How far are rents down?

that's great for the high end market. I'm paying $2495 for a small (non doorman) one bedroom. I'm hoping in Oct. to find something cheaper or else I'll have to leave this great city for the south.

happyrenter, it's not foolish if that's what's being reported! That's a nice find, but I think we need a bit more than that to start making any declarations, no? Maybe we should turn this into a rental version of the comps thread, though that's a bit tougher to do obviously.

i didn't make a declaration. i posted a rental comp. i did not say that everything is down over 20% because this is. and please do turn this into a rental comp thread, great idea!

julia, something tells me you are going to be ok. how cheap do you need to stay in town?

happyrenter, didn't mean to imply you were saying that. I just think we need to be careful here - some of us get a wee bit overexcited/anxious. Doing a rental thread is tough because we can only really work off asking rents, and very rarely actual rents, but I'll give it a shot. Here's a good one - $5k off (or 38.5%!):

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/rental/410920-condo-121-east-23rd-street-kips-bay-new-york

Yikes!

I agree with bjw2103 - asking prices mean very little, and doing real comps is very difficult (but not impossible). What I understand from the craigslist ad referenced, it's a chop, not a comp. Also meaningful, but tougher to use to determine if/how far rents are falling.

I tried to start a comp thread a week or two ago, but it was largely ignored. I will repost my example from there here in a minute.

happyrenter....i hope, hope you are right. As far as price I really don't know. I'll be looking for an elevator bldg. under $2k

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/7305-rental-comps - link to the comps discussion I tried to start.

Here's the post:
"Not sure how easy it is to do comps for rentals (i.e. use the exact same apartment this year vs. last year, or same line in a building with identical condition), but I think it's worth a try, if others are interested. I'll start:

We live in a Flex 3 with large outdoor space in a doorman building in what I consider to be a pretty good area (although not uber-prime). We pay $5400, and got a month free rent. The management company accidentally slipped a rent bill for the prior tenant under our door. They were paying $6315. No idea whether they got any free, rent, but my guess would be no, since it was virtually unheard of a year ago.

So our rent is 14% lower than the prior tenant's. If you factor in the free month that we got and they probably didn't, effective rent of $4950 works out to 22% lower. Pretty stunning data point, at least to me."

newbuyer,

in this case i know the building and live around the corner and so i know what those two bedrooms have rented for. but you are correct, rental comps are extremely difficult.

Has anyone tried negotiating asking rents in the $2-$3k range? I'm looking at some no-fee places tomorrow, and I was wondering if that was worth a try.

Interesting timing. Just got an email from a friend who rents in a doorman building on UWS, in the low 90s (not the greatest area, but ok). Here's what he said:

"Just called the rental office of my building. They have a few 2 bed apts available exactly the same as mine (even on the same floor) the price
3599 compare to 4050 that I pay now (the ask price for my apt in march 2008 was 4200 and 4050 was negotiated price)"

So that's more than a 10% drop.

Not sure what to make of this, but looks like flat rent here:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/rental/424585-rental-132-wooster-street-soho-new-york

evnyc...i do know that landlords are giving one-two months free rent. They are also paying broker's fees but if you have luck in your price range please post. thanks.

I'll give it a try and report back. Thanks for the intel, Julia.

Julia,

2k can get you a lot of choices for 1-BR walkup on UES. Elevator...haven't seen that but I bet there's a few steals out there.

If you want a 1 bedroom with an elevator for $2k, your only option is FiDi and BPC.

jgr...I have until Oct. so maybe..

"that's great for the high end market. I'm paying $2495 for a small (non doorman) one bedroom. I'm hoping in Oct. to find something cheaper or else I'll have to leave this great city for the south."

Aren't you the one who kept giving us advise on how the market was going to hold up strong, etc. And we find out you're living in a $2495 apt? I've long said that many unknowledgable realt-whores persuaded a good many successful people to make foolish buy decisions at the peak, and now you are proving my point.

Good riddance. Take all your realt-whore friends with you. Take Rufus with you, too.

julia,
go to the coast get some sun, relax!. I own several properties in the Carolinas. How about a walk to the ocean, 2bed, 2bth, $2,500/mnth in Hilton Head, SC

friend of mine got 3 free months at one of the avalon buildings downtown (won't say which one to protect their anonymity). working back the original rent from the amount they told me they were paying over the 15 months, it would have still been overpriced given how small i know those apts are. anyway, the point is there are deals being made, and not just in the financial district

Avalon Chrystie is the only Avalon building downtown that is more than 15 months old.

patient09...I just closed my business, i'm collecting unemployment soooo spending $2500 for a vacation is not on my agenda..getting a job and surviving is my full time job for now. thanks anyay for the suggestion.

Julia,

How about a comment from you like this:

"I was wrong, real estate doesn't go up in a straight line forever. Some of the posters I made fun of on this board actually know a little bit about markets - and that's all real estate is, just another capital market. I guess I got myself involved in a business i didn't know very well."

