Upstate NY real estate market in collapse?

seems like the same situation as manhattan...prime properties are unrealistically priced, ie. more than double 3 yrs ago..most of these people don't have to sell and so aren't willing to consider significant price drops. marginal properties are coming down but who needs them anyway.

Yeah, we've been considering making a buy up there as well. I expect prices will continue to soften so I'm not in any rush.

columbiacounty, I'm assuming by your username that you're up in that area. Wondering if you think there are any specific areas that are particularly worth looking at.

It does seem like if you're in the market for at least 5 if not 10-20 acres and a modest but fix upable house, you can really make a play for that type of property in the $400-550K range. You concur?

Not too shabby if so.

very big difference depending on which side of the river you are talking about. yes, I am up the area, have been for many years...what you are describing is much more likely on the west side of the river, ie. ulster, greene counties...on my side, you're still looking at the high end of your range.

Good point. Yes, the differing values on the west v. east side of the Hudson tracks with what I've heard. I am personally interested in looking in Ulster, but my wife is very focused on Dutchess or Columbia counties.

There's probably a simple answer to this, but I've never been able to figure out why the east side of the Hudson carries a higher value than the west.

I'm just above Columbia County. The further you go (generally) the later the acceleration in prices began, and thus the more room for negotiation. Having said that, there are areas that are less expensive regardless of location (Livingston, for example, or New Lebanon, home of the dreaded racetrack, also Stuyvesant). In some areas, Chatham, Ghent, Canaan, you're probably still in the running but barely.

BTW, taxes are really high up here. The rates in the Berkshires are much lower, and when I was looking (2004) the prices weren't that different, although the houses tended to be larger per dollar on the NY side.

The west side developed quite a bit earlier. It has a very different feel than the east side, not necessarily better or worse, but different. I personally love the New Paltz area, and Mohonk, and would love to be within a half and hour or so of the region instead of over an hour away, but we got a 4000sf house, 4 beds/4 baths (built around 1800, renovated) on 3 acres with a pond, stream, horse barn and paddock for under $400K, and I could not have done that near New Paltz.

sorry to disagree but...the east side developed first but with large estates. the west side didn't really happen until the thruway opened up in the late 50's. access to the east side remains with the taconic which has had a bad rap for many years. bottom line is that the east side of the river adjacent to first ct and then mass is much higher priced than the land to the west. ironically, the bad rap on the taconic is all wrong...a lot less traffic --- once you get past poughkeepise, it's you, the deer and the cops. as opposed to the thruway which is always congested.

I meant "developed." Obviously I have a home built in 1800, that's on the early side for anywhere. I agree with you in essence, which is why I think the feel is so different.

The Taconic is great, except when they close it due to flooding. It's also a bitch sometimes in Putnam, and Upper Dutchess is crawling with cops and they'll pull you over for 5 over.

I didn't find Mass that much higher priced. Great Barrington and Lenox, yes, but not other areas.

Do either of you - columbia county and/or aboutready - have any recommendations for particular areas in Upstate NY/Berkshires that offer good value but are also desirable to live?

prothchild, I think it depends on luck to some extent, I bought in 2004 and the prices then were all over the place. It also depends on how much land you need/want and think carefully about whatever land you're looking at. Some land is easy, some is a lot of work. My lender would also only write a mortgage for a house and four acres. Above four acres and I had to make up the difference in cash, which was a problem with one property I looked at. Also consider how difficult it will be to access your property in the winter.

A few questions you should ask yourself. Do you like to go out, or do you want to cook? Can you get out of the city with a car full of food on Friday night or will you leave on Saturday morning and still need to go grocery shopping? This sounds silly, but really, sometimes it seems as though you aren't up there and done with shopping until 5 at night, and some areas are a half an hour from any real grocery store. When you look at a map, don't look necessarily at location, but rather access to highways, as certain towns that look easily accessible aren't. Some of those are great areas (Malden Bridge/Old Chatham is an example, and one of my favorite areas), but quite a hike from anything. Do you ski, do you want something low-key (Bosquiet, Catamount) or much more active (Hunter)?

