Is Denial Really this Bad

There is no denial. The same data found that prices in the northeast were down only by 0.1%, versus 13% nationally.

No, that was just *your* denial. ;-)
I read that thread where you tried to make that claim, too.

But, I guess denial is still omnipresent...

The actual Manhattan data says 20% down median.
The case Shiller for the metro area is double digits down (15% I believe now, but don't quote me).

And you're trying to cling to a "northeast" number? Because Buffalo and Maine are included, you are entitled to bury your head in the sand?

Actually, this is hilariously ironic. The big response to my "is there denial" post is a "no, there isn't" coming from the guy who STARTED the denial post of the year....

"Prices are NOT Down 20% "
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/7094-prices-are-not-down-20

So, I guess you (unintentionally) answered my question prety clearly... the first guy to claim there is no denial is the one denying the data...

Accoridng to the NY Case Shiller Index, the NY metro area is down 7.3% year over year, not 15%.

The Case SHiller Index is more accurate because it tracks REPEAT sales. The Miller Samuel data tracks the median price, which can be easily skewed downward when more low end apartments sell than high end ones. And now that all of the closings at 15 CPW and the Plaza are done, it is no surprise that the median is down 20%.

And the NY Case Shiller Index does not include Buffalo or Maine. It includes the following:

Fairfield CT, New Haven CT, Bergen NJ, Essex NJ, Hudson NJ, Hunterdon NJ, Mercer NJ, Middlesex NJ, Monmouth NJ, Morris NJ, Ocean NJ, Passaic NJ, Somerset NJ, Sussex NJ, Union NJ, Warren NJ, Bronx NY, Dutchess NY, Kings NY, Nassau NY, New York NY, Orange NY, Putnam NY, Queens NY, Richmond NY, Rockland NY, Suffolk NY, Westchester NY, Pike PA

I am not in denial by saying that prices in prime Manhattan are not down 20%. Again, look at the NY Case Shiller Index.

> Accoridng to the NY Case Shiller Index, the NY metro area is down 7.3% year over year, not 15%.

Peak to trough, not YoY... its down double digits already. It was 10% months ago.

> And the NY Case Shiller Index does not include Buffalo or Maine

Never said it did. Your irrelevant "northeast" does... which, btw, isn't even in the article you linked to.

BTW, all red herrings... the market data is showing manhattan down 20% now. How exactly are you using this to deny the Manhattan market decline again?

Compared to the peak, the NY Case Shiller Index is down 11%.

"BTW, all red herrings... the market data is showing manhattan down 20% now. How exactly are you using this to deny the Manhattan market decline again?"

Because the data that shows a 20% drop tracks the MEDIAN price, which can be manipulated. THe Case SHiller Index tracks REPEAT sales which CANNOT be manipulated. Got it?

I know you don't like actual data, but just to be complete, here is the case shiller numer you're denying...

NY index peaked at 215.83 in June 2006. September number is 191.32.... 11.3% down... and that was months ago.

data:
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.html

Wanna try that 7% again?

We're talking TWO YEARS of decline...

> THe Case SHiller Index tracks REPEAT sales which CANNOT be manipulated.

And, as many a bull has noted, includes 0 Manhattan data.

> Is Denial Really this Bad

btw, thanks for answering the question so clearly.

Case closed.

Sepetember is the last month for when the Case SHiller Index is available since the index is always one month behind. I am not denying anything. The October data does not come out until next Tuesday so I am relying on the most up to date numbers.

ok, your numbers are the most up to date lie you can come up with.

Fine to use september... but the drop is 11.3%, not the 7% lie you came up with.

seriously, alpine, what is your motivation here?

Why do you want to cover up the stats? Ignoring the manhattan stats, "accidentally" dropping a year of declines from case shiller. Why are you so interested in folks not having the correct data?

I said that prices are down 7% YEAR OVER YEAR, not from the peak. Are you blind? My numbers are 100% correct.

No, they're about as dishonest as it gets...

Why exactly are you trying to hide the truth here?

Sorry, I need to make a correction.

You aren't the guy that started the denial thread. You started TWO denial threads.
ROTFL.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/7094-prices-are-not-down-20
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/7090-affordability-is-not-here

Thanks for absolutely proving the point.

