New Condo Developments

no way anyone can answer that without a ton more info.

Why not?
Seems all the experts here are predicting 20/30/50% declines based on information they have now.

I don't feel comfortable disclosing much more info, especially since this is a public forum, and i also own a large unit in the area, and don't want to curse myself! Anyhow, I'm just trying to figure out a 'reasonable' price to initially bid out, seeing as the priced the unit back in early '08/late '07 and none have sold. Any help is appreciated. I just want to appropriately discount the risk I am taking on.

gramercygrl, it's difficult (for me anyway) to provide guidance on how & what to negotiate specially w/o being at all familiar with the property.

Personally, I would chop off the $240 behind the $1K for starters and the price would include the parking space. You're taking a risk of being the first & only sale on the project. One can always increase an offer but it's far more difficult to decrease it. If they turn down your initial offer, leave them a number in case they decide to come to their senses after a cold shower. If they are serious, they will counter and if it were me, I would not budge from the initial offer...perhaps I would meet them half way on the parking space at some point in the negotiations but that would be the limit of my generosity.

You have the cash and they have an illiquid asset in a project with zero sales. You are in the driver's seat by a long shot. I'm always more than willing to walk away from a transaction. At some point, the right deal will come your way so be patient.

Good hunting!

One more thing. Do not trust the seller's advertised square footage which I highly doubt would be on the conservative side of the equation. Best to have it determined by an independent third party.

Serge07, thank you so much!

Start by taking 27% off any pre-October asking price and go from there. Or wait until March when the seller is dying to sell and then take 35% off.

>Serge07, thank you so much!<

You're more than welcome! Stay tough. They have to sell & you have the obvious ability to take your sweet time. :)

Best of luck.

my guess is: 316 East 22nd.
Agree with above posters...bid should be no more than $1k/sq ft = $2.4mln (if not start lower at $900/sq ft) and includes the parking. I'd also go in asking them to waive the new development transfer tax. Be patient. You have the complete upper hand in this situation. You have the cash and hopefully the time. Start around $900/sq ft and don't pay more than $1,050. Unique building but not everyone loves the neighborhood. You also have the numerous new development highrises that have gone up on 23rd (the one above MCD's which is a failure from the investor/buyers perspective) and Tempo going up on the corner of 23rd and 2nd which i'm sure is going to have a difficult time and most likely turn rental. There is also a deep hole on 20th and 2nd that I assume will be some new rental building in the next 2 years assuming construction can finish. To each their own and I actually like the neighborhood very much but it is far from "prime" and certainly does not warrant above average pricing. I see avg prices going back to $1k/sq ft if not below so if you can wait a little while you will get a good price. Also, is there a 421 tax abatement? I sure hope not - those are going to crush the people who bought recently at these astronomical prices as the abatement expires. Right now the $1,300/sq ft pricing is not that bad b/c your monthlies are so low but try selling that when the monthlies have quadrupled if not more. Is there a doorman? The general message I'm trying to get across is: wait wait wait. Bid very low - low enough so if they hit you on it there will be no regrets. If not, wait it out - the price will come to you.

Tempo only has 3 contracts out, none signed, and they are all lower than what the initial asks are. The condo development i'm speaking of is unique--there is no doorman, but there is a private garage below (extra $175k, unreasonable considering my garage now for my big SUV is only $360/mo). There is no abatement, and the taxes ARE NOT cheap. The finishes are not very high end, but the space is good.

The neighborhood is definately less than perfect--there is low income housing a building over, the transvestide home diagonally accross the street and the methadone clinic around the corner--makes for a real adventure when i'm walking my dogs at 5am! And, there is low income housing on 25th and 2nd as well.

We saw the penthouse 3 bedroom in Stark, way too small, but amazing terrace, but the kitchen are awful (it was totally built/catered towards the Rich Wall Street Hedge Fund Trader who subsequently blew up being long oil), otherwise it's a nice building, and full of ammenities, as will be Tempo. Tempo is re-doing their offering plan to include 2,000+ sq ft 3 bedrooms, which is more like it, but I do think in this market they will opt to rent many of the unit than break $1,000/ft beacuse I firmly believe Tempo will be in the negative below $1,000/ft.

So I was right? I think you need to take a step back and take a deep breath and realize exactly where we all are and ask yourself where will we be a year from now, 2 years from now, 5 years from now. Granted 5 years out is an eternity these days but I think 1-2 years from now we will probably be exactly where we are now if not worse off. Certainly real estate prices will be lower. We don't know what the job situation will be etc. For $3mln you can probably sacrifice maybe some space with a doorman, or the parking with a ICON garage a block away, methadone clinic around the corner with a Whole Foods etc etc. You get my point...I think the best thing you can do is hold on for a little while until the dust sort of settles. That apartment is not flying off the shelf and if you happen to miss it to another buyer there will be others. Also, over a little more time you may change your thoughts on where exactly you want to live and what is important to you - location, space, amenities etc etc. For that kind of money I believe you will have a nice selection to choose from. Also, what happens if you are the only one buying in the building? What if the remaining units turn rental? I would love to be in your situation - you can sit back and assess the situation without any outside forces pushing you to making poor decisions. Since you really like the building etc...maybe go and make an offer of like $2mln including the parking and see what they say...at least get a reaction that way you fulfill your urge and interest in the building and get a sense of the sellers thinking so you know what you are getting yourself into in the future.

I've lived on 22nd street since 2001 i'm not going anywhere, except maybe further west! We'll see what happens, I was just curious to see what everyone had to say. Thanks for your input

gramercygrl how can you see Tempo has three contracts out?

