Housing crisis is over

stevejhx: about 7 weeks ago

"the common rules don't apply"

Ha-ha-ha. Proven wrong every time for 500 years.

The common rules ALWAYS APPLY.

sfo: about 7 weeks ago

thanks stakan for your insight and im sure i will talk to you again..

stakan: about 7 weeks ago

sfo - Manhattan and SF are so unlike the rest of the country that I truly believe the common rules don't apply. People chose them for the unique reasons that cannot work anywhere else. I hope to keep talking to you on thos board despite those antisocial types.

sfo: about 7 weeks ago

people, this is exactly what i was talking about., for no reason you get attacked called names and i hope we can stop this get of behavior by not encourging and just ignoring it....

stakan...i think you are right, the one thing i have noticed since i still keep tabs on the real estate market out thier while the east bay market is starting to soften san francisco is still going very strong, we had friends over last week that just closed on a house in the marina, and htye had a bidding war, and to me the marina being the first place gone in an earth quake just surprised me.

stakan: about 7 weeks ago

fo - as you see, discussion is over for now for obvious reasons.
Personally, I don't think Manhattan is comparable to SF( I lived there too): the size and difference in neighborhoods alone will make them too different.

stevejhx: about 7 weeks ago

Wow, I'm gone for a few hours, & look @ what you people write!

Juiceman: "sign of admiration"

Tee-hee-hee.

westelle: "It almost feels like they're waiting for this artificial panic to pass."

Artificial panic? You mean like Citigroup winding down (b/c no one will buy them) $400 billion in assets. No more BSC? Lehman cutting, Merrill Lynch cutting 15% of their workforce, Countrywide gone, innumerable nonbank lenders gone, is ARTIFICIAL!

Ha-ha-ha. Apparently, you are Russian, because you seem to know nothing about markets.

ccdevi: "no one thinks steve and his crew are going to affect the market, they're just annoying."

I have no plans to affect the market - unnecessary, and impossible for one man on a thread very few people read. Apparently, however, you must think you can affect the market.

LOL.

sfo: "fisherman's warf." Is this Star Trek: The Next Generation, and I missed it?

You people are UNREAL!

sfo: about 7 weeks ago

does anyone think it's fair to compare the realestate market of manhattan to san francisco ? in terms of demand versus supply ?

sfo: about 7 weeks ago

fidi...i like the seaport area, it reminded me of fisherman's warf some what, has great school and see the potential in a few years. we dont care that there isnt a billion resturants around, infact i like the quitness on weekend and evenings.

we had made an offer back in july to 90 william but wanted them to take care of the transfer tax, they refused, so we decided to hold off, to us we just dont like stupid business discussion, if they would have taken the 10 % at that point nearly a year ago, they woudl have made that money in interst from the down payment.

stakan: about 7 weeks ago

sfo - where were you looking in Manhattan?

dmag2020: about 7 weeks ago

An just to draw another parallel to the equity market, Manhattan can be viewed as the "Blue Chip" of the Real Estate Market. Investors make arguments going into corrective periods regarding the decoupling of our economy with the rest of the worlds, and the fact that a big stable company with revenue flow from around the globe with low pe's (read: less speculative) are more stable, and those companies do weather the storm far into a correction, until they don't, and they all get hit hard. And that's the day most people call up their brokers and tell them to sell. Well, Manhattan may not be speculative, but it certainly isn't trading at a low PE, in fact it is trading at the highest PE in the country, and it hasn't been hit yet. What's that you say? People live in their homes? They do, until they move out of them. Until they can't afford it anymore. Or until they feel like they've got enough to live on for a while until the economy comes back. Things can turn on a dime, especially in Real Estate. I could be wrong but I think the big misconception is that because it is less liquid, it is less volatile. I think it is more volatile for the very same reason. But only time will tell.

tenemental: about 7 weeks ago

"There is total obnoxiousness on both sides of the fence, by the way."

