Folks, i've just started my hunt in LIC. the only place i've been to is Star Tower, and to be quite honest, i was quite impressed with it. pricing was coming in around $675-700 psf for a 1BR. my only problem is, i don't really know the neighborhoods within LIC too well -- actually, i don't know them at all. i'm reading what i can from the threads on here, but there's so much b.s. drivel, that it's hard to weed out the informative stuff from the b.s. ... so i'd like your help with some quick answers to some basic questions:
1) does $675 psf sound reasonable compared to similar buildings in the area?
2) does anyone have any juicy details about the Star Tower in particular? percentage sold? developer financing? etc.
3) does anyone have any info about Tishman's Gotham Center project, which is supposed to be built across the street?
4) i understand that the queens plaza area is fairly "ghetto". but i'd like to hear some pros and cons about it all.
thanks for your help and insight. any other words of wisdom to persuade or dissuade me from a purchase would be appreciated!
$700,000 for a condo in Queens Plaza- just blocks from the biggest housing project in the city. Take a walk around the area and count the strip clubs. When you're done with that, look for the hookers strolling the plaza. That area is a dump. I understand that they have these "great plans" for the area. That's great, the problem is that their asking price's are as if the area has already completed its transformation. Not to mention that the "transformation" is probably in jeopardy considering the credit problems and the lack of TAXES the city will encounter in the next few years. BIG gamble for this area.
Look at VIEW 59. 1/3 of their units never sold and about the same are for rent in the building. Bad location and way over priced. AT $400 sq/ft perhaps. NO way Jose.
dco, a while back didn't someone start a post about how you and a few others have made this board quite unenjoyable? You then stated you were going to take a long break or something to that effect. What happened to that? You spew an awful lot of garbage, and a lot of it is pretty off base.
In the spirit of full disclosure, I do work in the industry. I am not, however, a real estate agent nor am I associated with a real estate agency. I am not particularly bullish or bearish about the market. We are clearly going through a recession, but quality homes are still selling and I firmly believe they will continue to.
I don't know too much about the Star Tower, sorry dumber. I do know it took Rowe a little while to get their financing, but it appears to be in place now.
dco, with regards to view 59, you are incorrect. According to my friends at Evans, 1/3 of the building was never actually put on the market. When they hit roughly 70% sold the sales office was dismantled. The goal was to release the remainder of the units when the building was constructed. During that time period they decided it would be more lucrative to rent the remainder of the units in order to keep a consistent cash flow coming from the building.
actually, the unit i'm looking at comes in at a little more than $400K. and it would be an investment unit (ie, not to live in). it's not a great view, but at those prices and 10% down, renting at $2300/month would almost pay for itself. and though i don't know the area at all, it doesn't take a genius to see that when i got off the subway stop, the place seemed pretty dead. but it seems to me that it could attract SOMEONE that works midoffice or something across the bridge and is looking for a quick ride home. am i way off base here? i was thinking of holding onto the place for maybe 5 years and then unwinding. but really, i'm only thinking about it because the numbers really work -- assuming that i can get $2300/month. does that sound reasonable?
Dumber, if you are looking to purchase a unit to rent out... I think the buildings closer to the waterfront or along Jackson ave would be a safer investment. You may pay a slighly higher price per square foot but if the unit comes with a view it would be worth it. The Jackson ave area and waterfront of LIC is much better. The area with the star tower is not going to be a neighborhood untill they renovate queens plaza which they have been put off for quite some time and it still may not become a neighborhood. I think if you are going to hold a unit in LIC for at least 5 years it will be worth you wile. Dont listen to DCO he definatly does not like LIC as he spends much of his time trying to spread the word of what a bad investment it is. ( no offense DCO ) you are entitled to your opion. I have been in NYC for 20+ years and through different markets and I do believe that LIC would be a good inverstment over time. If I were making this purchase I would not buy in the area of the star tower.
I was in the same position as you a few months ago, that being looking for a one bedroom investment property. I was looking for a pre developed building in a pre developed area so I could get a discount on what in five years would be a gold mine. I found it after hours and hours of research.
I will attached a link that is a summation of my research and if you are really serious about finding an investment property I don't think you could do better. Go to the building and see for yourself, the sales office is down the block. If you check out each attachment you will agree that the potential is amazing.
Scroll down to second comment posted by Karl entitled "Toren and Downtown Brooklyn".
Junkman, briefly read your post. wow, you're one hell of a salesman! :)
SSNYC, thanks for the info/opinion. yes, from what i can tell on the discussion boards here, i guess i'm supposed to be looking at 5SL, powerhouse, EC3, foundry, and a few other buildings with acronyms that i still have to investigate. these are, i assume, all by the waterfront area that you are mentioning. but the thing is, i really don't think i could afford anything more than the $400K that i mentioned. so it's almost a moot point. also, the star tower isn't going to be done till "late 2009", which i assume means Q1 of 2010. and that timing, for a whole host of personal reasons, is actually quite perfect for me. conversely, the units in the other buildings (a) cost more than $400K, and (b) would need to be closed fairly soon. ... (am i right in these assumptions?)
these are all more reasons why Star appealed to me.
plus, i've read that Tishman's Gotham Center is definitely green-lighted. they probably won't be done till 2010 or 2011, and then another year or two before we see some signs of "neighborhood" spring up (eg, grocery stores, shops). but if i can get rent to practically cover my mortgage (and common charges are exceptionally low in this building!), then i don't see why i can't wait out till 2012 or whenever.
i'd like it for people to continue to dump cold water on my fantasy, as i like to hear the downsides. but does anyone want to chime in and tell me that i'm not *totally* off base here?
dco, just visited the place again today. rented a car and drove all over the place. though i didn't perform a very systematic browsing of the neighborhood, i couldn't find the hundreds of strip clubs you mentioned. can't speak for the hookers, since daylight probably isn't their shift, ha. the housing project, i couldn't find either, but i did hear that it is north of the train tracks, which seems to be quite a different area from even the edge of the south side of the tracks that the Star Tower is located at. and FYI, we're talking about $400K, not $675K.
