The Edge

bjw2103: about 3 weeks ago

cleanslate, not sure what you're referring to (haven't posted to this thread in over a month), but if anyone considers reading this board "torture," they probably shouldn't be investing in anything of considerable value. There are people here with honest, relatively unbiased opinions, and there are others with their own, fairly transparent agendas - I can weed through that stuff pretty easily. I get lots of valuable information from this board, and I sometimes am able to provide some info from my experiences to others. If I want to be a masochist, well, there's other ways.

cleanslate: about 3 weeks ago

bjw103, I'm surprised you can stomach this. If I bought within the last two years, I don't think I can possibly stand to be in this board. It's torture. Plus not sure what benefits you get reading all the negativity out here since you already bought your place...unless you're a masochist. No offense intended, BTW :)

tanker: about 3 weeks ago

Jeff Levine, Douglaston CEO, claimed 110 contracts (out of 575 units) in October. Even if that figure wasn't exaggerated (they count contracts out and not signed), it's not good.

nyc10022: about 3 weeks ago

> From what I've heard from some bankers, new developments will go rental
> before drastically reducing prices.

That story is pretty much 6 months old at this point. Hell, NYTimes RE section did a cover story on it 3 months back.

Problem is, that is waaaay too much inventory and will kill rents. Then losing lots money each month to "wait" versus selling and getting at least some of your cash back isn't going to be a good tradeoff.

dmeisterg: about 3 weeks ago

From what I've heard from some bankers, new developments will go rental
before drastically reducing prices. Anyone have thoughts on this?

stash17: about 3 weeks ago

tanker, when they start tripping their loan covenants and are forced to pay more financing costs, they will reduce to get some cash in the door. only question is when.

stash17: about 3 weeks ago

someone up above posted something about the listings in contract - I believe it was 10% sold through last June (according to the developer) and I haven't heard any updates since. Anyone have this info?

shezy121: about 3 weeks ago

On streeteasy.com, there are no listings in contract. Is that because the bldg has not updated its information to the website, becuase if they have no one in contract, that is a very bad sign. I would expect quite a few people in contract, given that its been on the market for quite some time now. Anyone know what's going on here?

tanker: about 3 weeks ago

"Decrease prices," stash? I don't think they've added that to their vocabulary yet. They're still in denial.

stash17: about 3 weeks ago

Here's an idea - DECREASE PRICES. forget the housecalls.

tanker: about 5 weeks ago

From StreetEasy.com:

"Williamsburg's Edge making house calls
The Edge condominium in Williamsburg is now making house calls. Busy prospective buyers can call the sales office to set up a meeting with two sales agents at his or her home or office for a 45-minute presentation of the building."

Do they bring pizza?

ap307: about 7 weeks ago

Steve's assertion that you shouldn't consider the tax benefits of owning vs. renting borders on the delusional.

There are tax benefit to owning - factor that into your calculations, or stop performing absurd calculations based on voodoo maths.

tanker: about 7 weeks ago

It's probably a family purchase . . . I'll do some digging and let you guys know . . .

GoingDown: about 7 weeks ago

ingenieur, you really believe that PR stunt. Who buys the best Yugo, when you can get a perfectly good used Bentley?

tanker: about 7 weeks ago

Re Ingeniuer's posting above, the sales agent has now officially lied about Douglaston's policy: they had insisted that no unit-combinations would be approved after August 1. Whoops. They've ditched that line . . .

Watch for the next steps before they start the big price cuts: they will begin covering closing costs (in spite of insisting they never would), and will start covering components of "preferred lenders'" mortgage costs, such as paying points to lock in rates today for closing in late 2009. Half-price storage units will also become free storage units.

ingenieur: about 8 weeks ago

For those interested in this development:

http://curbed.com/archives/2008/10/08/curbedwire_edge_sells_most_expensive_burg_apartment_ever_price_of_truffles_overstated.php

bjw2103: about 8 weeks ago

GoingDown, fair enough, but it's tough to take anyone too seriously when they call people "losers" for buying and write things like "read it and weep." I totally agree with you though that the neighborhood has its share of strengths and weaknesses. I happen to believe more in its strengths for the long-term, whereas others don't - that's fine; I just take issue with the ad-hominem stuff.

