All you Bulls on these boards I salute your strength..

Take a testosterone pill and call me in the morning.

wait--foolishness is strength?

no--responding to market conditions in a non hysterical way is strength. Good post, SteveF.

Faith? We're turning to God now to fix our mess? Fear may not be the best option, but I'm not sure faith should be its substitute.

eah--why is bullishness "non hysterical." no one should be hysterical--neither bulls, nor bears, nor agnostics. but people should base their views and actions on evidence.

i am very much a contrarian when it comes to investing--when everyone decides that NY real estate is never coming back, is doomed, and is the worst possible place to invest, then i will know it is time to buy. those of you who bought between 2005-2008 and would rather pretend things are great than face facts are not strong. You are ostriches.

"Janice Dorn, M.D., Ph.D., is a financial psychiatrist and chief global risk strategist for Ingenieux Wealth Management"

That says a lot to me.

there is money to be made in every market. there is money to be made in this RE market.

Warren Buffet says " you should be greedy when everyone else is afraid, and afraid when everyone else is greedy"

Everyone is afraid of RE right now. There is historically low financing available and historically high inventory. Good pickings....

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/6243-manhattan-prime-up-373-yty-114-post-glut-coverimplementation-of-new-safety-building-codes

jane will save us.

petrfitz,

the fact that you just aid there are "good pickings" in real estate is part of the evidence that NOT everyone is afraid of real estate...yet. wait until the bear/bull ratio is 9/1--that's capitulation. right now is the holding period, the collapse is yet to come.

happyrenter - you sound afraid. very afraid. so afraid you are paralyzed the only thing that you can do is post doom and gloom on this board while others are investing and making money

petrfitz - where are the good pickings? Pitt Street?

" financial psychiatrist and chief global risk strategist for Ingenieux Wealth Management"

save us

i love the bears, they make it so much easier for us. we should all follow the crowd and forget the silver lining. what they fail to see is they should've been a quiet bear in 06-07 when everyone was a bull.

now that everyone's a bear, they show their bear stripes AFTER the fact. uhm, are they unaware of below? catch me at goldbar, episode 3, pre-anniston.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZW0q-Yze-8

'Warren Buffet says " you should be greedy when everyone else is afraid, and afraid when everyone else is greedy"

Everyone is afraid of RE right now. There is historically low financing available and historically high inventory. Good pickings....'

Warren Buffet lives in the same house he bought in the 50's. Maybe you are aware of some secret real estate holdings that he has next to your tenements but I don't think his quote was regarding the NY real estate market.

thefed...please shhhh ;)

Warren Buffett also says, "Don't catch a falling knife."

Real estate deflates much more slowly than other, liquid assets. Buy if you like, on Essex Street.

perfitz,

actually, i am not afraid at all. i SOLD my apartment in 2007, slightly more than doubled my money from the purchase I made in 2003 (too bad I was a high school senior in 1999; if i had bought then i would have quadrupled my money). now i rent a nicer apartment and pay half per month what the poor shmo who bought my old place pays. nothing to be afraid of here.

as for 'everyone else making money,' umm, have you paid attention to the markets for the past year? who exactly are these "others" who have made so much money investing these past 12 months? warren buffet is NOT saying that it is bad to be fearful--his whole point is that it is GOOD to be fearful at the right time. i wish i had been more afraid last summer; had i cashed out my equities more aggressively i'd be richer now.

there are very strong arguments to be made that now is a good time to invest--not in ny real estate, but in equities. no guarantee they won't come down a lot further, of course, but i think high quality companies like GE, PM, KO, could be great buys right now. manhattan real estate that still has not depreciated more than 20% from a huge bubble? no.

2005-2008 ... i didn't buy my primary residence then. am i still an ostrich? anyway i did buy three properties in that time period as i buy a an investment property every year. i know a few people who purchased their primary residence in that time period and i don't sense panic from them. i dont know much about petrfitz but i agree with his basic sentiment - that there is always money to be made. i would assume someone who doubled their money as you did would have a more sunny disposition and a more philospohical/balanced view of the market right now. i also dont think buffet was saying be fearful, if you read most of his books he says not to time markets or invest in anything that you're not an expert on.

happyrenter..first, no one cares about your life story.

