NYC - Resilient City
Started by uwsmom
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1945
Member since: Dec 2008
Discussion about
Has this article been posted yet? It's interesting. http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/30/new-york-new-york-americas-resilient-city/
I really admire Glaesar's work on NYC rent stabilization.
However, I disagree with several assumptions in this article. First, NYC housing bubble is nowhere close to bursting; if you look at past recessions, NYC's housing prices decline later than other cities. This is due to the time it takes for the effects of the financial layoffs to be fully absorbed by the real estate market.
Second, it is a BIG assumption that NYC will continue to attract smart and talented people. With high paying jobs leaving the city, why would gifted people want to live in NYC, with its high cost of living and inconveniences? Also, NYC's bloated welfare state, budget shortfall, and liberal politicians, will lead to much higher taxes, and that will drive away the rich and smart people. Also, violent crime will rise in the next several years, reverting NYC back to its 1970's and 1980's dark days.
This was an interesting article. Thank you for sharing.
Positive news about our city goes over like a lead balloon on streeteasy. If you posted an article about a bleak economic outlook, that would surely generate interest.
It's a negative crowd here and they don't respond to uplifting articles.
Rufus, I'll gladly take an analysis from Glaseasar than take advice from a moronic troll like you.
And as one of those "wealthy and talented people" you, as a peon, seem to obsess over, we aren't going anywhere... and certainly not to Chicago.
Inconveniences? New York is now inconvenient? LOL.
Regardless of your bear/bull stance, this is an interesting article
S63, you are not wealthy. Let me guess. You live in an 80/20 "luxury" rental building?
LOL!
In an attempt to stay on topic....
It may be true that NYC attracts the best and the brightest, but IMO, that's not the glue that could potentially hold this RE market together. It's the money - the mega money that exists in this city.
I do think we will continue to see RE prices fall, especially into '09 as more layoffs occur, but I also think, in true NYC fashion, it will eventually bounce back (b/c of $$$) and continue to dominate the country in sales.
uwsmom, where will this money come from? The era of big wall street bonuses are over, and lawyers and doctors don't make enough to compensate.
uwsmom, it was a good read and reminds us that NYC is the greatest city in the world. People always are attracted to NYC and it is a magnate for talented people. Don't entertain rufus, he is a NYC hater, mainly because he can't afford it here. He is from the Midwest, so his perspective is very narrow and relates only to the way things are in Chicago.
As I said earlier, most Streeteasy posters only like to hype the negative news. They are people that cannot afford NYC either and want RE to drop 50% in value (wishful thinking). And rufus doesn't even live here, he is Chicago Mayor Daley's croanie who has the job of trying to promote Chicago and attempt to lure NYers to Chicago on this worthless website. Basically, he has a typical Chicago no-show job, but attempts to justify it by hijacking this NY website by trashing NY and glorifying Chicago.
Rufus, Chicago's population LOST 2% since 2000 census, while NY has GROWN 3.6% since 2000.
If by gentrification of Chicago, you mean abandonment, yes, Chicago is ahead of NY.
They aren't over forever.
Ebb and flow
Manmade systems will never get an edge over mother nature's balancing act. Ever watch a pendulum swing?
here comes the $12K/month mariachi players singing their way over on the George Washington bridge.... hooray S63 (crappy car by the way - hope u leased)... Hooray we're saved... Soup for Everyone...
Tiny bubbles... tiny bubbles....
uwsmom.. I bet average of $500psf on prime UWS units before we see average $2000psf anytime soon (like in my three legged dog's lifetime... :)
rufus... if I change my handle to "GulfstreamV" that means I'm richer than any other person on this thread...
unless of course:
himwhoownsalltheworldgoldandabevyofyoungladiesinsaudiarabia comes along... oh well I coulda been a contender!
isn't w67thstreet the stay at home Mr.Mom? Shouldn't you be watching The View right now?
Nothing wrong with being a Mr.Mom... glad that we have the resources/luxury of not having our kids love the nanny more than the parents... dude its 2008, I can single-handle it to Hawaii and I can change a diaper.. It's called a renaissance man... you should try it... nope with a mentality like yours, we wouldn't hang out in the same circles... much less respect you... I'll give you the view (sorta witty)... but much prefer the history channel :)
Cost me like $500 hr to write that... u should appreciate my time :)
You're definetly right. We would not hang out togehter. I still have boundaries and equally love my kids.
