Markets set for biggest losses

LICComment: about 4 months ago

I saw that 5SL, Powerhouse and Foundry in LIC all just posted a bunch of very recent sales at pretty good prices - $700-$850psf range. Maybe the sky isn't falling dco . . .

nyfineman: about 5 months ago

KISS- I think you are misunderstanding my optimism. What I am saying is that I am long term bullish on the market. NYC is resilient and improving. We are safer, cleaner, and more international than ever. Demographically, more and more families are staying in the city (a baby boom of sorts), and considering transportation, culture, and medical facilities, if you can afford it, NYC is a great place to retire. There were clearly periods over my lifetime (40+ years) when you would have had to wait years to be "up" on your property investment in the city. However, the long term returns have been quite impressive. Today's climate is no doubt challenging. If you are in the market today you have to look for value and hire a broker who knows the market, knows the developers, knows the community, and has long term solid relationships. You have to have someone who is knowledgable on your side, who knows how to negotiate. You have to have someone who knows the ins and outs. The person who can get someone in the door at phase 1, before the development is marketed and amended. Someone who knows exactly what the breaking point is for the party you are negotiating with, without alienating the other party. I can go on and on, but it comes down to hiring someone with true savy who you trust.
The key to marketing your property in a softening market is to set a realistic price that is in tune with the market. I've turned down many owners of late who clearly thought that their property was worth 10%-15% higher than true market value and insisted that they are right. I will not take that client. So many agents/brokers will tell the potential client what they want to hear, jerk them around for a few months, waste both persons time, then break the news that they have to lower the price. That irks me and it is completely counter to my ethics. I'd rather lose the listing than sacrifice my integrity.
----Sorry for all the run on sentences---Had a full day. Until tomorrow.

JuiceMan: about 5 months ago

Fair point verain, but it was good enough to stir the pot.

KISS: about 5 months ago

Fineman,

Just saw a blog from a fellow realtor of yours at truegotham and the current post on how to market your property in a softening market. The first recommendation is to not hire an optimistic agent:

1. Hire a "genuine" real estate professional with experience and knowledge: By genuine I don't mean properly licensed (that's obvious). I am talking about someone whom a buyer will trust and believe. Don't hire a "buy now, real estate prices always go up" kind of agent. Remember that the prospective purchaser is forming an opinion of your property through the representation by your agent. Don't let an agent make a bad first impression. It's an uphill battle if a buyer doesn't believe what your agent is "selling."

Would be interested in your views as you are a self admitted optimist and a real estata professional yourself.

VVerain: about 5 months ago

Juice, come on, using CNN as a reliable source for information on the direction of a market?

nyfineman: about 5 months ago

Thanks Tenemental, I'll settle with the revised version.
Yes, I am an optimist, I'll confess, but I believe I have plenty of reason. NYC is and has always been a great long term investment. It's hard for anyone to claim to have a crystal ball or time the market. The long term trend is your friend. I'll readily admit that there are many challenges lately. We were coasting along, oblivious of the national market, aided by foreign investment (cheap dollar) and relatively low rates. There is no doubt that our market made a decisive shift in March when the fed had to bail out Bear Stearns. This event was a serious confidence shaker. Despite Wall Street's quick resilience and ability to shake it off, the real estate market hasn't- at least yet. The foreign money that has floated our market for the past couple of years is scared and there is a crisis of confidence. The real question is, how long will it last? If the credit markets continue to settle and the spread on mortgage rates come into line with historical norms (about a point lower than current), and the foreign money gets flowing again, we have a fighting chance to come out of this dip without much damage. Plenty of "ifs", but many of them are likely at this point.
In regards to my blog, I am glad you find at least some part of it amusing- which is better than no part! Excuse the positive spin. I feel there is plenty, too much, negativity in the media. Generally speaking, if there is a building I don't like, I won't write about it.
As for the UES article, I have to say that I was impressed by how well these large projects have sold, and when reviewing the numbers, I was suprised at both the percentage sold and increase in average $/psf. Of all the buildings I surveyed up there, only one (on 79th-you know the one) had lower $/psf numbers.
Peace!

tenemental: about 5 months ago

Shit, Fine, that was a classy response. I'll re-submit as "hard-selling excessively optimistic broker."

tenemental: about 5 months ago

Only your posts. I did think the one about the auto-clean toilet was funny.

nyfineman: about 5 months ago

Shit, "hard shilling hack broker"? You must not know me.

tenemental: about 5 months ago

He has positive sales figures on three buildings out of how many? I've been hearing about two of them for ages and I don't even follow the UES. Look, I don't want to get into a bears vs. bulls battle, maybe things are OK up there, but Andrew Fine is the kind of hard-shilling hack broker that inspires people to start bearish threads. Other than a few decent "roving reporter" entries, his posts on Curbed are totally groan-inducing.

