Huge Price Drops Today

No, No, No...I just saw this listing on streeteasy small studio listed for $499,500. It closed in '05 for $222,500. Where is the drop????

Julia, new listings are ridiculous and optimistically priced by nature. look at the closing price when/if it ever sells.

Julia--just watch. That place'll never move without significant drops, if it moves at all.

julia just doesnt get it...

no, she doesn't.

now i know who will be first in line to catch the falling knife

I looked on this site and I have noticed many price decreases. Also the inventory is continuing to pile up. If you look on this site the stats are there RE in NYC is going down. How far will remain to be seen but this is when you invest as the prices begin to drop. Make no mistake I am not saying its going to go to zero, 10 or 25% but the declines have already been happening. Just ask the person who listed this apartment http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/232836-coop-241-west-108th-street-manhattan-valley-new-york thats a huge price drop from its original listing in a nice neighborhood.

Personally I am going to wait for another 6 months because I believe more price declines will follow. I may find an apartment I may not the worst that could happen is I have more cash on the sidelines to find another investment opportunities.

NYC RE will rebound as it did after 9/11 much like then prices dropped dramatically and presented great opportunities. If you are patient Julia you will find the right apartment and don't pay asking price for anything available no matter how much you like it. After all its only an apartment.

Julia,

I think you need to be patient. All hell is breaking loose in the financial markets and that is going to eventually translate to a long and slow price drop in NYC.

I would continue to look at 2002-4 pricing of places you are interested in and sit back and wait.

Julia absolutely gets it, she can't sell it.

Julia is a broker.

that wouldn't surprise me at all...

Help!!! I'm only stating what I've found. I sold my studio and am renting in hopes of buying a one bedroom...but I have not seen seen anything close to a price drop. I hope I'm wrong. I'm a small business owner, not a broker.

Julia - If you are serious, please describe the apartment you are seeking: price range, property type/age, location, amenities, layout and any other details you think are pertinent.

For extra credit (and credibility), you can tell us the address of your old studio. :o)

I s your small business a brokerage?

I do have to agree with Julia asking prices by and large have not come down. It's like turning around a battle ship that's been torpedoed and all hands are willing to go down with the ship. But slowly there will be defectors who will look for the lifeboat and soon after they will be leaping into the cold shark infested waters where they will be gobbled up and then the final holdouts will finally take the plunge only to sink into the fridgid depths of the abyss. Yep, that's what will happen.

Prices will come down. The question is how much.

julia just doesnt get it...

jim123
no, she doesn't.

Oh, I quite disagree. I think julia gets it just fine. I just think she has a vested interest in this - realtor, or foolishly made a purchase recently - and cannot accept what is about to happen. In much the same way your dog would not be able to accept what's about to happen if you could somehow explain what's in store as you drive him to the vet to get neutered...

I'm confused by Julia's narrative.

Eighteen months ago, she was an out-of-towner considering a long-distance, sight-unseen purchase:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/1040-long-distance-purchase

Fourteen months ago - still looking:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/2070-real-estate-lawyer-reccomendations

Thirteen months ago - still looking, still debating whether to rent or buy, and even picking fights with Spunky:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/2236-manhattan-prices-going-up

The saga continues:

At some point, I think Julia decided to rent; but six months ago she was debating again - this time about a 1BR:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/3228-should-i-rent-a-2br-in-nyc-instead-of-buying-one

Five months ago, she was sill pondering a 1BR, this time as an "upgrade":
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/3428-what-happened

Now the studio is sold, and Julia is renting, waiting for the market to drop.

When did Julia buy, and where? When did she sell? All very mysterious. Is there more than one Julia? Or is there one Julia with several conflicting stories?

owned

Julia LOVES the attention she gets here. And you are giving it to her, West81st!!!

NY is always the last one to go. But it is starting to go. And the bottom is nowhere in sight. I am talking here 5 to 10 years. The usual in RE.
Trust me. I have seen ups and downs for a few cycles> This one is the nastiest. Just delayed in NYC.
Part of this delay I think is the dishonest market conditions created by NY brokers.
This is starting to change with sites like this one.
STAY AWAY FROM BUYING.