BTW, if you love case shiller so much, why again did you try and pull out a "northeast only down .1%" stat from a data source that has all the problems you complain about.

You can't honestly believe that data has any meaning (or you'd be contradicting yourself).

So, unless you have some agena, why did you start an entire thread on it?

Sorry, I answered my own question...... (see title of this thread).

Alpine now be a good boy and Take This Dunce Hat And Go Sit In The Corner.............

I have a feeling the deniers are going to get even louder over the next few weeks.... as the data that proves them wrong comes in, they'll lash out even more.

I think you have your answer.

yes, I do.

I knew there was some out there, I didn't realize there would be deniers fighting to the death (or bankruptcy... or, well, probably beyond that too).

Problem is most people are ignorant and don't realize this was a phony economy based on a Ponzi scheme with real estate at the top of this game. Homes were magically spitting out money as ATM's and HELOC's and appreciating in prices while incomes stayed flat and good jobs outsourced over the last 15 years. Now that the little man behind the curtain has been exposed in the Wizard of OZ...... ToTo were not in Kansas anymore...

Denial is pretty prevalent at my work too. Some of the most recent comments...

- "Just Harlem, LES, etc. are down. Won't affect prime Manhattan": Chop, chop chop, coming to a Q4 report near you.

- "We're only off a few percent down": Ditto.

- "Mortgage rates are at record lows": And underwater mortgages are at record highs!

- "Now's the best time to buy": Yea, real estate always has a V rebound...

- "Renting is throwing money away": So is a depreciating asset. If I bought YHOO a year ago would you consider that a very smart move? Yea didn't think so, that's the same level of intelligence in buying an apartment a year ago.

- "Oh it won't matter, I'm going to be here 10 years": This is the dumbest argument of all and shows a general ignorance for finances. I could have held SPY for 10 years, doesn't mean it's a good investment. There's a nice alternative to owning, it's called renting and it will save you hundreds of thousands in lost equity and tens of thousands in carrying costs from peak to through.

Agreed... even before the major declines, the whole "yeah, but I'll break even in 20 years anyway" line was so ridiculous to me given you were paying 6% for the privilege of not beating inflation....

"The same data found that prices in the northeast were down only by 0.1%, versus 13% nationally."

That's right. Prices are actually rising in Buffalo and Vermont.

On the other hand, anywhere near the coast....

"And underwater mortgages are at record highs!"
In Manhattan? DOn't be so sure prices are coming down I still see potential buyers at open houses I attend.

i agree..i really haven't seen lower prices what i do see are agents willing to listen to lower offers.

Oh, hp and julia: they're posted throughout the thread. Down 20% from peak, and that's past sales versus current list prices. How much more do you want?

hotproperty - could you please describe to all of us the physical sensations/effects associated with devoting so much energy to denying an obvious, unsurmountable truth? I have never experienced such powerful denial, so I'm curious to know if it has any physical manifestations, such as:

(i) effect on appetite / digestion
(ii) sleep interruption or deprivation
(iii) sociability
(iv) tolerance for pain or other sensory sensitivity (i.e., loud noise)

I'm being serious. Does it affect your moods? your sleep?

> DOn't be so sure prices are coming down I still see potential buyers at open houses I attend.

Mr. Denial #3, exactly how do these two things contradict one another?

Julia are serious? I'm seeing it everywhere, and Im getting calls from sellers who keep reducing price but cant get even a low ball bid. One of them is trying to sell with Elliman broker, where he is asking 10% below previous comp..he received a good offer early SEPT, but didn accept because they were priced high and thought the bid was low. Now the asking price is 2% above that offer received 3.5 months ago.

Thats just one example. Look, its so simple! deals happening now are contracts signed, and it is going to take 2-4 months until these close, especially for those buyers that may have a bit of trouble securing financing and have to look to alternative lenders. Dont assume everyone gets a loan so easily, trust me, they dont.

So, these deals will close say end of JAN to March and then we will see the prices that these deals happened at. If by end of March you dont see any price declines in comps, based on comps from up to 12 months prior, we can have a arguable discussion about this down cycle.

everyone just thinks Manhattan is the Goldman Sachs of real estate, and never will go down. Until we realize no market is immune

julia - do you think prices are going to go up or down, and why? just curious.

> Julia are serious?

Seriously lying... that's it...

