williamsburg supply and demand

hmmm....

re: your short sale, unless the original loan was a negative am and no money down, the numbers don't add up. if they put 10% down. the current loan should clock at less than 550K. Short that 10% and you've got a lowball offer of 495K. the excuse "the bank won't go lower" smells like funk to me.

another thing to keep in mind is that pesky global warming - a lot of williamsburg is low-lying will suffer if sea levels rise over the next 10-20 years. seems like a distant reality but nowadays every time it rains the freaking 1 train flash floods! so I'd tread carefully with buying basement units. I think you can find flood zone info at nyc.gov.

I looked at williamsburg myself but think I'll be able to hang loose for another 6 months a squeak into a decent a 1 bed in manhattan as prices come down.

Thanks for the insight. Is 10%-below-mortgage a fairly standard cutoff for banks?

Williamsburg look pretty okay, flood-wise. Greenpoint, Southwest Queens, Tribeca and Soho seem worse. South Williamsburg is a local maxima. But thanks again, I hadn't even considered flooding in my mental balance sheet.

http://home2.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hurricane_map_english.pdf

I think recent worst-case scenarios have water levels rising 3 feet in the next century. I'm willing to gamble NYC will be alright at least until we figure a workaround or I kick the bucket.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94273237

djradon Supply and Demand applies across America gheez across the globe and not just WillyB LOL I know you know this Mr. DJ. Williamsburg will continue to build partly, because Mayor Bloomberg wants to (hopefully he will be the Ex-Mayor comes next election). The worse has yet to come, prices will be lower mid 2009 and we will have more supply and less demand. If WillyB converts the Domino Sugar Factory to luxury condos or co-ops which will be available for rent it will drive prices down for the long run. Ismael Leyva a luxury building in Greenpoint was slated to be 30 stories CB1 voted to make it 40 stories LOL do you see where I'm going? On curbed.com they have a story about catching a falling knife LOL why purchase a depreciating asset, prices will continue to fall through 2010 shit 2012. Those condo sales that have dwindled seem fudged to me.

politikat Thanks for the info on a short sale.

Sure, supply-and-demand applies everywhere. It just seem that Wburg, as much as I want to buy here, has the worst imbalance of anywhere in the city.

Why do you say the numbers looked fudged? Seems they're exactly like you'd expect, mutombonyc.

Williamsburg does have a negative imbalance and its sad. A relative told me 1+1=2 and when 1+1=3 it has to reset itself until 1+1=2 the laws of nature can only be defied for so long i.e supply and demand. Did you hear of the Edge selling the most expensive Apt in Williamsburg or Brooklyn? Rumor has it the developer(s) purchased or put out they purchased the dual duplex or triplex penthouse totaling 6,000+ square feet for 5.something million dollars to create a PR frenzy. I personally know people who say they have a condo or a co-op and they are renters with a lease. Is rent paid on a condo or co-op? I have seen a lot of manipulating during this housing crisis i.e. the moratorium on foreclosures and this is were the fudging comes in. djradon you are cool best of luck to you purchasing your home and Great Blessing to you in it. I will be behind you in 2011 or 2012.

djradon,

check out this site and see all that the Wburg has on demand.

http://www.thedevelopersgroup.com/

Found these resources listing new devs "submitted" (?) through Oct 2007:

Greenpoint and Williamsburg: 2978
http://www.cbhk.com/market_data/marketDataDetail.asp?MDSID=63

E. Williamsburg: 1113
http://www.cbhk.com/market_data/marketDataDetail.asp?MDSID=100

So at least 4,000 new condo units on the market or under development. Probably somewhat higher since there was a big rush of new buildings started before the tax abatement deadline. For example 111 Kent is not on the list. Neither is that huge "Gateway to Williamsburg" and surrounding development at Union and Metropolitan.

At the 2008 pace, it would take 8 years to clear that inventory. At the Dec '08 pace, maybe 15 years.

One of these days I'll go through and tally by hand for more accuratacy.

One thing I will say... I believe the new dev is pretty much a good thing for the neighborhood. Sure, we're arguably uglier from an architectural standpoint, but sale prices and rents will go down, housing "quality" goes up, and the population can increase which should be good for new and existing businesses. Overcrowding on the L sucks, and we could use more parks, but I think all this over-development is a net positive for the area.

you should be understanding of the plum of toxic waste that travels through Greenpoint and into Williamsburg. Man yGreenpoint residents are not allowing the city into their homes for fear of chemical monitoring detecting toxins and therefore lowering their home value.

It is a pretty good guess that this toxic plum originates in Williamsburg where much commercial and chemical manufacturing took place before they started building those crappy glass condos

Mr. DJ condo a thing of the pass to an extent, a lot of folks were calling their rental apts condos because condo comes with a certain amount of prestige (I know folks who say they live in a condo and they are renters with a lease). NYC (USA) will be a renters haven if and when we get out of this depression. The sea of pink slips have not been handed out, in 2009 they will begin handing out the sea of pink slips.

Crime is going to be a factor in NYC driving out some of the Hipsters and Yuppies (as you know crime is taking place but is being kept quiet now that the city has turned left due to a poor economy). Prices on dwelling will continue to decline throughout WillyB. Some of these new buildings would take many years to fill at a full capacity and a lot of folks don't like the 80% 20% rule and a lot of folks don't like that they live across the street from the projects LOL in there expensive apartments. NYC is so unique that you can't come here in masses and think you are changing it. The middle class and the poor cannot be driven out of NYC who will operator the trains and buses? Who will pick up the garbage? Who will check out and stock at the supermarket? There are so many factors that will hinder NYC for the next few and more years is sickening.

