powerhouse LIC ANY THOUGHTS

bjw2103: about 4 weeks ago

lobo, in nyc10022's defense, I don't think he was saying Dumbo is in Manhattan, but was comparing outer borough neighborhoods. I'm pretty sure he actually lived there at one point, no? That said, he's very eager to declare that the market is already down 12% (which, as I've pointed out to him, is only from one report, whereas Streeteasy and Corcoran have quite different conclusions), so not really surprising he'd latch on to any piece of data that might support that conclusion. From what I'm seeing, we're not there yet. Let's not jump the gun.

LICComment: about 4 weeks ago

I gave several factors why someone would prefer LIC over FiDi, and price was just one. The point is that in addition to better pricing, there are non-price reasons that many people prefer LIC over FiDi. But that was a nice try to change the discussion from your false claim that FiDi apartments are similar in price to LIC condos.

lobo: about 5 weeks ago

Just to add, anyone who is claiming that DUMBO is in Manhattan is clearly not qualified to speak about the outer boroughs. Either way, back to the point of FiDi prices vs. LIC prices -- which, no, is not the reason that I would choose to live in one place over the other -- I just wanted to clear the air.

Instead of cherry picking apartments let's just look at the numbers on this very site. Below is median price and inventory for LIC and FiDi. You can't really argue the numbers. The median price is nearly double!

FiDi Median price per ft²: $1,314
Inventory: 717 listings

Median price per ft²: $729
Inventory:483 listings

lower inventory in LIC, lower price psf -- and, in my OPINION, a better place to live.

lobo: about 5 weeks ago

ummmm, first of all, DUMBO is not in Manhattan, it is in Brooklyn...
Second of all, get over the whole manhattan thing. It is a big place. When people used to pride themsleves for living in manhattan they would do so becasue they lived on 5th avenue ... now that the boundries of "Manhattan" have expanded (not literally), it is not what it used to be. hence, why people are willing to live in other places. I can live in morningside hieghts and still say that I live in Manhattan. Personally (and I know that there are others that agree) I would consider marginal areas outside of manhattan before I would consider many in Manhattan.

Sure, if I could live on 67th and 5th I would, but since I can't ... I would choose LIC over 80th and york (or first or second), I would choose it over FiDi, I would choose it over the far upper west side, I would choose it over hells kitchen, I would choose it over murray hill.

And not based on price, becasue I prefer it to those places.

Anyhow, the point is that you are entitled to your opinion, but don't state it as fact.

bjw2103: about 5 weeks ago

"BTW, if its more data you seek, also note that apartment 911 in 20 pine is now at $770 psf. There are definitely a few in the $800 and lower range... and thats just the one building I reviewed."

You're cherrypicking. The average ppsf in 20 Pine is much higher - $1286.

nyc10022: about 5 weeks ago

> And many people would prefer living in LIC rather than FiDi. You get more space for your money

I believe the logic here is flawed. We're talking about where prices will be, and really if LIC should be cheaper than FiDi, and if your logic is "LIC is more desirable because its cheaper" then haven't you just proved the point?

lobo, I think they're all marginal neighborhoods. But there is absolutely a difference between marginal manhattan and marginal outer boroughs... LIC is significantly cheaper than a DUMBO, for instance...

As I said, I think its all heading down, but I think neighborhoods sold as "better value than..." are probably in for a world of hurt as what they seek to replace will be brought down signficantly as well, and the replacement neighborhoods are much more likely to have the higher inventory.

BTW, if its more data you seek, also note that apartment 911 in 20 pine is now at $770 psf. There are definitely a few in the $800 and lower range... and thats just the one building I reviewed.

nyc10022: about 5 weeks ago

> And many people would prefer living in LIC rather than FiDi. You get more space for your money

As a response, that is sort of contradictory. We're talking about value and where prices will be, and if your logic is "LIC is more desirable because its cheaper" then, you are sort of proving the point. If it is supposed to be "cheaper" and the "more exensive" is now cheaper, then bargains become bigger bargains...

lobo, I think they're all marginal. But there is absolutely a difference between marginal manhattan and marginal outer boroughs... LIC is significantly cheaper than a DUMBO, for instance...