LICComment: about 5 months ago

This seems to fly in the face of the doomsayers: http://afinecompany.blogspot.com/2008/05/upper-east-side-condos-may-2008.html

Lots of sales at rising prices in the UES.

lowery: about 5 months ago

I guess I was looking at it as a single person, kiss, you're right. I wouldn't ignore it out of hand, though. We don't know where commuting costs are heading. I should think those arguing the center of the city is invincible might through the low commuting cost into the equation.

KISS: about 5 months ago

Oh please. Commuting costs are nothing compared to the cost of private school. Most people considering burbs vs the city are looking at school options, such as higher prop taxes/strong public schools vs lower prop taxes/NYC income tax/private school. Anyone making cost considerations on just commuting costs doesn't have school age kids.

lowery: about 5 months ago

as long as scarey trends are being discussed, I wonder if people weigh in on commuting costs -- bike sales and spiking mass transit usage are in the news -- can't do the 'burbs without two cars, so the "Manhattan Is Special" argument would seem to have a merit that isn't even being discussed -- likewise all boros accessible to subways

tenemental: about 5 months ago

re: inventory:

The upward trend and level were firmly in place before last week's bump on StreetEasy. Take a look at the following Miller Samuel chart. At the pre-bump 7k level, current inventory was higher than any time this decade except for the middle half of 06. Also, look at how inventory went up and down throughout the course of most years.

http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1204831603HmXFR&Record=3

The following is UrbanDigs's/Miller Samuel's recent (but pre-bump) chart of inventory, showing that it's been straight up since Aug 07, with the exception of December, when many listings get pulled in anticipation of a January re-release.

http://www.urbandigs.com/2008/05/inventory_rises_above_7000_new.html#comments

Now, I'm not sure how the recent bump relates to Miller Samuel's system in previous years, but we are currently just about equal to the highest inventory level this decade (June 06), and we're in what's supposed to be the busiest selling season with transactions way down. We also have massive new development inventory throughout the outer boroughs, offering potential Manhattan buyers that are willing to consider a more affordable alternative myriad options.

LICComment: about 5 months ago

iMom - can we try to keep this discussion at a high level, because your last comment really devolved.
Yes, forecasts do not guarantee an outcome. However, I was responding to posters like yourself that seemed to mock the outrageous idea that oil prices could fall significantly. By showing that 53 leading economists currently have this view, I was showing that this forecast is not so preposterous.
Yes, if you read my comment, I fully explain my views on how a weak dollar is a mitigating factor in NY real estate. I never said that a strong dollar would be good for NY real estate, so please stop misconstruing my statements. I said that many factors affect real estate, and if the dollar is strengthtning, it would be likely that other factors that would benefit real estate would come into play.
I did not say anywhere that rising interest rates would directly benefit real estate prices. This is more misinformation on your part. I said that the Fed would likely raise short-term rates as the economy improves and works its way through subprime issues, which would help to strengthen the dollar. Again, please stop misconstruing my statements.
I never said inventory wasn't rising. If you read my comment, you would see that I acknowledge that inventories have risen. I said that inventories had been uncommonly exceedingly low and I am not surprised if inventories rise to more common historical levels. I also pointed out one of your many mistakes concerning your focusing on the rise in inventories without pointing out that much of the recent rise had to do with streeteasy's technology.
Yes, I stated that I believe current layoffs may not be as detrimental or as deep as in the past. Compare the number of Wall Street job losses this time around to the late 1980s or the internet bubble. Many of the current job losses are in the mortgage and real estate credit areas, which are not as New York centric as other areas. The internet bubble resulted in approximately 90,000 job losses. As I said before, times aren't good, but if market conditions do stabilize and improve, it will not hit the real estate market terribly. Sorry I don't believe that Wall Street will collapse and take real estate down with it like you do.
Happy Mother's Day!

iMom: about 5 months ago

LICComment: Even before the recent one-time UPWARD adjustment to inventory, there was a clear and measurable upward trend in NYC inventory:

From urbandigs.com on May 3rd, even before the UPWARD revision on May 8th:
“As most of you probably know by monitoring the Streeteasy.com powered Manhattan inventory widget on UrbanDigs.com, total inventory in Manhattan seemed to rise above 7,000. The trend is clearly rising, and the reason is clearly sluggish demand. As buyer confidence started to decline late in 2007 as a result of the credit crisis and lagging effect on the equity markets, we started to see a consistent rise in inventory trends.”