Housing "quality" has gone up but look at the cost of it going up. An architech said he has no work because the city is full of new buildings LOL. A lot of industries will never be the same behind this fiasco i.e. banking, R.E. and so forth.

Anybody have an update on The Edge, and whether they are now negotiating prices and closing costs?
As early as a month ago, they were still steadfast in refusing to negotiate anything in terms of price.

Anybody have an update on The Edge, and whether they are now negotiating prices and closing costs?
As early as a month ago, they were still steadfast in refusing to negotiate anything in terms of price

No word yet.

perfitz: i read the times piece about people refusing inspections. it wasn't really williamsburg at all, except for perhaps the northern tip of east williamsburg. more importantly, i think epidemiological of higher cancer rates in greenpoint, bronx, place x, may be largely attributable to socio-economic reasons. Parts of Manhattan are more toxic in some ways than Greenpoint. And you know there've been plenty of dry-cleaning accidents on the island.

mutombonyc: one of my best friends is a scientist in "the projects." i love the 80/20. wish i could afford to support forward-thinking urban planning. "NYC is so unique that you can't come here in masses and think you are changing it..." not sure what you're trying to say here. "middle class and poor" have already been driven out of Manhattan, more-or-less.

there may be many factors "hindering" nyc, but i don't think you've identified anything that i can't deal with.... who cares whether industries will ever be the same. change is inevitable. new yorkers are resilient.

djradon this is why I like you.

Coming from or living in the projects does not identify someone i.e. Mr. Madoff even though he is only accused I highly assume he's from the projects.

NYC is so unique that you can't come here in masses and think you are changing it..." not sure what you're trying to say here.

This is what I'm saying:
It done came back to bite a lot of folks in the ass. People were chased out of NYC because they could not afford it now look at whats going on the chasers are being chased out of NYC now.

Self explanatory:
The middle class and the poor cannot be driven out of NYC - "who will operator the trains and buses? Who will pick up the garbage? Who will check out and stock at the supermarket?"

This is how they city functions not just NYC but all cities, towns, provinces and so forth. Someone told me all cannot be lawyers and doctors who will pick up garbage who will deliver mail? I know we all accummulate garbage and we all receive mail, do you get were I'm going? Thats why the middle class and the poor cannot be driven out of NYC and thats where the 80% 20% comes in but the young Hipsters and Yuppies don't realize this.

there may be many factors "hindering" nyc, but i don't think you've identified anything that i can't deal with

Not just you to deal with:

Thousand plus less jobs = more crime.
Banks are being robbed in NYC at alarming rates.
Females are being robbed in NYC at alarming rate.
The UES & UWS is seeing crime at alarming rates.
A waiter was stabbed in Kellogs Diner I think for a free meal.
We have all of these new luxury buildings and all this crime all that glitter is not gold.
Squatting will become a normal occurrence.

Hipsters and Yuppies done caught on to what the projects are and don't like that their overpriced apartments are across the street from the projects. Million dollar homes don't belong across the street from the projects its an imbalance.

All of this affects people of NYC whether its your parents, grandparents, brothers & sisters, nieces & nephews, cousins, neigbors, colleagues and the average citizen of NYC in transit.

All industries tie back to YOU whether its directly or indirectly. This life we live is a cycle one hand washes the other.

Change is inevitable and complacency kills. I'm 30 and lived in Brooklyn, NY all of my life, we are not a poor generation and are used to having. We are not geared for this depression that is here.

Nointerest, The Edge is not negotiating prices but prices have gone down a little but the price is still inflated.

FROM CRAIGSLIST

as the economy falls, jobs go offshore < superbone > 12/17 08:49:45

Let's face it, the Fed with monetary policy and the government with fiscal policy (ie. infrastructure-rebuilding spending, tax cuts, etc), and the incredibly fast drop in the price of gas...

1) yes, will stimulate the economy

2) no, will not restore U.S. prosperity.

There is an underlying trend. Make the trend your friend if you can.

The underlying trend is a downward spiral in U.S. wages.

U.S. wages are declining due to influx of foreign workers, such as H1-B visa-holders, and illegals from south of our border.

U.S. wages are declining due to offshoring and outsourcing of high-paying technology careers.

After all stimulative efforts, no one will be able to reverse the trend to undercut wages of U.S. workers.

Furthermore, the efforts of many to end the existence of U.S. auto makers reflects another trend to eliminate entire industries in the U.S. We have lost textiles, consumer electronics: TVs (Japan, Korea, Taiwan), stereos, personal computers (China), almost all forms of manufacturing, high technology careers, nearly every industry in which the performance of the work can be moved offshore.

mtombonyc, just curious about Edge pricing. when did prices go down? we were there a couple months ago, but haven't noticed any price changes on streeteasy or their website since then. thanks.

Williamsburg has an official shirt now

http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/7/2008/12/110x82_i-heart-toxic-waste-shirt.jpg

petrfitz' posts are the equivalent of toxic waste to these boards, unfortunately. They are a bit (unintentionally) funnier though.