I can tell you this - the last person in the world you want to take advice from regarding LIC is dco. He is bitter that he can't afford to buy there so he constantly puts down the area. He also makes some of the most inaccurate statements on this board.
If I were you, I would compare Star to Crescent Club. Star is probably in a slightly better location and in the long run may be the better building, but it is hard to say at this point. Look at rentals in Purves, that also may give you and indication of what to expect from Star, which by all accounts looks like a more upscale building.
LICComment - is your entire existence dedicated to trying to undermine DCO? That is literally ALL you do. It's getting quite pathetic. Look, I don't agree with DCO, but can you say anything of value in your posts at all besides "don't listen to DCO"? You sound like DCO's younger, petulant, more ignorant sibling.
And tell me, LICComment, why anyone would assume that someone named LICComment has anything objective to say about LIC.
Btw LICComment, I was in Greenpoint and Williamsburg last weekend, came back through LIC and I have to say it is still a painful, lonely, desperate place. Greenpoint and Williamsburg are downright Parisian compared to LIC. Even Sunnyside has more flavor than LIC.
I should correct myself - "I don't agree with DCO" should read "I don't ALWAYS agree with DCO". I do agree with DCO that LIC is an overbuilt wasteland.
dumberthanyou- I think that you should ignore my advice and buy several units. The funny thing is, I can understand why someone would buy a place to live. I don't agree that it's a good time to do that now, however I understand the mentality. What I can't comprehend is why anyone in their right mind would buy an investment property in this climate. The sole purpose of an investment property is to make money. If you buy tomorrow, by the time you go to close you would have lost money already. So do yourself a favor and ignore me and follow the advice of the "RE Marketing Machine". Good Luck.
I never said hundreds of strip clubs. How many did you find? And as the projects go if you missed them then I would advise you to rent the car again and ask for the tour.
SSNYC "If I were making this purchase I would not buy in the area of the star tower."
And this is different from my opinion how? I also wouldn't buy in this area. Nor would I buy anywhere in the city at this time. So don't assume that I have some vendetta about LIC. It's got nothing to do with LIC. I just use LIC to illustrate how crazy the market had gotten. It's the whole city that will see substantial decreases.
faustus, you obviously have trouble reading if you never see any of my other posts on other subjects. You may want to check your eyesight too if you went by the Queens West area at the waterfront and thought it looked painful and desolate. Don't lash out at me because you and dco have no credibility.
LICComment - I have no trouble reading your posts, which is of course why I find them so empty of substance.
Frankly, I have no particular desire to engage you at all, except that you perpetually attack others saying they have "no credibility" while providing nothing of substance to refute their claims.
While DCO and stevejhx may be gadflies on this site, they at least back up their arguments with data/facts. You've never offered an iota of substance against their claims or analyses.
You always say "read my posts" but there's nothing ever there.
Here's a challenge: save us all the time and demonstrate how one of your prior posts is "substantive".
What substance were in your posts faustus? Hmm, none. dco and steve don't back up their arguments with data or facts. They misconstrue news articles to mislead others. When people say absolutely ridiculous, unintelligent things, like the LIC waterfront is desolate, I point out who stupid it is. When the discussion revolves around substantive data and research, I provide that as part of the discussion. You and dco said dumb things and I pointed it out to correct it. Again, don't get angry when you say something foolish and it gets pointed out.
I guess you missed the post above where I pointed out other buildings near where Star is being built as good present comparisons.
hmm... why exactly is it ridiculous to say that the waterfrnt is desolate? i live on the waterfront, and you'll be lucky to see five people at any one time on the four block stretch between avalon and eastcoast. that said, i agree that waterfront is exponentially better than queens plaza area.. housing projects and train tracks do not gentrify, and they do not go away. from an investment perspective, unless you get a steep discount (whcih i think you are), there is no question.
You say: "dco and steve don't back up their arguments with data or facts. They misconstrue news articles to mislead others", but yet again, you have no specifics. You can't point to anything specific that DCO or steve said that "misconstrues or misleads" nor have you ever credibly refuted any of their arguments.
All you can say is "They misconstrue! They mislead!" No specifics, no nothing. If your posts were a 3rd grade paper, you would get an F.
You do realize you just proved my point, right? Or are you so obtuse you missed that too?
cb, I don't know where you live, but whenever I am there on the weekends I see lots of people at the piers, in the plaza, at the cafe, walking around, at Water Taxi Beach, etc. To call the area "painful and desolate" is either ignorant or dishonest. And tell everyone on the west side of Manhattan or in the Lower East Side and East Village that condos can't be near housing projects. Also, the developments off Jackson Avenue are not right next to projects and the Queens West area is not near any projects. The projects are actually off the water north of the Queensboro Bridge. Yes they are in the area, but you make it sound like the building is directly across the street.
faustus, you are boring me. In posts where dco or steve cite to a news article or some theoretical analysis, I discuss the specifics. I've discussed with dco different views and analysis of the overall market, how new developments work, correlations to Manhattan, etc. dco and I may take some funny cracks at one another here and there but we seem to be able to have some civil back and forth, so I don't know why you are getting so bent out of shape. I've disputed steve's numbers with his 12-15x rent ratio analysis and explained the use of marginal and effective tax rates when determining the mortgage deduction benefit, and I have weighed in on many other discussions.
Did you even finish high school, because your argument is so low-level.
dco, will you finally stop with your silly comments about View's rental units? I tried warning you about how foolish you sound with these statements. They sell 70% of their units in a short period of time, close the sales office and decide to sell the rest after the building is completed and you somehow think this is a negative.
LICComment- There are eleven units listed for rent in that building. So what your telling me is that people want to buy these units, but the developer doesn't want to take their money.
The truth is that there is no demand. No one wants to pay these prices. Just about every development in LIC, sold 90% of their sold units in 2007. Unless you have great credit and 20-25% down payment your going to have an almost impossible time getting a mortgage today. I'm not debating the success of sales past, it's going forward that will bring prices down 30-40%. Not only is demand down but inventory is going to be at a 2 year supply this time next year. The wall street job cuts have only just begun, wait until November and December and you will see tens of thousands. So keep posting your BS and encourage buyers all you want, it's not going to prevent the inevitable.