Indeed. Not too long ago, if I had something bearish to post, no matter how well-founded, I'd have to take a deep breath before hitting Reply, knowing what the response would be.

dmag2020: about 7 weeks ago

Ok - Not to be another one of those people trying to prove you wrong, but whenever any market comes down, most people are too afraid to buy. Case in point would be the day JPMorgan announced the Bear takeover at $2, what was it - a month ago? You could have bought any financial stock at half the price it was a year ago, or a 25% discount to today's price. That means you could have made 50% on your money in a month. Was anybody buying that day? No. Because it is human nature to be scared when the markets are down. We buy when markets are up. Does that mean that we are doing the right thing? Obviously, no. We LIKE to sell low and buy high. We are nuts. Now don't take this personally, because EVERYONE does this, including YOU. You are in the majority. Yes, the market is holding up, which is why people have the courage to come on here and talk about where to get a mortgage, what grill to get for their balcony, etc. The hard thing, believe it or not, is to get on here when everything looks fine and say "sell". or "Don't buy." No one is trying to "move the markets" as some people seem to suggest. It seems to me like just some good solid advice. The entire world's real estate markets are in turmoil, maybe this one will be next? I mean, if these guys shout at the top of their lungs what most people disagree with (as evidenced by the current stability of the market), good for them, they are bold and they may be onto something. I agree, the snottiness and the name calling should end, but then again they are provoked by the likes of houser/spunky and westelle. There is total obnoxiousness on both sides of the fence, by the way.

sfo: about 7 weeks ago

dmag2020, i agree with ccdevi that its not the message but how its communicated and how if anyone offers a different opnion, hells breaks loose..

i once offered my own personnel experince in the bay area when the dotcom bust happened where everyone was waiting for prices to hit rock bottom in san francisco it never did, and how i learned that when the market is going down or stablising people wait but when it goes up people start chasing the market and all hte crazy bidding start. i got a response going on and on basically for the sake to prove me wrong, nohting else..

i dont think people who are really intersted in buying will get affected by streeteasy board, but its great to be armmed with unbaised knoweldge and facts when making this discussion, specailly for someone like me that hasnt been in NY for too long.
however the over reaction of some makes itdiffcult and some might get discourged to share opnions or experince.

ccdevi: about 7 weeks ago

the answer to that one is even simpler, no one thinks steve and his crew are going to affect the market, they're just annoying. people like this board and some things have happened as described by sfo above

ccdevi: about 7 weeks ago

the answer to that dmag is simple, its not the message, its the way they communicate it.

dmag2020: about 7 weeks ago

or, rather, by encouraging people to rent at half the cost. And what are you afraid of anyway, if its is such a strong market, so unique, you think the few people that log onto streeteasy, read the message boards and decide to rent are going to affect the market? And even if they did, and the market goes down 10 or 20%, what do you care, you are probably a long term buyer. You aren't selling anytime soon, and hey, its New York, it'll come back some day. Right? Or are you worried about something?

dmag2020: about 7 weeks ago

Hey sfo, without defending anyone's argument here, because I don't think the Bear side ones are strong enough (although I am very bearish), what IF these guys were right? What if anyone who does buy now ends up, to use your gross exaggeration, starving? We know it won't come to that, but what if net worths are destroyed as a Manhattan RE Market crashes amongst heavy unemployment, where owners are forced to walk away from their apartments because they can't afford the mortgage and they can't sell for more than the note on the place, how can steve and dco be faulted for trying their hardest to prevent the disaster by renting at half the cost?

westelle: about 7 weeks ago

sfo - you're right. I observe no urgency on the sellers' side. It almost feels like they're waiting for this artificial panic to pass. I put my place on the market 9 days ago to see what happens, and got 2 full asking price offers. The real estate in Manhattan is much less speculative than in other places, and the prices are not going to drop 50% just because of some evil wishing of these posters. Less speculation = more stability.

dco: about 7 weeks ago

LiCComent- I dont know who started war of the words first. I have never said that anybody's purchase was stupid. I have said that I would advise on not buying now because of obvious reason. I think that people can save a lot of money in the future by waiting. That's a big difference from saying your stupid for buying. Truly I'm confused. One one hand you say that I'm just full of hot air and the other you seem very concerned about my opinions and there effect on people. I thought no one listened to my opinions or predictions.

dco: about 7 weeks ago

sfo- point taken.

sfo: about 7 weeks ago

that's not what i am saying, but i dont think it's acceaptable for a discussion turns into:

'I said, "I'm glad you research what I do and take it entirely out of context. That quote was for a single apartment whose price had been lowered to the 2006 price. We're in 2008, I said 2004, the price was 2006. Ergo, halfway, on one apartment. Moron."