GoingDown: about 8 weeks ago

bjw2103: GoingDown, pretty clear you have an ax to grind here. Not sure what your problem with WB is (or the Financial District, as in the other thread - interesting pattern), but suffice it to say, if you don't like it, stay where you are. The rest of us are quite happy there, thankyouverymuch.

No axe to grind I can assure you. I just speak the truth according to me. What I said of WB is true and what I said of FIDI is equally as true, in my own opinion. I know both places well, and think they have their strengths and weaknesses, but based on a downturn that will be about 25% at least in Manhattan RE values (according to experts), the over development of WB, the credit dry up and reform that is on the way, and many other factors, it very much seems that WB was a bad investment over the last 2 years. I am not sure how that is even an opinion based on what the market looks like right now.

I think that you are confusing my being a Bear in this market with my dislike for certain areas, which is not true.

ingenieur: about 8 weeks ago

Here's a construction update:

http://curbed.com/archives/2008/10/02/construction_watch_an_exclusive_look_inside_burgs_edge.php#reader_comments

Alan65: about 9 weeks ago

IMHO there will be a drop in prices, and it may be to 50% off. But as always, location, quality, layout, view, access to mass transit, local retail, overbuilding, will all be factors. As well as if the units were introduced overpriced to start with.

My guess is 20-50% depending on a combo off all these factors.

If Edge was introduced at a reasonable price, I would estimate possible decreases from 15% to best units, to 35% for worst units. On the Water / Hip neighborhood / close enough to transit. The area made it through this latest bubble with the ability to retain its desirability. It was a hidden treasure - some people WANT to be outside the city, while close. Unlike Bed Stuy / Deeper Williamsburg. LIC is a tough call.

bjw2103: about 9 weeks ago

GoingDown, pretty clear you have an ax to grind here. Not sure what your problem with WB is (or the Financial District, as in the other thread - interesting pattern), but suffice it to say, if you don't like it, stay where you are. The rest of us are quite happy there, thankyouverymuch.

minicooper24: about 9 weeks ago

Hey people, I'm back! If you recall, I'm one of the early posters on this thread and I'm also a current contract holder at the Edge. As someone who put down a 10% deposit, I am worried about the value of my investment going down due to the veritable collapse of Wall Street. But it is not my intention to argue about the future of the NYC RE market (which, in my opinion, is pretty grim in the near-term) but to counter some of the ridiculous statements being made about Williamsburg by people who have obviously never been there. First of all, I can assure you that NOT EVERYONE, and not even 80% of the people, in Williamsburg would rather live anywhere in Manhattan. I would say that most people choose to live in Williamsburg because it is Williamsburg, and offers a unique variety of restaurants, shops, music venues, and general vibe not available elsewhere. It is most certainly not a "dump". Even if new construction condo prices were comparable (which they aren't), I would rather live in Williamsburg than the Upper East Side, Upper West Side, Midtown East, Midtown West, Chelsea, Harlem, Fidi, Murray Hill, Gramercy, and pretty much any neighborhood outside of the East Village, Noho, West Village, Nolita, Tribeca, and Soho. Also, my situation is a little unique in that I don't work in Manhattan and need to have a car, so Manhattan was not a viable choice anyway. The waterfront issue was also key for me, as I value a guaranteed, unobstructed view of the river, perhaps more than most, and there is no building (condo or co-op) in the Manhattan neighborhoods I mentioned I could get such a view, perhaps with the exception of the far, far West Village. Anyway, I just wanted to share some of my reasoning for choosing Williamsburg after a very long and deliberate search, and to dispel the notion that everyone in Williamsburg would rather live in Manhattan. I totally understand that some people don't like Williamsburg, and that's fine, but please understand that people in Williamsburg don't sit around moping because they can't afford to live in Manhattan.