Generally I'd recommend the areas that are accessible to some more active area. Copake (not the lake, unless that's your thing), Hillsdale, Canaan are close to the Berkshires. Kinderhook, Ghent are accessible to Albany. Chatham is charming, and about 25 minutes from Hudson. The area around Taghanick (sp) is beautiful, and close to Dutchess county.

The MLS site is www.columbianortherndutchessmls.com. Also worth a look is the capital region mls system. That's where I found my home, and it really should have been cross-listed with Columbia County's for marketing purposes. Find a broker you like (I used Amy Strunk-Reinhold at Lynn Strunk in Kinderhook, very happily showed me around the entire damn county, I'll try to locate my Berkshire broker as well, he was great but VERY low key), pick an area reflecting about a quarter/third of the county and go see 8 or so properties a weekend for a few weeks.

I purchased property and built a house near Hudson about 5 years ago. Property values in my hamlet never really increased that much, while friends in the Hamptons saw their homes double over the same period. There is an aweful lot of land available upstate while land availabilty is constrained in the Hamptons. I think you have to look at any purchase upstate as 'consumption' rather than an investment. The property that I purchased was on the market for over two years. There's not a lot of liquidity for land and it's only a little better for houses.
On the other hand, I have a house on 14 acres with a breathtaking water view that couldn't be purchased in the Hamptons for 5x what I paid. My property value is still withing the FNMA conforming limit so people can still get financing (try getting a loan for a 4mm second house in the Hamptons now). I love the area- there are no crowds, great restaurants and interesting things to do. It's a real escape from NYC and I fully recommend it but be realistic about any property purchase. It's probably not going to be a great investment.

The areas close to NYC, of course.

Interesting enough, Buffalo and such are doing extremely well (relatively) because they didn't see much of a bubble. If anything, Buffalo is getting to be a slightly nicer place...

interesting info from mattlamb.

we purchased land in 2000 to the east of where he describes and saw property values around us go through the roof. a lot of new construction and crazy prices all of which came to a complete standstill in the summer of 2007.

i would agree that the only way to think about re in this area is about using and enjoying it. also, if you are willing to drive another 1/2 hr, i.e. total from uptown manhattan (light traffic) 2 3/4 hrs, you will be amazed at what you can get.

I agree with aboutready above about being clear about what you are looking for and understanding the realistic travel time involved. we have gotten used to (and don't really notice) the 40 mile round trip for groceries etc but i can imagine that being a shocker if you are not prepared.

Interesting. I've been casually looking at properties upstate and from what I've seen as well as heard from owners and brokers, both sides of the river are getting killed. Especially further reaches such as Dutchess, Columbia, Orange, Ulster, Greene. Pockets are holding up, but they are predominantly Rockland/Westchester. Once you're further north, all bets are off. Regardless of which side of the river you're on.

Why? Inventory. Lots of it.

Even better pickings are in CT, and yes, taxes are significantly lower there.

> Why? Inventory. Lots of it.

Bingo.

Fact is, there is SO MUCH land available if you are willing to drive past the burbs. Catskills have so much of it, and the hotels and such have been failing for years, so not much of an economy.

Also, try driving the same distance into PA. Also super cheap.

Man, all these comments are super helpful. Can't say I really expected to get this sort of reaction on a Manhattan-based site.

Full disclosure, I am a former Manhattanite who's been living in Los Angeles for the past 7 years. My wife and I spend a fair amount of time in NYC on business and my wife, who grew up in the Berkshires, has been hungering to buy a 2nd home Upstate/Berkshires for some time now.

But I'm flying much more blind on all this - having grown up on the West Coast - so all of the insight here is great. Very practical information. Keep the insights coming for those so inclined.