Spalding, on www.craigslist.org they have apts going for less than $2,500 - but more than $2,300 Corcorcan is the renters, as I said prices have gone down a little. Still expensive considering the economy. The Edge "sales" LOL RENT office contacted me repeatedly via email they have to bust they will bust they are busted and did not accept the memo. My moto is - Buy in WillyB now or be priced out forever, Now is the time to buy in WillyB and catch that falling knife in WillyB. LMBBAO.

what is the status on The Edge? any word?

the edge is still a glass piece of shit and it is still on top of a toxic waste dump. The gang activity in the surrounding neighborhood has picked up a bit.

petrfitz is wrong as usual. The Edge has no glass (yet) and sits right by a pretty great waterfront park. By "gang activity," he means "fun neighborhood vibe." It's hilarious that someone who pumps up Pitt Street would say this about northside Williamsburg (he lives on another planet apparently). exit2, I don't think they've lowered prices at the Edge - I wouldn't expect them too anytime soon, as these developers will employ every other trick in the book (and some yet to be written) to get their price. At some point they may have to play with pricing, but I think it's still way too early for that.

hmm where were all the Chemical manufacturing plants that contaminated the ground water located in Williamsburg? Oh yeah - on the waterfront!

yeah i mean "fun neighborhood vibe" if you like machette battles for your wallet.

petrfitz, completely wrong on all counts. I've never seen a knife in the street in Williamsburg, let alone a "machette" [sic]. What, did you see someone with a butter knife in a restaurant and start crying?

so all those newspaper articles about the machete wielding gangs are lying?

November: http://www.gowanuslounge.com/2008/11/02/from-south-williamsburg-call-for-a-machete-ban/

August: http://gothamist.com/2008/04/18/machetes_and_kn.php

July: http://gothamist.com/2008/07/12/stabbings.php

you see BJW has a vested interest in propping up W Burg real estate. He bought one of those over priced condos in the middle of the worst place to buy in NYC.

Crown Heights has better upside then toxic waste infested W Burg.

Here's the problem - you're talking about intergang issues in South Williamsburg, which is NOT the area I'm talking about, and frankly, not the area most people here are talking about when they say Williamsburg. Sorry. The other issue is, I bought there because I believe in it and not the other way around, which is the way you would have it. It's just really bad reasoning on your part. Which is doubly hilarious because you love the truly decrepit parts of the LES, which have next to nothing going for them. It makes no sense.

BJW - you are correct. I am sure that people looking to buy a $1 million condo in Williamsburg know that the machete wielding gangs are not a threat because they realize the difference between "intergang fighting" and plain old machete crimes.

You bought in williamsburg "because you believe in" it. Well my son believes in Santa Claus it doesnt make him real or williamsburg a safe or good investment.

You keep bagging on my LES investments. I own on blocks where there are 2 other owners. Paul Stallings and Bill Gottlieb. Are you saying that they are not as smart RE investors as you? Please explain wny you think these areas "have nothing going for them" but Gottlieb and Stallings are in heavy?

petrfitz, again, I've never even seen a knife in the neighborhood, so this whole gang myth you're in love with isn't exactly what you it is. You might know that if you spent any significant time there.

"You bought in williamsburg "because you believe in" it. Well my son believes in Santa Claus it doesnt make him real or williamsburg a safe or good investment."

Well, I'm not going to say anything about your son, but think a little bit about how shallow that argument sounds. I probably have a little more experience.

I don't really "bag" on your LES investments. I don't even really know where they are exactly (you cited 105 Rivington once, as if it were funny). Paul Stallings owns many properties - I bet he'd be the first to tell you some were better investments than others. And Bill Gottlieb is dead, my friend. His family or whoever is now running that "business" should be ashamed of the way they've maintained their buildings and dealt with tenants. I maintain that if you bought on Pitt St and expect your value to "double overnight" as you've said many times, you're way off base. If you own on some of the more profitable blocks (west of Clinton and above Delancey), most of that value should hold out ok. There's enough around there that it's past a "tipping point" even this recession won't take down.

so you do think that a Williamsburg condo buyer is smarter in RE than Stallings and Gottlieb!

Too funny!

Also you do "see" a knife on the street, you dont realize it is there until it is stuck in your gullet. good luck.

Really great retorts - classy stuff petrfitz! You have no answers EVER when good arguments are brought forth. It's uncanny!

BJW - how many $100 million real estate developers are buying condos in your building?

> you see BJW has a vested interest in propping up W Burg real estate.

As opposed to petrfitz who has the same for the LES?

At least bjw knows what a data point is.... and realizes the market is already in serious decline. At least he's prepared for the carnage.

nyc10022 and you are prepared for the carnage because you got laid off from your junior trading desk and you are paying $4K month in rent for your landlord to pay his mortgage?

Sounds like a sweet position you got yourself in

petrfitz, what do real estate developers purchasing in one's building have to do with ANYTHING? You're reaching for straws that don't even make sense. And you talk about "rape and pillage" - "$100 million real estate developers" might actually fit under such a ridiculous tag. I don't see the point at all. As much as I disagree with nyc10022's methods and purpose sometimes, he is almost certainly more informed and level-headed than you are. I implore you to stop polluting this board. Curbed needs you.

"nyc10022 and you are prepared for the carnage because you got laid off from your junior trading desk and you are paying $4K month in rent for your landlord to pay his mortgage?"

Oh, c'mon, can you be more creative than this, petrfitz? Geez, you sound like a broken record! You should at least be as creative in your arguments as you are creative and imaginative with your claims.

"petrfitz, what do real estate developers purchasing in one's building have to do with ANYTHING?"

It has to do with his social climbing aspirations, if you haven't figured out. petrfitz likes to condescend everybody else on this board, like we're all beneath him and he tries so hard to associate himself with these so-called "rich" people that he does not really know personally and he wants to "include" himself as part of their circle.

Seriously, there is another bubble that needs to pop -- petrfitz's massive ego trip! LOL! It needs to deflate about 100%.

condo sales update:

dec '08: 29
jan '09: 23
feb '09: 18
mar '09: 26
apr '09: 23

So sales volume in Williamsburg looks fairly stable, 20-30 units per month. So assuming 4,000 units (streeteasy lists 586, talk about shadow inventory!), that's 13 years of condo inventory. At least things can really only go up from here.