And no, I am not a broker, and my job doesn't have anything to do with real-estate.

GoingDown: about 9 weeks ago

Bottom line... nothing wrong with admitting it...Williamsburg is a very poor man's Manhattan. Stop lying to yourself if you think otherwise. Who would really WANT to ride the L train to Manhattan, instead of living in Manhattan. Come on be real. And furthermore, anything in Williamsburg is in Manhattan in 10 fold including food, music, bars, everything and anything.

And BJ who cares if you bought for the long term in Williamsburg, TANKER is right, you could have still bought long term and save 25% of your money and interest if you waited until about now.

Geez, no one says the sky is falling but prices of RE sure are. And NO it does not happen overnight, RE is the last to fall. So just give it time and try to sell your awesome Williamsburg apartment in March and then let me know how many buyers are jumping at the change to live in that great cultural center of NYC.

Cheetah779902: about 9 weeks ago

I think that it may not look as polished as some areas of Manhattan, mostly uptown midtown and the much improved areas of union square, chelsea, etc, it is still a fun environment and maybe I am just an East Village, Williamsburg kind of guy but I have changed because I used to love the UES and now I kind of prefer the East Village.

I like the plethora of moderately priced restaurants, bars, etc and I get enough of the professional crowds during the week in midtown. I don't get overly excited about paying $14 a drink etc the way I used to when I first started going out in the City, in 1999.

freewilly: about 9 weeks ago

I mean granted the Edge is overpriced, I wonder why they haven't adjusted down tower 1 listings to match tower 2 if tower 2 should be an improvement and block some of tower 1's views.

freewilly: about 9 weeks ago

Is it just me or does it seems like the psf for tower 2 Northside Piers is meaningfully lower than the Edge as well as Toll Brother's own tower 1. I don't get it...

rufus: about 9 weeks ago

well, the neighborhood is still very unattractive; it will be years before it looks nice.

williamsburg still mainly caters to artists and hipsters. most finance and legal professionals i've talked to don't feel comfortable there. but maybe your preferences are very different.

Cheetah779902: about 9 weeks ago

rufus, I disagree with the two things you state, that it is a dump and that there is a lot of criminal activity there.

I live in Union Square/East Village and enjoy myself everytime I go out to Williamsburg. It's a calm relaxed environment and is becoming nicer by the day. I enjoy the many nice restaurants, bars, etc and generally like the parks and the less frenetic pace. The weekend before last I went out to look at new devs, had brunch at Juliette, then later had a couple beers at the Brooklyn Brewery...did this all with a couple friends and my fiancee. All but one of those in the group live and work in Manhattan and all of us had a good time. Don't get me wrong, I still love parts of Manhattan but the $1400/sq ft price of the places I have looked at in new devs (my pref) in manhattan are out of our price range. However, I see Williamsburg as a great option..it may not be for you but I really like it and have a great time every time I go out there.

I think its only getting better and despite a slow down, I think it will be a fun place to live for about 5-8 years.

rufus: about 9 weeks ago

what part of manhattan do you live in? what do you find so appealing about williamsburg? the place is a dump, and there's been a lot of criminal activity there lately.

Cheetah779902: about 9 weeks ago

I am an attorney and live in work in Manhattan and have not bought anything yet but am definitely considering Williamsburg. I can afford buying in Manhattan but like Williamsburg better than most areas of Manhattan and the areas in Manhattan that I like have very few new developments within my budgetary reach although frankly I would rather buy in Williamsburg in most head to head match ups in Manhattan. I do thinjk the Edge will come down a bit but I must say that you guys who are constantly screaming the sky is falling seem to find it difficult to believe that anyone who is not screaming is anything but a real estate broker. this kind of makes me think that you have an ax to grind because why would you jump to such conclusions just because someone disagreed with your rather dire predictions.

