Streeteasy Mahattan 2Q08 Report

Thanks for this - much more informative than the sugarcoated versions from miller/brokerages

Closings down 44% since last year...
Average price down over 10% compared to last quarter (and YOY as well)
Median price down 10% compared to last quarter...

EddieWilson, the report does say that about closings, but not about prices. Where are you getting that data from?

Good stuff streeteasy, thank you.

this is useful but street easy really should put in a caveat in the report because their info is not 100% accurate. I've seen closings, including my own take months to show up on this site, due probably to lag time in the Acris info system. Not saying its completely wrong, but it states only 8 coop closings above $1MM in the quarter. If they were off by 1 or 2, that would significantly change the percentage drop they claim YOY on same.

Note that the overall market page (3) is mistakenly copied from the Upper Manhattan page (11), and does not actually represent the overall market. Streeteasy - who's editing these things?

excellent report. Thanks

You get what you pay for. All of these reports are free. I would think with all the Wall Street layoffs they could hire a junior analyst to clean them up.

No report is perfect. Although, the street easy report does sound more gloomy than the Miller Samuel one.

Also, this is Street Easy's first report, so you have to give them time to work out the "bugs." Miller Samuel has been doing these reports for over a decade so they have more experience.

I always hate Manhattan price reports, and this one is no different.

According to this data, the average price of condos downtown (below 34th Street, where I work) is up 27.0% since last quarter, and the median price is up 39.5%.

Does anyone on this board *really* think the market's that strong? In my mind, it's much more about the increased penetration of Streeteasy, and the difference in the data sets it can see.

My sense from the field is that downtown condos are trading flattish from Q1.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

Also from Miller Samuel - interesting to see how long Manhattan real estate can stay in the tank. Despite continuing inflation, nominal real estate prices were flat to down for a good five years. "Real" (inflation adjusted) prices tumbled.

Manhattan

Manhattan
Co-ops
Average Price Per Sq Ft
1989 - 2008

Studio 1-Bedroom 2-Bedroom 3-Bedroom 4 Bedroom All
2007 828 890 1,107 1,411 2,414 1,006
2006 773 813 993 1,324 1,949 924
2005 737 772 931 1,254 1,817 870
2004 580 620 737 1,024 1,506 696
2003 505 560 652 988 1,373 623
2002 517 455 597 1,036 1,149 562
2001 230 409 406 67 18 351
2000 264 461 450 63 22 387
1999 209 434 394 59 25 345
1998 287 622 490 70 34 463
1997 154 438 436 62 26 367
1996 89 379 438 69 32 346
1995 51 265 343 58 19 262
1994 28 166 281 60 25 197
1993 25 122 202 42 23 142
1992 46 247 366 70 40 259
1991 55 233 341 67 39 240
1990 105 220 236 49 23 186
1989 131 267 279 48 27 225

Check out your own neighborhood on their web site.

front_porch, agree with you about the limited usage of these reports, but if you're going to look at them, I'm already inclined to value Streeteasy over a Corcoran, etc. I think this report makes it pretty clear that because of all the new development closings, the price increases are more a reflection of the market several months, if not a year ago.

bjw, I agree that they've hedged by pointing out that this is a snapshot of the market months and months ago, but how does that help buyers, sellers, and renters in their decision-making?

you can't fly back in time and bet on the Super Bowl.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

I agree with front porch in the sense that there are always methodological mistakes in these analyses. That said, whereas Corcoran/DE/Halstead etc. have an incentive to make "mistakes", Streeteasy, while prone to errors like all others, doesn't have an agenda. Or on the surface has no reason for an agenda. Just a matter of working the kinks out.

Hats off to Streeteasy - your report should help everyone cut through the broker bullshit. My guess is these reports will be very widely read in the future. Would love to see it on a monthly basis too.

Topper, I see the data you got on the Miller Samuel website too. But I question if its correct. I don't believe that in 2001 the average 4 bedroom co-op sold for $18 psf. All the 3 and 4 bedroom number before 2002 look off.

Can anyone explain the tables on page 3? I must be missing something, none of that info can be close to correct.

ah bjw, I see your post now. I knew something was wrong.

"According to this data, the average price of condos downtown (below 34th Street, where I work) is up 27.0% since last quarter, and the median price is up 39.5%."

"Does anyone on this board *really* think the market's that strong?"

Anyone who has been following Manhattan real estate for more than 5 minutes knows that these numbers are being highly skewed by the upper end like the Plaza and 15 CPW.

when did they move the Plaza and 15 CPW below 34th St?

alpine they are probably referring to new developments. For example 101 Warren Street most likely lifted values up a bit.

There are plenty of high end buildings downtown that are skewing the prices, like 40 Bond Street.

There are still lots of apartments going into contract. Maybe not like the old days, of course, but the reality is that properties are selling. I'm not a bull or a bear, just someone trying to find the right apartment at the right price. But recently, more than a third of my Streeteasy Updates are informing me of signed contracts and I am looking under 2 million, so I'm not running with the big dogs. I feel that the market is getting stale. I see the same listings over and over again. When something new comes on that is priced correctly, it seems to be selling relatively quickly. Meanwhile, I'm waiting on the sidelines with a lot of other folks. I'm wondering if, when prices do fall significantly, the pent up demand anticipating this fall will swoop in and, in effect, buffer it. Maybe it will be more in waves than in a sudden crash. Any thoughts?

NYRENewbie- This downturn just started. Be patient and you will be getting an apartment that is currently listed at 3.5M for 2M by this time next year. There is nothing positive about this market at all. Just use common sense. Do you think that we hit a bottom? We're just getting started.

>> Closings down 44% since last year...
>> Average price down over 10% compared to last quarter (and YOY as well)
>> Median price down 10% compared to last quarter...

> EddieWilson, the report does say that about closings, but not about prices.
> Where are you getting that data from?

The section "overall market" with "recorder prices"...

Note Eddie, that "overall market" page was not actually the overall market, it is Upper Manhattan, Harlem etc.

I do not think $3.5 million apartments will be $2.5 million by this time next year. Maybe $3 million if you are lucky.

I think, NYRENewbie, that what happens will depend on interest rates. It is a very typical pre-election psychology for buyers to dither, and in this current pre-election cycle, we have seen a sudden and unfortunate rise in rates.

Will that continue? No one knows. But it's important for you to be attuned to, because if prices go down but the cost of money goes up, you're not gaining anything by waiting.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

"...if prices go down but the cost of money goes up, you're not gaining anything by waiting."

Ali, I have to respectfully disagree. For the medium-term buyer, if the carrying cost is equal but the purchase price is lower, assuming you hold long enough for market recovery and appreciation, you will make a greater profit at resale. In the long term (my case), lower principal means an easier time paying down the loan ahead of schedule, and the possibility of a refi if rates go down.