when we were there. waiting for edge to do the same...

"Obviously, that has to change, or they will have an 80% empty complex."

The thing is, when you count both Phase 1 and 2 at the Edge (1085 units not including low/middle income), it's still around 90% unsold. Not surprisingly, the sales reps seem to only mention the 575 Phase 1 units when discussing numbers.

I visited the sales office at NSP something like a year and a half ago and was told prices were negotiable as soon as I was handed the sheet. That was before Toll's 8-figure losses in multiple quarters, switch to non-union labor, and of course everything else that's occurred.

I've heard that they are willing to pay closing costs related to NY state and city transfer taxes, but are not negotiating any further. That was a month ago... Prices have got to come down. With the rising number of layoffs in the financial services sector, the sales guys at the Edge have no idea how much they're going to have to backtread on their position of no negotiation.

i would love them to tell me that their prices are "non-negotiatble" with a straight face. That's laughable - no disrespect to the Burg because I actually like it there but they have to realize 1)The world around them 2)They're on the wrong side of the river. I've been waiting to see some movement in prices (down, that is) and I'm shocked that there's been none.

stash - I lived through it a few months ago. The developers told me with a completely straight face that they would not negotiate on price or closing costs. The sales agent actually had the nerve to suggest to me that it was such a great investment that I could "flip it" if I wanted to! Such is the fantasyland these people live(d) in . . .

Now is the best time to buy at The Edge. Buy now or be priced out forever at The Edge. Go to The Edge and catch that falling knife.

Please realize that all of these developers will may have trouble maintaining their financing if they drop their prices. (why they prefer to help with closing costs and the like) - The amount available for financing is predicated on the total projected sales prices.

The park next to the Edge was just closed by the NY dept of parks and recreation (or whatever its called). It'll be a while before any of the amenities such as the waterfront promenade etc are finished. If the city cuts back on spending, that neighborhood could suffer.

sprp2000... at only 100 units closed, The Edge has 3 options as I see it with financing: 1) either cut prices and get those units sold and hope to break even on the project, 2) start renting them out, or 3) keep prices where they are, have an unsold building, and deliver massive losses for all investors involved with the project. am i missing something? seems like option 1 or 2 seem the most logical options.

Has anyone that has applied for affordable rental housing at Edge received any notificiation from the program?

chechris - where did you get your units sold info from? probably a combination of #1 and #2 are the only answer. No bank is going to finance a buyer's mortgage for a building that's 20% sold (or whatever 100 actually happens to be).

stash17... we've looked at this place... the # of units sold was from the sales office, and other posts on this board have corroborated that number. 575 units is the total inventory (#1 and #2). Exactly my point that with only 20% sold, they better start dropping prices or start thinking about renting them out.

Hi, any news on this project? Any idea if they are planning to lower their prices. I think it would be great both for sellers and buyers.

Any update on this project? I wonder if anyone's been able to negotiate something for under $700 psf?

Here's an update:

http://ny.therealdeal.com/articles/williamsburg-developer-holding-out-for-buyers

Another update"

http://www.brownstoner.com/brownstoner/archives/2009/02/apple_may_set_u.php

We are thinking of putting in an offer here or at another project on North 10 - do you think they will make delivery date and what happens if they do reduce prices?

designlauren - will be very interested in hearing your experience with them. We looked seriously there last August, and they refused to negotiate on any aspect of price, even closing costs. Their prices are now ludicrously over-market: they will have to come down a third or more. I hope you realize that you will have trouble getting financing unless they sell 70% of the units, and they are not even in the ballpark. More importantly, you risk losing your deposit if the project goes bust.

when i went to the sales office a couple of months ago, they expressed a willingness to negotiate a limited amount on some of the lower-floor, less desirable units. curious as well to see where prices in this building end up.