Not quite what you're asking, but I offer it anyway: I bought in Putnam in 2001, at a good price for a very modest house on a lake. Prices and taxes (which were never low) have skyrocketed, and there is now a wave of foreclosures and pre-foreclosures in the area. The problem (probably the same as higher up the Hudson, too) is that recent purchasers paid unsustainable (for now, anyway) prices and the foreclosures are still asking more (high mtg amounts) than the properties will be worth for a time. You'd be best off with something, if you could find it, like an estate sale, where the last owners lived there for a long time and there can be more flexibility in price because they are making money most of the way down.

I considered buying the pre-foreclosure next door to me. Then I realized that, for half the ask, I could improve my own property to the same point, and I have a much better view, even if I have a smaller place. Since I use it as a weekend place, and mainly in summer, that made much more sense to me.

Of all the areas for second homes, I would bet that the Berkshires have maintained the greatest value as there is relatively little turnover and new construction compared to many other areas. We moved from Dutchess County about 8 yrs ago after more than 20 new homes were built along our road in a span of two yrs! I would highly recommend the Berkshire area either in Mass or on the NY side -- reasonable distance from Manhattan and the option of enjoying the countryside or going into town when appropriate.

I'm going to be in Rhinebeck late next week, looking at properties for the first time in and around that area.

Part of that search will include looking at some properties across the Hudson from Rhinebeck - on the west side of the river. Curious to see how the price differential works.

Great! Let us know what you see/hear.

Glad to hear you're going to take a look.

A couple of thoughts for you.

Rhinebeck is centrally located to a number of very different communities with significantly different pricing and feels, i.e. Millbrook to the southeast, Clinton to the south, Red Hook/Milan to the north and east and then across the river Saugerties, the Woodstock area and the city of Kingston.

As a generality (with many exceptions) as you cross the Taconic to the east, prices go up and there is a more rural, larger acreage feel. Lower pricing in the towns of Clinton, Red Hook & Milan vs Millbrook and Amenia. If you have time take a ride through the Smithfield valley to see the most high end area.

Any other questions, feel free

p.s.

recommend www.mydreamhouse.com and follow the links to houses rather than agents to get an overview.

i just rented a place in rhinebeck in december for vacation and it really made me want to live there. its such a nice area

columbiacounty, one factor that I'm also weighing is ease of transportation (presumably by train) up to various parts of Upstate. My wife and I primarily live in Los Angeles so our trips up to the house would likely be by train (and maybe leave a car parked up there) as opposed to having a car and driving out of the City.

So, are there certain areas that are much more difficult to access by train? I've heard, for instance, that Saugerties is trickier to get to than, say, Rhinebeck.

But I could be wrong. I don't have a great feel for taking the train upstate.

three options for the train all of which run on the east side of the Hudson. Two lines for metro north -- the commuter line---less comfortable seats, much lower fare and terminate at poughkeepsie on the west with very good access to the mid hudson bridge and wasaaic in the east with good access to the millbrook/amenia area but definitely not practical for travel across the river.

amtrak also runs trains along the east side of the river on the same tracks as metro north with the next stops after poughkeepsie at rhinecliff (reasonable access to kingston bridge) and hudson which opens up the columbia county area. these trains run less frequently, generally need reservations for peak times, are notoriously late and are considerably more expensive---hudson one way i believe is around $40.

i am not familar with thje long term parking situation at any of those stations but I would strongly suggest that you make sure that it is available, safe and reasonably priced before proceeding with any plan involving train to the car. although you can save money over garaging a car in manhattan, I wonder if you are better off with long term parking at the airport based on the situation you have described

Wassaic would also be your option for access to the Berkshires. Hudson wasn't a problem (for parking) a couple of years ago. From Hudson you can cross the Rip Van Winkle Bridge for the west side of the Hudson. For Northern areas, the notoriously awful Amtrak line goes up to Albany (Renssalear, really).