lobo: about 5 weeks ago

nyc10022, you are stating personal preference as fact. I have no issue with people that want to live in FiDi or 90th and york jsut to be able to claim that they live in Manhattan; however, Plenty of people see right past that and would prefer to live in an area that has better access to the places that they want to be near (in my opinion, LIC is a better location than FiDi or the "new" upper east side --- I laugh when people call 80/90s the upper east...most snobs, which are the people that you are relating to when you say that "LIC will always be in queens" would consider the 80s/90s Harlem and FiDi an extension of the battery park landfill where they go to work before they come home to their park avenue apratment after they are done) ... or Turtle Bay the place where the bridge and tunnel crouwd settle down so that they can claim that they live in manhattan ... whereas, most New Yorks look at them and still think that they live in marginal areas. Anyhow, i am not saying that I agree with those steryotypes, I am jsut saying that it's what you sound like. And for you to call LIC marginal, is jsut the same as me or anyone else calling all of those other places marginal.

So enjoy your ground floor apartment with shuttered retail by you in FiDi for 800psf and let the people who plan to live in LIC with all of their own pros in cons live in peace.

LICComment: about 5 weeks ago

Correction - the search for 1 bedrooms or more in FiDi has a median of $1300.

LICComment: about 5 weeks ago

nyc10022, your analysis is so bush league I'm not sure how to address it. From a streeteasy search, the median FiDi studio is over $1100 psf and the median for 1 bedroom apartments is over $1300. Please point out 5 apartments in FiDi comparable to apartments in LIC where the prices are similar, by psf or dollar amount. You know that your argument is stupid which is why you are trying to talk in circles now to support it.

And many people would prefer living in LIC rather than FiDi. You get more space for your money and you are much closer with much easier access to midtown in LIC. I'm not saying one is better than the other, but you will get a buyer demand in LIC that you won't get it FiDi and vice versa.

bjw2103: about 5 weeks ago

nyc10022, I'm pretty sure those psf are for resales, whereas we've been specifically talking new development here. Click on the new developments menu here and poke around for pricing there, and you'll see the difference. I don't know much about the LIC market, but I'm pretty sure resales there sell for significantly less on a ppsf basis. This is true in any neighborhood really, but the point is, you're not comparing apples to apples here. FiDi is still significantly more expensive than LIC.

nyc10022: about 5 weeks ago

btw, bjw, if it is more example you want, I did a fidi search on streeteasy, just started with apartments under $500k. The first 10 I found I calculated psfs, these were the 5 lowest...

$766
$580
$818
$818
$798

nyc10022: about 5 weeks ago

> If you think that is only worth $300 psf, I don't want real estate advice from you anytime soon.

Considering that Manhattan itself was "worth" that at one point, I'm not sure what the logic is here.

Things change, and now its not for the better. We can't compare to what used to be 6 months ago or 6 years ago or 60 years ago without some perspective.

Its *all* going down... question is how much...

> It's not stupid, but it is patently wrong.

No, its not wrong, and certainly not patently, unless that has a simialr meaning as "faux". You only need one apartment for it to be "can buy". Thats what I said... I didn't say "average" or "all". BTW, its more than one... there are a couple example on the last thread.

And lets not forget... those are just asking prices. The slide is only increasing...

> 800 psf is at the very lowest end of Manhattan. Also, let's realize that there are secondary areas
> in Manhattan too. I would consider FiDi one of those areas.

I don't disagree that there are secondary areas in Manhattan, but calling 800 psf at the "very lowest end" is not realistic... things get much cheaper up town.

I agree that FiDi is lower relatively speaking than other parts of Manhattan south of 96th, but its still Manhattan in a fairly "parallel" area, with almost everything positive you could say about LIC (waterfront, new construction, new neighborhood, transportation) plus the huge factor that its not, well, in Queens. So I think an appropriate comparison, but one that, unless QUeens becomes the new Manhattan, will always be more expensive in relative terms. And when their prices at the margins start converging, to me it shows a certain inefficiency is at hand, and we're in for some MAJOR price movements.

bjw2103: about 5 weeks ago

"You can buy for that level down there... that has been shown. Call it "stupid" all you want..."

It's not stupid, but it is patently wrong. 99 John, which might be one of the cheapest new developments in the area, is going for over $1k psf, and most buildings are well over that (W is over $2k). It's a disingenuous statement.

lobo: about 5 weeks ago

LICyuppie, I think that you misunderstood my comment. I was in no way implying that the LIC market (or any other market in this city for that matter) is "strong". What I said was that the buildings that have cut their prices to the 650 range are moving inventory. Yes, buildings that have starting prices in the high 700's to 900psf are not moving at all.