Julia, whether an avatar or AI entity has a point: where exactly are these 50% price drops that so many denizens of the easy are predicting. So for all of you with your magic 8 Balls, where are the NY Metro Case-Schiller numbers going to be tomorrow? (Yes, I know they don't have a lot to do with Manhattan, but they are still informative. Plus you you trade futures based on them [Yes, I know the open interest is not huge, but I have made money trading them]).

(1) As a newcomer to this site, I would just like to note that it makes little sense to attack Julia personally (i.e., she "doesn't get it") when it appears that she is just asking for input. If you observe something contrary to what she reports, say that. If you find unwarranted the obseration-based conclusions about which she worries, say that. The Internet has turned us all into attack machines instead of reasonable conversationalists, and it gets in the way of the useful discourse found on this site. (Sorry. It's become a pet peeve for me.)
(2) I have been looking leisurely for a co-op for more than two years (no pressing need to move) and I watched asking prices and selling prices go up and up in the midtown and UES neighborhoods I favor. Right after Labor Day, I noticed what seemed to be a big jump in the asking prices of properties that were coming on the market in those areas. I dispaired and, given the odd economic times, was a little offended at what appeared to be sellers/brokers being, well, pigs. (Sorry. Breached my own code of civility.) I settled with the kinder approach, concluding that they just were "overreaching" but fretting that no adjustment or correciton would come and Manhattan prices would continue to defy reason. Now, nearly every single one of those new properties that caused me dispair a few weeks ago has already had a reduction in asking prices. The asking prices were so excessive though, that I fear the sellers will take a long time to comprehend how much lower they will have to set their sights.

nyc212: Thanks - I'll stop feeding.

Getting back to the topic of the thread, I've seen a few massive price reductions since Friday, and some are on apartments that were not crazily priced before. A few examples:

Reduced $375K, or 19.2%: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/229038-condo-200-riverside-boulevard-lincoln-square-new-york (reduced $725K, or 31.5%, since July 29th, $600K since September 12th).

Reduced $195K, or 9.8%: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/290759-condo-62-west-62nd-street-lincoln-square-new-york (reduced $775K, or 30.1%, since July 22nd).

Reduced $360K, or 8.8%: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/252606-condo-500-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york (reduced $575K, or 13.8%, since September 4th). Well, OK, that one may still be overpriced...

For good measure, I'll throw in my favorite from last week -
Reduced $346K, or 21.7%: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/228712-coop-444-central-park-west-manhattan-valley-new-york

Wow, I didn't realize that Julia had changed her story like mad. Smells like a clear shill to me...

And keep 'em coming, W81...

I think we've finally hit "that* time...

"MOTIVATED SELLER. OWNER WANTS TO SELL. BRING OFFERS!!"

Here is a price drop by $100K just today http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/349126-coop-175-east-79th-street-upper-east-side-new-york There is a sense of urgency if you dont sell now you may have to wait another year or 2. So keep looking I know I am

I still dont see a 70% drop from today's prices guys...the people on these boards claiming the sky will fall in nyc real estate are nuts...it will go down another 10-20% over the next two years, remain flat for another couple then start creeping up again...this market is very different than the 1987 nyc we knew and found dirty dangerous and dubiously budgeted for...

I know apts in my building are still being rented out way higher than 6 months ago...rents here are going up though i am in a desirable neighborhood in a great building in Manhattan...

Sellers have the smallest buyer market ever, this will be an amazing down turn in prices over the next 3-6 months.