I'm sure your favorite TV channels are Soap Opera Network and Lifetime, whereas I watch ESPN and SNY and YES. Definetly not the same circles.
Enjoy the renaissance. My contribution to your renaissance will be holding the door for you and standing when you come to the table.
Do you prefer Palmolive for the dishes or Sunlight?
I have yet to post a thread that hasn't been hijacked by egomaniacs.
what ever happened to old-fashioned, polite discourse?
Mr. mom - hilarious! Meanwhile, this guy loves to tear apart real estate brokers as being useless idiots while his wife is the one bringing home the bacon. I may be a lowly real estate broker but at least I have a real man!
AgentRachel, that thing you keep in the nightstand doesn't count.
classy jgr. very classy. let me guess, u r a stay-at-home too?
"I have yet to post a thread that hasn't been hijacked by egomaniacs."
Why would an egomaniac want to publish on an anonymous board?
This is my thread now. If you want it back, it will cost $2 million.
SomailPirate - LMAO!
Somali Pirate is clever =)
Any man who makes his family a priority is golden in my book! REAL men are hard to come by. Somali pirates...they're more prevalent.
wow, this thread is out of control (until somalipirate came aboard). the article says that while NYC real estate might suffer some declines, the city will bounce back. what's wrong with that line of thinking?
I used to like Streeteasy, when there were on-topic discussions.
uwsmom -- We're done with it here. We're in finance. DH got layed off 2 weeks ago from a fund that's reeling from redemptions. My bank did round 3 of layoffs in Oct, let go 26% and will do another round next month. All of my collegues are worried about expenses and employment, and wondering what line of work we can re-invent ourselves into. Public schools are somewhere between overcrowded, rezoned or lottery, private school is 50k when you add in nannies and summer programs. The indexes are down over 40%, ibanks are gone, BS, MS, GS, LEH and the whiped away huge personal wealth ...and realestate is only down only 7%? WTF?
I'll collect my unemployment check in Miami thank-you-very-much.
sorry to hear about your misfortune. I didn't write the article, just thought it was interesting food for thought =)
"Why would an egomaniac want to publish on an anonymous board?"
Agree. Only egomaniacs post all of their personal info on anonymous boards.
"REAL men are hard to come by."
Don't I know it!
JuiceMan: "Only egomaniacs post all of their personal info on anonymous boards."
IMHO, only idiots say about real estate what some have said.
steve, are you calling me an idiot?
New York Housing Prices Expected to Fall Further
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123068142001844023.html
Yeah it sux uwsmom, but we'll rally again. The point is, if a historic calmanity in finance doesn't impact nyc real estate substantially then what will? Or does the re mkt simply lag far, far behind the rest of the economy? At some point doesn't housing have to be supported by wages? Hell, if not wages then at least credit availability?
> The point is, if a historic calmanity in finance doesn't impact nyc real estate
> substantially then what will?
To make this kind of assessment, one would actually have to look at data POST the calamity. Case Shiller only goes through October...
nyc10022 -- good point. I suppose we've been feeling it in my side of the biz since liquidity started to dry up in Aug 07. But yes, Lehman was really the bell for the broader audience.
Its great that NYC is the greatest city in the world...but it was over-reflected in the prices, especially now that the whole world has been revalued, from crude to corn to stocks.
PS: I took a course with this Prof at Harvard. He's not saying we won't get cut in half, he is saying that when we are, it won't mean the end of the city.... Stop arguing one issue with support for a different one. The 1987 crash didn't unseat NYC as the capital of the world, so neither need this crisis. However, I have to admit from where I seat (a finance person) it is hard to argue this is simply a cyclical decline in the finance industry, rather than both a cyclical decline and a secular decline... But who knows.
"nyc10022 -- good point. I suppose we've been feeling it in my side of the biz since liquidity started to dry up in Aug 07. But yes, Lehman was really the bell for the broader audience."
Here is the easiest way to think about it.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJI&t=6m&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
Dow started October at almost 11k. 7-10 days in, it was 8500, coming near 8k end of month. It his 7500 in November.
Also, bailout discussion was October as well. For those who didn't catch the stock market moves, this probably locked it in for a lot of Americans.