"More importantly, you risk losing your deposit if the project goes bust."
i do not think this is a serious risk as the deposit is usually held in an escrow account and you are protected in the event of a developer defaulting

nick26 - the following from an attorney's site:

"Deposits - With most builders, your deposit does NOT go into an escrow account. Your deposit goes into a general fund that the builder may use for any reason. If something happens to the builder, you could lose your entire deposit. Some builders provide you the option of an escrow account, but they generally charge you a fee or eliminate incentives they have promised. If you think your deposit money is safe, just ask buyers of homes with builders that have filed for bankruptcy."

regarding deposits -- it's just a matter of putting a rider on your contract to protect yourself, and the Edge developers have been willing to offer you that peace of mind

not sure what is most typical, but i have seen a couple of instances where the money is held in an escrow account and is released at the title closing. alternatively, the agreements give the sponsor the option to post a bond in lieu of an escrow account. my understanding is that in both cases, this was not a negotiated item and was offered up by the seller.

in this market, i would assume that an escrow account is yours if you want it.

"streakeasy, it's actually just over 24% from Oct 07 (and it was over 25% after the big drop on Monday), but this is nitpicking."

Ah, remember those days? When the "big drop" was only the one that put us down 25%. And people were still buying in Williamsburg...

nyc10022, I do remember. Now it's 39%, and people are still buying in Williamsburg. The volumes aren't what they were in 05-07 though, that's for sure.

Let's roll back the tape, shall we? 9 months ago I wrote "Anyone who knew that an apartment would drop 25 % before recovering years later would obviously have chosen to rent until the drop had played out . . . Buying at a peak is opportunity cost - it is real money", to which bjw2103 responded: "your assertion is laughable. Furthermore, values have yet to drop '25 %'."

Welcome to reality, bjw2103.

bjw2103 now helpfully informs us that "People are still buying in Williamsburg." At least bjw2103 has shifted gears from sanctimony to banality. After all, who can argue with "People are still buying in Williamsburg"?

tanker, it's great that you feel the need to go after people on here, rather than, you know, engage in interesting discussion, but I have to ask - what's your point here? Where are you reading sanctimony in anything I've written? If you insist on rehashing posts from back then, let's revisit exactly what I wrote (and not some slyly edited, out-of-context cut-and-paste job):

"tanker, it's amazing that people judge other people's investments so blindly here, which they (hopefully) wouldn't do with anything else. People have many reasons for buying and there are so many individual variables in play that your assertion is laughable. Furthermore, values have yet to drop "25+%" and although that's always a possibility, I'll remind you that the Dow has already dropped by more than that."

Indeed, I wouldn't say values have dropped 25+%. Yes, you've got a few big drops in asking prices at the first NSP tower, but asking prices aren't always equatable to value. No question prices are definitely lower and in many cases deals are getting done at lower price points now than they were 2 years ago. As for the "anyone would obviously have chosen to rent," I think my point still stands - you can't make such a sweeping generalization when it comes to a decision that relies on so many different personal factors. "Welcome to reality"? Now THAT's sanctimonious.

the point of this site is to discuss investment in RE--that your flawed opinion from months ago was cited today as an example of your poor prior judgement seems a reasonable post--i think there is no upside in NYC RE for at least another year, and i see a distinct possibility that prices are down much more than already, next year--feel free to cite this post in a year

and this is certainly not a personal attack on anyone who owns or has recently bought NY RE--i rent--they chose not to--they may be wasting money--i may be missing the boat--such is the nature of markets--its not personal

I see, bjw2103. So you calling "laughable" my call 9 months ago that prices would drop 25% is fine, but my pointing out that you said it shows my need "to go after people on here."

As for what "individual variables" might motivate a person to buy rather than rent if he had foreseen a 25% price drop, that still eludes me. But what do I know, I'm an economist, not a psychotherapist.

Ubottom, which of my opinions is/was "flawed"? What judgment did I make that was "poor"? I was trying to explain to tanker that claiming that "anyone would obviously have chosen to rent" is a bit ignorant of the many factors that influence people's decisions. I agree, this doesn't need to get personal at all, but calling someone sanctimonious for no apparent reason starts to creep in that direction, don't you think?

"So you calling "laughable" my call 9 months ago that prices would drop 25% is fine, but my pointing out that you said it shows my need "to go after people on here.""

Sorry if it wasn't clear - I meant that your claim that anyone would obviously have rented was laughable. I fully admitted, even back then, that large drops in value were certainly possible.

"As for what "individual variables" might motivate a person to buy rather than rent if he had foreseen a 25% price drop, that still eludes me. But what do I know, I'm an economist, not a psychotherapist."