Average size, 1120 sq ft, avg price/sq.ft was $570, although that includes places like 290 Wallabout St #2B, which is really in Bedstuy.

Other Wburg thoughts:

Northside Piers: Tower #1 has 57 units still listed as available; despite "drastic" price reductions only 8 recorded sales so far in 2009. PH#12 sold for $969,550 after asking was reduced to $1,114,990 from $1,720,990. Pretty good deal, I just hope (for Sky High View LLC's sake) they don't build the 3rd tower. Tower #2 still has no sales.

The Edge: No recorded sales?

Karl Fischer Row: 20 Bayard, 1 sale; Aurora, 6 sales; Ikon, 2 sales

wow, this is all over the place. north williamsburg where the edge is is very safe. check the 94th precinct stats.

to the original poster--obviously, williamsburg is full of musicians and live music which i'm sure you know. you'd be in good company. there are a few in my condo building, and a producer bought a duplex like you've described and did make an incredible studio in the lower level.

i've been here for a couple of years and love it - restaurants, commute, my neighbors, my property, etc.. good luck and ignore the crazies on SE.

"that's 13 years of condo inventory."

If your numbers are right, it's time for me to stock up on those KY futures.

djradon,

Thnx for you most recent post.

djradon -- i can't speak for other buildings in williamsburg, but the one i live in still lists a handful of apartments as available on streeteasy, even though they are occupied. even my own purchase wasn't reflected on this site for at least two months. i imagine that streeteasy's numbers don't tell the whole story.

"So assuming 4,000 units"

I think that's a pretty dubious estimate. I ran a pretty detailed tally a couple weeks ago on a thread here and got to ~1,500, which is still quite a lot, but I think there's a lot of exaggerating going on about this. The Edge and NSP 2 are clearly playing wait and see and hoping that by the time they finish construction, things will have picked up. I wouldn't hold my breath, but this explains the slow activity there (though the Edge isn't reporting sales at all yet either).

"The Edge and NSP 2 are clearly playing wait and see and hoping that by the time they finish construction, things will have picked up."

I don't believe The Edge & NSP 2 are playing cat & mouse, I do believe, potential buyers are playing wait & see and don't want to mortgage an asset that will decline in value and reside in a development that may go bankrupt. The banks are not providing would be buyers with a mortgages during these uncertain economic times.

cheeseburger,

I like your choice of wording "occupied".

mutombo, obviously I agree that buyers are waiting, but that has a lot to do with Douglaston and Toll keeping their pricing right where it was on these buildings. They aren't lowering them now because construction isn't nearly done yet. I know you're keen on counting what's "occupied" but chessburger's point was that certain apts are still listed even though they're already occupied.

bjw2103,

You are still delusional LOL.

"occupied" you are so far gone its beyond delusion.

Look, the folks at the Edge are playing it very close to the vest. I don't know anyone who has a sense of the real picture of what's going on there. And the Toll Bros buildings? Rent, rent to own, buy, it's all the same to us? Sends a confusing message.

But I still see demand - just not at the prime new development offering prices. And there's plenty of movement in the resales - the Gretsch Building is still moving units. And other, better priced buildings (like 72 Berry) have no trouble finding buyers. The key here is price per square foot - period. I don't know if the developers of the newer buildings can bring the prices down to meet the demand. Many developers paid too much for the buildings/land in the first place, and commenced construction at a time of astronomical material costs. So yeah, it sucks to be them. But if they could find a way to bring their prices down - and I'm not saying they can - I believe the demand would be there to meet them. Despite all the hipster/L Train bashing that goes on, it's still an incredibly livable community, and plenty of people would rather live there than in Manhattan. Enough people to absorb all that inventory - at $550-$650/sf.

Tina
(Brooklyn broker)

what is wrong with these developers!? IMHO, if rents are going down, and people already suggest a house should cost 15x - 20x rents, then obviously home prices have to follow suit. my neighbor pays $2700 a month in rent for a new construction 2 x 2 in williamsburg--translation, $648,000 purchase price--that's on the high end of tina's calc. drop it even more and you'll start clearing that inventory.

mutombo, where's your actual point, if you have one?

tina24hour is right - demand hasn't just up and vanished, but people are expecting lower prices. I don't know how else to explain the success of 72 Berry, as well as NV and Rialto finally selling enough units (thanks to price reductions). I think it's a bit silly to ask "what is wrong with these developers" - they'll do what best suits their interests, and those that fail to gauge their target market properly will eventually come out with the short end of the stick.

bj--silly to ask 'what is wrong with these developers'? why is that? look at warehouse 11--you don't price accordingly and you go bk. SOMETHING has to be wrong with them--delusion, insanity, stupidity. you try and tow the line of 2006 pricing (versus Toll's huge price cuts at NSP1) and your units won't sell.

What's happening at 80 Met?

cj2008, I'm not saying that they shouldn't price accordingly, just that calling them delusional, insane, stupid, etc. is kind of missing the big picture here. I understand the frustration at not seeing lower prices in this market, but to just expect them to do so willy-nilly isn't realistic. As I said before, Douglaston and Toll (for the second tower) have no compelling reason to play with prices from now until construction is complete. I don't know if the strategy will pay off in the long-run (I don't think anyone does), but I understand their reasons for doing so. Warehouse 11 did way too little way too late, and wasn't a particularly enticing project to begin with. That it sits on a questionable plot of land while there are plenty of other options nearby did not help either.

bjw2103,

nyc10022 & I have exposed you for being the poster boy you are with an agenda.

bjw2103,

From Tina, "the Gretsch Building is still moving units."
According to bjw2103, the building was fully occupied LOL. Damn The Gretsch is located on the SS of Burg so don't pertain to bjw2103.