Thanks for the transportation explanation. Very helpful.

Can we revisit this? I'm thinking of buying upstate and continuing to rent in Manhattan. Opinions welcome

prothchild, are you still around?

We've owned 8 hilly, wooded acres with an ugly 70's deck house in Columbia County (actually the Roe Jan Kill, the river that's the border with Dutchess County is our southern property line) and happily weekended there while renting in town for many years. What a pleasure to tell the kids "Go out and run three times around the house." They built forts in the woods, swam in the Kill, and ran after fireflies - a brilliant experience for city kids. Our house was built by the guy who owned the local lumberyard with the best possible materials and the worst possible taste. We did nothing much to it -- this is called "the house restores us, not the other way around." Part of what we like about it is there's nothing to do -- 45 minutes to Tanglewood (a drag to drive in the dark) 40 minutes to the movies in Rhinebeck, 45 minutes to concerts/opera at Bard in Tivoli. No restaurants - we like it this way. We garden, cook, swim in the Kill, watch turkeys and deer amble across the yard. If we lived here full time we'd go NUTS! But it's a great break from city life.

Reasonably priced properties are still selling in Dutchess/Columbia. It's a great part of the world, easy to access and very well priced at the moment.

"They built forts in the woods, swam in the Kill, and ran after fireflies - a brilliant experience for city kids. Our house was built by the guy who owned the local lumberyard with the best possible materials and the worst possible taste. We did nothing much to it -- this is called "the house restores us, not the other way around. Part of what we like about it is there's nothing to do"

wow, i like you already!

check out this link:

http://www.harneyre.com/ourPropertiesR105SoldListingPict.asp

only site that i am aware of that at least gives you the sale vs. listing price. some pretty extraordinary drops.

WOW CC, I'm a buyer at $1.00 for the $2.35MM unit. No there are no other numbers on my bid :)

"STUNNING SALISBURY VIEWS
(EH1355) Salisbury
Bunker Hill Farm has been in one family for over 120 years. Located on 24.73 acres high above the Village. Enjoy this one of a kind location overlooking Salisbury and the rolling hills of Lakeville, Salisbury School, and Barrack Matiff from this antique 1900’s Farmhouse with two barns. Tranquil setting minutes from downtown Salisbury, Lakeville Lake and Mt. Riga for skiing and hiking. Property suitable for a family compound and conservation. A priceless retreat!
Offered at: $2,350,000
SOLD
Closing Price: $1
Date: 3/3/2009"

How are things lately in the upstate RE market?

I'm looking to trade up (southern columbia county) and cannot find anything even remotely interesting. Pricing is not the issue--there's just very little interesting inventory available

Not much interesting in C0lumbia C0unty...

oh look.

>oh look.

What? Did something exciting happen? Tell us. That's what the message boards are for.

How are things lately in the upstate RE market?

And now we know fieldschester is greensdale. But we knew that anyone. Pobrecito

And now we know that cats are approximately as smart as dogs.

Can anyone provide data on price appreciation in the Hudson Valley vs. in the Hamptons? For vacation houses.

Why don't you ask Fieldschester? Or greensdale? They seem interested in that market.

Well this is a message board aboutready, so Fieldschester and greensdale can certainly reply, as can anyone else. That's the way message boards work. Good to be with you on the Streeteasy message board Aboutready.

I don't have data, but as much looking as I've done in both places I can tell you that upstate doesn't compare to the Hamptons in terms of price appreciation. Ask Bill Ackman: hes been trying to sell his estate in Chatham for about five years now.

are you close with bill Jackman?

For vacation houses". Different than a weekend house. The Hamptons is better for a year round house and holiday long weekend location. Unless the owner likes lakes rather than ocean beaches and is willing to take metro north to upstate. The Long Island railroad is more reliable and the hamptons express buses provide an alternative to driving, especially in bad weather