And as an added bonus watch how, rents begin to collapse. Who do you think are going to rent these places? Keep you head up LICComment it's still not to late to change professions.
Also lets not forget, even if you do qualify for a mortgage, it's going to be for much lower then years past. This will make buying higher priced units that much harder. I can't even imagine the number of people that were able to borrow way above the 28% figure. Lets see how many people qualify today for a $800,000 mortgage, even after putting down $200,000. The 1M condo is going to see an overwhelming drop in qualified buyers. The righting is on the wall.
I just love when people take one line totally out of context.
Yes, I said I would not buy in the area of the star tower, I also said that I WOULD buy in the area of jackson and the waterfront. I have been reading this thread for quite some time and I dont say much because when someone is looking for an opion ( i.e Dumber )it becomes an emothinal pissing contest with people like DCO. I think LIC is going to be a great place and I do believe that these units will appreciate in due time. I would purchase in LIC.
SSNYC- "I think LIC is going to be a great place and I do believe that these units will appreciate in due time."
Define due time. I think banking stocks will appreciate in due time as well, however I'm not going anywhere near them for sometime. It's a silly statement. I can't for the life of me, figure out why, someone would buy when all indications are that you could get it at a significant discount just by waiting.
Roughly every $100,000 you save is $700 less a month. So saving 200,000 on a 1M unit saves you $1,400/month. I don't care if you are buying for investment or primary, $1,400/month is a lot of money. Do you people really think that this market is poised to increase. It's just silly. You can't possibly think that you must buy now or you will lose a golden opportunity. There is no way anyone on this site would believe this today. Or perhaps I'm wrong and most have no concept of what's going on around them.
lets be fair licc.. i have no agenda to rip LICC, i live there.. in fact, i live on a waterfront building, so whereas you know what its like on saturday afternoons, i know what its like 24/7. there isnt much going on down there. you'd also see that my point about the housing projects was in reference to the queens plaza area which the OP is considering, not queenswest which i pointed out was a better investment.
you balked when you assumed (incorrectly) that i was comparing queenswest to queens plaza. yet your comparison of queens plaza to LES/Chelsea is arguably more dubious. queensbridge is the largest public housing project in america. nas and mobb deep never rapped about their days in chelsea.
dco, why can't you get it in your head that "all indications" do not show this massive downturn you are hoping for? Especially in LIC. Your assertion that this unit's value will drop from $400k to $200k, or that $750k units in LIC will drop $200k, is ridiculous and not based on any "indications."
cb - ok, during the day in the middle of the week, the waterfront may be quiet. If that is your definition of "the area is painful and desolate," we will just have to disagree and leave it at that. Why don't we revist this in a few months when thousands of new residents will be moving in to the new buildings that are about to open right at the waterfront.
I don't understand your point about the projects. The Queens projects are really bad projects, but the Manhattan projects are luxury projects? You are reaching pretty far there. Beside, like I said, the Jackson Avenue area buildings, and particularly this Star condo, are not right on top of the projects.
There is a strip club right by the train station and where you come off the Queensborough Bridge. It's on the second floor which is why you may not have seen it.
I'll be honest, the area where the Crescent Club and Star Tower could have potential but in this current credit and housing market, you really should build someplace closer to the water. Anything 4-5 blocks out from the waterfront will be risky business for the next two years.
thanks all, for your comments. NYbylr, i agree that it's risky for the next 2 years. but that was part of the appeal of this place, since it wouldn't be completed till early 2010. i dunno, i'm hearing what everyone is saying...
btw, i was also thinking that the queens plaza location (esp south of the tracks) would actually be appealing to a different market than the condos by the water; i.e., i don't think that they're "competing" for the same pool of tenants. the condos by the water are competing for commuters that go to grand central, while Star tower is competing for commuters that work by 53rd-59th street across the bridge. i understand that it's just a few blocks away and nothing but a small transfer on the subway, but really, it is quite a difference. so given Star tower's proximity to the train station (2 short blocks away), and the fact that for now it seems to be the closest to queens plaza (without the riffraff that is north of the tracks)...
i don't think i'm *completely* off in my logic here, but as always, i do invite people to prove why my handle is what it is...
??? i think you're wrong, newaccount. these are sincere posts. i can't convince you or anyone else. you'll just have to take my word for it. i'm just trying to understand things as best i can. i process best when i hear many opposing points of view so that i can work out the logic (or lack thereof) of each argument. i assume everyone including myself has better things to do than just post for the sake of posting.
I'm the one that normally reads all of these posts, then makes my post and then leaves everyone to carry on posting the same crap for 250 posts until no one wants to come in and read the thread anymore. Then, DCO goes and starts a new thread and LICComment and him continue talking to each other for endless hours all over again.
Anyhow, jsut in case Dumberthanyou actually wants people's opinions, I'm goign to type a bit.
I live in midtown, I have a real interest in LIC and I have seriously considered moving to there. In fact, we have a little one on the way, so once that happens we will probably want more space and in my opinion, there is no better value than LIC.
Everyone keeps saying "a place marketed as close to manhattan". I've got news for you, there are plenty of places that in Manhattan that I would be less excited to live in than LIC. And, those areas are more expensive. This idea of living in "manhattan" is so passe - yes, when "Manhattan" was 5th avenue on the park I would have agreed that everyone wanted to live in "manhattan", and with good reason. The reality is that now people live on 90th and 1st avenue just so that they can say that they "live in Manhattan"... anyhow, that's my point about that.
With that said, there are plenty of great new neighborhoods around the city. LIC is growing faster than ever. The name "Long Island City" sounds so far away - but it's amazing how many people are totally ingorant. Everyone that i have ever brought there had no idea how centrally located it was, even more-so, they are shocked when they realize how much there is to do there. I know three people that I have introduced to LIC that have since moved there. I also have a number of friedns who couldn't have pointed out LIC on a map to you 2 months ago that now go to the Water Taxi beach almost every weekend - and keep bringing new people there.
The issue is that beacue it was a former industrial zone, not many people live there currently - so it's tough for word of mouth to travel because there are only so many peolpe to spread the word.
