Closest person without going over wins
(going by urbandigs.com's charts for consistancy)
We're at 9775...

Bah, that shouldn't have been under "Schools".

April 15th - 10K

ooo, I want to try. I am going to guess March 5th for 10,000.

And for 11,000, I will go with Memorial Day.

10,000: Feb. 10th.
11,000: May 1st

10k, Feb 11th
11k, Mar 6th

whats the prize?

15K June 1 2009 :)

Don't be just bulls

The prize is a house in Detroit, worth a grand total of $1.

You guys are way too optimistic..Try this Sat. Feb 7. Check out the weekly absorption rates the last 8 weeks. Freakin down right scary.

12K July 4, 2009
15K November 15, 2009
.5K(equilibrium) March 9,2014..........................time to celebrate!
One tiny problem...
Last day on earth is December 21, 2012 so I guess we'll never know.

Feb 25th, 10k.

Feb 3

Patient is so very close, but looks like it'll be another few days. Currently at 9,940.

I think Noah's widget is broken today, maybe later today it will be 10k.

I think we're already at 10k...

I think Noah's widget is based off the query below (all listings with an address):

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sales/manhattan/status%3Aopen%7Chas_address%3A1

10K - Feb 11
11K - March 3
12K - April 15

I guess it's not really fair to guess for 10K anymore, but I'll say
10K Feb 10
11K May 10
12K September 10

10K - Feb 11
11K - Mar 19
12K - Jun 10

9972 right now. I'm so going to check at 11:59, maybe there's still a chance.

You win, tonight I'm putting 28 units on the market I bought in 15 CPW on spec, trade not working.

bardamu...ditto

i win...(the Feb #)

maxdamp,
Not an amazing feat but, kudos!
Good call! OK, when do we exit this nightmare?
Strap on you 'Roubini thinking cap' and get back to us...oh Swami

10,002 right now!

I just checked and we're already over 10500. I'm surprised at how fast it has gone up.

I personally know just as many people who are "thinking of listing their apartment" as have it currently listed. I don't know of a single person seriously considering buying in the next 12 months (or at least until it is cheaper to buy than rent on an out-of-pocket basis - because you can no longer count on the mortgage tax deduction in perpetuity).

We are still in fine shape inventory wise, we have about a 2 year supply w/ 450 going into contract each month. The real question is when do we get to 20,000?

Unless of course a 2 year supply is a lot. I'm not certain. Any thoughts?

dmag, for some perspective, the last couple of years sales have been running at about 10K a year. And even then, 10K would have been considered alot.

I guess all depends on the rate those units are absorved, at this point I think the rate is a trickle

mbz: "because you can no longer count on the mortgage tax deduction in perpetuity)."

I think it makes perfect sense that when you are in the middle of the biggest housing crisis in 100 years that you should do all that you can to remove any benefits to buying a home.

It's CLASSIC economic theory that when you're in a recession, you ought to raise, raise, raise, raise taxes on those responsible for creating jobs. Yeah, that's the ticket.

On a national basis the home inventory-to-sales ratio has climbed from a low of 4 months (inventory-to-sales) several years ago to a current figure of 9.5 months which is largely in line with what we saw n the early 1990s. 6 months supply is generally considered a "balanced" market.

It would appear that the Manhattan inventory-to-sales ratio is considerably higher than the national numbers although I'm not sure of the precise way in which the ratio is calculated. (Do you annualize the sales pace over the most recent month? Or do you take a longer period?) I would, however, note that most people think that the inventory numbers understate the real inventory as many developers only release a small percentage of their units for sale at any given time.

Topper, I agree with you that there's a shadow inventory out there, but I don't know how to estimate it. I think though, that as long as you're using a consistent methodology over time (same search criteria), it at least allows you to see trends. Of course, there could be fluctuations in the percentage of shadow inventory out there that would be hidden here, but it's something.

Agree, wishhouse.

I just treat the "shadow inventory" as a big footnote to any sort of calculation of the number of months of inventory that is currently out there.

I would hesitate to annualize January contract numbers also as that is a seasonally slow sales period. We're just starting to approach the spring selling season. Expect an uptick in sales - but a disappointing season nonetheless (at least for the brokerage community).

On a slightly different but related note, I can't wait for UD to update his charts so they go back more than 6 months. He mentioned in a post recently that he has the data. I think seeing how the market fluctuates in different seasons will be really useful as well.

Actually, Topper, I would have agreed with you wholeheartedly until recently. Actually I wrote almost exactly what you did about this being a slow time for sales just recently, and then someone somewhere pointed out that in the big bad bonus environment this hasn't truly been a seasonally slow sales period the last couple of years.

In terms of shadow inventory, of course it's always been there. But it had been absorbed at a fairly consistent rate. The shadow inventory today is out there with little to no hope of being absorbed at close to yesterday's rates. So I don't see how any consistent treatment can be given to a number that is sort-of unknown and the absorbtion rate is entirely unknown.

Interesting perspective, aboutready.

However, I would guess you'd agree that Wall Streeters are at least a tad less sanguine about their longer term bonuses which might suggest that at least that group has not been lining up to spend their reduced - but still nice - bonuses. Besides, quite a few of them would probably agree that the housing bear market has arrived in the Big Apple as well.

"Men, it has been well said, think in herds, it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."

Charles MacKay, 1841, in his book on asset bubbles

Topper, I think we agree and you might have not quite caught was I was saying? Or, even more possible, I wasn't clear?

I was saying that although this historically has been a very slow time:

due to bonuses this has been quite a busy time the last couple of years;
and so now this is even worse. I can't even quite get my head around it.

I thought that prices would have to go back to about 2000 levels, for so many reasons, and now 1996-98 wouldn't suprise me in the slightest.

11,013 right now! I was off by 11 days, not too bad.

I was WAY off (I guessed May) so good work. I also think my September bet for 12K is probably not going to win. Can I revise?

Any new bets? When do we get back to 10/11? Do we hit 12?