Furthermore, the recent spike upwards only strengthened my point. The adjustment was UPWARD, meaning that even MORE apartments are on sale than originally thought.

Regarding oil, you cite a poll of a forecast for oil prices in the future. Since when does a poll guarantee that that outcome will be for certain? Much less a forecast of something as volatile as oil and as far out as one year? Again, I ask you: If you’re so sure the price of oil will be $80 (like you said in an earlier post), why don’t you have a short-position on in oil-futures so you can make a fortune on your view? The truth of the matter is that oil might be higher or lower in one year’s time, but no one knows for sure, not even the great and mighty investment bankers who walk among us. You may have a view of where oil-prices might go in one year, but that view is by no means a certainty so don’t treat it as gospel.

Stakan: You’re calling me someone who “manipulate(s) the obvious to fit their shameful agenda”? Look at LICComment, who says:
Weak-Dollar -> Good for Real Estate
Strong-Dollar -> Good for Real Estate
Low Interest Rates -> Good for Real Estate
Rising Interest Rates -> Good for Real Estate
Rising Inventory by all accounts -> What rising inventory?
Thousands of laid-off Wall Streeters and $billions in write-offs -> Bonuses will still be fine
Stakan, I suggest you rethink who is really being manipulative.

JuiceMan: The listings you provided only show that APPROPRIATELY priced properties are selling at a reasonable pace. My point is different: If a property sits on the market for hundreds of days, months or even years without selling, it’s only fair to assume that that property is not properly priced and needs to be adjusted. The listings you provided are examples of properties that were properly priced, probably because they came onto the market relatively recently (less than 40-days, by your own admission). The examples I showed were of listings that came on the market in 2006 and 2007 that still have not sold - over 700 and 300 days on the market without any price adjustments.

stakan: about 5 months ago

Anybody saw westelle today? SHe's hot!
Steve, you've missed the boat AGAIN. Face it like a man and imom should, too.

stevejhx: about 5 months ago

What? I need help? You're comparing sales data to listing data. Completely unrelated.

lupus1: about 5 months ago

LICCommen, does everything you think come from the wsj? great backup to your arguments above, highbridge(their stat arb fund specifally - good pick ) and gs, let me pick two quant funds. yes i stay on top of current market activities but fortunately dont let others formulate my views.

JuiceMan: about 5 months ago

LICC, steve only cares about median when it fits his "story".

"What is in the article is that median property prices rose again - meaning, ominously, that only the top-end is moving. Not good news for those of us who work for a living."

Weren't you the one who berated people for not knowing the difference between mean and median?

LICComment: about 5 months ago

Steve - you need some help with reading comprehension. If the top end price changes were 10 to 1 down, and the average AND median prices were up, that implies that the overall market outside of the top end was up.
What is this with you and inventories? First, we established above that some of the inventory number is inflated due to technology changes at streeteasy. Second, inventory levels are still not as high as they were in 2006 and are not at a level that is causing any big price decreases. Could that change? Maybe, but you haven't shown me anything substantial to base a prediction on yet.

stevejhx: about 5 months ago

"You forgot to include the rest of the article steve. 17% on the median means? oh yeah...lagging indicator....."

No I didn't: "What is in the article is that median property prices rose again - meaning, ominously, that only the top-end is moving. Not good news for those of us who work for a living."

If that weren't true, then inventories wouldn't have risen so precipitously over the past 4 months.

stakan: about 5 months ago

LILComment - stevie and imom are the examples of the persons who manipulate the obvious to fit their shameful agenda. They should not be engaged in anything meaningful and transparent.

JuiceMan: about 5 months ago

You forgot to include the rest of the article steve. 17% on the median means? oh yeah...lagging indicator.....