So, DCO, when you scoff at the fact that there are "thousands of new residents" coming; the truth is that there are. There are about 5,000 people expected to move in (that includes queens plaza etc.) in the next 1 1/2 years. All of those new constructions that you keep complaining about are going to be finished (most in the first half of 2009) and with that will come thousands of new residents. I realize, as you say, that some of the more recently opened ones are not fully sold out; however, most of them are over 70% sold and some are more than that. So, yes, in a short period of time there will be thousands of people moving to the area.
Anyhow, Dumberthanyou, I agree with some people; it is not the best climate to be making an investment in...If you are trying to flip an apartment. If you are trying to hold an aprtment for a number of years and rent it out so that someone can pay your mortgage and you can own it down the road...then yes, I do think that LIC is the right place to invest.
I do think that the waterfront is a safer investment becasue i am pretty sure that there will be a demand for rentals there; however, you will -- as you noted -- get a better value in the queens plaza are. Also, Star Tower is supposed to be a "real" luxury building. You can never be sure with new construction but all indications point to that Star is going to be top quality and the views should be amazing. I think that it is one of the few condos that will easily command good rental prices. The smaller buildings are better if you want to own and live there -- the larger buildings with more ammenities are going to hold up against the big rental buildings.
Anyhow, you seem smart enough. You do your research. You drive around the area and see for yourself. I also think that it's smart that you ask for everyone's opinion so that you can weigh it.
At the end of the day, you know what's best and my only recomendation is to do your research. I am a firm believer in owning property and holding it for the long term. Some peolpe say that you can make more money renting and sticking the rest in the stock market but I have a few friends that would tell you oterhwise right now because some have just lost their shirts in the market and are moving out of their luxury rentals that they can no longer afford.
Buy what you can afford, and if you have time, it will pay off.
newaccount, i didn't get the sarcasm; my bad. writing can be tricky sometimes, since nuance can get lost in the fray.
lobo, thanks for the post and your opinions. ... what all this talk is slowly convincing me of is that perhaps the best investment is not in a stupid 1BR unit, but rather, to open up a bar or dry cleaner or grungy (read: anti-starbucks) 24-hour cafe within walking distance of the waterfront buildings. does anyone have any experience in this type of entrepreneurship?
>>>>"So, DCO, when you scoff at the fact that there are "thousands of new residents" coming; the truth is that there are. There are about 5,000 people expected to move in (that includes queens plaza etc.) in the next 1 1/2 years. All of those new constructions that you keep complaining about are going to be finished (most in the first half of 2009) and with that will come thousands of new residents. I realize, as you say, that some of the more recently opened ones are not fully sold out; however, most of them are over 70% sold and some are more than that. So, yes, in a short period of time there will be thousands of people moving to the area."
No, actually your wrong about most being 70% sold. Some of those buildings aren't even 20% sold. And by your statement.
>>>>"All of those new constructions that you keep complaining about are going to be finished (most in the first half of 2009"
Shows that inventory numbers will continue to increase and out pace demand. If you can't sell out 50% of the existing condos, what makes you think that adding another 1,000 units will make things better.
>>>>"I have a few friends that would tell you otherwise right now because some have just lost their shirts in the market and are moving out of their luxury rentals that they can no longer afford."
That's also why rents are going down and the reason people will refrain from buying in the near future. This of course will add further to inventory numbers and bring prices tumbling.
It's really not that hard to understand how prices will be effected in NYC.
lobo- "Anyhow, Dumberthanyou, I agree with some people; it is not the best climate to be making an investment in...If you are trying to flip an apartment. If you are trying to hold an aprtment for a number of years and rent it out so that someone can pay your mortgage and you can own it down the road...then yes, I do think that LIC is the right place to invest"
That was 8 weeks ago, still giving the go ahead to buy? Perhaps the 5-7 year hold is not long enough and if the market tanks 40-50% will this still be a good idea? Just curious where you stand today as opposed to 2 months ago.
With current mortgage rates (which have dropped more than 1 point in the last few weeks) i'd say that it makes it even more attractive for those that can afford.
Personally, I already own so I would just be selling one place to live in another.
As long as you are buying a place that compares to a $psf that has been commanded in an area (600 - 700psf in LIC) then I would say go ahead and buy ... build up your equity over time, take the tax deduction and stop throwing money away on rent.
Could I see there being as much as a 10% drop in the city? yes. Do I see things crashing to the point that you shouldn't buy if you were already planning to and have a good downpayment (20%)? no.
Now, with that said, would I buy in LIC at $850 - $1,000psf? No. But it doesn't seem that anyone is doing that anyhow ... so I do see those "list" prices coming down (not actual prices).
I do not think that East Coast 3 will get $1,000psf as they are asking but I do think that it's the one building that can command over $750psf because of the views.
Anyhow, mortgage rates will be low for the foreseeable future. We will see some more bank failures and we will have to wait for the economy to recover. Housing prices inthis country (and in this city) were severly undervalued for many years ... did that justify the fast run up that we had? no. But I don't think that we are going to see the 50% crash that people are talking about.
Fairly priced units in the city are still moving ... it's the unrealistic asking prices that have been getting chopped constantly. So, for those that bought last year or this year with the intention of flipping ... not so good for you. For those that were buying or are buying a home ... good for you, enjoy.
Does anybody realize that right next to the Queensborough #7 train below the strip club is also the Rikers island bus pickup and dropoff. That area is in need of a big cleanup.
Star Tower in LIC and comps
Folks, i've just started my hunt in LIC. the only place i've been to is Star Tower, and to be quite honest, i was quite impressed with it. pricing was coming in around $675-700 psf for a 1BR. my only problem is, i don't really know the neighborhoods within LIC too well -- actually, i don't know them at all. i'm reading what i can from the threads on here, but there's so much b.s. drivel, that it's hard to weed out the informative stuff from the b.s. ... so i'd like your help with some quick answers to some basic questions:
1) does $675 psf sound reasonable compared to similar buildings in the area?
2) does anyone have any juicy details about the Star Tower in particular? percentage sold? developer financing? etc.