Problem is, you're applying a somewhat random figure, presumably from the collective market, to an individual's decision, which ignores people's ability to negotiate good deals for themselves (and this does happen). I have never advocated buying blindly, but there are plenty of people for whom owning makes much more sense, just as there are people for whom owning is the clear way to go.

A stirring discussion on the Edge guys. Thanks. It would be nice if this thread would stay somewhat on topic (talking about the building Edge) instead of becoming a playground fight.

BJW tells us that "people are still buying in Williamsburg"

I guess they're doing a darned good job of keeping it quiet . . .

http://gawker.com/5313251/williamsburg-the-new-epicenter-of-the-housing-crisis

Good luck, Edge.

tanker, are you petrfitz' alter ego or something? I read the NY Mag piece - it's got a lot of truth to it, but it certainly paints a grimmer picture than what I think is reality (I'm sure you think this can't happen, especially not at a magazine that might need to sell more copies). If you want to get down to the facts, look at the number of closings, that's all there is to it. 58 in the last 60 days. Not record-breaking, but as I said, people are still buying in Williamsburg. Get over yourself.

"Get over yourself" is so Valleyburg . . .

Ok, tanker, thanks for the awesome contributions.

As someone who has recently started looking in the Manhattan and Williamsburg real estate markets, do you all feel that The Edge is still overpriced and has a way to go? How many units have they sold? Has pricing dropped? I would think that they would be somewhat open to negotiation given the market. I'm debating whether to get a larger apartment with much more amenities in Williamsburg like The Edge, or get something not as nice in Manhattan for a similar price.

Any advice for a newbie would be appreciated.

ichian01, I do think the Edge is considerably overpriced. I would guess that at some point they'll have to lower asking prices on many units, especially those with "lesser" views (undoubtedly a major selling point here). It's just very unclear at this point when that could happen; they're playing things pretty close to the vest, especially considering they haven't published how many units are in contract or sold. It doesn't hurt to reach out to them and see how open they are to negotiation at this point though. If your timeline is long enough and you can wait a while to close/move, you should be able to get a better deal than most. There's just a lot of uncertainty right now. Good luck!

ichian - I had an "in" with the developer, so my wife and I visited a year ago. Then, they were adamant that they were not negotiating with anyone on price, closing costs - nothing. So we walked. More recent postings from others indicate that they've softened on "less desirable" units. But, personally, I can't see the point in living there unless you have the river/Manhattan views.

Having just proceeded to contract on a UES co-op at considerably less $ per square foot, it is my view that Edge will have to come down roughly 30% from 2008 prices. Knowing the developer as I do, they will hold out as long as they possibly can (maybe even a bit beyond . . .). Do bear in mind that financing will be hard or impossible to come by if they don't sell 70%. Someone else may have more up-to-date intel on what they've sold so far, but late last year it was about 15%. I find it hard to imagine it could be much higher today, given how the market has fared since then.

I don't agree with bjw on much (and often I have little idea what he's yammering about), but I echo his "good luck" . . .

tanker, please, we may disagree on a few things about real estate (though not that much apparently, as your last post echoes a lot of what I said immediately before it), but there's no need for the snide comments every time.

I don't necessarily agree that there no point in living there unless you have river/Manhattan views, but there has to be a corresponding price point if you don't have them. I totally agree about the financing threshold; who knows how long they'll drag construction out for, but perhaps they're counting on the requirements being eased a bit. They almost have to if they don't want to rent at least some of the units, I think.

I purchased an unit in April 2008. Unfortunately, I think I did pay a high price given the market condition back then.

They have 3 preferred lenders. They want us to go through their preferred mortgage lender in order to get mortgage contingency. But I haven't heard from Country Wide for a long time after I submitted all the paper. Does anyone know what is going on right now? It seems that I can never get a response from the developer or the lender. Not sure any buyer is reading this discussion.

Interesting interview in today's NYT with Jeff Levine, the Edge developer's president:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/19/realestate/19sqft.html?_r=1&ref=realestate

The highlights -

* He claims to have sold "over 20%", virtually all of which in 2008. Last year, I know for a fact that they were consistently overstating their sales. In any case, they were slotted last year to start closings this fall, so 20% at this point is a disaster.