“Buyers are out there expecting to get good deals,” said Gregory J. Heym, the chief economist at Brown Harris Stevens and Halstead Property. “Some people who want to sell are more open to it.”

That isn’t evident from actual sales data from deeds and tax records filed with the city’s Finance Department. Preliminary data showed that prices rose last month, with the average sale price on a co-op or condo reaching $1.45 million, up 17 percent from a year earlier. The median price was $927,500, also up 17 percent.

stevejhx: about 5 months ago

Did you read the article?

"Among the most expensive properties — those listed for $10 million or more — there were fewer price changes, but price cuts outnumbered price increases by a ratio of 10 to 1."

Don't know where you got that figure, 'cause it ain't even in the article.

What is in the article is that median property prices rose again - meaning, ominously, that only the top-end is moving. Not good news for those of us who work for a living.

LICComment: about 5 months ago

Steve, you've got to be kidding with this. According to the article, nearly all of the units cut were in the $10 million and up price range, and average and median prices rose last month. So a $15.4 million unit decreased its price and sold for $14.9 million, while the $1 million units are going up in price. This is your evidence of a big market downturn? You can't be serious.

stevejhx: about 5 months ago

JuiceMan:

In the last 30 days, prices were cut on about 17 percent of the co-ops and condos in Manhattan, according to an analysis of listings on Streeteasy.com, a Web site that compiles information from most brokerage firms. Prices rose on around 2 percent of all Streeteasy listings. Among the most expensive properties — those listed for $10 million or more — there were fewer price changes, but price cuts outnumbered price increases by a ratio of 10 to 1.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/11/realestate/11deal1.html?ref=realestate

Still waiting for you to do the Fed's imputed rent = market rent analysis.

stevejhx: about 5 months ago

B&L properties - if they're looking at anything - are looking at the price of 2-bedroom units in the building across the street from me, with far lower asking prices.

Just like Central Parking LOWERED my monthly parking expense when the building across the street did.

JuiceMan: about 5 months ago

iMom, what's your point about these units staying on the market for over 300 days? Have a look at these, took me 2 minutes to find them:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/211231-coop-201-west-70th-street-lincoln-square-manhattan

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/212263-coop-80-central-park-west-lincoln-square-manhattan

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/212205-condo-120-west-72nd-street-lincoln-square-manhattan

Less than 40 days on the market. If I use your logic, the market must be humming. Making market conclusions based on a few overpriced units that aren't selling seems a bit silly to me.

stakan: about 5 months ago

steve, B&L Properties are taking a very close look at...

stevejhx: about 5 months ago

"Well steve, if you bothered to read the article, all the analysis is based upon the S&P Case/Shiller Home Price Index. Does that have your respect?"

No. Case/Shiller only includes single-family homes, and accounts for sales on a metropolitan regional area, and the NYC area goes as far north as New Haven.

"The reason for the jump is that Streeteasy has expanded their listings database to include "a bunch of new sources in Manhattan". According to one of the tech guys over at Streeteasy, "...this should be the last big change, at this point we have pretty good coverage"."

Fine by me - still shows the inventory at 8,000 , which is a 1-year supply no matter how you count it.

stakan: about 5 months ago

Plus, all these iMoms and such contradict themselves: even according to them, the owners are not in a panic rash to sell. She (they) is/are scouring the sales ads hoping (!) to find the proof of a disaster. Stupid and shameful approach.
Try this on them: iMom, next year, for various reasons, your rent will be increased 65%.

JuiceMan: about 5 months ago

LICComment, excellent post. I agree with you 100%.

LICComment: about 5 months ago

One more point on the inventories: "You may have noticed that inventory for Manhattan jumped today by just under 700 new listings, bringing total active inventory (co-ops, condos, townhouses in Manhattan excluding duplicates, FSBO's and open listings) to about 7,659. The reason for the jump is that Streeteasy has expanded their listings database to include "a bunch of new sources in Manhattan". According to one of the tech guys over at Streeteasy, "...this should be the last big change, at this point we have pretty good coverage".

iMom - this shows the danger of spouting off conclusions without a complete picture of all the facts.