That's right - read the context: 2006 is halfway between 2004 and 2008.

Moron.'

the fact people start calling each other names is beyond my comprehension..

i come to this board to get educated, not to hear someone crusead to get everyone in manhtaan to rent versus buying..

i dont want anyone to lie but how many times one person will ask a simple question whether about a mortgage or certian area to buy and some how it turns into if you buy u and your family will starve and little annie will be searching for food stamps to have dinner.. and renting makes much more sense and we get half a page on why..

that's what im talking about...

LICComment: about 7 weeks ago

You can say something negative if you have some data or rationale that is intelligent and unbiased to support it. dco never does. When you tell people that you just have an opinion that their homes are worth half of what they actually are valued at, you are practically insulting people.

dco: about 7 weeks ago

Solet me get this right you want only positive comments about the markets and NYC real estate. I'm sorry I refuse to lie.

"i know people will not use the discussion board here and have turned away from street easy because his baised negativity..i just wish he would get a real job and stop bothering us on these boards...

sfo: about 7 weeks ago

on another note..we made an offer on two apts yesterday to combine, and one of the apts we gave an offer $44,000 less than what they wanted. the sponsor wouldnt even hear of it and talk to us, didnt even come back with a counter offer..i couldnt beleive that they would lose the sale of two apts because of what would be less than 3 % of the over all cost.

developers whether in new construction or covnersion regardless whether the crisis is over, nearly over or no where in sight will not negogiate and can afford to wait until things either improve or stablize.

sfo: about 7 weeks ago

westelle, you are so right, i had thought this website is all about information and smart debate, it ends up people beckering and then calling each other names. there is one person..who shall remain namless.... would make this site more informative and fun with real debate if he stays away, infact i know people will not use the discussion board here and have turned away from street easy because his baised negativity..i just wish he would get a real job and stop bothering us on these boards...

as my three year old would say..super yuck

LICComment: about 7 weeks ago

If you actually read my comment dco, you would see substantive commentary. I am still waiting for you to say anything substantial and accurate in your comments to back up your "predictions."

dco: about 7 weeks ago

LICComment- Tell it to your friends who are getting laid off by the day that everything is going to rebound overnight. At least I'm willing to set time line. You just predict a recovery sometime in the future. Well that's helpful. The credit problem is not getting better anytime soon. Yes jobs will come back but when 3,6,9,12,18 months or 2 years. Perhaps these banks will realize that they never need all this dead weight to begin with. The truth is at least I'm will to stick my neck out with a prediction that can be measured you LIC just say everything is A OK and we will be better sometime in the future, when ever that is. Why don't you just give it a rest and try to bring something to the discussion instead of saying that other people's comments are not worthy of your reading.

LICComment: about 7 weeks ago

If dco actually offered reasonable opinions based on rational complete market analysis, I could take him seriously, but all he does is give nonsensical comments based on innuendo and misinformation. Take it from someone in investment banking, the market indicators show that we are in the final stages of the subprime downturn. Most banks in the US have written their subprime assets down. They are still in the delevering process, which could play out for up to a year (if not sooner) before the banks get comfortable increasing risk levels. There is a tremendous level of assets on the sidelines now waiting for credit markets to stabilize. Once this happens, we will see a growth trend in real estate markets again, albeit at a much more moderate pace than the last growth spurt. We will also see the financial services companies and banks increase staff again. In NYC, supply and demand trends and the weak US dollar have kept prices from dropping sharply and should continue to keep the real estate market stable in the short-term. Of course, you can not consider any of the above and just listen to dco pull numbers out of thin air for his "opinions" and "predictions."

JuiceMan: about 7 weeks ago

steve, is the fact that you argue with me even when I'm not posting a sign of admiration?

stevejhx: about 7 weeks ago

Really, joepa?