Obviously, there were Wall Street worries before, but I think the overall economic panic, where everything was going into the toilet, was really in October.
alrighty.... the dude who did the somali pirates.. pls out yourself... that was very good! My compliments to the Chef!
jgr and stevie thxs for the back up while I was busy running around w/ the mrs getting our usual festivis foods... namely lots of champagne.
First oldbuyer.... some jedi mind tricks first. You bought into NYC awhile ago, you get the premium sports package from Time Warner, you have 2 (cause 3 is unaffordable w/ your salary) children that you raised in a one bdrm in NYC sending them to public schools and you are the sole breadwinner so mrs. should be the only one doing dishes and if its a choice between the View and a yankees game... then the wife takes a long 5 hr walk, you do not want to splurge for 2 tvs much less another $10 for cable box. In 2001 you didn't flee NYC bc where would you go to get another menial job that pays $80K/yr in the rest of America.
Every year since that time your $100K Lincoln Towers apartment that you raised your two children in grew in value... and the more you grew to love NYC. You are old but have another 10 years to retirement and not much of a nest egg as it is hard to save anything on your salary... but lo and behold the magic bubble happened... and you could see the light at the end of the tunnel... you'll sell the one-bdrm for $1MM dollars just as soon as union rules allow you to retire and you could join your relatives in Miami, no? Then the Bubble pops there goes your dream... so you troll Streeteasy to figure out what to do... you come across an "on-line" persona that is the antithesis of your sad life.. he's got a doc (beautiful after 2 kids) as a wife, 2 kids in private school, $1MM in bank, younger (40ish), yacht club member, 2 nannies, 2 porsches, 1RR and I forgot the Honda Odyssey (but really kids car), and travels to maui 3x/yr (yes w/ nannies in tow), and sidestepped the biggest RE bubble known to mankind..... and (drum roll pls) your put down is "Mr.Mom." LMAS
I know what you speak about... I'm not that guy juggling 2 milk bottles, a bjorn, diaper bags, and two strollers. I'm the guy with my 3yo on the shoulder while holding the hand of my 5 yo headed to our usual carousel rides while the nannies (plural) push the stroller and has the diaper bags ready at the crack of dawn.
FYI... I own my own commercial RE company and its like totally passive income, and I was smart enough to get a LC from citibank for my largest tenant while the landlord had more leverage 5 years ago.... i.e. your tax money lets me sleep beautifully at nite. LMAS again. I'm a principal that means I make my own schedule - attorneys, architects, bankers, tenants, construction workers and borkers work around my schedule.
oldbuyers.. pls just go watch Ewing miss that jumper in game 7 for the 1000th time and don't bother me... while I satisfy my wife again :)
AgentRachel..... Jane you ignorant slut... egomaniac.. .who's the one telling everyone you just did a $10MM deal? FYI... I supported my wife all through med school.. even when she questioned her career choice and did some consulting (McKinsey)... and when we got married, I paid off all her student loans (including undergrad) and bought her a 3carat Tiffany ring for $80K... made my first $1MM by 25 and $10MM (net worth) by 35.. I don't think that "rabbit" in your bedstand can do that or ever will. Maybe you shoulda been a doctor? then we coulda made beautiful music together, no? Peace out 10X
uwsmom.. sincere apologies for somaling your post.... what's your definition of resilient?
> As I said earlier, most Streeteasy posters only like to hype the negative news. They
> are people that cannot afford NYC either and want RE to drop 50% in value (wishful thinking).
Yes, we'll ignore the fact that the majority of news is negative...
How about the folks who put their head in the sand while screaming "its just because you can't afford it".
The sort of rationalization is so curbed 2007.
whoa! looks like i hit a nerve 67th!
"Mr. mom - hilarious! Meanwhile, this guy loves to tear apart real estate brokers as being useless idiots while his wife is the one bringing home the bacon."
Yes, because raising a baby is only the work of useless idiots...
But why am I surprised that the flailing RE broker is also completely shallow.
> "I may be a lowly real estate broker but at least I have a real man!"
Ah, AgentRachel, continuing to set back women another 100 years...
So, making no contribution to this earth is ok if you have a "real man"?
