Next year will have trace new inventory due to credit crunch.

Yes, perfect! Inventory will start slowing... THREE YEARS FROM NOW! Just in time!

ROTLF.

Sorry, but no. Per Crain's, 2008 and 2009 will actually be the two peak building years for residential construction. The record for permits in a month was only a few months ago...

We've got YEARS before this inventory starts clearing out.

Who still tosses out that "huge addition in inventory" story about the '80's? It shows a clear ignorance of the NY market at that time. The huge increases came about because of all the rent-stabilized stock that was converted to co-ops due to favorable tax laws for the conversion. The proof is in the population of NY. No 100,000's moved to Manhattan in those 5 or so years to scoop up all that new construction because it just didn't happen. Mostly rent stabilized tenants became co-op owners.

> Who still tosses out that "huge addition in inventory" story about the '80's?

Its called bulls in denial...

Just in case it wasn't absolutely clear...

today's AMNY:
"The New York City Building Congress, a construction industry trade group, predicts the city will add 35,700 housing units through new construction this year. That’s the highest total since the mid-1960s, said Richard T. Anderson, the group’s president. “Twelve years ago the entire city of New York built about 4,000 units per year and just the last three years it’s been about 30,000 a year,” he said."

So based on what's been posted so far, NYC inventory levels today are unprecedented.

Question is, how does the population of potential buyers compare today w 20 years ago?

steveF posts knowing that those inventory numbers from the 80's include ALL co-op conversions, whether the tenants actually bought or not. For that reason they are fake - only 15% of owners had to agree to purchase under a non-eviction plan - and also because no units actually changed hands. All that changed was the form of tenancy.

Our current inventory figures are unprecedented given the current take-up rate.

agreed on both points.

> Question is, how does the population of potential buyers compare today w 20 years ago?

Relatively smaller (and singificantly, I believe given 1) more effective inventory (given yuppie expansion into more areas) 2) current MUCH higher prices and 3) a return to incomes of years back.

nyc10022, is there evidence that income have begun/will return to those of 'years back'? (other than Wall St bonuses being cut)

Also, given the expansion into more areas of the city, and more families having stayed here, are those folks all of a sudden going to pick up and leave?

I agree w the basis of your views, just trying to gauge supply/demand/affordabilty factors btw now & then.

It's one thing to look at inventory, another to look at the other side of the ratio