Noah, farquhar, I wouldn't waste your time with her, her story has changed dramatically over time, and she "can't see" anything everyone else has seen.

She was outed as broker months ago.

Julia, I think you are a broker or a real estate market expert? I've seen your comments on other threads. You have some intersting points, that I've read. I woudl like to ask you for your advice, maybe, if you don't mind. Do you think that it is now a good time to buy an apartment? people have different opinions.

howie, are you serious? (or are you just another username for julia).

Julia is deluded or lying. If you want honest analysis, check out urbandigs.com, especially his market overview that just came out. Great stuff.

He also posts on this board...

thanks nyc 10022

look at 235 east 22nd street (great bldg) studio, nice layout, needs gut reno, high monthly charges, $395k no negotiation at all. I tried.. studios with alcoves or large layouts are still very high. I've given up on one bedrooms.

howie, i'm not a broker, just a small business owner who's becoming smaller every day. I sold my studio last year hoping to find a one bedroom but nothing. I have a small rental paying $2495. I'm hoping the people here are right and prices are coming down. I only see lower prices on high end apts which are crazy high so lowering a $2m apartment by 20% doesn't mean anything if they paid $500k they'll still make a large profit.

"$395k no negotiation at all. I tried.. studios with alcoves or large layouts are still very high."

those are asking prices? Sellers are still anchored. This is the psychology Julia that leads to the setup for the down cycle. The disconnect between your buyer and that seller. Thats the point. Dont look at asking prices and what a seller will or will not do.

Look at your buyers and what they are willing or not willing to do and you will see where this market is headed!

"Julia, I think you are a broker or a real estate market expert? I've seen your comments on other threads. You have some intersting points, that I've read."

I can't tell if this was a joke or if this was serious. Either way - very funny!

urbandigs...i think your point is that i shouldn't negotiate based on the selling price but offer what I believe it is worth. that's a good point I haven't tried.

jgr...i don't know what your point is at all.

i honestly thought you were a broker

Julia, thanks! I think you hear every opinion on this board, you know. so many people are showing that prices are going down. I think I'll read urbandigs too. Julia, you say they are the same or going up which is why I think maybe you have a special knowledge.

Julia, do you think prices are going to come down or go up? Do you think the econnomy will have any affect on prices here? Maybe there is no way prices will ever go down? Why do so many people disagree with you. maybe you are the right one.

urbandigs...i've never been a broker..

howie..very kind words thank you...

> which is why I think maybe you have a special knowledge.

"special" knowledge.

In the special olympics sense...

> Why do so many people disagree with you. maybe you are the right one.

Yes, I'm sure thats it...

"Smithers, I want that man killed"

That's a joke Howie, but not by much..

"Do you think the econnomy will have any affect on prices here?" - ABSOLUTELY NOT!- Why would the "economy" and underlying "fundamentals" (much lower income, higher unemployment, collapsing confidence, tighter lending standards, higher equity requirements, rising inventories, increasing rental vacancies, destruction of net worth) and underlying cash flow have any affect on asset prices?

In fact, ignoring all that "stuff" has probably gotten you where you are in life..Praising the likes of Julia on her uncommonly clairvoyant grasp of NYC real estate..

lol

Julia - "agents are willing to listen to lower offers?!!!" An agent must listen to all offers -- willingness is not a part of it. Agents are not the decision makers. No impact.

and a merry christmas to all

lol

OK, I get why alpine is in denial.

But why is he in denial on this board? Why doesn't he go to the Jersey one? They could probably use some denial, too...

here is another...

"Somebody show proof Manhattan prime prices have actually DROPPED and are lower. From what I hear sales have slowed somewhat but prices are stable."

from just yesterday on curbed.

"The revised figures will show prices were stable. There may be the normal monthly fluctuation."

Wow, one more for the denial pool...

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/7192-bergen-county-high-end-market-still-strong

nyc10022, let's have a discussion. Not a single person in the past 4 days has had anything to say here, but you keep going. Take a rest. It'll be good for you.

do you add anything at all to this board?

seriously

why do you spend any time here?

This entire thread was 95% nyc10022. He was actually talking with himself, and he resurrected it from dead status just to add "lol". This is Christmas, not Easter. No need to be resurrected from the dead.

Easter?