West81st - Nice catch on Julia! That is pretty funny. I am curious to see if she surfaces again.

nice screenname sky is falling #6. prices won't crash because sellers wont be willing to sell at crash like numbers...sorry but a quick crash makes no sense.

hey pathetic bears...look how they swoop down like vultures on Julia....make themselves feel good with their own rhetoric..see below:

Fed injecting billions = Massive Inflation = More Money Supply = Higher Asset Prices...it's called too much money chasing too few goods = HIGHER PRICES FOR MANHATTAN APTS...it's coming...better buy soon...:)

http://www.truegotham.com/

ah, Cheetah. Get comfortable, have a nice cup of tea, sit back and watch. You're in for a great show.

"it will go down another 10-20% over the next two years, remain flat for another couple then start creeping up again...this market is very different than the 1987 nyc we knew and found dirty dangerous and dubiously budgeted for.."

You're right about one thing: this market is very different from the 1987 nyc we knew.

Then, there were unregulated investment banks. Now, there are not. Then, prices had not gone up fivefold in ten years. Now, they have. Then there were co-op conversions flooding the market. Now, there are multi-million dollar new development condominiums aimed at a target buyer who no longer exist. Then there were very few market rentals. Now, between market rental buildings and co-ops, there are thousands. Then, rent regulation reduced total supply. Now, in Manhattan, rent regulation has been virtually eviscerated. Then, there was equilibrium between incomes and prices. Now, there is not. Then, interest rates were high. Now, there is no credit at any rate.

I could go on. This is the perfect storm.

"market rental buildings and co-ops"

I mean, "and condos."

Marco, 175 e 79: down $100 in 2 wks, but I think it's still over priced: it's a ground floor apt, must be dark & no view. Might have been the super's apt? It's not worth $650 with $1025 mntc. I'd value it at $350K to $400K (+/-).

steveF: "Swoop down like vultures"??? If somebody cites their personal circumstances as the basis for an assessment of the market, I think it's fair to check the consistency of that person's story.

I'm the last person to ask anyone to disclose personal information on an Internet board. My own persona here is mostly fictional, and I expect most people to likewise protect their anonymity. I don't care if somebody's story is BS, as long as they don't treat their BS story as though it were market data.

stevejhx did you live in nyc in 1987,ever visit the dirty dangerous and ugly East village back then, ever step onto a dity street and think wow I may be shot today or offered cocaine walking down a street in the union square area?

I doubt it. Things are much betre today which keeps the demand to be here waaayy up. that is the big problem with the crash problem theory.

Cheetah!! Thomkins Sq Pk was unsafe in the day & deadly at night. I look at it today & marvel. This type of transformation was a benefit of the bubble, although I prefer Times Sq sleezy, not Disney. Hey, remember taking a walk & being panhandled on every street, even in 'good' neighborhoods? I grew up here, so these are childhood memories.

RE goes in cycles, bust & boom. Not only are we at the the low part of the cycle, but we are at the bottom of the bubble, which has burst.

West81st...you're amazing.... Researching my blogs is not only rude but unkind. My questions did not always relate to me but questions that I wanted to know about.

"stevejhx did you live in nyc in 1987,ever visit the dirty dangerous and ugly East village back then, ever step onto a dity street and think wow I may be shot today or offered cocaine walking down a street in the union square area?"

Actually I was born in Queens and lived in the suburbs and not only do I remember NYC in 1987, I remember it in 1977 and 1967.

"Things are much betre today which keeps the demand to be here waaayy up."

Really? Well Las Vegas is just as desirable today as it was 30% ago. Other things besides cleanliness decide demand, such as income and the cost and availability of funds. You can have the most desirable city in the world, but when the factory closes, things tank.

Look at Liverpool, England as an example: once the richest city in the world, now with a beautiful housing stock from the Victorian era, yet prices are dirt cheap. Why? No jobs.

Manhattan? Decimation of Wall Street jobs & bonuses. Doesn't matter how nice it is; what matters is how affordable it is.

cheetah77, good point: Sellers who need not sell won't, so there'll be less inventory (less sales made), which could keep prices (IMO) higher than they should be.