I don't think that anyone on this board is going to disagree that the market is less than optimal right now. I'm just saying that, in my opinion, you may wait forever if you are waiting for prices in the LIC waterfront area to come down to 300 - 400psf.

Lastly, yes, Wall Street has taken a hit but
a) This city is not soley supported by Wall Street, there are plenty of other industries and Fortune 500 comanies in this city (more than any other)
b) To say that we do not have any more money than main street right now is a bit silly. Per capita GDP in this country is $45,000 - that is not even a fraction of the base salary of most decent jobs in NY - the people in the market for a luxury apartment.

Waiting for the prices in LIC to come down to 300 is like saying that you will wait for the dow to come down to 3,000 before buying. If you hit it right, you'll make out big time ... impossible? no. likely? no.

LICComment: about 5 weeks ago

nyc1022, your point has not been "shown". Point to one new development building in FiDi with average prices anywhere near $800 psf. That is just silly.

LICyuppie, you can stick with whatever you want, but pulling a number out of thin air with no support or rationale behind it is meaningless.
Why does the LIRR station make the Hunters Point building horrible? The trains don't run at night or on the weekends, and having the station there means those views aren't going to be blocked by anything built across the street. That building has been reported to be over 50% sold.

LIC offers waterfront property with midtown views and 5 minute subway access to midtown Manhattan, and some really good dining and retail coming in all the time. If you think that is only worth $300 psf, I don't want real estate advice from you anytime soon.

LICyuppie: about 5 weeks ago

Lobo, one last thing. You said NYC has the money to make this place more expensive than the rest of the country. I think it would be fairer to say NYC had and may get the money back. My freinds in the industry which drives this town told me that they will not get a bonus this year. Normally, 10's to 100's of thousands. Their bonus will be if they have a job. Further, to a tea each one fears they will be fired soon. Right now, we do not have more money tham Main street.

LICyuppie: about 5 weeks ago

One can debate for as long as the want how much the end price will be (I've suggested and stick with 300-400) in LIC. Regardless at this point, I think it would be inaccurate to call it a strong market in LIC. The inventory is actually growing while the buyers are leaving. Have they sold any units at Hunter's point? That building is horribley situated and I do not think I would even pay 300psf foran apartment there. Unless, the LIRR somehow disappears and turns into a boat dock.

lobo: about 5 weeks ago

800 psf is at the very lowest end of Manhattan. Also, let's realize that there are secondary areas in Manhattan too. I would consider FiDi one of those areas. Frankly, my personal preference would be to live in LIC over FiDi. Let's be realistic, prime manhattan can go for up to $5,000 and $6,000psf. A new construction in turtle bay is well above the $1,500psf.

Second, $800psf is the top end of LIC, I would say that most places are in the low 700's high 600's - there is a lot of inventory and it is going to be a tough time for housing across the city but I stick to my statement that LIC and manhattan will move together. I just don't see manhattan going down to an average of 500psf ... I don't even see it coming down to 700psf ... therefore, i don't feel that you will see LIC in the 300 - 400 range. I would be shocked if it made it to 550psf. I beleive that there is still a relatively strong market for things priced around 650 in LIC.

nyc10022: about 5 weeks ago

> Also, 300 is 60% of 500, not 70%. Just saying

70% was your original tracking number. Have you amended that to 60%?

> but you keep making stupid statements that FiDi new construction is $800 psf

You can buy for that level down there... that has been shown. Call it "stupid" all you want...

> It went from basically zero inventory to a level of inventory that is creating a new neighborhood.
> You can't compare that to inventory being added to an already existing residential area.

I'm not. If anything, FiDi is later in the process than LIC of becoming a residential area. Citylights has been around for, what, 9 years? FiDi center as a residential neighborhood, thats a new thing...

washington459: about 5 weeks ago

tonymag5...have you joined the message board for current conract holders yet? we have about 28 confirmed people in contract. if anyone else reading this is a contract holder, please join:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/powerhouselic/

LICComment: about 5 weeks ago

nyc10022, why do you keep saying the same wrong things over and over again? You found one apartment in FiDi at $812psf, in a building that averaged almost $1300 psf for its apartments, but you keep making stupid statements that FiDi new construction is $800 psf. Also, LIC's inventory is all new. It went from basically zero inventory to a level of inventory that is creating a new neighborhood. You can't compare that to inventory being added to an already existing residential area.
Also, 300 is 60% of 500, not 70%. Just saying.

nyc10022: about 5 weeks ago

> Comparable Manhattan apartments would have to fall to $500 psf for these LIC prices to fall to $300.