"Despite all the hipster/L Train bashing that goes on, it's still an incredibly livable community, and plenty of people would rather live there than in Manhattan."
Tina, did bjw2103 make you say this?

Property value in w'burg is falling case closed.

"the building was fully occupied LOL"

mutombo, you should read her post more carefully - those are resales, silly.

mutombnyc - what? really? But you agree with me, I know you do. You love WIlliamsburg.

"Property value in w'burg is falling case closed." Agreed. Property value EVERYWHERE is falling. But I though we were talking about a balance between pent up demand and inventory. It's not like Fourth Ave in the Slope, which I believe people will abandon as prime Slope properties become more affordable. As Williamsburg becomes more affordable, the demand will be there. That's what I'm saying. Maybe not enough to absorb 4000 units, but definitely enough to absorb 1500. IF the developers can bring down their prices - which is a big if.

Tina
(Brooklyn broker)

^^thought, not though.

bjw2103,

I like that you were paying attn but property value in w'burg is falling yours included LOL.

Tina,

I disagree with you on the abandonment* of PS as it becomes more affordable, PS is not a fringe neighborhood that underwent G and I don't see that neighborhood being abandoned as for w'burg its nature why prices are being lowered not developers doing it out of kindness.

mutombo, I think tina's right about 4th Ave - it's fringe Park Slope, not really prime.

BJW is right for once. Well, not exactly.

Its not prime park slope, for sure. But, I wouldn't even call it park slope at all.... a friend moved between 4th-5th years ago, and they even named it something else for a while. I've never seen any reliable boundary of PS inclued 4th ave. Hell, 5th ave is pushing it.

"But, I wouldn't even call it park slope at all.... a friend moved between 4th-5th years ago, and they even named it something else for a while. I've never seen any reliable boundary of PS inclued 4th ave. Hell, 5th ave is pushing it."

4th Ave is widely considered the boundary between Park Slope and Gowanus. You're right that it wasn't that way years ago, but times (and borders) change. And saying that 5th Ave is "pushing it" shows that you don't really know the neighborhood (not the first time this has happened, so not surprised). It's the major commercial corridor in Park Slope (with 7th not far behind). It's like saying Bleecker is fringe West Village.

Hey, just to clarify - I didn't mean people would abandon Park Slope for Williamsburg. I meant people will abandon 4th Ave in Park Slope in favor of "prime" Park Slope. My point was that most of the vacancies in Williamsburg are in the places where demand is high. Sure, there are the smaller developments in East Williamsburg, etc, but due to the way the waterfront rezoning worked, the large (and yes, largely vacant) buildings are precisely where people want to live.

People just don't want to lay out the kind of jake they're asking. And maybe it's beyond the developers' control to bring those asking prices into alignment with the market, and maybe there will have to be bankruptcies before it can happen, but when prices get to $550/sf expect to see these units move swiftly into contract.

Tina
(Brooklyn broker)

"4th Ave is widely considered the boundary between Park Slope and Gowanus. You're right that it wasn't that way years ago, but times (and borders) change. And saying that 5th Ave is "pushing it" shows that you don't really know the neighborhood (not the first time this has happened, so not surprised). It's the major commercial corridor in Park Slope (with 7th not far behind). It's like saying Bleecker is fringe West Village."

Dude, seriously, you need to take your own advice and not try to speak about things you know nothing of. All that talk about "you have to ask the people that live there" and meanwhile you get your info off curbed and try to correct people.

WOW

I know you're getting your info from the blogs you read in Boston, but, sorry, you are off your rocker.
But, nothing new about that.

"Borders change". Yes, you got your info for corcoran. Now shut up and let the people who actually know the neighborhood speak.

(bjw will now go to wikipedia and try to learn about the neighborhood)

"I know you're getting your info from the blogs you read in Boston, but, sorry, you are off your rocker.
But, nothing new about that.

"Borders change". Yes, you got your info for corcoran. Now shut up and let the people who actually know the neighborhood speak."

Wowie, I sure pushed a button. So instead of posting any kind of intelligent response or argument, you just toss some ad hominem junk - exactly the tactic you deride in others. It's funny, because I was at a restaurant on 4th Ave last night, and even the locals call in Park Slope. So instead of being extra touchy and insulting, maybe you should brush up on your facts and cool off a bit.

> and even the locals call in Park Slope

Yes, the other guy they sold the condo to called it park slope. Hillarious!

And 5th avenue as the main corridor! Hillarious!

Some idiot read the same blog you did and got suckered by corcoran, and he's your expert.

Sorry, but the ACTUAL locals don't.

Try again, though.... you are a funny tourist.

Its like the folks who got suckered into buying a BPC building with "tribeca" in the name..... yes, I'm sure they will say they live in tribeca, too.

Hillarious.

Seriously, dude, you have to stop getting your information from the tourist guides.

ROTFL

As neighborhoods go, Park Slope is one of the bigger ones. Like Williamsburg and Bushwick it covers a lot of ground, with distinct shifts in character as you move through it. There are sub-neighborhoods within these sprawling districts, and it's worth identifying them.

So you're both right. 4th Ave IS Park Slope. And if you live on 4th Ave, 5th Ave is likely your "main drag." But it's also on the Gowanus border. As "Gowanus" is a canal and not a traditional neighborhood designation, its borders are questionable. For example: Bar Tano, on Third Ave & 9th Street, is alternately referred to as being in Park Slope, Gowanus, and "the no-foodie’s-land between Park Slope and Carroll Gardens" (NYMag).