bjw2103: about 9 weeks ago

streakeasy, it's actually just over 24% from Oct 07 (and it was over 25% after the big drop on Monday), but this is nitpicking.

streakeasy: about 9 weeks ago

not quite. the dow is down 23% from peak in oct '07, but only down 18% ytd.

bjw2103: about 9 weeks ago

tanker, it's amazing that people judge other people's investments so blindly here, which they (hopefully) wouldn't do with anything else. People have many reasons for buying and there are so many individual variables in play that your assertion is laughable. Furthermore, values have yet to drop "25+%" and although that's always a possibility, I'll remind you that the Dow has already dropped by more than that.

rufus: about 9 weeks ago

tanker is right. williamsburg is a dump, but people who can't afford to live in manhattan are buying there in the hopes that the area will improve in the next five years. it's based on a total fantasy.

tanker: about 9 weeks ago

It's amazing the logic people apply to real estate, which they wouldn't apply to anything else. For example:

- "Only flippers suffer. I bought for long-term." Anyone who knew that an apartment would drop 25+% before recovering years later would obviously have chosen to rent until the drop had played out. What a rationalization! Buying at a peak is opportunity cost - it is real money.

- "Waterfront is special . . . Manhattan is an island, it's not getting any bigger . . ." By this type of logic, anything in limited supply (i.e., all real estate) only goes up in price. But if people believed it were true, they would obviously bid up the price today to the point where it couldn't go up further - in which case, it's not true.

bjw2103: about 9 weeks ago

Really? Can we stop with the condescending "sorry for your recent RE value losses" comments? It's cool that you know that much about my property without actually knowing it. Obviously there's a lot being built there, but any smart buyer knew that and took it into account when shopping around. The only people in trouble are the quick flippers - in my experience there just aren't very many in WB, but who knows? I'm not one of them - I bought a 2BR to grow into long-term. As for the L train, you should know that where there's really a problem with overcrowding is at the 1st Ave station, which is, you know, in Manhattan.

tanker: about 9 weeks ago

The commute is not bad at all - the L connects to you to every major line in Manhattan in 3-10 minutes. But buying waterfront in WB at $1000 p.s.f. is buying into a dream of what WB might someday be, not what it is. That area, right now, is a dump - the only redeeming feature being the view of Manhattan (where, as per GoingDown, 80+% of potential Edge buyers would rather be). It will take years to finish all the park space - and that's assuming that funding doesn't dry up entirely. This reminds me of Canary Wharf in London, which went bankrupt in 1992 before the boom many years later brought it back to life. Cheetah cannot possibly be serious about prices staying "flat" on already wildy pricey waterfront apartments. Manhattan prices, except at the very top end, are already falling steeply. And when I go apartment-shopping next year, rest assured I'll look there before I set foot in WB again . . .

GoingDown: about 9 weeks ago

yes last time I checked this thread said "The Edge" Sorry for your recent RE value losses. But if you really do not think they over built in WB, then we are totally on different pages. There is a MASSIVE over build going on over their with the EDGE and the other 3 towers that are next to them, let alone the smaller buildings such as the Kent. Wait until next year when they complete those projects and you can not reach into your pockets on the subway platform due to over crowding.

bjw2103: about 9 weeks ago

GoingDown - for those of us who live on the northside close to the Bedford stop, it is much less of commute than you might think. When I was looking to buy, it was really between the UWS and WB. I work near Wall St, and I can assure you the commute is shorter from WB. And I know we're talking about the Edge here, but most of the new developments and housing stock in WB is not comprised of "massive complexes."

GoingDown: about 9 weeks ago

bjw - I agree "time will tell" but you can not tell me that people who move into these massive complexes would not rather be in Manhattan. I should have said about 80% of them rather Manhattan. Yes I have not polled them all but come on, who really wants to commute from a 1.5 mil place. Come on let's be realistic.