So, if I'm reading the board's sentiment correctly, the "acceptable" time to begin buying Manhattan real estate on a perceived bottom tick is - at the earliest - February 2010, the logic being, clueless developers and the city as a whole will by then have come to terms with all of the economy's collateral damage. Collateral damage prompting price depreciation includes, but is not limited to:

1) Faltering tax revenue

2) Deteriorating services

3) Escalating crime

4) Roubini's 2 year (minimum) recession prediction

5) Hedge fund implosions

6) Restructured compensation schedules at the "new" Goldman (no more admins pulling $300k ) and MS (if MS is still around).

Is this more or less correct . . . I need to wait one full business cycle for the reality of shit comp to really damage developer's psyche?

I would think that that would be the minimum. Remember, the highs (in real estate) are fairly hard to peg, the lows, fairly easy. Just keep paying attention, without (or even with) another bubble, it shouldn't be hard to see when prices have stabablized (just don't rush in, they'll go up and down a few times, no hury).

It's not "shit comp to really damage developer's psyche." It's, well, if you don't get it, you don' get it.