Also: if byr can't get a mtg or if mtg rates are high, sales prices will have to decrease. I felt that prices are high because mtg rates are low. But if byr can't get a loan or mtg rates skyrocket, Sellers must reduce prices or not sell at all. Either way, transactions slow down.

the city is facing a tremendous loss in revenue, and that, coupled with a $6 billion shortfall anticipated before alot of this s**t came raining down, could defintitely effect the quality of life here. don't be so sure new york isn't immune. speaking as someone who's lived in the city my whole life and loves living here.

I remember the East Village in the 80s. Agreed, it is a COMPLETELY different place now.

But, we haven't seen city and state budget troubles like the kind we are in now since the 80s. We haven't seen such a kick to wall street.

Not saying we're going to get 1989 back, but the assumption that there will be no decline in what fueled quality of life here is illogical. There will be less money for cops and street cleanings. Murders and other serious crime were up before the panic. If this thing is prolonged, we will definitely take at least a few steps back.

shirsch,

For someone who has lived here a long time, what affects do you think Tourists have in making the city safer (more people on the street, more revenue, busier stores)

Did the crime used to come from outside the city to prey on rich city folks, or was it mainly from within?

Just trying to understand in what way crime may return to the city.

For example, I would say crime in San Francisco is caused by the liberal attitudes of the local government than anything else. Could a return to a more liberal Mayor be the largest affect?

Riley said: The asking prices were so excessive though, that I fear the sellers will take a long time to comprehend how much lower they will have to set their sights.

I have to agree with your opinion. Even worse than re-sales are the developers and their sales offices that I've interacted with. Most are arrogant and snotty with no understanding of what's going on in the market.

I love this market, but of course I like conflict.

West81st, you have such a nice taste! that 2br/2bth in 444 CPW is lovely. totally out of my league though, i'm renting a 2br/2bh for a little more than its maintenance costs (one that is not as nice as that one though but perfectly livable).

Admin: Thanks. Opinions vary about that stretch of CPW. It's somewhat isolated, which may give some folks pause - especially if crime starts to rise. For park-lovers who can't afford (or don't want) the prestigious buildings farther south, there's good value up there, and I think it will get even better.

A ray of hope....one bedroom..325 west 45th street listed a $449k just reduced $10k...Of course '05 it closed at $250k.

Inventory is really piling up. Developers are screwed! Credit is dry. This is worse then post 9/11 as far as RE goes. Even with the crash of the 80's credit was not this bad. Credit is what moves the RE market. My opinion prices will fall at least 20% on new developments in Manhattan, at least 40% on new developments in Brooklyn/LIC and NJ, forget about it, NJ is screwed. That Trump project in Jersey City is only half-full according to an article last week. If you are selling in NYC you are back to 2002-2003 prices for now and going lower once March rolls around. Anyone bullish here is either not honest or lives in a cave.

Going Down: Good call

Julia Congdon, Ardor Realtor, where are you?!

West81, great information as always. Question for people - some of the apartments West links list 10% down. Given what I understand about how hard it is now to qualify for a mortgage, do you believe all brokers' listings suggesting 10% down is acceptable are unrealistic?

I'll know we hit bottom when prices start to go up agian. Until then, I wait and watch.

admin - I have to ask. Where/how are you renting a 2-bed 2-bath for a little more than $1500/month?

Here are a couple of drops / removals from market...

http://cityfile.com/dailyfile/2202

newbuyer99, in harlem

This party is over. The correction in real estate in new york city will be compounded by the weakening Euro. The drop in nyc real estate will be unlike any other asset class correction that has ever existed. Net worths will be decimated. Welcome to the jungle. If you think the low crime rate will help, wait until it skyrockets. Desperate times call for desperate measures. It changes people, especially those who can't afford to live. CAVEAT EMPTOR. Your down payment may be better spent in Miami or Vegas at this point. Buy where there is fear, sell where there is greed.

I don't think its going to get THAT dire... but it doesn't need to to see a significant decline. Even just a little wearing off of the shine, added into folks coming to the realization that RE isn't much of an "investment" anymore knocks a whole lot of perceived value off of buying. Oh yeah, and that whole mortgage trick.