I don't know if I agree with that.... assuming they'll hold at 70% of Manhattan might be wishful thinking. "Secondary" areas usually do worse than the primary areas in slumps. Plus, a LOT more inventory...

> Not this close to Manhattan. Maybe $650-$700. I do agree with you on ALL BEING OVERPRICED!

When you can already be *in* manhattan new construction for $800 psf (a whole lot of FiDi), I think this is just wishful thinking. I have to figure you'll see Manhattan hit those levels in spots like FiDi...

$300-400? Hmm, don't know. But I have to figure you'll definitely be seeing some sub $500 psf in the next 6 months...

> I know developers, and it costs them $200-$250 per sq. ft. to build an entire building with low to
> medium quality finishes. That's a FACT. Do you actually think they will sell units for only $100 per
> sq. ft. more than it cost to build it?

Answer us YES, YES, and MAYBE WORSE. I get that their costs might be a fact, but assuming that they will profit on all builds, NOT a fact. In slumps, developers take losses. Happens all the time.

In the late 80s slump my folks bought a brand new house for less than the land cost OR the building cost separately. As in they paid less than 50% of the developer's total costs.

Thats why they call them crashes.

lobo: about 5 weeks ago

yes, 300 - 400 is unrealistic. tonymag5, you are right and $250psf is actually only the starting price to build in NYC. LICyuppie, you are right, in comparison to the rest of the US, 300 - 400 may be high but you can't compare it that way, NY has always been much higher - NY has the money and the demand. The average price in manhattan in now over $1,100. LIC is still a bargain at $700psf compared to midtwon manhattan (that's not even prime manhattan). I'll be the first to agree that in manhattan prices fall to an average of $500psf that LIC will fall to $300 - $400 but I just don't see that happening.

If you look at the price cuts in LIC ... as soon as they hit under the $700psf mark they sell relatively quickly ... look at the badge building for example. They had 3 units on the market at almost $800psf ... they kept cuttinge price and 2 weeks after cutting to the below 700 mark all of the remaining units sold ... the building is now sold out.

I firmly beleive that just under 700 psf for new construction is moving and just over 700 is still attainable for developers (but not as easy). People who bought at $800psf (unless you ahve a great view and outdoor space) ... you may need to wait a while to break even.

tonymag5: about 5 weeks ago

It's not a biased opinion it's a realistic opinion. I wish the prices went down to $300-$400 per sq. ft. than I could buy more units as investments. Wishhouse, go to a new development and tell them you will pay only $350 per sq. ft. and watch them laugh at you. I know developers, and it costs them $200-$250 per sq. ft. to build an entire building with low to medium quality finishes. That's a FACT. Do you actually think they will sell units for only $100 per sq. ft. more than it cost to build it? They would rather rent the units or sit on them until the market rebounds a little. Trust me on this, like I said I am good friends with more than one developer in LIC.

LICyuppie: about 5 weeks ago

I love the area, but tony maga you have a biased opinion and a vested interest in maintaining higher prices. Wishhouse, first of all prices are ALREADY at 700-750 psf. You would be silly to negotiate at the asking price. I stand by my prediction that it will drop as far as 300-400 psf. We have not see the bottom in NYC by a far stretch. By the way 300-400 psf is still not cheap. I think that average in the U.S. now is like 100-125 psf. Can anyone verify that?

tonymag5: about 5 weeks ago

LICComment I agree 100% with you on that. No way prices drop that far.
Wishhouse, you have a good chance now to negotiate not only the sale price of an apartment but also closing costs if buying a new development. I couldn't give you an exact number on how much. I guess it all depends on how inflated the price is, and they are inflated also how desperate the person is to sell. If I had to do it all over again I would begin my negotiation at about $700-750 per sq. ft.

LICComment: about 5 weeks ago

Comparable Manhattan apartments would have to fall to $500 psf for these LIC prices to fall to $300. Not likely.

wishhouse: about 5 weeks ago

Tony and LIC peeps, I'm curious about what kind of discounts one could get now on units in LIC these days. I know this sounds like a facetious, but it's not. I'm just curious. Obviously you all are in it for the long term, which is key, but right now, if someone were interested in purchasing there (for the long term), how much less do you think the would have to pay?

tonymag5: about 5 weeks ago

Prices will NEVER come down to $300-$400 per square foot....I hope. Not this close to Manhattan. Maybe $650-$700. I do agree with you on ALL BEING OVERPRICED! I also agree with you that no one should buy now unless they feel that there is a deal to be had. I bought a year ago and absolutely knew that I overpaid. However I also know that LIC is where I will stay for at least the next 10 years, I have the money and I have a unique unit with a very large private outdoor terrace.
The View told me that if they have to rent the units not sold they will lease the units on a 1 year basis. After the year try and sell it again. If it doesn't sell rent it again for a year. What that does to the units bought is devalue them substantially.