BTW - Tempo construction has halted and the 'NYC Strike Rat' is now posted out front.

gramercygrl how can you see Tempo has three contracts out?

BTW - Tempo construction has halted and the 'NYC Strike Rat' is now posted out front.

I called Tempo and spoke with them. As of two days ago they had just one signed contract. They have gotten offical approval from the city for a larger 2,000 sq ft 3 bedroom, which will be offered on floors 10-12 I believe. Construction has not stopped, trust me, I walked my dogs past it just a few hours ago and they were there. Their contractors are non unionized workers.

this is just another reason why manhattan is not as gentrified and upscale as chicago. you have low income housing and sketchy people right next to "luxury" condos! there are very few areas of manhattan that are truly upscale.

You are confused.

In New York, poor people live in housing scattered among the rich people, but more likely in other areas.

In Chicago, poor people live in the best buildings... because Chicago is mostly poor. Don't know how everyone being poor makes it "upscale".

nyc10022, once again you have no idea what you're talking about. in NYC a lot of luxury rental buildings are 80/20, which means 20% of people who live there are officially poor because that's the government's requirement. Chicago does NOT have this program, which means that the people who live in the nice buildings can actually afford to live there.

think about this for a few minutes because i know it's tough for you to understand.

Rufus what does your therapist say about your massive Chicago complex?

You clearly feel as if Chicago is inferior given how many times you try to prove that there is a better equivalent to every building in NYC in Chicago.

Why are you so obsessed with the words 'luxury', 'upscale' and 'gentrified'?

Does attaching that label to an inanimate object like a building make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside? Or does it make the voices in your head go away?

i'm with rufus. i hate poor people. if it was up to me, i would round them all up, put them on a big stinkin cruise-ship, and leave them stranded in the middle of the atlantic. i think the private park in gramercy has it right: just gate the entire island of manhattan up. show me you sufficiently contribute to GDP or live in a different borough. i wanna be with just other rich white people. diversity is over-rated.

I suggest 20% discount. However, do not forget to sell your current place before you close as otherwise you may be stuck with two apartments in a declining market.

STFU, I think time to move out of this country, dude...especially that the next President is black. Either that or GET WITH THE PROGRAM!

"nyc10022, once again you have no idea what you're talking about. in NYC a lot of luxury rental buildings are 80/20, which means 20% of people who live there are officially poor because that's the government's requirement. Chicago does NOT have this program, which means that the people who live in the nice buildings can actually afford to live there.

think about this for a few minutes because i know it's tough for you to understand."

Rufus, you are a complete idiot. You missed the point.

The 20% poor folks have more money than the 100% of "rich" folks in the buildings in Chicago.
Poor people "can actually afford to live there" in this Chicago buildings because Chicago is cheap and undesirable.

So, I'll take 20% poor and 80% rich in NYC over the 100% poor in all the buildings in Chicago.

nyc10022, you're dumb if you think people living in the nice apartments in gold coast or streeterville are poor.

rufus, you're dumber to think we really care about Chicago. Nobody wants to move there no matter how much you hype it up. I don't know if there's any easier way to make you understand. If you can't get it, then you must really be S-L-O-W.

Rufus, let's work through the logic of this.

If people in Streeterville or Gold Coast were rich, they'd have the means to escape from Chicago and its myriad problems (plus total lack of upside) -- as Chicago's entire middle class has already done.

If they were too poor to leave, they'd stay where they are.

We can thus deduce that nyc10022 is completely correct -- the people in "20%" apartments in NYC are wealthier than the people living in market-rate housing in Streeterville, Gold Coast, and other parts of Detroit.

i vigorously defend my position with rufus. all i care about is luxury. diversity, personality, energy. all these things in a city are really a waste of time. all i want is rich white folks around. and some nice tall shiny new buildings. and a big mall where i can shop shop shop. sounds like heaven to me. imho, chicago is probably best for this.

LOL, STFU! I wonder why people like rufus who hates diversity even show up in this board. I'd expect he'll be talking exclusively to old, filthy rich, white folks from Chicago or pretty much his neighbors from his supposedly "luxury" apartment.

Rufus, I picture you and few buddies having a laugh at this site... "what can we say to really kick the hornet's nest? HA! look at'em all go nuts!"... only way I can justify your posts. If you really are from Chicago... why the hell would you live in NYC? Grow a left nut and go to the city you love for God's sake.

Adam, rufus lost his job in NYC. I dunno if he got laid off or fired, so he's back in Chicago and still bitter about it. He comes here to gripe and was looking for reassurance from this board that Chicago ain't that bad. So far, no luck.

cleanslate, you seem to think i am kidding. rufus and i are not kidding. we are unapologetic about how much nyc sucks. i too lost my job in new york. i was sitting at my cubicle scratching my ass, playing minesweeper, and my dirty boss -- who i'm almost 100% sure is POOR -- came up to me and gave me the boot. i nearly shit my burberry pants. i'm pretty sure he was just jealous of my luxurious life. another dirty 20%'ers that has messed up my 80% luxurious life. good riddance to him. nyc is over-rated, people.

stfu - so are wealthy white people.

LOL, STFU! That is so freaking hilarious! Unlike you though, rufus did sh!t his pants. Can you imagine going back to Chicago and freeloading with your folks?

"nyc10022, you're dumb if you think people living in the nice apartments in gold coast or streeterville are poor."

Well, they can't afford to live in New York or any decent city, so they certainly 'aint rich.

Their median income happens to also be lower than what you need to qualify to live in THE TOREN (you know, the building next to the projects in Brooklyn).

Nice company!

Sorry, I meant to specifically say that they're below the minimum income for even the SUBSIDIZED apartments at the Toren. They can't even make it into the 20%