The original post was, "We're not Miami 2007."

I said, "Just you wait and see. Check out the inventory figures, and Wall Street bonuses, and resetting ARM's, and new inventory coming online. We're only at the beginning."

You said, "I vaguely remember you saying a few weeks ago that we were half-way there. Now we're only at the beginning. Is this like the game Sorry - did someone bump us back?"

I said, "joepa, you're confusing me with someone else - never did I say that we were halfway there in the housing market. Ever. Not even close. Watch the inventory numbers rise to over 10k by August."

You said, "Steve - Wasn't that tough to find after all: "I guess if you were a Wall Street hotshot Master of the Universe & just lost your job, you gotta bail fast and head for Charlotte. I said 2004 prices. We're already halfway there!"

I said, "I'm glad you research what I do and take it entirely out of context. That quote was for a single apartment whose price had been lowered to the 2006 price. We're in 2008, I said 2004, the price was 2006. Ergo, halfway, on one apartment. Moron."

That's right - read the context: 2006 is halfway between 2004 and 2008.

Moron.

joepa: about 7 weeks ago

I didn't take the original quote seriously. Heaven knows I didn't think that Steve actually thought the market had corrected itself in any way. I just noted that he made the comment, which he denied and then (like a 2-bit politician caught with a stained dress) tried to disclaim. I am now treating myself to a pair of tube socks.

westelle: about 7 weeks ago

steve - I said you are not a communist. Read the post.
People, it's getting to be retarded. What's the point of this? Thre's no more information, no fun, no educated guesses. Yuk.

stevejhx: about 7 weeks ago

уже Вам, кажется, ответил на другом форуме, что все может помочь, особенно перспектива учебы - сильный аргумент.

westelle, calling somebody a Communist is so the 1950's.

westelle: about 7 weeks ago

stevejhx - so you don't even know what language I typed in! Another faux-pas of yours, you fraud. That was by no means any one you know.

stevejhx: about 7 weeks ago

And Joepa, if you read the entire thread you will see that the comment refers to 2006 being halfway between 2008 and 2004. No other reading is possible.

It's people like you and houser and juiceman and now westelle - who's coming across as slightly imbalanced with the Communist comment - who can't use facts or come up with a single reason why the highly overpriced Manhattan real-estate market is going to stay that way - because there isn't a reason. Before it was propped up because of Wall Street, but now that Wall Street is in triage it's not going to matter because everything's been written off so there's no way to go but up.

Yup. Makes sense to me. All those lost, highly-paid jobs aren't going to matter, nor are tightened credit and mortgage underwriting standards. That, and I'm a kitchen-variety Communist who voted for Bloomberg.

Yup.

stevejhx: about 7 weeks ago

y es, "coño" - ¡disculpen!

stevejhx: about 7 weeks ago

westelle, ¿qué cono estás hablando con esa mierda de letra del demonio? ¡Hueles a azufre!

lowery: about 7 weeks ago

oooo, a typo. In English it should be "has not gone down everywhere."

lowery: about 7 weeks ago

Doesn't anyone think that the credit crisis was a collective moment of panic for holders of CMOs and their derivatives whose panic assumed that 100% of the mortgages in America would default? Or, say, a mere 85% of all mortgages would go to foreclosure? I do. And therefore, even though resets for subprimes and resets for not-subprimes may have only just begun and the defaults of some of them has long ago been priced into the collapsed value of the CMOs and derivatives because as bad as it gets across the US is not as bad as the assumption built into that collective moment of panic. Wall Street may have a terrific 2009 on the credit side. They've written all their junk down to zero, when it's really only worth somewhere between the pre-panic fantasy and the post-panic zero.

Real estate prices have not gone down everything in the USA, by the way. But I agree it's overpriced in New York City.

West81st: about 7 weeks ago

Come on, guys. Look at Stevejhx's remark in context. If you're familiar with his sophomoric style, it's pretty clear he was joking about the whole market being "halfway there" when discussing one apartment.

That said, I'm impresseed by joepa's memory and detective work.