Keep this idiot away from every young woman in America...
thx nyc
AgentRachel... do me a favor, at the end of every month... I want you to ask this one question... did I make more money this month than my last.... :)
None of you people seem to have a clue as to what you are talking about. Yes, nyc is going to have major declines int he next 2 quarters. The reason however that the declines lag the rest of the country is because there is no subprime crisis in Manhattan, nor will there be (note I said "crisis.") It's pretty simple: Manhattan is 75-80 percent co-op. Co-op boards don't approve owners that can't pay the carrying costs. The co-ops added a safe layer of redundancy that the banks and regulators ignored. People who bought apartments in Manhattan (if they bought a co-op, and most people did, since that's the vast majority of the housing stock) were people who could afford to buy it, and who don't have to worry about selling immediately if they lose their jobs. Boards wouldn't approve them otherwise. That's why you are seeing what is happening now - sellers are listing and then taking off the market and/or deciding to wait it out if they don't get their price. Most people in co-ops can afford their carrying costs if they are not in dire straights and need to sell asap. So, it'll take some time for the market to come down more, but it will happen.
Sellers don't matter. Demand has gone away. And when have declines ever lasted only a few quarters? And aren't you forgetting all these empty glass condos? It only takes a handful of desperate sellers to reset the market price... They don't even need to be desperate, the need only be divorcing, moving, unemployed... Its called the 'marginal seller' for a reason. You are hung up on the 'average seller'. Econ 101.
I have not developed a definition. Ask Glaeser.
Can anyone explain w67thstreet posts? He is completely out of it. This is not meant to be his personal psychotherapy postings.
w67thstreet=tool
I agree. The way he attacked this women above was nothing short of deranged.
oldbuyers -did I hit a nerve? It's banter, back and forth... you say my on-line persona sucks b/c xyz and I say "your mama." Throw in some witty repartee (that's french you know) and it's really great if the parties involved keep it on topic. If you don't get what's going on, you're right we can't ever hang out. Sorry dude... why don't you just club your wife in the head and have your way with her... isn't that what they do on the Flintstones... me I'm a Southpark guy...Doh!
nycjunior1.. (what happened to junior0?) I agree with you, part of the delay in NYC is a function of Co-Op and our city's peculiarities, but a job loss is a job loss and a bubble is a bubble... that 24 months of co-op reserves held in escrow... well only lasts for 24 months. But I know of no economic agent who just lost his/her job and will never ever get that same compensation in the same industry in this great city who's saying thank goodness I have 24 months CC/RE Tax in escrow cause that is surely the hardest nut to swallow... nope usually the mortgage is the biggest. So riddle me this batman if there are artificial barriers and non immediate-economic forces at work... does it mean we never get to the correct "price equilibrium?"
Oh... oldbuyers... this is on your level, so it may hurt.... I've never had an interaction with you until this thread... look above (no not that way... at the screen you moron).. who started it? How's that piece of raw meat tasting? ... you sports cable watching HS GED Neanderthal...
Dudes... I just read my post and gota say... I'm back at the top of my form... thank goodness for the yellow ones!
Oh.. agentrachel... if you have a "real man" shouldn't you be not working and watching he "View"... maybe you should marry oldbuyer? Gufaw! Gufaw!
i don't like the view. i work when i want because i want to, not cause my man can't support me. your pathetic.
did I hit a nerve? At least I offered my wife the option :) Her work is meaningful.. I see it in the patient families' faces when I go to pick her up. If you didn't show up would 15 support staff be out of work or a life not be saved? if she said I'd rather do an open house and not raise the kids... .well I would never ever marry a person like that... no matter how big her knockers:)
w67thsteet: While people from many different income levels have been losing there jobs, not all of them were people who were apt owners. And in a city that is 80 percent rental, most were not. I think that most of the people in the financial industry were renting luxury apartments or were buying condos - they weren't buying co-ops. So we'll see the most depreciation in condos, or they can just be easily rented (no board approval/restrictions,) so we won't necessarily see as many listings since nyc still has a robust (although weakening) rental market. I know several people who've been laid off from hedge funds and investment banks in the last couple of months and they are able to stay in there luxry rentals and other apartments because they received good severances (also, this is why unemplyment applications are still lagging, because they can't apply until those payments stops.) The financial types aren't going to be in a desperate situation even without a job. They can move into a lowe cost rental/sublet while they look for work, or probably wait it out with their condo (or rent it.) Unfortunately for me, this will probably move them into looking at the lower end of the housing market, while making the hugh end less competitive.