* He claims they "have not reduced prices at all", though they "help with closing costs." Last year, they were adamant about not "helping" with closing costs - not a dime.

* He says their "debt level on the meter is quite full. I would be a fool not to be concerned about debt coming due . . ."

* He says the biggest barrier to recovery is "financing - the banks are not lending" (particularly, one would presume, in a development which has only sold 20% of it units just a few months south of the completion target).

this building helped destroy the williamsburg waterfront not build it, and i hate it.

tanker, thanks for the link. Pretty interesting interview - he's certainly an optimist, but who knows how long they'll be able to hold out on full pricing. We have no way of verifying the "1 or 2 sales per week" tidbit unfortunately.

Thanks for the info guys. My personal dilemma is whether to get an apartment in Manhattan or get something in the Edge with much nicer amenities/finishes for the same price. However, the difficulty in getting financing given the low occupacy was something I didn't think of (they told me almost 30% filled!). They are targeting move-ins later this year I think...although I don't know how much of the amenities will be complete by then.

What are your guys' thoughts on the Manhattan real estate front? Still coming down? Good time? New York real estate market hold up much longer while the rest of the US was crumbling...

I know I can't call the bottom, but wondering if you guys here feel like there's another significant leg down to go.

Thanks.

ichian - having looked at The Edge a year ago, we just bought in Manhattan. Asking prices in Yorkville, where we concentrated our search, are down 20-25% from last year, with closing prices generally coming in at around 10% under the ask. So all in all, we're looking at a 25% or so fall. (In our case, we found a place after 2 months of viewing - about 18 units - and moved quickly and aggressively, 2% under the ask, on a unit we felt was perfect for us and priced well below comparable units.) I'm an economist, and not at all bullish on the New York real estate market, but I feared the risk of mortgage rates jumping substantially from their current levels if and when the inflation and dollar scare materializes. So I decided to take the risk on buying before the market hit bottom in order to lock in an affordable mortgage. Having said that, if I hadn't believed we had gotten a very attractive price I would definitely have kept looking. There should be plenty of new inventory in the fall . . .

Re The Edge, my advice, based on knowing personally the mindset of top people at the developer, is to put the ball back in their court. They are the most bullish developer out there, and won't make material concessions on price until they feel their backs are to the wall. That won't come until later this year. So tell them what you'd be interested in, and that they are welcome to contact you if and when such a unit becomes available at a more realistic market price (which I would define as 25-30% below their opening prices), with closing costs covered on their end, watertight legal guarantees on the security of your deposit, and a firm mortgage contingency clause. You will need a good and aggressive lawyer to review the offering plan and negotiate terms. Buying new construction in Williamsburg these days in not for the faint of heart . . .

ichian, totally agree with tanker here on all fronts. Despite a surprising amount of recent activity, I still think time is on your side here, so I wouldn't be in any particular rush to buy, though I'd already be on the lookout for good deals. If you really want a place at the Edge, his advice is spot-on: be courteous, but firm, and get the conversation going now; it can't hurt. Make sure you get a good lawyer no matter what.

tanker, congrats on the new place! Yorkville is a great little neighborhood.

bjw - thanks for the nice words . . .

Thanks for all your advice guys. Might look again at Manhattan, now the dilemma is rent vs. buy. Seems like anything that will yield a total monthly cost (mortgage + maint/RE tax) that is remotely close to my current rent (which is in a luxury rental building in a popular neighborhood) is much poorer condition than my current apartment. Seems like I will either have to fork over a lot more to get something similar, or accept something that is much more basic (not as nice building and apartment).

Does that make sense?

ichian01, it's usually cheapter to rent than it is to buy, although many just HATE the feeling of not owning. So, saving money should not be the primary motive for buying. Of course, you may need to speak to your CPA about the tax benefits associated w/ carrying a mortgage.

Does anyone have info on when closings will begin for this development?

ingenieur, there's probably no way of knowing at this point, since construction isn't done yet. I'm sure if you asked, they'd give you an estimate, but it would most likely be optimistic. Random, semi-informed guess: 10-12 months from now minimum.

Thanks bjw2103.

I thought construction was almost done? Do you think this dev will go the way of NSP (ie, huge price cuts). Or do you think they'll be able to weather the storm.