Is it a nice place to live? You tell me. I sure do like Bar Tano. But if I was looking at 4th Ave because I couldn't afford Prospect Park West, and then suddenly I could, I'd probably take PPW. And to bring it back to the original post, I'm saying Kent Ave is the Prospect Park West of Williamsburg - not the 4th Ave.

Can we agree to this, at least?

Tina
(Brooklyn broker)

I think if we rephrase this a little bit, it will be easier to get our hands around it:

Over the past decade, we have put on blinders and accepted brokers calling properties as being in neighborhoods which they actually weren't. And it's happened for so long, we've sort of accepted the neighborhoods as having new boundaries which are somewhat false. As the market contracts, people who used to play the three monkeys (see no evil, hear not evil, etc.) are removing the blinders and pulling the clothes pins off of their noses and are going back to recognizing what is really in a neighborhood and what is "vic" (vicinity).

4th Avenue is not Park Slope. 30th Street is not Chelsea. Greenwich Street is not Soho. Broadway is not Tribeca. Condop's are not Coop's with condo rules. 1 BR's with $1,900 maintenance's are not "average".

> And if you live on 4th Ave, 5th Ave is likely your "main drag."

And if you live on E 87th, your main drag is 86th. But that doesn't make 86th the main drag for midtown...

5th avenue has built up for sure. I remember when the first "hip" place came, that asian fusian thing. Now its got 'em all over the place. Quite a row going (although Smith Street takes it for cuisine) But that making it a main drag for a neighborhood its barely in? Laughable.

Unless you got your map from the broker, of course.

"As neighborhoods go, Park Slope is one of the bigger ones. Like Williamsburg and Bushwick it covers a lot of ground, with distinct shifts in character as you move through it. "

Yes, if you are a broker, I can understand how the borders you claim will expand.... but that doesn't make it so.

The last place to get neighborhood boundaries is a broker.

"I think if we rephrase this a little bit, it will be easier to get our hands around it:

Over the past decade, we have put on blinders and accepted brokers calling properties as being in neighborhoods which they actually weren't. And it's happened for so long, we've sort of accepted the neighborhoods as having new boundaries which are somewhat false. As the market contracts, people who used to play the three monkeys (see no evil, hear not evil, etc.) are removing the blinders and pulling the clothes pins off of their noses and are going back to recognizing what is really in a neighborhood and what is "vic" (vicinity).

4th Avenue is not Park Slope. 30th Street is not Chelsea. Greenwich Street is not Soho. Broadway is not Tribeca. Condop's are not Coop's with condo rules. 1 BR's with $1,900 maintenance's are not "average"."

30, you hit it right on the head. Just because some sucker thinks he bought in a neighborhood he didn't doesn't mean its true. In good markets, you get away with this. In bad markets, the blinders come off very quickly.

"Sorry, but the ACTUAL locals don't."

So the people that live there and run restaurants (as well as tina, who's saying exactly the same thing - it's the border between Park Slope and Gowanus) there aren't actual locals? See how you're not making ANY sense here? It's impressive how you writhe, scream, gesticulate ad nauseum to distract, but you're essentially claiming that Park Slope runs from PPW to 6th Ave (5th Ave is "pushing it" as you said), which is as wrong as you can get. Same for 5th Ave - seriously, have you walked down it in the past 30 years? As tina says, it's a main drag - there are countless restaurants, boutiques, etc. Give the attitude a rest, especially when you're this far off.

tina24hour, I agree with the PPW - Kent Ave analogy, though I think it'll take some time before Kent is clearly seen as such. But everything's in place for that to happen. Also agree with you on the Gowanus issue, but I think that the neighborhood is taking shape as distinctly different from anything around it, especially since place like the Bell House and Bar Tano opened there - they're drawing a nice little nucleus of people to an area that was pretty dead.

nyc10022, if you doubt that this has been true for a while - http://nymag.com/realestate/articles/neighborhoods/parkslope.htm
That was written in 2003. You might want to pay attention to the boundaries as well as where the majority of the restaurants, nightlife, and shopping were, even 6 years ago. But you don't have to believe it if you don't want to, it's ok.

I'm glad you're learning about park slope in New York Magazine, like all the other tourists.

And, yes, Tina the broker... she's my trusted source... especially when now more than one person has weighed in on the trustworthiness of brokers on defining neighborhoods.

> As tina says, it's a main drag

For a different area! Her ACTUAL quote says "And if you live on 4th Ave, 5th Ave is likely your "main drag."

OH MY LORD, now you're even lying about what she said!

I would expect nothing less than more lying from you.

Nice try, though.

Maybe you can read some more in the tourist magazines and tell us what you learned.

More histrionics? How unpredictable. New York Magazine is a tourist magazine? Yikes, now there is a lie! If you're so convinced you're right, please show me anything even remotely reliable that says Park Slope ends where you say it does. Otherwise, you're still just shouting and lying, as usual.

"> As tina says, it's a main drag
For a different area! Her ACTUAL quote says "And if you live on 4th Ave, 5th Ave is likely your "main drag."
OH MY LORD, now you're even lying about what she said!"

So utterly ridiculous, I shouldn't even bother, but even if we accept your incorrect theory that 5th Ave is "pushing it" for Park Slope (which you casually ignored of course), my saying that she said it was a main drag is not a lie, it's exactly what she said. You're nutty brother. And instead of blindly attacking brokers, you should attempt to share anything you have to your name that entitles you to a superior level of knowledge, because I have yet to see a thing. tina's proven to be a pretty honest broker, at least on the basis of her posts on this site.