I have a hunch (based on personal and social experience) that many of the co-op buyers over the past 5 years do not have very large mortgages due to siginficant help from family with purchases or guarantors, and they feel they can wait for a year or two until the market starts to come back (not that I believe it's going to come back like they think it will...)
What I think will lower prices most (in co-ops) is if there is a good 'ole fashioned crime wave that makes parents from the suburbs and other transplants unwilling to help there children buy in new york. The Madoff crisis will probably help too.
w67th - glad at least 1 person in your marriage has a real career. we've already established that you are mr. mom and your wife makes the $$$. glad that works for u. when ur wife gets home exhausted wondering why she married a useless blogger, u can take pride in being a new-age man. please stop attacking those of us with more traditional families. mr. mom works for you, doesn't work for me. no need for anymore arguing and disgusting vulgarities.
Rhino86 you (hypocritical) deranged Wharton educated MBA douche bag... you don't repartee with me on another thread.. but gotta piggyback on oldbuyers...
I'm tired of typing so I'll let your words speak for themselves:
"SteveF you are a fucking idiot."
"Signing out shitheads."
"I'd be f'n your unsatisfied wife." - this one the moderator deleted.
FYI....the one person more despicable that an idiot is a hypocritical one...
ar... selective reading... like selective "market reading" is a terrible disease.. you should be more learned.... oh but you're not... you said "f" the higher education... I'd rather be at the beach.. .and every point in your life when there was a more difficult road/more meaningful choice you chose... the RE Brokerage one.
I would roll in my grave if my daughter or son became a RE broker after all our hard work... for me a broker such as yourself is just a female version of a car salesman... peddling stuff you yourself could never afford. Such a moron AR... dildos are clean.. .it's what you do with them that's "dirty." :)
ar you still gotta work... bc yo ucan "schedule" your schedule around your pilates class doesn't have the same impact as my ability to schedule around my children's needs. Get it right... my on-line persona is a big deal with a lot of $ ...I AM A Principal! I peetered out :)
ok w67th... whatever you say.
AR... my on-line persona is not not not A RE Broker... when UD/Hardgrp closes on my 3bdrm CPW deal... they'll set you straight... :)
I wouldn't work with a disgusting person like you even if your wife really was going to buy that apartment
this is unreal. i had seen this article on the times too and am pretty familiar with glaeser's work. and then i see this post and how quickly it settles into childish, sexist & ignorant name calling. i'm just going to ignore all of that and only respond to any substantive comments. i'd politely ask those of you arguing about issues other than what the original poster posted to create your own post and carry on here. some of us actually would like to discuss this article. sheesh.
so as for the article, i think ed glaeser makes a really good point which is that the real basis of NYC's success has been human capital. the idea that it's smart people which make this city hum and create wealth. granted our most recent model of wealth creation in this city might have taken a heavy blow, and might not ever recover completely, but the amazing stock of intelligent, creative people in the city give a good chance that whatever becomes the driving force of wealth creation in the future will have some strong roots here. so in the long-term, my guess is that RE prices will not drop in nyc (short term yes). My guess is the bottom will hit sometime around the 3rd or 4th Qtr of '09. Of course no one really knows how or when the economy is going to recover, so it could be sooner or it could be later. it's especially hard to tell simply because much of what is happening has not really happened before and so it is really hard to understand how the markets will recover. i've seen forecast's of a slow, drawn out recovery, and i've seen forecasts of actually pretty sharp recovery. there's really no telling how exactly it will shake out.
i also agree with nycjunior1 in that coops will do relatively ok - the losses will be much more skewed towards condos, especially newer construction and 1-3 family homes in genetrifying neighborhoods where most of nyc's foreclosures are.
that said, could we please keep this civilized? thanks!
by the way, i've been clicking "report abuse" button on the worst offenders on this thread. hopefully they'll get banned. i've also emailed streeteasy to raise this issue. i encourage anyone else annoyed with the off-topic, inappropriate posters to do the same.
thanks.
> While people from many different income levels have been losing there [sic] jobs, not all of them
> were people who were apt owners.
True... but it seems that a bigger portion of those who did were...
Wall Street was 30% of NYC income (city data) and 1/3 of apartment buyers (corcoran data). Don't need to tell you what happened there...
> I wouldn't work with a disgusting person like you even if your wife really was going to buy that
> apartment
Agent calling the kettle...