LICComment: about 5 months ago

As for supply and demand, see the following: ". . . economists Joseph Gyourko, Christopher Mayer, and Todd Sinai coined the phrase “superstar cities” and posited that some lucky areas—this metropolis very much included—are simply different, possessing the right combination of “inelastic supply” and near-bottomless demand to untether them from national trends. On the supply side, New York is geographically small and decidedly finite, and the red tape required to build here is staggering. (Gyourko has calculated that the inflated values created by artificial stifling of construction cost the average New York homeowner more than $7,500 a year—a de facto “preservation tax.” Others say that number may be closer to $10,000.) Even Michael Bloomberg and Dan Doctoroff’s pro-building agenda, which includes tax breaks for developers, aggressive rezoning, and a taste for neighborhood-altering megaprojects, hasn’t really done much to pump up inventory. Despite what our own eyes tell us (“I live in Tribeca and can count 40 separate construction projects in my neighborhood right now,” says Roubini), new construction is not adding nearly enough units to glut the market. Low crime, plentiful jobs, and the resurgence of big-city sex appeal, meanwhile, have led throngs of people to want to live here and, in a huge paradigm shift, stay even after they breed. To well-heeled newcomers, our enormous rents make our enormous mortgages a relatively sane proposition, and our international character, combined with the soft dollar, also make us one of the few American cities with a global buyer pool."

I am not sure what "inventories" numbers iMom is looking at. I agree that the NYC RE market of two years ago was wildly overheated. A return to more normal inventory numbers was bound to occur. That does not mean that supply is now overwhelming demand to drive prices down significantly.
As I said before, the market now is soft and we are in a down cycle. Things aren't great. But they aren't collapsing either and those of you who make blanket uninformed statements of how recent buyers are going to lose hundreds of thousands in a big market downturn, without complete and rational analysis, are narrow-minded or shameless.

LICComment: about 5 months ago

lupus - I don't know what you do in the industry but you don't seem on top of current market events and forecasts. You seem to mock the outlook of a stronger dollar and falling oil prices over a year's time. Just this Friday, the WSJ printed the results of its recent economic survey of 55 economists. "The survey, conducted May 2-6, showed that the 53 respondents, on average, expect the price of crude to fall to about $105 by the end of next month and to about $93 by the end of the year. (Crude settled at $123.69 Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange.)" Also from the WSJ last week: "The dollar has steadily weakened since around March of 2002, and has of late been most notable for its pathetic performance against the euro and its decline to parity with the Canadian dollar.
But the expectation that the Federal Reserve will no longer be lowering rates has removed one of the supports for buying other currencies against the dollar, and analysts now forecast that the dollar may strengthen while the euro weakens in response to looser monetary policy in the euro zone." These forecasts aren't isolated and are consistent with the market data and forecasts that I have been seeing. I don't think the dollar will rise and oil will fall overnight, and oil surely could continue rising short-term, but a year is a long time for commodities markets and currencies.
As for hedge funds, one of the business lines at my firm is funds of hedge funds. I really can't discuss specific names, but there are lots of good shops that are in positive territory this year. Also from the WSJ last week: "While it is still too early for hedge-fund honchos to celebrate, the biggest winners so far this year are some of the funds that had the biggest losses over the brutal summer of 2007.
Highbridge Capital Management's $1 billion statistical-arbitrage fund, for instance, is up about 10% this year after losses of 14% in 2007, according to investors. Highbridge is the hedge-fund affiliate of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s high-profile Global Alpha hedge fund, which took a 37% drubbing last year, is up more than 7%."

iMom- With respect to the weak dollar's effect on NYC real, I actually can have it both ways. There are many factors that effect real estate prices, and demand from foreign buyers is just one. Sure, if the dollar strengthens that demand may subside, but a strong dollar would also indicate better domestic economic conditions which would benefit demand. The weak dollar is helping to mitigate the current weaker economic conditions in the U.S. for the NYC real estate market. This mitigation benefits NYC much more than other locations because foreign buyers focus on NYC.
Thanks Shamrock for pointing out how mistaken someone can be looking at some isolated listings and making broad conclusions. iMom - the point is that I am not going to take seriously people with chicken little attitudes that only look at some isolated bad news and try to tell everyone that their apartment values will collapse. You have to look objectively at the whole picture.

shamrock: about 5 months ago

iMom, I could be wrong but the building at 212 E47ths that you refer to is a building being converted from a rental and I thought elsewhere there were discussions in relation to ongoing issues with this process. The apartments I think were all listed with identical photos a long time ago before the conversion process was even started and as mentioned elsewhere there were/are problems which have delayed things (open to correction on this) and why it is still on the market

Looking at building in the same area and only a few doors away you have http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/236-east-47-street-manhattan

Recent sales in this building were about 3% below the asking price

And this 1 bed apt has just sold for 699k http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/179502-condo-236-east-47th-street-turtle-bay-manhattan after only 38 days on Streeteasy.