Please, don't take it from me! Here's a helpful link:
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/28/realestate/rezoning-and-redefining-park-slope.html?sec=&spon=&pagewanted=all

It covers many of the definitions of Park Slope - by developers, brokers, residents, as well as the historical subdivisions within the nabe. Plus it's fun to look back at 2003 and see the developers refer to 4th ave as "Brooklyn's Park Avenue". How's that coming, Mr. Boymelgreen?

Tina
(Brooklyn broker)

So utterly ridiculous, I shouldn't even bother, but even if we accept your incorrect theory that 5th Ave is "pushing it" for Park Slope (which you casually ignored of course), my saying that she said it was a main drag is not a lie, it's exactly what she said.

Dude, you can jump up and down all you want, but you're still lying!

She said it was a main drag if you live on 4th... you said it was the main drag of park slope.

Dude, you got caught in another blatant lie.

Jump up and down all you want, tell me *I'm* nutty, but you..

LIED.

(again)

Tina, I do think you are a pretty honest person and often have good insight, but I do find it funny that you are using as your example of an article which talks about developers trying to *change* the boundary. Yes, I get that brokers and developers and such have been attempting to spread it as wide as possible... but that doesn't make it true.

And I think you missed the best quote of them all!!!!

"Native Brooklynites would be surprised to hear any of the blocks below Fifth Avenue defined as Park Slope at all."

Sorry, bjw, but you lose (again). And that you have to lie to try and weasel your way out... pathetic.

nyc10022,

You tore into bjw2103 its been a minute LOL.

"She said it was a main drag if you live on 4th... you said it was the main drag of park slope."

It's not a lie, especially since all I wrote was that she said it was a main drag. You're somehow turning that into a lie? Truly bizarre. 5th Ave is a main drag in Park Slope, hands down. That you're even arguing this shows how little you know. You're blatantly unaware of what's even on the street!

""Native Brooklynites would be surprised to hear any of the blocks below Fifth Avenue defined as Park Slope at all."
Sorry, bjw, but you lose (again). And that you have to lie to try and weasel your way out... pathetic."

nyc10022, since you so readily accuse others of lying, I'll call you (again) on this one: I said this literally hours ago: "4th Ave is widely considered the boundary between Park Slope and Gowanus. You're right that it wasn't that way years ago, but times (and borders) change." This article cited was written, you guessed it, years ago. On top of that, the article goes on to state that "The April rezoning actually goes as far as Third Avenue on some blocks, and only to 15th Street on the south." (I'd never call 3rd Ave Park Slope, but this shows how far off you really are). In your quest to be an utter jackass, this proves to be your trump card. Congrats. I look forward to witnessing you demonstrate new and interesting ways to be a curmudgeonly internet persona.

bjw2103,

Keep it classy.

What is the clinical name for neighborhoods when they grow?

e.g. globalization.

Con't

neighorhoods expand, go beyond originals boundaries

sprawl?

"neighorhoods expand, go beyond originals boundaries"

Yeah. When enough new stuff gets built to merit the expansion of the outmost boundary; but that, in general, is not what is going on. What is going on is that you can get more money by calling your area as part of the neighboring 'hood, so lots of people start calling things other than they are for monetary reasons. Well, property values/prices aren't what define neighborhood boundaries, unless you're talking about buyers, sellers and brokers (notice how I blamed everyone, not just brokers?). But just because it's in the pecuniary interests of a larger and larger groups of people to redefine these boundaries, it doesn't make it so. What's all the new construction down on 4th Avenue which turned it into Park Slope? It's not that: it's that enough people paid "Park Slope money" down there that they "have" to say they live in Park Slope, the Seller had to say it was park Slope to get those $ and so did the broker. So now you've got a critical mass of people who live in an area calling it Park Slope that "democratically" it's gotten accepted. but there's a big difference between that happening and there being a real change in neighborhood boundaries.

It's like a personal pet peeve of mine (boy am I gonna show how petty I can get here): the misuse by attorneys of the phrase "out of pocket". Every time I hear one use it I want to smack the living crap out of them.

"Yeah. When enough new stuff gets built to merit the expansion of the outmost boundary"
"What's all the new construction down on 4th Avenue"

30yrs, I think these statements are pretty confusing, no? I don't think there's any denying that 4th Ave isn't what it once was, and it's still being developed obviously. People who have bought here are indeed buying into Park Slope and everything that comes with it, so I think you're going to have a hard time convincing all but the most bitter nostalgics that the neighborhood hasn't grown. I can see how some people living in prime Park Slope might be a little vexed at the inclusion of 4th Ave in the neighborhood, but I don't think that reflects reality here. Are you saying that, for example, Garfield Pl, between 4th and 5th is not Park Slope? I think the vast majority of locals would disagree with you there.

Why so much fighting and name calling? Why so much anger?

"It's not a lie, especially since all I wrote was that she said it was a main drag"

Wouldn't be bjw without another LIE...

"It's the major commercial corridor in Park Slope"

Whoops.

Tourist, can you make it one thread without a lie?

"Yeah. When enough new stuff gets built to merit the expansion of the outmost boundary; but that, in general, is not what is going on. What is going on is that you can get more money by calling your area as part of the neighboring 'hood, so lots of people start calling things other than they are for monetary reasons. Well, property values/prices aren't what define neighborhood boundaries, unless you're talking about buyers, sellers and brokers (notice how I blamed everyone, not just brokers?). But just because it's in the pecuniary interests of a larger and larger groups of people to redefine these boundaries, it doesn't make it so. What's all the new construction down on 4th Avenue which turned it into Park Slope? It's not that: it's that enough people paid "Park Slope money" down there that they "have" to say they live in Park Slope, the Seller had to say it was park Slope to get those $ and so did the broker. So now you've got a critical mass of people who live in an area calling it Park Slope that "democratically" it's gotten accepted. but there's a big difference between that happening and there being a real change in neighborhood boundaries."