;-)
"Now be a real man a pick your wife up from work. If she saw the disgusting language you used, I bet she'd be so proud she married you. She must be a troll. No good looking woman marries a mr. mom."
Are you serious with this?
What are you, 15 years old?
nyc10022 is the most disgusting, vile, toxic "man" on this site. He is bitter, lonely, and jaded, and his posts and language reflect that.
Why anyone even entertains anything he says is beyond me. He is like the senile old homeless man that talks to himself. You have to learn to ignore anything that he says. Most of the time, he converses with himself on here as so many people have ignored his comments.
w67thstreet is an unemployed loser who cannot even support his own family, if he even has one.
excessively uses :) :) :) and is extremely unstable. Somewhat of a psycho actually as he reveals TMI for a public anonymous forum. Actually is very unstable.
gomuppets... I couldn't agree more there are some truly horrendous people on this board. They will attack made up on-line personas with vile words like mr.mom, unemployed etc... I too am hitting the "report abuse" as quickly as I can type.
oldbuyers... i like nyc10022... he's way more "stable" than I am... so your hatred of him speaks volumes about your on-line behaviour (king's english sp.) Have you let your dishwashing wife know that you are 1/10 the man you were b/f the RE meltdown? If you equate money with "Manhood" => therefore your loss of the bubble nest egg would mean you are less of a man. Have you had the you've got to wash dishes and I have to splice cable boxes for 20 more years conversation yet?
Seriously, pls tell me that I'm wrong. If you weren't so vexed about your decision not to "cash out" at the top in 2007, you'd think my vulgar Southpark like humor was mildly entertaining... but it hits you in the gut. I didn't create the bubble... I just did a Heisman move and side-stepped this sucker all together. Like I said.. I look on with glee every month that I pay rent and see my downpayment grow and see that 3bdrm CPW apt get closer to $2MM. So I gotz an interest in this thing... you? what's your deal?
AR... you should speak openly with your husband about sex... it's a beautiful thing and makes babies ...and if a little adult toy makes you guys happy... then where's the harm... (FYI there's this guy in Oklahoma that buys $20B of adult toys and videos every year.. it's not you or your husband, your dad or mom, your granddad or grandma... and definitely not your nieces or nephews) the ultimate goal of our species on this planet. My wife is the greatest Ying to my Yang.. like I said.. I think she's the hottest doc in NYC and is often mistaken for the med student..and she went to a Ivy Med school where they are infamous for selecting the best looking girl candidates and letting in some marginally bright jocks... but some moron needs to be a ortho-pod.
>traditional families - i.e. women stay home.. .no gay marriages, no inter-racial marriages, no blacks on buses... what are you an evangelical.. go live in OKC, OK.
w67street is an excellent example of another online crazy poster, with his sexual innuendo, male as traditional female role at home, and "funny" points of view like borkers.
nycjunior... I came from modest background... so to see this city go from an economically diversified happening city to one where I can't take a piss on the street wo peeing on a banker makes me wish for the old days... and it makes me laugh to no end to know personally another family with two children that gets an "allowance" from their parents to be able to afford it in NYC... but I digress again.
I am assuming by family help... you are speaking of a larger down-payment of the more traditional 20 to 30% required by most Co-Ops... and while I agree with that statement... there was a tremendous amount of liquidity (wrongly implemented by the Fed since Long Term Capital debacle.. .should have let it go under IMHO) that fueled much of the "help" from what you consider wealthy families. These parents sat in a home in OKC and said my house is worth $2MM today from $500K 10 yrs ago... and my gay son wants to go to NYC to be a dancer (I've got gay member in my family - so pls don't get nutz on that stmt... it just adds flavor). He cant' afford it so I'll get a HELOC (home equity line of credit) and pay for my son's downpayment and 24mos CC. While I'm at it and since my RE broker says RE is a sure thing... I'll buy 3 more units. Now the party is great and everyone is feeling great until the liquidity spigot is frozen solid. And that my friend is where we are today. I am sure the parents are speaking with their dancer son and saying unless you make it into Swan Lake this season, we are gonna sell... and funny enough b/c NYC is slower to adjust per your stmts... they'll get rid of the most liquid assets.. just like the Hedgies had to do in Sept/Oct 2008. Believe me young man... we are at the first inning...People always want to show off wealth... but NO-ONE will tell you when they are financially afraid... just a fact of life and much more prevalent in NYC.