So does it not also depend on the building as good buildings will hold better than other buildings and yes things may slow for them as well but not as much and in this case 38 days seems good and the price seems good based on all the negativity out there

iMom: about 5 months ago

LICComment: I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. Keep in mind however, that I'm not expecting a "collapse" in RE prices. I just think that MANY properties will have to be repriced from their original levels (which were set in 2006-2007) to reflect what the current market will bear. You can call it a "write-down" of asset prices similar to what the banks did to all the illiquid paper they kept on their books at inflated, unrealistic valuations. In this case, the assets are NYC properties (instead of illiquid paper) that have been sitting on the market for hundreds of days at inflated, unrealistic valuations and the "write-down" will occur as market valuations correct downward just as they did in the financial markets.

My original beef with you was your earlier implication that "rational complete market analysis" (like yours, I assume) would conclude that RE prices would "see a growth trend" and the implication that dissenters to your view are "based on innuendo and misinformation." This implication, I felt, completely ignored all the major risks (economic and psychological) in the market that could hurt NYC RE Prices. There ARE many legitimate reasons to believe that NYC RE prices will decline over the next year and those who subscribe to this view should not be labeled as any less informed, less credible, less insightful or less intelligent than you, even if you are "someone in investment banking."

In addition, your first post mentioned that:
"the weak US dollar have kept prices from dropping sharply and should continue to keep the real estate market stable in the short-term."
But your second post argued that the Fed is:
"likely to raise rates by the end of 2008 or early 2009" which "would strengthen the dollar tremendously and quickly."
Well, LICComment, if the weak dollar helped RE prices over the last few months, how would a strengthening dollar help RE prices in the future? You can't have it both ways and both can't be beneficial to RE. A strengthening dollar might relieve commodity inflation but it would also have the effect of stifling foreign demand for NYC RE, which directly contradicts your thesis.

Furthermore, you wrote:
"don't be surprised if it (oil) is down to the $80 level a year from now."
With oil on Friday reaching $125/barrel, you seem pretty confident calling for a 36% decline in one year. If you really have that strong of a view, Mr "someone in investment banking", why not put your money where your mouth is and short oil-futures-ETF's? Unless your answer is "I already have" or "I will first-thing Monday morning" then the truth is you really don't know where oil will be in one year. But that's okay - no one does. Just don't go around acting like you do.

Also, you claim that:
"There is still more demand than supply."
If that were true, why has overall inventory increased to now over 7,600 properties? That goes against the basic law of supply and demand. If demand > supply, inventories would be going down, not up. The truth is that at current price levels, demand < supply, so inventories will accumulate until prices decline enough to create equilibrium between demand and supply. That means that prices are currently too high and will need to come down. Therefore your statement cannot be correct.

Finally, I posted an obvious and undeniable example to support my claim that there are properties that have been languishing on the market for hundreds of days (over 2-years in my example) because the sellers are out-of-touch with reality and how do you respond? You dismiss it by saying "You can't look at one isolated apartment and judge the whole market on it." How many examples would you like me to present to you? 10? 20? 100? 500? Exactly how many examples would you need to see before you accept this as legitimate evidence? I'm sorry I don't have time to list every single case. If there were some way for Streeteasy to sort listings by "number-of-days-on-market", I'm sure that you would see 1) a significant increase in time needed to sell an apartment and 2) a significant increase in the number of apartments that have been for sale for over a year.

And just for kicks, here's another example for you to dismiss - 320 days on the market and not a single price adjustment:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/92799-condo-212-east-47th-street-turtle-bay-new-york

But according to you, LICComment, none of this is anything to worry about. According to your "reasonable opinions based on rational complete market analysis," properties languishing on the market for hundreds of days is a sign of a perfectly normal housing market that needs no adjustment.

JuiceMan: about 5 months ago

Well steve, if you bothered to read the article, all the analysis is based upon the S&P Case/Shiller Home Price Index. Does that have your respect?