second, Stocks vs Real Estate..Real Estate wins hands down. Unless you can tear apart financial statements and understand every aspect that can effect your business, including economics, than real estate is the way to go. You don't have to be a genius to realize that inflation and money supply will increase, populations will grow, the planet is getting smaller and people luv the Manhattan lifestyle. The best part is being able to sleep at night while your wealth accumulates and your mortgage is being paid of by some fearful renter.

steve is right about one thing...renters can be a little relectant to move. i am stunned not one of my reters has asked for lower rent or concessions from me. i am not saying all renters are feaful but i think intertia does set in people just stay put.

eah, me either, I have no lower rent requests or concessions. It's true, the easily fearful cower back into the hole and do........nothing.

i also do not have any lower rent requests. all apartments are filled.

stevef,

you yap on about your life story all the time, and perfitz clearly DOES care about my life story, since he is saying that i am fearful and that i am hoarding my cash while other people are striking it rich investing in real estate.

and by the way: "you don't have to be a genius to realize the planet is getting smaller." actually, i think most geniuses realize, along with the rest of us, that the size of the planet has been more or less constant for the last 4 billion years. I didn't need to graduate summa from Harvard to understand that--but then, you don't want to hear about my life story.

eah, i should have a sunny disposition about the future of the market because i did well in it before? that just doesn't make any sense. i made a lot of money in freddy mac stock. fortunately, i sold it several years before the company completely destructed and my investment would have gone to zero. circumstances change. NYC benefited from an amazing confluence of events from, say, 1995-2007, and, like most markets, things went overboard and a bubble formed. Now we are reaping the results.

Buying an investment property in NYC every single year is fine if that's what you like to do, and it sounds like you have made good returns doing it, but it isn't really a sophisticated investment strategy (I am assuming that this is not your primary profession. If it is, and you run a serious real estate business, then I understand why you specialize in this way). Aren't there ever years when property is more attractive in Jersey City? Or when the bond market is beaten down? Or when some great company you happen to know a lot about has been decimated in the equity market?

I'm glad you guys are sharing your life stories :). I just requested and got a 5% rent reduction from my landlady for the coming year.

"Gentlemen, it has been an honor playing with you tonight."

- Attributed to the leader of the Titanic band as they finished their last set with "Nearer My God to Thee".

"I'm glad you guys are sharing your life stories :). I just requested and got a 5% rent reduction from my landlady for the coming year."

your $USD fell 10%, conservatively, this year. your landlord just increased your rent by 5%. if you are happy renting, please continue doing so. i don't judge, and think the "homeowner mentality" is overrated myself.

actually, the dollar went up this year against most major currencies...if you mean that you think we have had 10% inflation, i don't see any evidence of that.

i am very happy renting, although truth be told i was also very happy owning.

you don't go to germany for groceries do you? though some of your fruit may be grown there, domestic cpi hasn't lagged behind the buck.

so you think we have had 10% or more inflation this year? that makes no sense. actually, as i read it again your whole post makes no sense. if the purchasing power of a dollar declined 10%, that means even if my rent stayed the same i would be paying 10% LESS in rent. I would be getting the same thing for 10% less purchasing power. Wow, I actually got a 15% decrease!

happy renter--i guess you're new onthe board. i own real estate all over the world because, I agree, that NYC is not always the best place. and, no, it is not my primary profession. ou can share your life story all you want, i like knowing from where people draw their opinions. but, seriously, most renters are not like you. not one rent reduction request. i have no idea why. i will post when one comes in.

happyrenter is 100% right about the 15% though. If there was 10% inflation this year (which I haven't heard about either) it does mean he's paying 15% lower rent, effectively. ss400k's arguments aren't making much sense.

steveF, I care about happyrenter's story. I also want him to get his classic six in prime GV. I would have sold, too, except a) I love my apt and bldg and bought at a great price, b) I figured if I sold it would be too risky that a similar unit in my building would be available to buy in the next year or two, and c) while I anticipated a r/e market decline, I figured it would be a 10-15% drop max. Just as eah thinks there is renter's inertia to move, I definitely have buyer's innertia - I really don't want to rent again, even if temporarily.

"Everyone is afraid of RE right now. There is historically low financing available and historically high inventory. Good pickings...."

Nationally, perhaps.

Manhattan, not even close. Hell, look at this damn thread.

Btw, note that perfitz pulled out the same buffet quote and tried to apply it to RE months back... yet another prediction that tanked for perfitz.

love the article.
market fundamentals are messed up - so take a testosterone pill. that should do ya.