It’s Official: Recession Started One Year Ago

just be careful on predicting the back half of this slowdown. Im not sure it will be a V type recovery. Its quite unlike other slowdowns we have experienced in the past few decades. This is full blown credit deflation, consumer driven, with broken securitization model, and massive deleveraging with more to come before its over.

Endgame will likely bring

a) end result of all fed actions
b) a new regulated credit market
c) regulated/tight lending
d) perception damage to housing as an asset class

Consumer will still be ridden with debt, and we dont know if there are more surprises yet. But yes, stocks will likely start rising before the data turns around and gets better.

Also, isnt increase in conforming lifting this dec?

True enough, stocks rise and things still go sour for Joe the Plumber for at least a year or so.

> Im not sure it will be a V type recovery. Its quite unlike other slowdowns we have experienced in
> the past few decades.

Agreed. We can't start a new housing bubble to get us out of this one, like we did in 2001.

2001 is probably the biggest problem with this recession. It gave so many people a false idea of what recessions look like - it was over before the collateral damage happened - and I think thats been slowing some of the bottoming... making it even worse potentially.