3) does anyone have any info about Tishman's Gotham Center project, which is supposed to be built across the street?
4) i understand that the queens plaza area is fairly "ghetto". but i'd like to hear some pros and cons about it all.
thanks for your help and insight. any other words of wisdom to persuade or dissuade me from a purchase would be appreciated!
$700,000 for a condo in Queens Plaza- just blocks from the biggest housing project in the city. Take a walk around the area and count the strip clubs. When you're done with that, look for the hookers strolling the plaza. That area is a dump. I understand that they have these "great plans" for the area. That's great, the problem is that their asking price's are as if the area has already completed its transformation. Not to mention that the "transformation" is probably in jeopardy considering the credit problems and the lack of TAXES the city will encounter in the next few years. BIG gamble for this area.
Look at VIEW 59. 1/3 of their units never sold and about the same are for rent in the building. Bad location and way over priced. AT $400 sq/ft perhaps. NO way Jose.
dco, a while back didn't someone start a post about how you and a few others have made this board quite unenjoyable? You then stated you were going to take a long break or something to that effect. What happened to that? You spew an awful lot of garbage, and a lot of it is pretty off base.
In the spirit of full disclosure, I do work in the industry. I am not, however, a real estate agent nor am I associated with a real estate agency. I am not particularly bullish or bearish about the market. We are clearly going through a recession, but quality homes are still selling and I firmly believe they will continue to.
I don't know too much about the Star Tower, sorry dumber. I do know it took Rowe a little while to get their financing, but it appears to be in place now.
dco, with regards to view 59, you are incorrect. According to my friends at Evans, 1/3 of the building was never actually put on the market. When they hit roughly 70% sold the sales office was dismantled. The goal was to release the remainder of the units when the building was constructed. During that time period they decided it would be more lucrative to rent the remainder of the units in order to keep a consistent cash flow coming from the building.
actually, the unit i'm looking at comes in at a little more than $400K. and it would be an investment unit (ie, not to live in). it's not a great view, but at those prices and 10% down, renting at $2300/month would almost pay for itself. and though i don't know the area at all, it doesn't take a genius to see that when i got off the subway stop, the place seemed pretty dead. but it seems to me that it could attract SOMEONE that works midoffice or something across the bridge and is looking for a quick ride home. am i way off base here? i was thinking of holding onto the place for maybe 5 years and then unwinding. but really, i'm only thinking about it because the numbers really work -- assuming that i can get $2300/month. does that sound reasonable?
Dumber, if you are looking to purchase a unit to rent out... I think the buildings closer to the waterfront or along Jackson ave would be a safer investment. You may pay a slighly higher price per square foot but if the unit comes with a view it would be worth it. The Jackson ave area and waterfront of LIC is much better. The area with the star tower is not going to be a neighborhood untill they renovate queens plaza which they have been put off for quite some time and it still may not become a neighborhood. I think if you are going to hold a unit in LIC for at least 5 years it will be worth you wile. Dont listen to DCO he definatly does not like LIC as he spends much of his time trying to spread the word of what a bad investment it is. ( no offense DCO ) you are entitled to your opion. I have been in NYC for 20+ years and through different markets and I do believe that LIC would be a good inverstment over time. If I were making this purchase I would not buy in the area of the star tower.
Hey dumber,
I was in the same position as you a few months ago, that being looking for a one bedroom investment property. I was looking for a pre developed building in a pre developed area so I could get a discount on what in five years would be a gold mine. I found it after hours and hours of research.
I will attached a link that is a summation of my research and if you are really serious about finding an investment property I don't think you could do better. Go to the building and see for yourself, the sales office is down the block. If you check out each attachment you will agree that the potential is amazing.
Scroll down to second comment posted by Karl entitled "Toren and Downtown Brooklyn".
http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=147216&page=4
It's a lot of money so make sure you exhaust every avenue. Being aware of StreetEasy is a good place to start.
Junkman, briefly read your post. wow, you're one hell of a salesman! :)
SSNYC, thanks for the info/opinion. yes, from what i can tell on the discussion boards here, i guess i'm supposed to be looking at 5SL, powerhouse, EC3, foundry, and a few other buildings with acronyms that i still have to investigate. these are, i assume, all by the waterfront area that you are mentioning. but the thing is, i really don't think i could afford anything more than the $400K that i mentioned. so it's almost a moot point. also, the star tower isn't going to be done till "late 2009", which i assume means Q1 of 2010. and that timing, for a whole host of personal reasons, is actually quite perfect for me. conversely, the units in the other buildings (a) cost more than $400K, and (b) would need to be closed fairly soon. ... (am i right in these assumptions?)
these are all more reasons why Star appealed to me.
plus, i've read that Tishman's Gotham Center is definitely green-lighted. they probably won't be done till 2010 or 2011, and then another year or two before we see some signs of "neighborhood" spring up (eg, grocery stores, shops). but if i can get rent to practically cover my mortgage (and common charges are exceptionally low in this building!), then i don't see why i can't wait out till 2012 or whenever.
i'd like it for people to continue to dump cold water on my fantasy, as i like to hear the downsides. but does anyone want to chime in and tell me that i'm not *totally* off base here?
dco, just visited the place again today. rented a car and drove all over the place. though i didn't perform a very systematic browsing of the neighborhood, i couldn't find the hundreds of strip clubs you mentioned. can't speak for the hookers, since daylight probably isn't their shift, ha. the housing project, i couldn't find either, but i did hear that it is north of the train tracks, which seems to be quite a different area from even the edge of the south side of the tracks that the Star Tower is located at. and FYI, we're talking about $400K, not $675K.
I can tell you this - the last person in the world you want to take advice from regarding LIC is dco. He is bitter that he can't afford to buy there so he constantly puts down the area. He also makes some of the most inaccurate statements on this board.
If I were you, I would compare Star to Crescent Club. Star is probably in a slightly better location and in the long run may be the better building, but it is hard to say at this point. Look at rentals in Purves, that also may give you and indication of what to expect from Star, which by all accounts looks like a more upscale building.
