Area most able to survive a downturn?

I tihnk that area will fare well also.

The new Columbus Circle West area where all the new construction is going up at 59-60 st.

Espec 10 WEA

You think? It doesn't look terribly well built....

Tribeca/Soho

Downtown Manhattan. While we go through the crash and aftershock, the neighborhood itself will be improving (more retail, more people). Even if the crash has a 20-30% effect, its increase in relative worth could make up for a chunk of that...

Columbia U area and Tribeca.

Lower East Side.

Just to annoy the hell out of Sneaky P.

(Of course I don't mean that....)

UES, Fifth and PArk Avenues.

All the areas that were strong prior to the boom - UES, UWS, WV, Tribeca, Soho.

UWS below 96th. 5th and Park Ave.

Interestingly enough, 5th and park avenue took the biggest haircuts in the last big downturn. The maintenance was so high that folks just couldn't afford to make those payments, and some co-ops traded at $1...

Anyone read 740 Park? Steinburg bought that famous penthouse for less than $300,000 (the maintenance was around $3,500) in 1973 I think. Sold it to STeve Schwarzman for $37,000,000 in 2000 or 2001.

What crash...20-30% fall. People who bought before the crazy price increases will make a huge profit even with a 30% decline. A two bedroom bought for $330k sells for $1m. Let's look at this in the time frame of before '2001 and after.

> People who bought before the crazy price increases will make
> a huge profit even with a 30% decline.

You sure about that?

If you had a 50% increase, a 30% decline pretty much brings your return to zero.
If you had a 100% increase, a 30% decline now means you have a 40% total increase.

If you're talking about before 2001, you're now talking at least a 10 year time horizon. Breaking even after 10 years means a HUGE loss after inflation. A 40$ increase over 10 years, I don't think even beats inflation.

Now, add in the costs of borrowed money... you could be talking about a serious loss.

Not just that, how does this help the folks who *didn't* buy 10 years ago, but more likely 1-2-3 or 5 years ago?

East Village. It never went up that much to begin with and there's zero inventory of good units.

I have to disagree, totallyanonymous, at least w/ the 1br co-op market I follow. I've been watching it come down since late 07 (it had, actually, gone up considerably) - the marginal stuff pretty significantly, the average stuff more subtly. Alphabet City still has plenty of sketchy blocks: Ave C is only nice for a 4-block stretch, from 7th to 11th Streets, Ave D is still scary, and plenty of the side streets are low-end w/ projects, beat-up buildings, etc. When things were running up there was this feeling that gentrification would sweep through every corner, but obviously that hasn't happened. Also, the city's budget shortfalls will have a direct impact on the condition of the streets and especially Tompkins Sq Park. I've already noticed an increase in the scuzz factor: more homeless people crashing on the sidewalk and benches in the park, the Crusties taking over a corridor again (didn't know the smelly, tattoo-faced kids had a name until that recent Curbed article), and the police presence is noticibly down.

tenemental, good to see you here. Have any of these factors turned you away from the East Village recently? I don't see it going back to the ways of old, but as no one really knows how long this downturn will last, curious to hear how that will impact your decision-making. And you're dead on about Ave C - I saw a pretty nice place at 9th and C in the winter and got to know the surrounding blocks a bit better. It's fine over there, but as you move further up or down C, there's a noticeable change.

Hey, bjw2103. I've been pretty conflicted on the EV for a while. I don't necessarily expect it to return to what it was, crime and danger-wise, when I first moved here in the early-90's (the record number of dealers offering me drugs back then? 8 in a block and a half). Nor in the mid-90s when I moved into my current place and there were dealers literally on my doorstep. Back then I wouldn't let my girlfriend do the nighttime dog walk. On the flipside, relative safety has led to an overwhelming influx of fratboys and SATC girls who have really diminished the character of the neighborhood. PetrFitz is out of his mind when he says that creative types are here in force. Most have moved to where it's cheaper, and the new ones are generally starting out in Bkln. You know who's left? The older artists who are either rent stabilized or bought their places for peanuts ages ago. I know two people on my block, one a musician, who bought their apartments for $250 (not K, $250) from the city in the early 80s.

I wouldn't mind more grit, especially if it chased away the meatheads, but I certainly wouldn't want more danger. There was a murder in the courtyard of the PJs on 13th and C back in April (I think that was the month). It got very little coverage, but what was reported called it a dispute over money. http://neithermorenorless.blogspot.com/ described it as new, young dealers, killing one of the older guys for not relinquishing the turf. Wonderful. I think more grit will keep coming through this fiscal crisis, the question is, how much and what will it bring with it? I'm not going to say there isn't a lot I still love about the neighborhood, there is, so we'll see what happens as prices come down.

On a hopefully more upbeat (though off-topic) note, how are you enjoying your place?

> East Village. It never went up that much to begin with and there's zero inventory of good units.

But isn't that the point... its pretty awful housing stock. I think folks paid extra for years because of the cool factor, and thats pretty much done at this point.

I think in the crash, it will get recognized for what it is (as will most of the city) - a place far from the subway with some pretty crappy apartments.

Thanks tenemental. My jaw dropped at that $250 sentence. Someone should alert all the posters who revel in the downturn news here that someone may have actually made some kind of profit in real estate! Anyway, I still like the EV a lot, even with some of the changes you listed up there. I think you can find a nice balance of old-school grit and safety on several blocks there. Would love to hear your thoughts when you start seriously bidding again.

As for my new place, I have to say I like Williamsburg even more than I thought I would. I believe in the area - there's just been too much established in the past few years for this all to be swept away, even with a prolonged downturn. Northside has all the amenities I've needed so far, though it's only been a month, and I haven't looked for a good dry cleaner yet. I was at the mercy of the L this week, but for the most part, it's way better than advertised (my worst train memories are from waiting for the B or C when I was living on W 74th). My unit's had next to no problems yet (no jinx please) though I know my neighbors have had a few issues here and there. New construction isn't for the faint of heart, that much I know, and I'm not sure I'd do it again, given the closing headaches (and from what I know, mine was relatively painless), but I am happy so far and don't plan on doing this whole buying thing for at least 5 years. I will be following the market like the amateur enthusiast I am though!

I think Williamsburg will stay pretty cool as a neighborhood, but there are just waaaay too many apartments, and waaay too much expansion of the borders of the neighborhood for prices to hold...

check this
http://www.luxuryloft.com/files/luxuryletters/LUXURYLETTER_AUGUST_2008.pdf
if their numbers are meaningful they suggest (contrary to so many posts here) that the 1 to 2 million range property is still going up and the upper end is declining. Seems reasonable in a way since the demand/supply is potentially most unbalanced at the low end of nice

bjw2103, happy to hear you're enjoying your place.

http://www.luxuryloft.com/files/luxuryletters/LUXURYLETTER_AUGUST_2008.pdf

joedavis, this is GRAND! Relying on a newsletter from PDE! With bold headlines such as, "WHY SUPER-LUXURY MAY BE CHEAP" and "THE GLOBAL COUNTRY CLUB."

You know, they just confirmed ice on Mars. Maybe now's the time to drive in your stakes!

stevehjx - but is that Martian ice blessed by Benedict XVI or JPII?

Dude, this joedavis is clearly a shill. He posted the same "news" (from brokers) on another thread in the same way, and convenient missed that its on a "segment" of the market the broker shills can define any way they want.

You know the market is fucked when they have to doctor up the stats!