LICyuppie: about 5 weeks ago

There are a lot of nice buildings in LIC. In fact, I have looked at most of them. At this point, they are all overpriced and no one in their right mind should buy for the next six monthes. I am sorry for those people who bought already and do not plan on staying for the next ten to fifteen years to see the fruits of their early meandering into the fringe of the bubble. Now, it will take one more cycle of the bubble expanding before this area will be considered inside rather than on the fringe. During the time period, prices will come down to 300-400 psf at best. The View is insanely overpriced and I am curious when they will drop or convert all to rentals. I know, their backers have tons of cash so can sit on the property, but for ten years?

tonymag5: about 5 weeks ago

Sorry I said in my previous post that They are talking about putting up another building directly SOUTH of the powerhouse. I meant NORTH.

tonymag5: about 5 weeks ago

It's no surprise that The Powerhouse hit a wall. No condo's or Coops are moving right now. They were lucky they started selling units when they did because any later that 38% would of been a lot less. However they meet the requirements to close all 67 when they receive the C of O. The View is going to have even a harder time selling units. One, They started selling right at the beginning of this mess. Two, NO ONE is buying now and three, they are priced ridiculously high. Over $1100 per square foot. I saw an 1153 sq. ft 2 bedroom 2 bath unit on the 17th flr in the View last week and they were asking $1,370,000. with an $1112 common charge. Remember there is no amenities in the building.
My take on the slow sales at the Powerhouse also is that all of the NORTH facing units are going to be Courtyard view units. They are talking about putting up another building directly South of the Powerhouse. Those units are priced considerably lower but will have no view at all. I am hoping that the sluggish market will force the developer NOT to build another building on that land. That will maintain what view those units do have and hopefully make them more desirable. If you know anything about the building a good chunk of the 67 units in contract are all facing West, South and East. I researched that fact. Just so you could compare price, I bought an 1140 sq. ft. 2 bedroom 2 bath South facing unit on the 8th floor and have a 550 sq. ft. private terrace. I paid 1.1 million and my CC + Tax is $1077 per month. Thats $975 per sq ft. including the huge and rare terrace. I am sure they are more willing to negotiate now than they were when I bought.

nyc10022: about 5 weeks ago

View 9% sold, and powerhouse 38% sold after like a year?

Ruh row.

Is this par for the course with the new construction? Or are these just slow sellers?

tonymag5: about 5 weeks ago

The View has about 165 units the salesman told me and only 15 were in contract. The residents lounge at the powerhouse should turn out great but i know what you mean about it being next to the gym. That however is an artists rendering and could turn out differently. The entire building looks great, It exceeded my expectations since I bought only from a floor plan.

nyc10022: about 5 weeks ago

LIC, how many units does the View have? Just curious about the sales %%s

LICComment: about 5 weeks ago

I thought the resident's lounge in Powerhouse looked great, but I didn't like that it is right next to the gym with only a clear glass wall separating the exercise machines from the lounge.

tonymag5: about 5 weeks ago

To answer your question now 1225. Last time I was in the building the amenities were under construction. The Spa, which I think is a waste was taking shape. The gym and common areas were also being worked on. I do believe from having experience in construction that the units will be completed before some of the amenities. If in fact that is the case and I cannot use the gym or other amenities I am working with the lawyers about getting a reduction on my common charges until they are complete. That is not an unreasonable request.

TheFed: about 5 weeks ago

The fact that it is a Karl Fisher job would lead me to avoid it entirely. Oh yeah and it's in LIC too!

nyc10022: about 5 weeks ago

> Anyway, Im not getting into a financial verbal argument with all the finance experts
> on "Streeteasy", that's ridiculous.

Ironic given that you are about to fashion yourself as the expert...

> But it is factual that if you buy real estate and intend on staying in it for the long term you will
> make money.

No, it is not factual, it is the exact opposite. The long term return on RE after inflation is essentially 0, per Shiller's data.

> I see that every post regarding the building are from people who really have no idea about the facts.

Kettle black... kettle black...