LICComment - is your entire existence dedicated to trying to undermine DCO? That is literally ALL you do. It's getting quite pathetic. Look, I don't agree with DCO, but can you say anything of value in your posts at all besides "don't listen to DCO"? You sound like DCO's younger, petulant, more ignorant sibling.
And tell me, LICComment, why anyone would assume that someone named LICComment has anything objective to say about LIC.
Btw LICComment, I was in Greenpoint and Williamsburg last weekend, came back through LIC and I have to say it is still a painful, lonely, desperate place. Greenpoint and Williamsburg are downright Parisian compared to LIC. Even Sunnyside has more flavor than LIC.
I should correct myself - "I don't agree with DCO" should read "I don't ALWAYS agree with DCO". I do agree with DCO that LIC is an overbuilt wasteland.
dumberthanyou- I think that you should ignore my advice and buy several units. The funny thing is, I can understand why someone would buy a place to live. I don't agree that it's a good time to do that now, however I understand the mentality. What I can't comprehend is why anyone in their right mind would buy an investment property in this climate. The sole purpose of an investment property is to make money. If you buy tomorrow, by the time you go to close you would have lost money already. So do yourself a favor and ignore me and follow the advice of the "RE Marketing Machine". Good Luck.
I never said hundreds of strip clubs. How many did you find? And as the projects go if you missed them then I would advise you to rent the car again and ask for the tour.
SSNYC "If I were making this purchase I would not buy in the area of the star tower."
And this is different from my opinion how? I also wouldn't buy in this area. Nor would I buy anywhere in the city at this time. So don't assume that I have some vendetta about LIC. It's got nothing to do with LIC. I just use LIC to illustrate how crazy the market had gotten. It's the whole city that will see substantial decreases.
dco -- i'm not ignoring your advice. i'm just taking it all in...
faustus, you obviously have trouble reading if you never see any of my other posts on other subjects. You may want to check your eyesight too if you went by the Queens West area at the waterfront and thought it looked painful and desolate. Don't lash out at me because you and dco have no credibility.
LICComment - I have no trouble reading your posts, which is of course why I find them so empty of substance.
Frankly, I have no particular desire to engage you at all, except that you perpetually attack others saying they have "no credibility" while providing nothing of substance to refute their claims.
While DCO and stevejhx may be gadflies on this site, they at least back up their arguments with data/facts. You've never offered an iota of substance against their claims or analyses.
You always say "read my posts" but there's nothing ever there.
Here's a challenge: save us all the time and demonstrate how one of your prior posts is "substantive".
What substance were in your posts faustus? Hmm, none. dco and steve don't back up their arguments with data or facts. They misconstrue news articles to mislead others. When people say absolutely ridiculous, unintelligent things, like the LIC waterfront is desolate, I point out who stupid it is. When the discussion revolves around substantive data and research, I provide that as part of the discussion. You and dco said dumb things and I pointed it out to correct it. Again, don't get angry when you say something foolish and it gets pointed out.
I guess you missed the post above where I pointed out other buildings near where Star is being built as good present comparisons.
hmm... why exactly is it ridiculous to say that the waterfrnt is desolate? i live on the waterfront, and you'll be lucky to see five people at any one time on the four block stretch between avalon and eastcoast. that said, i agree that waterfront is exponentially better than queens plaza area.. housing projects and train tracks do not gentrify, and they do not go away. from an investment perspective, unless you get a steep discount (whcih i think you are), there is no question.
LICComment - you make this so easy!
You say: "dco and steve don't back up their arguments with data or facts. They misconstrue news articles to mislead others", but yet again, you have no specifics. You can't point to anything specific that DCO or steve said that "misconstrues or misleads" nor have you ever credibly refuted any of their arguments.
All you can say is "They misconstrue! They mislead!" No specifics, no nothing. If your posts were a 3rd grade paper, you would get an F.
You do realize you just proved my point, right? Or are you so obtuse you missed that too?
cb, I don't know where you live, but whenever I am there on the weekends I see lots of people at the piers, in the plaza, at the cafe, walking around, at Water Taxi Beach, etc. To call the area "painful and desolate" is either ignorant or dishonest. And tell everyone on the west side of Manhattan or in the Lower East Side and East Village that condos can't be near housing projects. Also, the developments off Jackson Avenue are not right next to projects and the Queens West area is not near any projects. The projects are actually off the water north of the Queensboro Bridge. Yes they are in the area, but you make it sound like the building is directly across the street.
faustus, you are boring me. In posts where dco or steve cite to a news article or some theoretical analysis, I discuss the specifics. I've discussed with dco different views and analysis of the overall market, how new developments work, correlations to Manhattan, etc. dco and I may take some funny cracks at one another here and there but we seem to be able to have some civil back and forth, so I don't know why you are getting so bent out of shape. I've disputed steve's numbers with his 12-15x rent ratio analysis and explained the use of marginal and effective tax rates when determining the mortgage deduction benefit, and I have weighed in on many other discussions.
Did you even finish high school, because your argument is so low-level.
dco, will you finally stop with your silly comments about View's rental units? I tried warning you about how foolish you sound with these statements. They sell 70% of their units in a short period of time, close the sales office and decide to sell the rest after the building is completed and you somehow think this is a negative.
LICComment, that article you posted about LIC just makes me want to buy all the more! :(
LICComment- There are eleven units listed for rent in that building. So what your telling me is that people want to buy these units, but the developer doesn't want to take their money.
The truth is that there is no demand. No one wants to pay these prices. Just about every development in LIC, sold 90% of their sold units in 2007. Unless you have great credit and 20-25% down payment your going to have an almost impossible time getting a mortgage today. I'm not debating the success of sales past, it's going forward that will bring prices down 30-40%. Not only is demand down but inventory is going to be at a 2 year supply this time next year. The wall street job cuts have only just begun, wait until November and December and you will see tens of thousands. So keep posting your BS and encourage buyers all you want, it's not going to prevent the inevitable.
And as an added bonus watch how, rents begin to collapse. Who do you think are going to rent these places? Keep you head up LICComment it's still not to late to change professions.
