Mortgage stops lending-

dco - do you haver any value to add or can all you do is copy and paste obvious data points?

We know the economy is in bad shape. Its obvious. Pointing out the obvious doesnt make you smart.

Why dont you tell us how one can make money in todays real estate market.

You offer all bad news and zero insight.

petrfit - "Why don't you tell us how one can make money in today's real estate market". No problem. It's actually simple and everyone can do it. Don't buy in this market, it's much to early and the downside for risk is 99.9%. Please read that again. I said it's "much to early". What I didn't say was that it will be forever. Someday in the future, when prices correct and it's financially beneficial to buy rather then rent, it will be a good time to buy again.

I'm glad you asked "do you have any value to add or can all you do is copy and paste obvious data points"? The truth is I have given many reasons for my predictions based on various market indicators. During which several members of a "crew" (I just like that word) have criticized me as not being insightful or knowledgeable of the markets both NYC RE and Wall street. So I have decided that since my analysis has been downgraded to junk (Much like Toll Brothers) by the crew. I have decided to just post information that is written by another that I happen to agree with and supports my analysis. This way when disagreeing with me they will also be insinuating that the publisher of the information also has Junk status and can't be relied upon. I may as well take someone down with me. LOL

Of course as you pointed out it appears that everything I post is negative and you would be 100% correct. I see nothing good at all occurring at this point regarding both WS and RE. It's just going to get much worse. I know how people feel about that but it's just my opinion and seems to be the one being supported everyday. And yes someday things will get better, however today is not that day.

dco - what exactly are your economics or real estate market qualifications? You have no intelligent analysis. You spew baseless opinions based on news bites or internet stories. You obviously have to educational or analytical experience in these areas. Stop pretending to be something you are not.

petrfitz- Take a look at the post above by LICComment. Like I said and it only took 28 minutes.

You see I'm also good at predicting human behavior.

hmm yeah you are "insightful" by predicting tough economic times. You must be the only one thinking this.

Also your "dont buy in this market advice" is the same as all the doom and gloomers are saying. It is also not a way of making money. It is a way of losing money - on rent on lost opportunity.

There is the most opportunity in the RE market than there has even been - and you are missing it.

petrfitz- Saving money is not exactly losing money. Perhaps your mother never taught you this. My doom and gloom has saved me a lot of money over the months and when the risk shifts to positive I'll make even move when the opportunity presents itself. It's the lack of understanding risk that caused this mess in the first place. You have to manage risk. By answering this question you can see how you stand in this market.

Is NYC RE more likely to decline in the next 12 months or increase? Just answer that question and you will know if you are taking on more risk then the market is indicating.

I've been "losing" so much money buying milk all these years...might as well buy a cow, right?

Nevermind the transaction costs, the financing costs, the tying up of a down payment, the maintenance costs, the taxes and the general odor. Dammit, I'm going to buy that cow, no matter the price! I'd be a fool to do otherwise! Could I wait until cow prices become more rational relative to incomes and other facets of the economic picture? Sure, but why would I want to do that? I can buy that cow today!

"There is the most opportunity in the RE market than there has even been"

Indeed! There are many opportunities to lose your money in the market right now. You just have to pick how you want to lose it and how fast, that is the hard part.

east_cider- I say buy the cow and sell the steaks for twice what you paid for the cow.

i agree with LIC's commnent about you dco but totally disagree with LIC's RNC toe the line even thought it will bring about your on destruction mentality.

"There is the most opportunity in the RE market than there has even been"

petrfitz, I'm very interested to hear about these opportunities... specifically, how these opportunities are the "most than there has even been".

you sure that it's the "most than there has even been"? as in, better opportunities than let's say 2003?

please let us in on the secret!

east_cider, mutual funds and asset managers have been forced to report returns net of fees after years of ripping off clients. Maybe one day the real estate market will do the same. Imagine if a realator had to produce a chart showing how long it would take for a buyer to break even after taxes and transaction costs using a scale of average annual returns say 4%, 6%, 8%? With the Next Best Alternative Investment being the risk free (fed funds) rate?

Maybe real estate wouldn't be such a casino. I know there are people who work in real estate for a living. They have a built in intuition for what will make money and what will not. The vast majority of the people need to understand that a 15% increase in home value does guarantee you made money.

IndyMac only made Alt A loans. Not like there's amarket for those right now.

totallyanonymous- Not really the point but I guess that's the spin.

I wasn't spinning anything guy, I am stating a fact. There is no secondary market for subprime or Alt A loans right now so its a no brainer that an indymac is exiting the market.

totally anonymous, exiting a market and firing half of your staff are two different things. Analyst price target is $0.

And I meant to say "a 15% increase in home value does NOT guarantee you made money".

the market they were in was doomed to failure from the get go. we are back to traditional mortgages for the foreseeable future, thus static to stagnant re growth....until the next market frenzy.

An Alt A mortgage provider in California folds and this is dco's evidence that all financing everywhere has dried up and the market in NYC will crash 50% or more. Genius.

MMAfia - yes better opportunity than 2003 - less competition, more inventory to choose from.

You dont get it do you? That is why you are a renter.

"MMAfia - yes better opportunity than 2003 less competition, more inventory to choose from"

BUT petrfitz, the probability of appreciation was much higher back in 2003 than it is now- that powerful appreciation rate back then would entirely eclipse your "less competition, more inventory" analysis, not to mention the abundance of EASY MONEY available back in 2003.

Sorry- I simply do not believe that now is the BEST TIME EVER as you posted above to make money in RE.

Call me crazy, but that's my opinion.

Also, I want to clarify that I do believe it is still *possible* to make money in Manhattan RE right now.

I just don't agree with petrfitz's idea that now is the best time EVER as he posted and defended.

Apparently, I don't get "it". Can someone else who gets "it" explain to me why now is the best time EVER?

Because the NYC RE Marketing Machine says it the best time ever. Who are you to question them.