I have never, ever made "fun" of any poster.it's not in my dna...I ask a lot of questions and i have definitely learned a great deal for the posters. I closed my business in flordia and new york not because it failed but because i was working constantly and I could make the same money in the corporate world. Not wall street money, not even close.

"I closed my business in flordia and new york not because it failed but because i was working constantly and I could make the same money in the corporate world."

Do I recall correctly that it was a real estate brokerage business? And you're trying to get us to believe that you closed this NOT because real estate was in crisis but because you were working too many hours?? And, you chose to go to the corporate world NOW, when layoffs are underway and even corporate people are working till 8pm? Christ, realt-whores are INCAPABLE of telling the truth even AFTER they've stopped being realt-whores.

You're an idiot. Your only role in corporate america will be to serve as a negative example.

WOW, I just recently came to Streeteasy.

Was Julia that bad to deserve such a crushing comment, Admiral?

yep.

Admiral...prove it!

I was not in the real estate business...don't you think i would enter a business that i had knowledge..real estate i have and had no knowledge...my business was a product which sold through a large corporation which sets up people to sell their product...it wasn't brain surgery i subcontracted out and it did fairly well. Your lies and ugly words are very sad that you attack me...i can only imagine how cruel you are in your personal life.

Julia, I have recently looked at one bedrooms on the UES... I found several 1 bedrooms for $1800-$2000 in elevator buildings. Granted they are on the smaller side, 400-500 sq ft and in low-rise, 60's buildings. But they are there and I found them with no fee and some were even offering 1st month free.

obernon...$1800-2000 would be perfect. My lease goes until October but 400-500sqf is perfect...you give me hope. thanks

Try J Lemle & Sons on 84th St. They have a whole bunch of 1 bedrooms on the UES and everyone I dealt with there were very nice and helpful. And of course, no fee. They don't have website but give them a call when you are ready.

Brodsky Org had 2-one bedrooms listed for $2700 and would not budge..NOW...one is listed at $2200 and the other is listed at $2350.

where Julia? What is the address of that 2 bedroom? If it's below 86th St, I will take it right now.

160 west 71st street..doorman bldg.one bedroom, kitchenette aprox. 500sqf/600sqf..it's management by the brodsky organization. good luck

never mind. When I first read your post, I thought you said 2 bedrooms for $2200. Thanks anyway.

"I was never in the real estate business"
- You certainly talked the game of a realt-whore.

"my business was a product which sold through a large corporation which sets up people to sell their product"

- Can someone make an English sentence out of this?

"it wasn't brain surgery"

- I'm stunned

"...i can only imagine how cruel you are in your personal life."

You're not insulting me in the least; i'm the first person to admit on this board: I'm a bastard. I'm an A-hole. I'm an SOB.

It's time for you to take your meds Admiral. Living in your parents' basement and missing out on all that sunlight is really harming your health. Perhaps you can speak to mom about converting the attic into a bedroom?

"It's time for you to take your meds Admiral. Living in your parents' basement and missing out on all that sunlight is really harming your health. Perhaps you can speak to mom about converting the attic into a bedroom?"

My guess is you're a chick, based on the shaming language you use. Pretty plain vanilla stuff; not very creative. Meds, mothers basement, etc. You forgot these old standbys:

- You can't get laid
- You have a small pen!s
- You must be gay.

Next, will you tell me I should "be a man" and "be chivalrous to Julia", or maybe even "step up to the plate and help her financially". LOL.

alpine,with regard to your point about downtown avalons, i meant that they had just (in the last few weeks) negotiated 3 extra months on a new lease. so could be any of them.

A friend rented a place in 07 for 3900 and finished the lease and now it is back on the market for 3600

in a condo

Report from the rental front: no negotiating where I was, but with the 1 month free amortized rent for a rather dark and low-floor 1-br at Le Rivage was $2378. On the upside the apartment has an alcove you can use as a dining room, and the building has a doorman, gym, renovated apartment, roof deck, storage space, and elevator. If my rent on an unrenovated 5th floor walkup goes up at all, I'm going to take it, since currently I have none of those amenities.

you really won't have opportunity to negotiate in a rental building - the salespeople aren't given the authority and for good reason. I'm sure you've met a couple of them - they are basically tour guides, not people who are expert in marketing, finance and real estate, so the owners keep them on a leash

fdb - yes, thank you, that's exactly the scenario. I was just surprised that the difference between my amenity-free rental and the "luxury" rental was so minimal! I didn't even bother attempting to negotiate very much, since it was already about what I was looking for. Just too dark!

I think it is worth bearing in mind that many (all?) rental buildings were built using capital from debt issuance (loans or bonds) and that this debt will have had minimum rental covenants built into them. what this means is that in a lot of rentals, the debt would have to be repaid, immediately, if the minimum rent covenant is breached. this is one reason why the first thing that happens is that free months are offered before the rent is lowered. additionally, if you get free months, rather than negotiating from your reduced, effective rent, but from the old rent

what does this sentence mean: additionally, if you get free months, rather than negotiating from your reduced, effective rent, but from the old rent