Also lets not forget, even if you do qualify for a mortgage, it's going to be for much lower then years past. This will make buying higher priced units that much harder. I can't even imagine the number of people that were able to borrow way above the 28% figure. Lets see how many people qualify today for a $800,000 mortgage, even after putting down $200,000. The 1M condo is going to see an overwhelming drop in qualified buyers. The righting is on the wall.
I just love when people take one line totally out of context.
Yes, I said I would not buy in the area of the star tower, I also said that I WOULD buy in the area of jackson and the waterfront. I have been reading this thread for quite some time and I dont say much because when someone is looking for an opion ( i.e Dumber )it becomes an emothinal pissing contest with people like DCO. I think LIC is going to be a great place and I do believe that these units will appreciate in due time. I would purchase in LIC.
SSNYC- "I think LIC is going to be a great place and I do believe that these units will appreciate in due time."
Define due time. I think banking stocks will appreciate in due time as well, however I'm not going anywhere near them for sometime. It's a silly statement. I can't for the life of me, figure out why, someone would buy when all indications are that you could get it at a significant discount just by waiting.
Roughly every $100,000 you save is $700 less a month. So saving 200,000 on a 1M unit saves you $1,400/month. I don't care if you are buying for investment or primary, $1,400/month is a lot of money. Do you people really think that this market is poised to increase. It's just silly. You can't possibly think that you must buy now or you will lose a golden opportunity. There is no way anyone on this site would believe this today. Or perhaps I'm wrong and most have no concept of what's going on around them.
lets be fair licc.. i have no agenda to rip LICC, i live there.. in fact, i live on a waterfront building, so whereas you know what its like on saturday afternoons, i know what its like 24/7. there isnt much going on down there. you'd also see that my point about the housing projects was in reference to the queens plaza area which the OP is considering, not queenswest which i pointed out was a better investment.
you balked when you assumed (incorrectly) that i was comparing queenswest to queens plaza. yet your comparison of queens plaza to LES/Chelsea is arguably more dubious. queensbridge is the largest public housing project in america. nas and mobb deep never rapped about their days in chelsea.
dco, why can't you get it in your head that "all indications" do not show this massive downturn you are hoping for? Especially in LIC. Your assertion that this unit's value will drop from $400k to $200k, or that $750k units in LIC will drop $200k, is ridiculous and not based on any "indications."
cb - ok, during the day in the middle of the week, the waterfront may be quiet. If that is your definition of "the area is painful and desolate," we will just have to disagree and leave it at that. Why don't we revist this in a few months when thousands of new residents will be moving in to the new buildings that are about to open right at the waterfront.
I don't understand your point about the projects. The Queens projects are really bad projects, but the Manhattan projects are luxury projects? You are reaching pretty far there. Beside, like I said, the Jackson Avenue area buildings, and particularly this Star condo, are not right on top of the projects.
LICComment- "thousands of new residents"
Really, thousands of new residents. Are you out of your mind. Give me the break, where exactly are these thousands of people moving to?
You're right, LIC is better positioned then Manhattan for the impending doom. I think you're trying to live the bubble that just burst.
There is a strip club right by the train station and where you come off the Queensborough Bridge. It's on the second floor which is why you may not have seen it.
I'll be honest, the area where the Crescent Club and Star Tower could have potential but in this current credit and housing market, you really should build someplace closer to the water. Anything 4-5 blocks out from the waterfront will be risky business for the next two years.
thanks all, for your comments. NYbylr, i agree that it's risky for the next 2 years. but that was part of the appeal of this place, since it wouldn't be completed till early 2010. i dunno, i'm hearing what everyone is saying...
btw, i was also thinking that the queens plaza location (esp south of the tracks) would actually be appealing to a different market than the condos by the water; i.e., i don't think that they're "competing" for the same pool of tenants. the condos by the water are competing for commuters that go to grand central, while Star tower is competing for commuters that work by 53rd-59th street across the bridge. i understand that it's just a few blocks away and nothing but a small transfer on the subway, but really, it is quite a difference. so given Star tower's proximity to the train station (2 short blocks away), and the fact that for now it seems to be the closest to queens plaza (without the riffraff that is north of the tracks)...
i don't think i'm *completely* off in my logic here, but as always, i do invite people to prove why my handle is what it is...
I think dumberthanyou is conducting a study on this forum, asking baiting questions to see what you 'experts' will say.
??? i think you're wrong, newaccount. these are sincere posts. i can't convince you or anyone else. you'll just have to take my word for it. i'm just trying to understand things as best i can. i process best when i hear many opposing points of view so that i can work out the logic (or lack thereof) of each argument. i assume everyone including myself has better things to do than just post for the sake of posting.
Can't you tell satire when it's drawn right in front of you?
Hey All,
I'm the one that normally reads all of these posts, then makes my post and then leaves everyone to carry on posting the same crap for 250 posts until no one wants to come in and read the thread anymore. Then, DCO goes and starts a new thread and LICComment and him continue talking to each other for endless hours all over again.
Anyhow, jsut in case Dumberthanyou actually wants people's opinions, I'm goign to type a bit.
I live in midtown, I have a real interest in LIC and I have seriously considered moving to there. In fact, we have a little one on the way, so once that happens we will probably want more space and in my opinion, there is no better value than LIC.
Everyone keeps saying "a place marketed as close to manhattan". I've got news for you, there are plenty of places that in Manhattan that I would be less excited to live in than LIC. And, those areas are more expensive. This idea of living in "manhattan" is so passe - yes, when "Manhattan" was 5th avenue on the park I would have agreed that everyone wanted to live in "manhattan", and with good reason. The reality is that now people live on 90th and 1st avenue just so that they can say that they "live in Manhattan"... anyhow, that's my point about that.
With that said, there are plenty of great new neighborhoods around the city. LIC is growing faster than ever. The name "Long Island City" sounds so far away - but it's amazing how many people are totally ingorant. Everyone that i have ever brought there had no idea how centrally located it was, even more-so, they are shocked when they realize how much there is to do there. I know three people that I have introduced to LIC that have since moved there. I also have a number of friedns who couldn't have pointed out LIC on a map to you 2 months ago that now go to the Water Taxi beach almost every weekend - and keep bringing new people there.