Absolutely, you hit the nail on the head 30 years.

And since BJW doesn't know the neighborhood, and seems to get all his info off blogs and brokers, he's extremely prone to these mistakes. That a bunch of suckers ate the broker line that they're in park slope is bad enough, bjw's curbed as a RE source just compounds it.

This isn't so much of a problem in good years (which is all we had for quite some time).

In the bad years, you'll see the stuff contract. I can think of developments in the 80s where that happened, and 5 years after the fact, it was used as a model of "overextending". In boom years, broker can get away with it, in pullbacks, you'll see very quickly where the real lines are.

nyc10022, I know the neighborhood pretty well thanks, as well as people who live there. Not one agrees with you. I don't know where you get your info at all, unfortunately. I post links because it's unfortunately the only thing I can show you anonymously over the internet, but you won't even believe the Village Voice, so it's a bit hopeless convincing you, isn't it? I've never once used Curbed as a source, so dispense with the strawman please.

> I know the neighborhood pretty well thanks, as well as people who live there

ROTFL. Quite the hypocrite you are!

And, sorry, you don't.... you can scream and yell that you do, but, sorry, nope.

bjw,
I don't think that having ONE BLOCK on GARFIELD PLACE (i.e. BELOW the numbers) is a sufficient indicator that IN GENERAL 4th Avenue is PS. But that wasn't even my point, which was much more general than that. And when you say "people that live there" consider it PS, I ask "live where?". From my experience, you are correct if you are talking about people who live on the wrong side of Fifth Avenue still thinking they live in Park Slope; but if you ask people who live on PPW, you get the opposite. Asking people who bought into a lie if the lie is true and getting the answer "yes, the lie is true" is a bit of a .... well......

But let me point out an inconvenient truth about RE in NY in general: "main drags" define borders of neighborhoods:

Canal St, Houston Street, 14th Street, Atlantic Avenue, Court Street, etc.

So if anything, Fifth avenue being a "main drag" would MUCH more likely signify that it is the END of PS and anything past that is something else, not the other way around.

I also agree with 10022 about the boundaries getting pushed in boom times because (as I said elsewhere) in boom times buyers put on blinders and nose clips and buy into non-facts of all sorts, and in bust times they see that the Emperor has no clothes.

Well said, 30. Said it better than I could. of course surveying the folks who made the mistake is going to get you a mistake answer.

The bust is going to clarify things immensely.

"I don't think that having ONE BLOCK on GARFIELD PLACE (i.e. BELOW the numbers) is a sufficient indicator that IN GENERAL 4th Avenue is PS"

30yrs, that was an example - there are many other blocks between 4th and 5th Aves obviously. I assumed you'd understand that.

"I ask "live where?""

The people in question live on Sterling between 6th and 7th Aves and Montgomery Pl - arguably some of the better blocks in prime Slope. I think that speaks for itself.

"But let me point out an inconvenient truth about RE in NY in general: "main drags" define borders of neighborhoods:"

This is definitely not a rule. Is Bedford Ave a border in Williamsburg? Wall St in the financial? Bleecker St in the village? I hardly think that proves me incorrect.

"I also agree with 10022 about the boundaries getting pushed in boom times"

Of course this is true, but that doesn't mean that sometimes those borders don't stick around. Paris used to be just the Ile de la Cite, and there's been countless ups and downs since then.

"The bust is going to clarify things immensely."

Let's try this again in a few years and see.

> "But let me point out an inconvenient truth about RE in NY in general: "main drags" define borders
> of neighborhoods:"
> This is definitely not a rule. Is Bedford Ave a border in Williamsburg? Wall St in the financial?
> Bleecker St in the village? I hardly think that proves me incorrect.

Only because you picked, in your words, "Self-serving and pretty horrible analog[ies]"... we're talking about streets at best at the edges of neighborhoods, and you are picking centers as examples.

86th street is the border of carnegie hill. 60th street for UES. Flatbush Ave. Closer to home, smith street is the border of a bunch of neighborhoods.... hell, its the other side of the canal, so thats a pretty damn telling analogy, if you want to use some, well, valid ones.

> "The bust is going to clarify things immensely."

> Let's try this again in a few years and see.

Hey, if you need to wait to see what a bust looks like in NYC, fine... but don't include me in that. I've already been there.

But, yes, you should learn.

"and you are picking centers as examples."

Way to talk around the issue. The claim was made that "main drags" are neighborhood boundaries in this city. I cited three off the top of my head that are main drags but NOT boundaries. It's a bunk theory. More importantly, if you subscribe to this, you're conceding that 5th Ave is a main drag then? So, in your words, you "LIED."

"Hey, if you need to wait to see what a bust looks like in NYC, fine"

I meant in regards to what it will do to 4th Ave. You don't know it very well obviously, because it probably can't get much worse than what it was.

> The claim was made that "main drags" are neighborhood boundaries in this city.

No, the claim was that 5th avenue was the boundary... and 30 did NOT say it referred to all

"So if anything, Fifth avenue being a "main drag" would MUCH more likely signify that it is the END of PS and anything past that is something else, not the other way around."

There are the words "LIKELY" right in there. Nice try, though! Next!

"More importantly, if you subscribe to this, you're conceding that 5th Ave is a main drag then? So, in your words, you "LIED.""

Dude, seriously, this is getting pathetic. You lied so much you don't even know what you lied about anymore... reread the post.

You changed your lie... again.