The issue is that beacue it was a former industrial zone, not many people live there currently - so it's tough for word of mouth to travel because there are only so many peolpe to spread the word.
So, DCO, when you scoff at the fact that there are "thousands of new residents" coming; the truth is that there are. There are about 5,000 people expected to move in (that includes queens plaza etc.) in the next 1 1/2 years. All of those new constructions that you keep complaining about are going to be finished (most in the first half of 2009) and with that will come thousands of new residents. I realize, as you say, that some of the more recently opened ones are not fully sold out; however, most of them are over 70% sold and some are more than that. So, yes, in a short period of time there will be thousands of people moving to the area.
Anyhow, Dumberthanyou, I agree with some people; it is not the best climate to be making an investment in...If you are trying to flip an apartment. If you are trying to hold an aprtment for a number of years and rent it out so that someone can pay your mortgage and you can own it down the road...then yes, I do think that LIC is the right place to invest.
I do think that the waterfront is a safer investment becasue i am pretty sure that there will be a demand for rentals there; however, you will -- as you noted -- get a better value in the queens plaza are. Also, Star Tower is supposed to be a "real" luxury building. You can never be sure with new construction but all indications point to that Star is going to be top quality and the views should be amazing. I think that it is one of the few condos that will easily command good rental prices. The smaller buildings are better if you want to own and live there -- the larger buildings with more ammenities are going to hold up against the big rental buildings.
Anyhow, you seem smart enough. You do your research. You drive around the area and see for yourself. I also think that it's smart that you ask for everyone's opinion so that you can weigh it.
At the end of the day, you know what's best and my only recomendation is to do your research. I am a firm believer in owning property and holding it for the long term. Some peolpe say that you can make more money renting and sticking the rest in the stock market but I have a few friends that would tell you oterhwise right now because some have just lost their shirts in the market and are moving out of their luxury rentals that they can no longer afford.
Buy what you can afford, and if you have time, it will pay off.
Lobo, Perfectly said...
I agree with you totally...
newaccount, i didn't get the sarcasm; my bad. writing can be tricky sometimes, since nuance can get lost in the fray.
lobo, thanks for the post and your opinions. ... what all this talk is slowly convincing me of is that perhaps the best investment is not in a stupid 1BR unit, but rather, to open up a bar or dry cleaner or grungy (read: anti-starbucks) 24-hour cafe within walking distance of the waterfront buildings. does anyone have any experience in this type of entrepreneurship?
lobo-
>>>>"So, DCO, when you scoff at the fact that there are "thousands of new residents" coming; the truth is that there are. There are about 5,000 people expected to move in (that includes queens plaza etc.) in the next 1 1/2 years. All of those new constructions that you keep complaining about are going to be finished (most in the first half of 2009) and with that will come thousands of new residents. I realize, as you say, that some of the more recently opened ones are not fully sold out; however, most of them are over 70% sold and some are more than that. So, yes, in a short period of time there will be thousands of people moving to the area."
No, actually your wrong about most being 70% sold. Some of those buildings aren't even 20% sold. And by your statement.
>>>>"All of those new constructions that you keep complaining about are going to be finished (most in the first half of 2009"
Shows that inventory numbers will continue to increase and out pace demand. If you can't sell out 50% of the existing condos, what makes you think that adding another 1,000 units will make things better.
>>>>"I have a few friends that would tell you otherwise right now because some have just lost their shirts in the market and are moving out of their luxury rentals that they can no longer afford."
That's also why rents are going down and the reason people will refrain from buying in the near future. This of course will add further to inventory numbers and bring prices tumbling.
It's really not that hard to understand how prices will be effected in NYC.
Hi,
I'm about to enter into a purchase agreement with The Star Tower, and I too had all of the same concerns 'dumberthanyou' voiced.
I think 'lobo' nailed it and I found this thread to be incredibly helpful.
Dumberthanyou - another site that might be helpful in terms of your research is "www.queenswest.com".
lobo- "Anyhow, Dumberthanyou, I agree with some people; it is not the best climate to be making an investment in...If you are trying to flip an apartment. If you are trying to hold an aprtment for a number of years and rent it out so that someone can pay your mortgage and you can own it down the road...then yes, I do think that LIC is the right place to invest"
That was 8 weeks ago, still giving the go ahead to buy? Perhaps the 5-7 year hold is not long enough and if the market tanks 40-50% will this still be a good idea? Just curious where you stand today as opposed to 2 months ago.
I don't see the market tanking 50%.
With current mortgage rates (which have dropped more than 1 point in the last few weeks) i'd say that it makes it even more attractive for those that can afford.
Personally, I already own so I would just be selling one place to live in another.
As long as you are buying a place that compares to a $psf that has been commanded in an area (600 - 700psf in LIC) then I would say go ahead and buy ... build up your equity over time, take the tax deduction and stop throwing money away on rent.
Could I see there being as much as a 10% drop in the city? yes. Do I see things crashing to the point that you shouldn't buy if you were already planning to and have a good downpayment (20%)? no.
Now, with that said, would I buy in LIC at $850 - $1,000psf? No. But it doesn't seem that anyone is doing that anyhow ... so I do see those "list" prices coming down (not actual prices).
I do not think that East Coast 3 will get $1,000psf as they are asking but I do think that it's the one building that can command over $750psf because of the views.
Anyhow, mortgage rates will be low for the foreseeable future. We will see some more bank failures and we will have to wait for the economy to recover. Housing prices inthis country (and in this city) were severly undervalued for many years ... did that justify the fast run up that we had? no. But I don't think that we are going to see the 50% crash that people are talking about.
Fairly priced units in the city are still moving ... it's the unrealistic asking prices that have been getting chopped constantly. So, for those that bought last year or this year with the intention of flipping ... not so good for you. For those that were buying or are buying a home ... good for you, enjoy.
P.S. - with the current drop in mortgage rates, you are saving more than $600 per month on a $900,000 condo with 20% down.
Does anybody realize that right next to the Queensborough #7 train below the strip club is also the Rikers island bus pickup and dropoff. That area is in need of a big cleanup.
Wow, some awesome quotes in this one... Not to mention the irony of dco taking heat for his predictions...